Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire

2015 Result:
Conservative: 17626 (43.7%)
Labour: 11572 (28.7%)
Lib Dem: 963 (2.4%)
Plaid Cymru: 4201 (10.4%)
Green: 1290 (3.2%)
UKIP: 4698 (11.6%)
MAJORITY: 6054 (15%)

Category: Semi-marginal Conservative seat

Geography: Wales.

Main population centres:

Profile:

Politics:


Current MP
SIMON HART (Conservative) Born 1963. Educated at Radley College and Royal Agricultural College. Former chartered surveyor and Chief Executive of the Countryside Alliance. First elected as MP for Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South in 2010.
Past Results
2010
Con: 16649 (41%)
Lab: 13226 (33%)
LDem: 4890 (12%)
PC: 4232 (10%)
Oth: 1510 (4%)
MAJ: 3423 (8%)
2005*
Con: 12043 (32%)
Lab: 13953 (37%)
LDem: 5399 (14%)
PC: 5582 (15%)
Oth: 886 (2%)
MAJ: 1910 (5%)
2001
Con: 10811 (29%)
Lab: 15349 (42%)
LDem: 3248 (9%)
PC: 6893 (19%)
Oth: 615 (2%)
MAJ: 4538 (12%)
1997
Con: 11335 (27%)
Lab: 20956 (49%)
LDem: 3516 (8%)
PC: 5402 (13%)
Oth: 1432 (3%)
MAJ: 9621 (23%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Carmarthen West & South Pembrokeshire

Demographics
2015 Candidates
SIMON HART (Conservative) See above.
DELYTH EVANS (Labour) Born 1958, Cardiff. Educated at Ysgol Gyfun Rhydfelen and University of Wales. Management consultant, journalist and speechwriter. Contested AM for Mid and West Wales 2000-2003.
SELWYN RUNNETT (Liberal Democrat) Born 1958. Letting agent. Contested Carmarthen West and South Pembrokeshire 2011 Welsh election.
JOHN ATKINSON (UKIP) Former marines officer.
GARY TAPLEY (Green)
ELWYN WILLIAMS (Plaid) Carmarthenshire councillor.
Links
Comments - 29 Responses on “Carmarthen West & Pembrokeshire South”
  1. CON HOLD MAJ: 0.2%
    CON 36
    LAB 36
    Plaid 12
    UKIP 9
    LD 7

  2. I don’t think that’s a bad shot at it. Logically, having failed to win the seat in the Assembly election, Labour ought to fail to gain the Westminster seat too, and Simon Hart will enjoy a slight first-time incumbency boost. However, Assembly elections aren’t necessarily a good guide to Westminster ones, and I wouldn’t rule out a Labour gain yet. But the Tories are favourites.

  3. I think the Tories have a reasonable chance of defending all their Welsh seats bar Cardiff North. Of course Labour has a good chance in the Vale of Glamorgan but a required swing of 4% is hardly trivial.

  4. By-election result in Trelech ward

    Plaid Cymru – 68.3% (+33.6%)
    Independent – 20.7% (+20.7%)
    LibDems – 11% (-3.4%)

    Could see Plaid Cymru gaining this seat at assembly level.

  5. Lord Ashcroft poll for this seat:
    Con – 33% (-8)
    Lab – 29% (-4)
    Plaid – 16% (+6)
    Ukip – 14% (+11)
    LibDem – 4% (-8)

    quite surprising that there’s no real ukip surge here, could be a labour gain aswell. The poll also states that Plaid Cymru is the party which most would consider voting – 52%, which is good news for them i would think.

  6. From Ashcroft:

    All respondents, no constituency prompt:

    Con 20%
    Lab 21%
    LDem 3%
    UKIP 13%
    Plaid 11%
    Green 3%
    BNP <1%
    Other 1%
    Would not vote 11%
    Refused 5%
    Don't know 13%

    DK breakdown:

    Con 25%
    Lab 20%
    LDem 9%
    NOTA 47%

    Excl. DK/WNV/refused. Weighted by turnout and past vote:

    Con 31%
    Lab 30%
    LDem 4%
    UKIP 17%
    Plaid 13%
    Green 3%
    BNP 1%
    Other 1%

    Reallocating DK:

    Con 32%
    Lab 30%
    LDem 4%
    UKIP 16%
    Plaid 13%
    Green 3%
    BNP 1%
    Other 2%

    Constituency prompt:

    Con 21%
    Lab 21%
    LDem 3%
    UKIP 11%
    Plaid 14%
    Green 2%
    Other 1%
    Would not vote 11%
    Refused 3%
    Don't know 12%

    DK breakdown:

    Con 18%
    Lab 15%
    LDem 12%
    NOTA 55%

    Excl. DK/WNV/refused. Weighted by turnout and past vote:

    Con 32%
    Lab 29%
    LDem 3%
    UKIP 15%
    Plaid 17%
    Green 3%
    Other 1%

    Reallocating DK:

    Con 33%
    Lab 29%
    LDem 4%
    UKIP 14%
    Plaid 16%
    Green 3%
    Other 1%

  7. The Liberal Democrat candidate is Selwyn Runnett.

  8. Can there really be a person called Selwyn Runnett?

    It sounds like something out of a Trollope novel.

  9. They always get the best names (apart from mine of course). I remember in my very first local election the Liberals had 2 candidates in one ward called Conway Carmody & Torquil Stewart. But there are plenty of folk with odd names in Richmond-upon-Thames. It seemed somehow wrong when we had a council leader with the bog-standard name of John Baker not much later.

  10. There used to be a Lib Dem councillor in Maghull, a town in my borough of Sefton near Ormskirk and Kirkby called Clifford Mainey, which I always thought sounded a delightfully English name. He stood for the party in Knowsley South in 1997, getting 3, 954 votes or 8.3%.

  11. It SEEMS THAT SPEACKING TO PLAID VOTERS IN THE NORTH OF CARMARTHEN MANY ARE CONSIDERING A TACTICAL VOTE FOR LABOUR,THE FIRST TIME I BELIVE THIS HAS COME TO PASS. IF THIS HAPPENS,IT COULD MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE.

  12. Speaking of names when i was working for granada, i took a telly to a gent near abergorlech in carmarthenshire whose name was mr conway crapp.hard to beat?

  13. Conservative Hold. 1,000 majority.

  14. Close Tory hold, think 1,000 majority will probably be close to it.

    It’s a minor miracle how stubbornly the Tory vote in Wales has held up so well in Wales according to the Welsh polls, seems that UKIP are damaging Labour more than the Tories, although not by enough to damage Labour seats-wise to any large degree. Saying that, if UKIP were out of the picture I’d imagine this would be a Labour gain.

  15. Conservative majority increases to 15% – higher than in Preseli Pembrokshire.

    Any views as to why ?

    Labour losing wwc votes to UKIP or the Conservatives gaining more Welsh speaking support or both ?

  16. Perhaps previous Labour voters stayed at home and Abstained for one reason or another?

  17. The former Labour MP – Nick Ainger – had a personal vote.

  18. Steve Crabb is for In and Simon Hart is for In and one of their seats will go… DC will have to find an Association that likes a Europhile candidate…

    Anyway you cut it… a number of Welsh Tories are going to be feeling rather worried about their futures…

  19. This seat is mainly south of the Landsker Line. Welsh speaking support won’t really come into it.

  20. The point I am making is not related to Welsh speaking its related to him (DC) finding one of them a new berth probably outside Wales with an Association that is sympathetic with In.. easier said than done..

  21. Stephen Crabb is very popular with the Welsh party as Welsh Secretary so will have absolutely no problem whatsoever finding a seat. Let’s see what the final review throws up before definitely saying one of them needs something outside Wales (on the draft Hart could have gone to the newly created on paper three-way marginal Caerfyrddin, though of course he wouldn’t be guaranteed to win it and might have wanted to try his luck elsewhere).

    Also, you draw attention to the Welsh Tory MPs but the Labour MPs in the valleys are likely to have even more of a fight… and as a lot of Welsh MPs retired in 2015 only Ann Clwyd and perhaps Paul Flynn are likely to go in 2020.

  22. And the valleys aren’t short of unpopular Blairite parachutes like Chris Bryant who could easily fall foul of Momentum in being re-selected

  23. I don’t know the Tory local parties in Wales but Mr 8% is being too optimistic in general that local parties would only look at an MP/candidate’s view on the EU anyway.
    Many people are actually weighing this matter on a close margin and well understand the views of people who narrowly choose the other side.

    I understand the Lib Dems could be down to about 4 notional seats on this review, so perhaps we can get them down to 1 in 2020.

  24. Correct me if I’m wrong but wasn’t the plan for Pembrokeshire in the aborted review (and presumably something similar will be proposed this time) to create a Ceredigion and North Pembrokeshire seat which would probably remain Lib Dem due to split opposition between Plaid and Tories, and also a more compact south Pembrokeshire seat which while notionally Conservative has a lot of the Tory voting rural areas removed and Lab leaning towns from Preseli Pembrokeshire added making it much more marginal than any of the present Pembrokeshire seats.

    Thus given Hart’s greater claim on the South Pembrokeshire seat but Crabbe’s high profile role as Welsh secretary we could see a bit of battle for what is ultimately a more marginal seat than either hold presently and thus the possibility of two rebellions here on the boundary review vote? Realistically what with being a cabinet member Crabbe will probably be guarantied a seat but that surely leaves Hart’s future looking dodgy? At best a more marginal seat at worst none at all.

  25. @Rivers

    The final proposals (see here – http://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/bdy2013_wales_summary.html) were:

    Pembrokeshire South: 75.8% of Preseli Pembrokeshire, 59% of Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South (fairly safe Tory seat, Crabb would surely get it).

    Caerfyrddin: 92% of Carmarthen East and Dinefwr, 41% of Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South (three-way marginal, notionally Plaid held, Hart could contest this).

    Ceredigion and Pembrokeshire North: 100% of Ceredigion, 24.2% of Preseli Pembrokeshire, 8% of Carmarthen East and Dinefwr (would retain similar characteristics to present Ceredigion).

  26. Caerfyrddin, although three-way on paper it would probably be a Plaid gain. Most of the Plaid vote here comes from Carmarthen/ Whitland which would go to Caerfyrddin. Ceredigion would probably go Plaid as well – since Mark Williams won’t contest again (he holds a high personal vote), the libdems don’t have any footing in Pembrokeshire..and again the parts of Preseli Pembrokeshire that would go to Ceredigion are the parts that vote Plaid! This would leave Pembrokeshire as a very safe conservative seat…labour a distant second and Plaid fighting to safe their deposit..

  27. I bow to any local knowledge since I do not know the areas involved very well I’m just greatly interested in the boundary review and Wales in particular what with the massive changes involved.

    One point I’d add is that a notional majority of around 6000 in South Pembrokeshire is hardly “very safe”. It’s similar to this seats current majority (despite its much smaller electorate) and this seats considered semi marginal. I couldn’t be bothered doing the maths but at a glance were looking at a 12% majority in a winning year. That’s marginal however you cut it. I’d make the prediction that it would be a seat Labour would win next time they form a government.

  28. Predication – Easy Tory hold tonight, despite Plaid talking it up

  29. @Jack Sheldon
    ‘Pembrokeshire South: 75.8% of Preseli Pembrokeshire, 59% of Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South (fairly safe Tory seat, Crabb would surely get it).’

    That is going too far I think. This would really be the recreation of the Pembrokeshire seat that existed from 1983 to 1997. Labour did win that by 750 votes in 1992 and the seat remains very winnable for Labour given the right national circumstances. On the other hand, I do think that Labour’s performance at Westminster elections is being undermined by its long term control of the Welsh Assembly!

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