Cardiff West

2015 Result:
Conservative: 11014 (25.2%)
Labour: 17803 (40.7%)
Lib Dem: 2069 (4.7%)
Plaid Cymru: 6096 (13.9%)
Green: 1704 (3.9%)
UKIP: 4923 (11.2%)
TUSC: 183 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 6789 (15.5%)

Category: Safe Labour seat

Geography: Wales, South Glamorgan. Part of the Cardiff council area.

Main population centres: Cardiff, Creigiau, Pentyrch.

Profile: The urban part of the seat contains some upmarket housing around the Cathedral and some fashionable inner-city areas like Riverside, but is mostly made up of the large and troubled council estates of Ely and Caerau on the western edge of the city. Northwest of this is a more rural area, including the dormitory villages of Creigiau and Pentyrch.

Politics: Normally a solid Labour seat. It was held by George Thomas, the Welsh secretary who would later become Speaker of the Commons. Upon his retirement in 1983 it was briefly held by the Conservative MP Stefan Terlezki, but was gained by Rhodri Morgan in 1987. Morgan stepped down in 2001 after becoming First Minister of Wales.


Current MP
KEVIN BRENNAN (Labour) Born 1959, Cwmbran. Educated at St Albans RC High School and Oxford University. Former teacher. Cardiff councillor 1991-2001. First elected as MP for Cardiff West in 2001. Government whip 2005-2007, Under-secretary of state for children 2007-2008, Parliamentary secretary to the Cabinet Office 2008-2009, Minister of State for Further Education 2009-2010, Shadow schools minister 2010-2015. Shadow trade minister since 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 12143 (30%)
Lab: 16894 (41%)
LDem: 7186 (18%)
PC: 2868 (7%)
Oth: 1867 (5%)
MAJ: 4751 (12%)
2005*
Con: 7562 (22%)
Lab: 15729 (46%)
LDem: 6060 (18%)
PC: 4316 (12%)
Oth: 894 (3%)
MAJ: 8167 (24%)
2001
Con: 7273 (21%)
Lab: 18594 (55%)
LDem: 4458 (13%)
PC: 3296 (10%)
Oth: 462 (1%)
MAJ: 11321 (33%)
1997
Con: 8669 (22%)
Lab: 24297 (60%)
LDem: 4366 (11%)
PC: 1949 (5%)
Oth: 996 (2%)
MAJ: 15628 (39%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
JAMES TAGHDISSIAN (Conservative)
KEVIN BRENNAN (Labour) See above.
CADAN AP TOMOS (Liberal Democrat)
BRIAN MORRIS (UKIP) Educated at Newtown Technical school. Retired bank manager and underwriter.
KEN BARKER (Green)
NEIL MCEVOY (Plaid)
HELEN JONES (TUSC)
Links
Comments - 25 Responses on “Cardiff West”
  1. Rather good PC result here in yesterday’s by-election, particularly considering it is an urban seat..

    Labour Darren Williams 1,120 50.3% +3.6%
    Plaid Cymru Elizabeth Gould 773 34.7% +3.6%
    Conservative Aled Crow 107 4.8% -2.9%
    UKIP Simon Zeigler 97 4.4% +4.4%
    TUSC Joel Beer 70 3.1% +0.4%
    Lib Dems Sian Donne 58 2.6% -1.2%

  2. They held this ward prior to the 2012 local elections

  3. Is there a nest of Welsh speakers in this constituency>?

  4. I think perhaps there is a bit of one associated with S4C

  5. As I used to live here, but am now in Kent, perhaps people could help me by posting WHICH ward has had a by-election.

    It is nice to see some comments for this seat. Days are changed since 1983-1987, when Cardiff West was a key marginal.

  6. I see from the Cardiff City Council site (with some difficulty) that the by-election that Antiochian reports was in Riverside, which is the part of this seat nearest the City Centre. It is hardly surprising that Labour wins in this inner city area. But there has been a history of Plaid Cymru support here too, in part because a fair few of the poorer voters are disaffected with all three major UK parties, and parly because there is a politically active Welsh community around Pontcanna, for instance media people working for S4C or the BBC Welsh services,

    The people in this seat are politically savvy. I would think that just about all the LibDem voters will have voted Plaid given that the LibDems have no hope in this ward (and come to that the Tories haven’t done either for a long time now).

    The by-election is pretty much what one would expect given the demographics of the area.

  7. Canton Ward By-election result: Labour 1201, Plaid Cymru 972, Cons 381, Green 148, TUSC 101, LibDem 80. Swing: 10% Labour to Plaid Cymru.

  8. Canton used to be a very much English speaking ward; but is increasingly Welsh speaking in part because it now has a Welsh language primary school. This has been a poor area for the LibDems for as long as most of us can remember. Again, the days since this was a Conservative/Labour marginal are gone.

    The by-election result is in line with what one would expect given the demographics of the area.

    Many of the Plaid voters will vote Labour tactically at the General Election to keep the Conservatives out.

  9. I was in this seat a few days ago and saw a Liberal Democrat leaflet in my brothers house in Saint Fagans there was no mention of europe. It was just a local newsletter. Apparently it is the first one they have received.

  10. First one from the LDs or first one in general?

  11. Every vote counts, but building up support in St. Fagans is hardly the way to win this seat.

  12. Labour hold. 10,000 majority

  13. local by-election result here in Pentyrch
    Con 40% (-14%)
    Plaid 39% (+27%)
    Lab 17% (-12%)
    Coupled with a decent Plaid showing in the general election (and an unpopular AM in Mark Drakeford as the current Health Secreatary), could this seat prove to be more interesting than first thought in the assembly elections?

  14. The proposed boundary changes for this Westminster seat are comparatively moinor by Wellsh standards. Addition of Grangetown to this seat will make it safer for Labour.

  15. I’m not sure Grangetown is safe for Labour.

    There’s a council by election coming up and regular all up council elections next year so that might be a sign.

    Plaid had a massive surge in support in the coterminous Cardiff West seat in the Welsh Assembly election but a lot of Plaid’s negativity was targeted at the incumbent AM who was the health minister but isn’t anymore and is likely to stand down next time anyway so Plaid will need a different strategy come 2020/2021.

  16. Plaid AM Neil McAvoy has been suspended from the Group, which makes the Conservatives the Opposition with 11 AMs compared to Plaid’s 10.

    He’s also been barred from being a City Councillor for one month after investigation found that he bullied a female council employee.

    Does anyone have any local knowledge re this saga? As a quick look online reveals a series of controversies. The only one – without taking sides – I dislike is that he pledged to stand down as a Cllr when he became an AM, then broke this pledge and so receives £80k pa from the taxpayer for both roles.

  17. Plaid secured more votes than Labour across cardiff west for the first time. Neil macevoy got the highest vote of any councillor in wales..

  18. Former Mp and AM for this seat Rhordi Morgan has died aged 77. RIP.

  19. Sorry CymruMark.

    McEvoy got c2,500 votes a Tory in Rhiwbina got c3,500.

    Plaid did just beat Labour in terms of raw votes across Cardiff West but if you discount McEvoy’s 2,500 votes they fall well short. Very much a case of voting for the man not the party I’m sure.

  20. Neil McAvoy AM has been suspended by the Plaid Group (again).

    This time due to his support for the Right to Buy council houses – or rather his opposition to Plaid’s opposition to the policy.

  21. They say he’s nigh impossible to work with. He can’t stand for any vacant party position now anyway.

  22. I met an MP and organiser from Cardiff who described the guy as a sexist misognistic pig

  23. He really is a marmite character.

    This is the second time he’s been suspended as a member of Plaid’s Assembly group as well as being suspended as a Councillor earlier this year.

    My biggest problem with him is his general demeanour and attitude. He comes across as a mixture of a wide boy and a thug.

    When he was first suspended as a councillor earlier this year he brought a load of his supporters to Plaid’s conference to cheer him on as he entered the building.

    There’s no timeframe on his current suspension and I’d imagine that many in the party will be working o a way to get him kicked out of the party too.

    Plaid are now down to ten AMs in the Assembly (and that includes Elin Jones who’s the Presiding Officer/Speaker).

  24. @BARNABY MARDER
    Do you have a copy of Plaid’s leadership rules?

    I’d be intrigued as to what the wording of their leadership election is.

    Do there rules explicitly say that you need to be a member of Plaid’s Assembly Group to stand?

    It would be horrendously funny if he were able to stand for leader given the fact that a) he’s a party member and b) an Assembly member.

    Obviously there is no vacancy, but we are getting close to one.

  25. Just spotted this one from Feb:

    Ely ward by-election:

    PC 831
    Lab 779
    Con 271
    LD 46

    PC Gain from Labour.

    12% swing Lab > PC.

    Ex PC AM McEvoy apparently campaigned for the PC candidate.

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