Cardiff North

2015 Result:
Conservative: 21709 (42.4%)
Labour: 19572 (38.3%)
Lib Dem: 1953 (3.8%)
Plaid Cymru: 2301 (4.5%)
Green: 1254 (2.5%)
UKIP: 3953 (7.7%)
Christian: 331 (0.6%)
Others: 78 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 2137 (4.2%)

Category: Marginal Conservative seat

Geography: Wales, South Glamorgan. Part of the Cardiff council area.

Main population centres: Cardiff, Coryton, Tongwynlais.

Profile: Cardiff North covers the affluent residential suburbs of northern Cardiff, taking in places like Heath, Lisvane, pleasant villages that have become subsumed into Cardiff like Rhiwbina and Whitchurch (home of the Welsh Conservative party) and to the north a smattering of country parks and tourist villages like Coryton and Tonywynlais.

Politics: This is is a strongly middle class area, largely Conservative at a local level, since 2007 at the Assembly level and at Westminster from 2010. Until the landslide of 1997 it was held by the Conservatives at every election but 1966. At the 2005 election Catherine Taylor-Dawson, standing for George Weiss`s Rainbow Dream Ticket party in all four Cardiff seats, managed to secure only a single vote, the record low for a Parliamentary contest.

Current MP
CRAIG WILLIAMS (Conservative) Former Parliamentary researcher. Cardiff councillor since 2008. Contested Cardiff West 2007, 2011 Assembly election, Cardiff South and Penarth by-election 2012. First elected as MP for Cardiff North in 2015.
Past Results
Con: 17860 (37%)
Lab: 17666 (37%)
LDem: 8724 (18%)
PC: 1588 (3%)
Oth: 1792 (4%)
MAJ: 194 (0%)
Con: 16561 (37%)
Lab: 17707 (39%)
LDem: 8483 (19%)
PC: 1936 (4%)
Oth: 673 (1%)
MAJ: 1146 (3%)
Con: 13680 (32%)
Lab: 19845 (46%)
LDem: 6631 (15%)
PC: 2471 (6%)
Oth: 613 (1%)
MAJ: 6165 (14%)
Con: 16334 (34%)
Lab: 24460 (50%)
LDem: 5294 (11%)
PC: 1201 (2%)
Oth: 1199 (2%)
MAJ: 8126 (17%)

2015 Candidates
CRAIG WILLIAMS (Conservative) Parliamentary researcher. Cardiff councillor since 2008. Contested Cardiff West 2007, 2011 Assembly election, Cardiff South and Penarth by-election 2012.
MARI WILLIAMS (Labour) Born Cardiff. Educated at Whitchurch High School and University College London. Teacher.
ELIZABETH CLARK (Liberal Democrat) Cardiff councillor since 2008.
ETHAN WILKINSON (UKIP) Born Cheltenham. Educated at Cardiff University. Student.
RUTH OSNER (Green) Educated at Open University.
ELIN WALKER JONES (Plaid) Consultant Clinical Psychologist and University lecturer. Gwynedd councillor.
JEFF GREEN (Christian) Hotelier. Contested Brecon and Radnorshire 2010.
SHAUN JENKINS (Alter Change) Educated at Radyr Comprehensive.
Comments - 139 Responses on “Cardiff North”
  1. My word if Labour can’t take this it will be a very long night for them.

  2. It seems the Conservatives need a lot of luck to win this seat, the recent polling suggests Labour will take this seat comfortably from the Cons. If I remember correctly this seat is the least safe Con seat, though nothing is ever guaranteed. We all know how volatile politics can be, with shadow MPs ready to oust their leader who does not appeal to the majority of Labour voters, Cameron under pressure with numerous problems I think anything can happen. Bring on the live TV debates – I don’t belong to a political party as such so I’m still undecided and it seems my vote could be quite important here.

  3. Ethan R Wilkinson (a Businessman) is the UKIP candidate for Cardiff North

  4. i wonder about this seat. It’s very difficult to see the Tories actually keeping it, but at the same time they’re doing pretty solidly in Welsh polls (and improving in British-wide ones as Labour flounder somewhat) and the Labour-led Cardiff council is in a huge mess, the ruling Labour group are an absolute shambles.

    It might be closer than first thought. But Labour should still win.

  5. LD candidate is Elizabeth Clark, the final LD selection in Wales:

  6. Labour Gain. 1,500-2,000 majority.

  7. Labour gain, 2700 majority.

  8. Labour gain 1700 majority

  9. I’m hearing from canvass returns that Labour is going to win this seat comfortably at the moment LibDems being sqeezed.

  10. CON win

  11. Con by a whisker

  12. This is the first election I considered not voting at all (and I’m 57) but decided to cast a vote in order to keep one party out. This is not democracy! There are parties I would gladly give my vote to but without PR I feel the majority of people, like me, will be voting for the party they despise least.

  13. Labour miss out here too….

  14. I got the mickey taken out of me in this thread for suggesting that this could be a CON hold.

    Doubters please bow in front of me šŸ™‚

  15. Must have been a different thread but Barnabay def had a go!

  16. Something very very wrong and disturbing has happened.

    FFS oust Ed and elect Dan Jarvis as the new leader or something.

  17. Full Result:

    Con 21,709 42.4%
    Lab 19,572 38.3%
    UKIP 3.953 7.7%
    PC 2,301 4.5%
    LDem 1,953 3.8%
    Green 1,254 2.5%
    Other 409 0.8%

    Majority 2,137 Swing 1.7% to Conservative

    Another strong Conservative hold.

  18. Big question for LAB Neil is do they go to the left to shore up votes from the SNP, Greens etc or go further to the right to get the Blair style Labour of the late 90’s?

    There will be a lot of naval gazing in Labour over the next few weeks

  19. UKIP seem to have damaged Labour in Wales.

    I know many people who’ll be amazed that Rhyl now has a Tory MP.

    Another swing to Cons in Lembit’s old seat.

    Brecon & Radnor gain too.

    This seat in Cardiff has surprised me most though.

  20. Better than I thought just felt that there is slow drift to the Tories in Wales.

  21. I wonder if UKIP took votes EQUALLY from Lab and CON.

    Or, if more previous Lab voters actually voted UKIP.

    Or if Daily Mail readers were influenced by their tactical voting chart and advice?

  22. Lancs Observer, Have you been to other inland parts of Vale of Clwyd, or have you been to Prestatyn?

    Vale of Clwyd is a very pleasant place to live.

  23. Hi Dinbych – I think that we both deserve a pint for our predictions – !!!! :-). As posted on another thread, I have access via a friend to Tory party canvas return data and so my predictions came with a lot of help – !!!!

    @ Lancs Observer – I used to live in Dyserth and Rhuddlan and Prestatyn – it’s a posh area. Also, many parts of Cardiff North are very posh indeed.

    The Torfaen result was interesting, along with Alyn and Deeside, in that had UKIP and the Tory vote been combined as one, then Labour would have lost

  24. Only in 1983 have there been more Welsh Tories elected to Westminster than on Thursday. The new tally of eleven was equalled in 1979.

  25. Rather a close run thing here for the Tories yesterday,,

    Cardiff CC, Pentyrch ā€“ 30th June 2015

    Conservative 561 [40.5%; -12.5%]
    Plaid Cymru 543 [39.2%; +26.7%]
    Labour 234 [16.9%; -13.4%]
    Independent 24 [1.7%; +1.7%]
    Green 22 [1.6%; -1.3%]
    LD Cadan ap Tomos 10 [0.7%; -0.9%]
    Majority: 18
    Turnout: 49.9%
    Conservative Hold
    Percentage change since 2012

  26. Except that Pentrych ward is in Cardiff West

  27. DD & Neil – yes & yes, they are, but Rhyl clearly isn’t.

    It’s rare for such an extreme example to be in a seat that returns a Tory MP, but of course it happened in the Thatcher landslides.

    Blackpool is another example of a seaside town down on its luck, with extremes.

  28. ‘Vale of Clwyd is a very pleasant place to live.’

    It#s quite a mixed bag – making it an interesting seat

    The countryside – based around the Clwydian range – is very pleasant – but Rhyl is arguably the most run-down town in North Wales, Denbigh is very old fashioned and like most UK seaside resorts, Prestatyn has gone downhill in recent decades

    Notwithstanding their win in 2015, the Tories used to be much stronger in this part of Wales than they are now. It would have almost certainly stuck with them in 1966 and 1974

  29. Except it didn’t – Tories failed to keep / win this seat in 1966, though not again until 1997.

  30. Llanishen by-election, 21.11.19:

    Cons 1,566 43% up 6.3%
    Lab 1,254 35% down 1.2%
    LD 387 11% up 3%
    PC 209
    Green 138
    Ind 59

    Cons Gain from Lab

  31. Figures don’t quite make sense as the changes imply a very marginal Cons win last time, 36.7% to 36.2%.

    Definitely a gain rather than hold? – or are some of those change %s wrong?

  32. Some insight from ‘Chris in Cardiff’:

    “No UKIP candidate this time round and pretty much all their votes went to the Conservatives and this pretty much accounts for their majority.

    The previous Labour councillor had a tiny majority which only existed at all because of his own high profile; the Labour vote dropped by about 1%. The other 3 councillors in the seat are all Conservative; this is natural Tory territory and they won back a seat they should normally hold

    In terms of the Parliamentary seat I think this is probably good news for Labour as the Brexit Party are standing and the sitting Labour MP is way more popular than the council; furthermore the Tory candidate is a Muslim and Iā€™d sadly expect him to suffer from racism among potential supporters”

  33. It was a Cons Gain.

    In fact there were 3: one each in England, Scotland & Wales.

    Moray saw the Tory share rise by 9% and the SNP’s fall by 2%.

  34. The Lib Dem candidate here has endorsed tactical voting

  35. YouGov MRP have this as a comfortable Lab hold (as do.the bookies), so not sure how necessary this is.

  36. Who knows. My welsh Labour freind thinks it be a tory gain (while Gower will be a hold). It does feel the kind of seat Labour will hold – strongly remain

  37. I’ve heard (from both Lab & Con) that they expect Con gains in Wales – but all but one were in N Wales and not this seat.

  38. Gower or Bridgend for the southern welsh seat.

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