South East Cambridgeshire

2015 Result:
Conservative: 28845 (48.5%)
Labour: 9013 (15.1%)
Lib Dem: 12008 (20.2%)
Green: 3047 (5.1%)
UKIP: 6593 (11.1%)
MAJORITY: 16837 (28.3%)

Category: Very safe Conservative seat

Geography: Eastern, Cambridgeshire. Parts of South Cambridgeshire and East Cambridgeshire council areas.

Main population centres: Ely, Burwell, Fulbourn, Isleham, Linton, Milton, Soham, Waterbeach.

Profile: This covers the rural areas between Cambridge and Newmarket. The main population centres are the Cathedral city of Ely, one of the smallest cities in England, and the town of Soham, now sadly best known for the murder of two schoolgirls by a local school caretaker in 2002. It is an area of agricultural fenland, dotted with dormitory villages for nearby Cambridge. The west of the seat runs right up to the suburbs of Cambridge and includes part of Cambridge airport and the technolology and biotech hub of Cambridge Science village.

Politics: The seat has been held by the Conservative party since its creation in 1983, initially by the former foreign secretary Francis Pym, but for most of its existence by James Paice who retired in 2015.

Current MP
LUCY FRAZER (Conservative) Educated at Cambridge University. Barrister. First elected as MP for Cambridgeshire South East in 2015.
Past Results
Con: 27629 (48%)
Lab: 4380 (8%)
LDem: 21683 (38%)
UKIP: 2138 (4%)
Oth: 1772 (3%)
MAJ: 5946 (10%)
Con: 26374 (47%)
Lab: 11936 (21%)
LDem: 17750 (32%)
MAJ: 8624 (15%)
Con: 22927 (44%)
Lab: 13714 (26%)
LDem: 13937 (27%)
UKIP: 1308 (3%)
MAJ: 8990 (17%)
Con: 24397 (43%)
Lab: 15048 (26%)
LDem: 14246 (25%)
Oth: 278 (0%)
MAJ: 9349 (16%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

2015 Candidates
LUCY FRAZER (Conservative) Educated at Cambridge University. Barrister.
HUW JONES (Labour)
JONATHAN CHATFIELD (Liberal Democrat) Contested South East Cambridgeshire 2010.
Comments - 65 Responses on “Cambridgeshire South East”
  1. May is actually Spring…. who cares if they “crash in summer” just as long as they challenge in May!

  2. The 2014 electorate of this seat was 84,319.

  3. Interesting.

    Perhaps the Tories will go over 30,000 here.
    I still think the Lib Dems will come second – they still have a presence in Ely and some other areas.

    Real shame that James Paice is going. Very unfairly sacked from the Government.

  4. Ever since this seat was created in 1983 the boundary commission has failed to keep the electorate within 10 or even 15% of the average. The solution would have been to start off with it well below the average but they’re not allowed to take that into account except as a minor consideration.

  5. Conservative Hold. 10,000 maj.

  6. The Lib Dems have now fallen right back here, and all the good progress Jonathan Chatfield had made in 2005 and 2010 has now been undone because of the national result just looking at the vote share changes.

  7. The Lib Dems did do quite well here I thought in 2005 and especially 2010, but their fallback this time suggests to me that their chances of just getting this even semi-marginal again in the future will be slim.

  8. When you compare this seat to the rest of the country, the Lib Dems actually did very well! Holding 20% and second place is not to be sniffed at given the scale of the national meltdown.

  9. If the result had been like most of us expected, this is what most of the rural Con-held, LD-second seats would have looked like. Unfortunately for the Lib Dems, it wasn’t.

  10. Agreed with both comments. The Tories didn’t really move that much in vote share at all here- it was just a Lib Dem vote decrease a little bit above the national average that delivered them the massively increased majority they actually got here. Indeed, given the Lib Dems’ impressive above-average performances in this seat in the last few elections their vote share decrease does look a bit deceptive- perhaps they might be in with a shout here one day if things improve for them in the dim and distant future?

  11. I’ve posted on the South Cambridgeshire thread yesterday, but those comments are probably equally applicable here:

    The Mayoral and local elections suggest that this should be a realistic LibDem target, as the South Cambs area as a whole was very close overall between them and the Tories. There were particularly strong LE performances for the LibDems in many of the wards closest to Cambridge.

  12. In the County Electoral Divisions that make up the constituency ( there are a couple of small overlaps) I calculate the Tories had roughly 13,800 votes and the LDs roughly 11,600. A good result for the LDs but given the fact they nearly always do better in local elections not good enough. It also seems to be the case that the LD appeal to Remain voters is not working.
    Against that I lived in the constituency for a while up to and after the 2015 GE and in my experience Lucy Frazer did not have a very high local profile.

  13. Thanks for that, Orielensis.

    I think that the Lib Dems performance for South Cambridgeshire in the County Council elections was better both in relation to the Tory vote and overall vote share then has been in any of the last three County elections: 2005, 2009 and 2013. I’d guess that the Tories owe their lead in this constituencies to the East Cambs wards, though. I’d be interested to know what the equivalent figures were for the South Cambridgeshire constituency.

    I’d still expect a large swing to the LDs here, probably returning the constituency to a similar result to that of 2010. There are only three candidates standing here, BTW.

  14. Ely South ward is a Lib Dem gain from the Tories. The Tories were almost caught for second place by Labour too. LD 527 C 411 Lab 384

  15. Lucy Frazer has been appointed Solicitor General.

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