Cambridge

2015 Result:
Conservative: 8117 (15.7%)
Labour: 18646 (36%)
Lib Dem: 18047 (34.9%)
Green: 4109 (7.9%)
UKIP: 2668 (5.2%)
Others: 187 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 599 (1.2%)

Category: Ultra-marginal Labour seat

Geography: Eastern, Cambridgeshire. Most of the Cambridge council area.

Main population centres: Cambridge.

Profile: Covers almost all of the City of Cambridge. While Cambridge is best known for its university, it is also an important regional and retail centre and a home to much hi-tech industry and engineering. Around one in five of the adult population are in full time education and the seat has an well above average proportion of graduates, with just under half of adult residents holding an undergraduate degree.

Politics: All three of the main parties are competitive here, it was held for the Conservatives by the historian Robert Rhodes James until 1992, then was a Labour seat for thirteen years before, like many university seats, swinging strongly to the Liberal Democrats in 2005. The 2005 Lib Dem victor, David Howarth, served for only one term before successfully passing his seat onto Julian Huppert. In 2015 it was regained by Labour.


Current MP
DANIEL ZEICHNER (Labour) Educated at Trinity School and Cambridge University. Former trade union officer. South Norfolk councillor 1995-2003. Contested Mid Norfolk 1997, 2001, 2005, Cambridge 2010. First elected as MP for Cambridge in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 12829 (26%)
Lab: 12174 (24%)
LDem: 19621 (39%)
GRN: 3804 (8%)
Oth: 1702 (3%)
MAJ: 6792 (14%)
2005*
Con: 7193 (17%)
Lab: 14813 (34%)
LDem: 19152 (44%)
GRN: 1245 (3%)
Oth: 1166 (3%)
MAJ: 4339 (10%)
2001
Con: 9829 (23%)
Lab: 19316 (45%)
LDem: 10737 (25%)
GRN: 1413 (3%)
Oth: 1541 (4%)
MAJ: 8579 (20%)
1997
Con: 13299 (26%)
Lab: 27436 (53%)
LDem: 8287 (16%)
Oth: 1055 (2%)
MAJ: 14137 (28%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
CHAMALI FERNANDO (Conservative) Barrister. Sought Liberal Democrat nomination for London mayor in 2007 before defecting to the Conservatives in 2009.
DANIEL ZEICHNER (Labour) Educated at Trinity School and Cambridge University. Trade union officer. South Norfolk councillor 1995-2003. Contested Mid Norfolk 1997, 2001, 2005, Cambridge 2010.
JULIAN HUPPERT (Liberal Democrat) Born 1978, Cambridge. Educated at The Perse School and Cambridge University. Research scientist. Cambridgeshire county councillor 2001-2009. Contested Huntingdon 2005. MP for Cambridge 2010 to 2015. One of relatively few scientists in the House of Commons, Huppert has been prominent as a defender of science, evidence-based policies and as an opponent of pseudoscience.
PATRICK O`FLYNN (UKIP) Born 1965, Cambridge. Educated at Cambridge University. Former Daily Express journalist. Contested MEP for Eastern region since 2014.
RUPERT READ (Green) Educated at Oxford University. Academic. Norwich councillor 2004-2011. Contested Eastern region 2009, 2014 European elections, Norwich North 2009 by-election.
KEITH GARRETT (Remove the Politicians)
Links
Comments - 958 Responses on “Cambridge”
  1. The Green vote seems to have held up well, in the locals at least. The seat may hinge on where that goes. One thing to bear in mind is that actually, despite on the surface having more in common with Labour, the Greens have had more success working tactically with the Lib Dems. In an area so strongly opposed to Brexit, and rather in favour of voting and democratic reforms, there may be as many “mangoes” as “watermelons” in this constituency, and it would be oversimplifying to merely add the rather chunky Green vote share onto Labour’s total.

  2. interesting local race. that’s what i like about elections, the fact that it boils often down to local dynamics and tight, exciting fights.

    lib dems have to be favourite here.

  3. Bookies odds strongly favour the Lib Dems here.

  4. Yes, the bookies make the Lib Dems 1/4 in Cambridge.

    However, I would repeat that they were about 2% behind Labour in the County Council elections in the Cambridge constituency – the difference to the result for the City as a whole (as quoted above) is the Queen Edith’s ward, which is the South Cambs constituency.

    Conversely, there is good reason to think that the Lib Dems did at least as well in the South East Cambridgeshire constituency on 4th May, looking at the results for the County council elections and/or mayoral election.

    The bookies are offering a very generous 25/1 for the LibDems to make a gain there – they would need a 14% swing.

  5. One of the big reasons why the Lib Dems do so much better in local elections in target seats than in General Elections is that the power of incumbency is extremely high in local elections, particularly when councillors work hard as Lib Dem councillors usually do.. In Cambridge I suspect the Labour councillors work hard and hold more divisions in the constituency than the Lib Dems. Hence they survived a big swing to the Lib Dems compared to previous local elections.. I have a feeling that in this particular seat the normal rule of Lib Dems doing better in local elections may be broken…

  6. Interesting to see the difference between the county results and the mayoralty in cambridge I suspect Andrew111 has the answer to that above though

  7. There wasn’t really a great deal of difference between the County Council and mayoral election results in Cambridge.

    Mayoral
    Lib Dem 37%
    Lab 34%
    Con 15%
    Green 8%
    Others 6%

    County Council
    Lib Dem 37%
    Lab 37%
    Con 15%
    Green 8%
    Others3%

    Looking at both with the Queen Edith’s ward excluded to reflect the constituency boundaries, Labour led by 700 votes for the council, and the LibDems by just over 100 votes in the mayoral.

    http://www.cambridgeelections.org.uk/resfrm17.htm

    One real surprise was that the Tories fared just as badly in the Mayoral election where of course the overall contest was always going to come down to them and the LibDems.

  8. Labour are doing better in local government. They got 22% in Scotland when the latest Westminster voting intention polls place them on 13 to 18%.

    I think it is the Corbyn factor. This is why Labour did better at at the local elections than polls will indicate for May.

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