2015 Result:
Conservative: 8117 (15.7%)
Labour: 18646 (36%)
Lib Dem: 18047 (34.9%)
Green: 4109 (7.9%)
UKIP: 2668 (5.2%)
Others: 187 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 599 (1.2%)

Category: Ultra-marginal Labour seat

Geography: Eastern, Cambridgeshire. Most of the Cambridge council area.

Main population centres: Cambridge.

Profile: Covers almost all of the City of Cambridge. While Cambridge is best known for its university, it is also an important regional and retail centre and a home to much hi-tech industry and engineering. Around one in five of the adult population are in full time education and the seat has an well above average proportion of graduates, with just under half of adult residents holding an undergraduate degree.

Politics: All three of the main parties are competitive here, it was held for the Conservatives by the historian Robert Rhodes James until 1992, then was a Labour seat for thirteen years before, like many university seats, swinging strongly to the Liberal Democrats in 2005. The 2005 Lib Dem victor, David Howarth, served for only one term before successfully passing his seat onto Julian Huppert. In 2015 it was regained by Labour.

Current MP
DANIEL ZEICHNER (Labour) Educated at Trinity School and Cambridge University. Former trade union officer. South Norfolk councillor 1995-2003. Contested Mid Norfolk 1997, 2001, 2005, Cambridge 2010. First elected as MP for Cambridge in 2015.
Past Results
Con: 12829 (26%)
Lab: 12174 (24%)
LDem: 19621 (39%)
GRN: 3804 (8%)
Oth: 1702 (3%)
MAJ: 6792 (14%)
Con: 7193 (17%)
Lab: 14813 (34%)
LDem: 19152 (44%)
GRN: 1245 (3%)
Oth: 1166 (3%)
MAJ: 4339 (10%)
Con: 9829 (23%)
Lab: 19316 (45%)
LDem: 10737 (25%)
GRN: 1413 (3%)
Oth: 1541 (4%)
MAJ: 8579 (20%)
Con: 13299 (26%)
Lab: 27436 (53%)
LDem: 8287 (16%)
Oth: 1055 (2%)
MAJ: 14137 (28%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

2015 Candidates
CHAMALI FERNANDO (Conservative) Barrister. Sought Liberal Democrat nomination for London mayor in 2007 before defecting to the Conservatives in 2009.
DANIEL ZEICHNER (Labour) Educated at Trinity School and Cambridge University. Trade union officer. South Norfolk councillor 1995-2003. Contested Mid Norfolk 1997, 2001, 2005, Cambridge 2010.
JULIAN HUPPERT (Liberal Democrat) Born 1978, Cambridge. Educated at The Perse School and Cambridge University. Research scientist. Cambridgeshire county councillor 2001-2009. Contested Huntingdon 2005. MP for Cambridge 2010 to 2015. One of relatively few scientists in the House of Commons, Huppert has been prominent as a defender of science, evidence-based policies and as an opponent of pseudoscience.
PATRICK O`FLYNN (UKIP) Born 1965, Cambridge. Educated at Cambridge University. Former Daily Express journalist. Contested MEP for Eastern region since 2014.
RUPERT READ (Green) Educated at Oxford University. Academic. Norwich councillor 2004-2011. Contested Eastern region 2009, 2014 European elections, Norwich North 2009 by-election.
KEITH GARRETT (Remove the Politicians)
Comments - 977 Responses on “Cambridge”
  1. Lab 29,032 (52%)
    LD 16,371 (29%)
    Con 9,133 (16%)

    Good to re-read the lengthy local “expert” opinion above saying it might be even closer than the 1% majority last time…

  2. awful result for the LDs here, who will no doubt improve in the next election but won’t threaten, i suspect seats like this is where Farron’s remarks about homosexuality etc went down like a led baloon.

  3. Speaking as a Lib Dem this was the single most heartbreaking result of the night from my perspective. The fight was certainly bitter here, but I think it was mostly an impression that Labour was in some way the “more anti-Tory” vote more than a vote against the Lib Dems or motivated by eg fees. I think both here and nationally the Lib Dems struggled to get positive policy messages out, and in Cambridge that really hurts you, doubly so given Zeichner’s Europhile stance which hampered any chance of my party’s Brexit line sinking in.

    We’ll be back, certainly, though I suspect we might not win this and similar university seats until such time as Labour get into government again – they have a massive structural advantage simply in being untarnished by actual decision-making processes, which is hard for us to overcome.

  4. James Baillie, your own party enjoyed the advantage of “being untarnished by actual decision-making processes” for far more years, and some would say they then made a hash of it when that long, long period ended…… odd that you overlook Labour’s years in power, 1997-2010.

  5. I don’t at all overlook those years – that’s the point I’m making, as that’s when we actually took Cambridge and seats like it. I think University seats, left-leaning and with high population churn, are perhaps less forgiving than others of mistakes made in government (and I’d agree we made a hash of government and might use some rather stronger language than that to describe some of the decision making involved!) Since 2010 the aspects of Labour policy that grate worse in places like Cambridge have been fairly invisible, since they’re also things that the Tories would never countenance implementing. Miliband and Corbyn both successfully managed to carve out a moral high-ground strategy that has been very successful in seats like this one; Labour haven’t really been tested on immigration, civil liberties, or even Brexit, and have managed to get liberal-leaning MPs in seats like this who can fend off questions via their personal record. It’s proving a good opposition strategy, but it’s one that may have problems if it comes into contact with the business of government.

  6. Rod Cantrill has been selected as the Lib Dem candidate for the next election:

  7. Strong results for Labour in the local elections here,

    They even won Trumpington ward which was until recently the last Tory ward in Cambridge for the first time ever.

  8. Petersfield (Cambridge) result:

    LAB: 47.9% (-10.6)
    LDEM: 36.4% (+16.2)
    GRN: 9.4% (-3.1)
    CON: 6.3% (-2.5)

    Labour HOLD.

  9. Baroness Trumpington has died.

    Much like Jacqui Smith a few months ago, it’s a testament to her character that there hasn’t been any of the partisan nastiness that there often is when a politician dies.

  10. Do you mean Tessa Jowell? I can quite assure you that there would be quite a few partisan swipes if Jacqui Smith died.

  11. Oops. Sorry Tessa.

  12. Anyone who has read Alan Clark’s diaries would see that Tom King is a bit of a pompous arse, Trumpington’s sticking two fingers up at him seemed a suitable gesture.

    She was the last surviving famous member of the old guard Tory patrician elite that dominated Cambridge politics for generations, after Robert Rhodes James dies about 20 years ago. The Tories barely scrape 20% of the vote here now.

  13. David Cameron pays a short, slightly humorous tribute to Baroness Trumpington:

    “So very sad to hear that Baroness Trumpington has passed away. She was one of a kind – they simply don’t make politicians like that anymore. She will be sorely missed in Westminster but long remembered for her outstanding ability and great humour. RIP Trumpers.”

    It’s easy to forget how much more relaxed and eloquent Cameron was compared with dour, clunky May.

  14. David Cameron was arguably TOO relaxed.

  15. Yeah. I have a hard time giving him too much credit for anything after the Brexit balls up, but he always spoke well. Very clear and articulate. Not many left in the Commons who are anywhere close to his level in that regard.

  16. It’s easy to forget how much more relaxed and eloquent Cameron was compared with dour, clunky May.’

    Very much so

    He was also considerably more intelligent – which i think is beginning to become clear

  17. Though I dont think May is stupid and it wasn’t very clever calling that referendum

  18. In hindsight, yes it was foolish. But I didn’t bad an eyelid at the time, indeed, I thought such a move would put the ERG back in their place once remain won comfortably, an outcome that would have benefited both the Tories and Britain as a whole. Feels wrong to chastise him for a bad judgement call which I agreed with at the time.

  19. May’s not stupid at all – her understanding of policy detail – something many front line politicians slip up on – is very sound indeed

    She just lacking in charisma and the ability to think on her feet – two things the likes of Cameron and Blair had and something that is essential in today’s political world

    It was Cameron’s over-confidence – some would say arrogance – that caused hum to call the EU vote.

    But, he had played major parts in the anti AV campaign, anti independent Scotland and the Tory general election campaign in 2015 – and won them all

  20. Cambridge Westminster voting intention:

    LDEM: 39% (+10)
    LAB: 30% (-22)
    GRN: 12% (+10)
    CON: 10% (-6)
    BREX: 7% (+7)

    via @Survation, 16 – 17 Oct
    Chgs. w/ 2017 result

  21. Shevii- perfectly valid points. It’s the first bit of constituency polling I’ve seen in a while, so thought I’d post it. Other than the SNP doing very, very well, I don’t think I’m confident about predicting anything re: this election.

  22. Given their past track record, I am inclined to wait for a media consensus on what the result is likely to be, and then plump for the total opposite.

    Or just wait for YouGov’s MLP model. That was pretty good!

  23. That was ace. Comres MRP in thr euros was less so 🙁

  24. Yes, I’m also looking forward to the YouGov MRP model as well.

  25. The Greens are unlikely to stand, if in “Remain Alliance” with the LDs. Though their votes might just as easily transfer to Labour. Have to say, I don’t see Labour losing here.

  26. If the election took place today, the Lib Dems would probably win here. But the election is taking place in six weeks and a hell of a lot can happen over that timeframe.

  27. Tories lose control of Cambridgeshire County Council, their first real setback of the day

Leave a Reply

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)