Camborne & Redruth

2015 Result:
Conservative: 18452 (40.2%)
Labour: 11448 (25%)
Lib Dem: 5687 (12.4%)
Green: 2608 (5.7%)
UKIP: 6776 (14.8%)
Mebyon Kernow: 897 (2%)
MAJORITY: 7004 (15.3%)

Category: Semi-marginal Conservative seat

Geography: South West, Cornwall. Part of the Cornwall council area.

Main population centres:

Profile:

Politics:


Current MP
GEORGE EUSTICE (Conservative) Born 1971, Penzance. Educated at Truro School. Former Strawberry farmer, director of the No campaign against the Euro and press secretary to Michael Howard and David Cameron. Contested South West region for UKIP in 1999. First elected as MP for Camborne & Redruth in 2010. Fisheries Minister since 2013.
Past Results
2010
Con: 15969 (38%)
Lab: 6945 (16%)
LDem: 15903 (37%)
UKIP: 2152 (5%)
Oth: 1524 (4%)
MAJ: 66 (0%)
2005*
Con: 12644 (26%)
Lab: 14861 (31%)
LDem: 16747 (35%)
UKIP: 1820 (4%)
Oth: 1943 (4%)
MAJ: 1886 (4%)
2001
Con: 14005 (30%)
Lab: 18532 (40%)
LDem: 11453 (24%)
UKIP: 1328 (3%)
Oth: 1502 (3%)
MAJ: 4527 (10%)
1997
Con: 15463 (29%)
Lab: 18151 (34%)
LDem: 13512 (25%)
Oth: 2972 (6%)
MAJ: 2688 (5%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Falmouth & Camborne

Demographics
2015 Candidates
GEORGE EUSTICE (Conservative) See above.
MICHAEL FOSTER (Labour) Literary and media agent.
JULIA GOLDSWORTHY (Liberal Democrat) Born 1978, Camborne. Educated at Truro School and Cambridge University. MP for Falmouth and Camborne 2005-2010. Contested Camborne and Redruth 2010.
ROBERT SMITH (UKIP) Psychologist. Contested Devon and Cornwall Police Commissioner election 2012.
GEOFF GARBETT (Green) Educated at Glamorgan University. University lecturer. Contested Taunton 1979.
LOVEDAY JENKIN (Mebyon Kernow) Educated at Helston Grammar School and Cardiff University. Lecturer. Former Kerrier councillor, Cornwall councillor since 2011. Contested Camborne and Redruth 2010.
Links
Comments - 402 Responses on “Camborne & Redruth”
  1. The clue is in the word Independence Barnaby old chum.

  2. Yeah, D.Alex, regionalism and Euroscepticism aren’t all that closely linked. Barnaby’s right.

  3. UKIP are still claiming this as a ‘can win’ despite what happened with Evans.

  4. Labour gained a Camborne town council seat from MK-PC yesterday, the votes in Roskear being:

    Labour 298
    Conservative 145
    MK-PC 80
    Green 31

    No UKIP or Lib Dem candidates. If the Lib Dems are serious about regaining this seat next May, why are they still not fielding candidates in byelections? It isn’t that long ago that they controlled the town council, now they have no members and don’t contest the elections.

  5. Main party candidates:

    Con: George Eustice
    Lab: Michael Foster
    LD: Julia Goldsworthy
    UKIP: Robert Smith
    Greens: Geoff Garbett

    UKIP have just selected:

    http://www.westbriton.co.uk/UKIP-reveal-candidate-Camborne-Redruth-Hayle-seat/story-24552111-detail/story.html

  6. It seems that Mr Eustice is showing off the fact that he was once in UKIP in order to try and get re-elected here and stop the UKIP threat. Do you think this will help or hinder him here?

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tory-mp-plays-up-his-ukip-past-to-woo-voters-9877875.html

  7. Do we think Eustice might on the defect list?

  8. He was once a UKIP prospective MEP. There is definitely a chance he could defect, though John Baron is likely to be next to move over.

    All UKIP MP defectors will be found in UKIP target seats, hence why Peter Bone, Phillip Hollobone etc. will not defect.

    I think that the following Conservative MPs are the five most likely to move over (and I am sure that some will after Christmas):

    John Baron
    Adam Holloway
    Gordon Henderson
    Mark Pritchard
    Andrew Rosindell

  9. There is no way you can know any of that…we are becoming the Walter Mitty society again.

    Nobody knows if there will be 10 more defections or zero. Though, as I posted the other day, UKIP’s mood seems unmistakeably less gung ho than after Clacton.

    That’s not to say there might not be a significant Con/UKIP re-alignment if Cameron goes down to a bad defeat in May.

  10. A good list. I think in particular Henderson and Pritchard are two good shouts, maybe two names to watch out for in the New Year.

  11. I was slightly amused by George Eustice on Newsnight the other evening when he was happy to acknowledge his constituency as being a possible three-way marginal but didn’t want UKIP to be included as one of the three which is of course total horse****.

  12. A Romford by-election would be extremely interesting.

    It is far richer than Clacton or Rochester, with a large City/commuter influence and a growing minority vote (though still small for London).

    I suppose Rosindell might hold the seat for UKIP on a personal vote but it would be no walk in the park. Just look at the local elections to see how difficult UKIP found most of the Romford wards this year. I do think Hornchurch and Upminster is naturally a better seat for UKIP than Romford.

  13. Is Romford really far richer than Rochester & Strood? I’d agree that its social composition is rather more middle-class, and that Hornchurch & Upminster is a better UKIP prospect, but it’s not as well-off as your old seat of Beckenham for example HH. The distinction is perhaps a little finer than you say, though in general your points are sound enough.

  14. “Is Romford really far richer than Rochester & Strood?”

    Depends how one defines “far”….but I’m pretty certain it will be richer. R&S has less City/commuter influence and more social housing.

  15. Although Romford is a somewhat better off area than Thurrock etc, the people there (not meaning to generalise excessively) largely have the same Essex-man/woman mentality about the world.

  16. Farage did let slip that the next MP he is working on is ‘local’ to Rochester. I expect that it is either Holloway or Henderson, with the former being more likely.

  17. Survation Camborne & redtruth poll:

    General VI:
    UKIP- 33%
    Conservatives- 30%
    Labour- 22%
    Green- 7%
    Lib Dems- 6%

    “In your constituency” VI:
    Conservatives- 34%
    UKIP- 28%
    Labour- 18%
    Lib Dem- 13%
    Green- 6%

    That Lib Dem figure is truly shocking.

  18. For inside knowledge and constituency reviews for Cornish seats see https://psephologyfromtheperiphery.wordpress.com/category/constituency-reviews/

  19. There were hustings in Tremough Campus for this constituency. Everyone turned up apart from the UKIP candidate and having talked to some of my friends who also went. Jula (Lib Dem) edged it closely followed by Eustice (Cons) though there is not much in it. The Green came across quite badly especially when he pointed out that the “Greens are pro-EU but don’t like free trade”. Whilst the MK candidate was good and personable but she was very repetitive on their blame on Westminster Government. However the worst person of the night was Foster (Lab) who came across arrogant and rude. I will post the video footage of the husting when it is released by the Uni. But you will see what I mean once you see the footage.

  20. Eustice will definitely hold here because of the massively split opposition. My current prediction is-
    Eustice (Conservative)- 32%
    Goldsworthy (Lib Dem)- 28%
    Robinson (Labour)- 18%
    Smith (UKIP)- 15%
    Garbett (Green)- 3%
    Jenkin (Mebyon Kernow)- 2.5%
    Dolley (Independent)- 1.5%

  21. Tremough Campus for this constituency. Everyone turned up apart from the UKIP candidate and having talked to some of my friends who also went. Jula (Lib Dem) edged it closely followed by Eustice (Cons) though there is not much in it. The Green came across quite badly especially when he pointed out that the “Greens are pro-EU but don’t like free trade”. Whilst the MK candidate was

  22. I find it absolutely incredible how any Anti-EU candidate such as George Eustice or UKIP would have a hope in hell here. The levels of EU funding in Cornwall, especially in this constituency are absolutely enormous, the projects are very visible and largely welcomed and provide most of the jobs and growth… talk about biting the hand that feeds you!

  23. @Kernowboy
    The UK is a net contributor to the EU. We pay more money in that we get out.

    The money distributed in Cornwall in EU branded projects comes from UK taxpayers.

  24. The Liberal party stands down 3 candidates in South West, including Camborne and Redtruth, in support of UKIP.

    http://m.westernmorningnews.co.uk/Liberal-Party-urges-supporters-vote-Ukip/story-26154057-detail/story.html

    Is it just me or are a lot of small parties and especially independents tend to be very supportive of UKIP..?

  25. Check out the St Austell page – discussion on this going on there.

  26. “Is it just me or are a lot of small parties and especially independents tend to be very supportive of UKIP..?”

    Didn’t the Canvey Island Independents in Castle Point (they have a grouping on the borough council) declare their support of UKIP? Assuming they get their local supporters to back UKIP in the general election, it gives them a boost.

  27. ‘The Liberal party stands down 3 candidates in South West, including Camborne and Redtruth, in support of UKIP.’

    Why a so-called Liberal party would seek to endorse arguably the least liberal party in British politics is mind boggling

    Unless of course the Cornwall Liberal party is like the short-lived Liberal Democrats of Russia – a hardline, right-wing ultra-nationalistic party that’s liberal in name only

  28. Aren’t the Russian Liberal Democrats still a thing? They did win 56 seats – an increase – last time.

    Another example might be the Southern Rhodesian Liberals, who were almost the exact opposite as well.

  29. makes no sense at all given the other positions of the liberal party. very odd. even though they’re eurosceptic.

  30. The Russian Liberal Democrats are basically fascists as far as I know.

  31. you know correctly andy.

  32. The Progressive Conservative Party in Canada where another party with a misleading name before they merged with the Reform Party to form the modern Canadian Conservatives in 2003.

    Back when Brian Mulroney with PM there was almost nothing progressive about them.

  33. Barnaby & Tim J – it isn’t that surprising given that Cllr Steve Radford leads them. He almost stood for UKIP in the Euros in 2009. I assume their constitution allows Cllrs to stand for other Parties, which is very liberal ha. Neil is right re Canvey Island. The Southport Party is backing UKIP too. With Locals on the same day lots of Ind Groups are being asked to back Tory/UKIP PPCs. It does tend to be either of those.

  34. A quick look on Wikipedia shows that there’s currently no centre right party represented in the Russian State Duma (Federal Parliament).

    That looks like a massive gap in the market. Or is everyone so fearful of Putin these days that nobody’s got the guts to try and fill it?

  35. I’m surprised there are any parties still around that don’t support Putin.

  36. I mean, United Russia is essentially just a statist big tent party. There are definitely some centre-right types there though.

  37. Liberal Democratic is the name of the main conservative party in Japan.

  38. Some of the Russian ‘parties’ are not really independent.

  39. Could there be another double digit majority for George Eustice here?

  40. Latest Ashcroft poll:

    Con: 39
    Lab: 26
    UKIP: 14
    LD: 10
    Grn: 9
    Oth: 3

    Prompted for Constituency:

    Con: 37
    Lab: 24
    UKIP: 14
    LD: 13
    Grn: 8
    Oth: 3

    As I have continually pointed out, the Lib Dems have crashed here and the poll bears it out. UKIP continue to slide but have probably reached a solid and stubborn base.
    Can Labour take advantage of this? I suspect a Tory hold, bu if Labour can squeeze the Greens and Lib Dems (though there can’t be much left to be squeezed), it could be fairly close.

  41. #but

  42. Unless the UKIP vote can start pushing upwards again I’d say this is pretty safe for the Tories now…

  43. l understand labour frontbencher liz kendall visited this constituency today. though this looks like a tory hold, it’s no longer a seat that labour is ignoring entirely.

  44. The party General Secretary was there a few days ago as well. If I was Labour,l in Cornwall, I would concentrate all local campaigning on this seat

  45. I imagine that is what they have done in the last few elections isn’t it, given their complete lack of support elsewhere in the county. The best they can hope for is second though.

  46. The Labour candidate is a millionaire and is spending a shitload of his own money on the campaign. This can be seen in the contact rates for Labour, which are much higher in this seat (65%) than any of the other Cornish seats (e.g. 24% in St Austell). Doesn’t seem to be making much impression though.

    I think this will be an easy Tory hold. The sitting MP is pretty Eurosceptic (an ex-UKIP candidate) and should hover up some more of their support.

  47. Not making much impression? This was a seat that people said Julia Goldsworthy would become the main challenger, or maybe UKIP. ..all ob this site.

  48. #on

  49. Traditionally this has been the weakest area of Liberal / Lib Dem support in Cornwall so the Ashcroft poll is to some extent reflecting a return to normality. Also remember that the contest in Falmouth / Camborne which first saw Goldsworthy being elected had local controversy relating to a gay Conservative candidate; and in 2010 the Conservatives released very late in the day a circular making – possibly dubious – claims about Goldsworthy’s expenses. So its been a while since theres been a “normal” contest in this neck of the woods.

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