Camborne & Redruth

2015 Result:
Conservative: 18452 (40.2%)
Labour: 11448 (25%)
Lib Dem: 5687 (12.4%)
Green: 2608 (5.7%)
UKIP: 6776 (14.8%)
Mebyon Kernow: 897 (2%)
MAJORITY: 7004 (15.3%)

Category: Semi-marginal Conservative seat

Geography: South West, Cornwall. Part of the Cornwall council area.

Main population centres:

Profile:

Politics:


Current MP
GEORGE EUSTICE (Conservative) Born 1971, Penzance. Educated at Truro School. Former Strawberry farmer, director of the No campaign against the Euro and press secretary to Michael Howard and David Cameron. Contested South West region for UKIP in 1999. First elected as MP for Camborne & Redruth in 2010. Fisheries Minister since 2013.
Past Results
2010
Con: 15969 (38%)
Lab: 6945 (16%)
LDem: 15903 (37%)
UKIP: 2152 (5%)
Oth: 1524 (4%)
MAJ: 66 (0%)
2005*
Con: 12644 (26%)
Lab: 14861 (31%)
LDem: 16747 (35%)
UKIP: 1820 (4%)
Oth: 1943 (4%)
MAJ: 1886 (4%)
2001
Con: 14005 (30%)
Lab: 18532 (40%)
LDem: 11453 (24%)
UKIP: 1328 (3%)
Oth: 1502 (3%)
MAJ: 4527 (10%)
1997
Con: 15463 (29%)
Lab: 18151 (34%)
LDem: 13512 (25%)
Oth: 2972 (6%)
MAJ: 2688 (5%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Falmouth & Camborne

Demographics
2015 Candidates
GEORGE EUSTICE (Conservative) See above.
MICHAEL FOSTER (Labour) Literary and media agent.
JULIA GOLDSWORTHY (Liberal Democrat) Born 1978, Camborne. Educated at Truro School and Cambridge University. MP for Falmouth and Camborne 2005-2010. Contested Camborne and Redruth 2010.
ROBERT SMITH (UKIP) Psychologist. Contested Devon and Cornwall Police Commissioner election 2012.
GEOFF GARBETT (Green) Educated at Glamorgan University. University lecturer. Contested Taunton 1979.
LOVEDAY JENKIN (Mebyon Kernow) Educated at Helston Grammar School and Cardiff University. Lecturer. Former Kerrier councillor, Cornwall councillor since 2011. Contested Camborne and Redruth 2010.
Links
Comments - 404 Responses on “Camborne & Redruth”
  1. The Conservative MP for Falmouth and Camborne from 1970-1992 was the popular David Mudd, and he seemed to have quite a large personal vote.

    For example, in October 1974, his vote share actually increased by 5.35%, well against the national trend- Cornwall has always liked voting for the person sometimes rather than merely the party, and I think David Mudd was a classic MP of this mould. What is interesting, though is that in the 1980s, his vote began to fall back quite a bit, owing to a challenge brewing from the SDP. He did seem to do better than average in the 70s however, maybe accounting for these later results. His majority was as big as 16, 600 (30.83%) by 1979, having started at 1, 523 (3.16%) when he gained the seat from John Dunwoody back n 1970. That suggests to me a large personal following for David Mudd during his long time as MP here.

  2. I think Eustice probably has a similar personal following that David Mud does.

    And to CatholicLeft when you talk psephological evidence,
    rembemer the first three letters pse really emphasize what ‘evidence’ this really is. PSEUDOSCIENCE.

  3. My guess is Eustice will hold on fairly comfortably with a rather low share of the vote, possibly as low as 30-33%.

  4. D.Alex, why would a one-term MP who doesn’t seem all that popular, in an era with generally lower personal votes, have the same following as Mudd? It makes no earthly sense!

    And I think Andy could be right. I could reasonably see there being four parties in the 18-32% range.

  5. Also, Mudd stood in 2005, in case anyone is forgetting. Didn’t do too well, with only 2% of the vote.

  6. I think this seat along with Thurrock, Oxford West and Argyll and Bute are turning out to be the most difficult to predict.

  7. Thurrock is a clear labour gain. Oxford West a very likely Tory hold. This is a near certain Tory hold. Definitely not the hardest examples.

    Birmingham Yardley
    St Austell and Newquay
    Keighley

    The hardest of each type of marginal for me. Your example of Argyllshire and Bute is probably the best though. Certainly the only seat where four parties have a credible shot at winning.

  8. Yes, Argyll & Bute (don’t know why you Anglicized that) is probably the most interesting.

    I’m not sure about Keighley. I think it should be a relatively clear Tory hold.

    Yardley isn’t that hard to predict. It divides opinion, but there’s nothing to make it especially challenging.

    I think Camborne and St. Austell are relatively similar to each other, but would agree that St. Austell is the harder. Eustice’s incumbency, as a member of a (comparatively) popular party (compared only to the Lib Dems) should see him through. St. Austell is a bit different. The locals and the Ashcroft polling are almost exact opposites, so really who knows.

    Oxford West should be a Tory hold. I actually think Montgomeryshire is harder, simply because it is an incredibly safe Liberal/Lib Dem seat traditionally, but was recently gained fairly convincingly by the Tories. I am incredibly curious to see what will happen without Lembit Öpik.

  9. I think that’ll be a Tory hold with an increased majority.

    There’ll be a Solihull somewhere – I’m just not going to say where.

  10. Only joking (last bit).

  11. Perhaps there’ll be a Solihull in Solihull? 🙂

  12. Oh, I don’t doubt the Lib Dems will have some semi-magical holds and some shocking losses on election night.

  13. Probably not this time.
    I think a more interesting question is whether the Tories can gain Brecon – it seems very unpredictable but looks like the LDs are a bit sticky there.
    I’m not completely in tune with Wales but I strongly suspect Montgomeryshire will turn into a safe rural C seat.

  14. Neither do I. In fact, who knows, they may even narrowly hold Somerton and Frome once again, but lose Bristol West, however unlikely that may sound- only trying to merely cover all bases you see…

  15. I think Bristol West is a bit of an unknown – the LDs have taken quite a big hit in Bristol aswell but the size of their majority will probably keep it with them – like I posted by about 4% – perhaps a little more.
    Eventually I think it’ll be a safeish Labour seat with a Tory rump in Clifton and some other bits which are becoming very wealthy.

  16. RE Brecon I think Joe that there’s a chance it could be less than 1000 votes in it, but that the LDs will be saved there by Roger Williams’ incumbency I think.

    Moving on to Montgomeryshire, that sounds reasonable enough, as there clearly is a longterm trend in the Tories’ favour there for whatever reason, though I suspect Glyn Davies’ local popularity has obviously helped them win there.

  17. It’s the 2011 results which convinced me. Not that I’m assuming. The work has to be done.

  18. I disagree on Montgomeryshire. I think the Tories win was a result of Öpik’s personal life. I don’t necessarily see the trend you’re seeing longterm. I think it will go back to the Lib Dems pretty soon, if not this time, then next time.

  19. But on Bristol West, I’m not entirely sure why people think Bristol West will see a total Lib Dem evaporation down the line. I just don’t think theres evidence of that at all. I think it will remain a Lib Dem/Labour battleground, with a substantial Conservative vote serving as a wildcard.

  20. With you on Bristol West Joe. I think there’ll be a big reduction in Stephen Williams’ majority, but there was such a large swing to him last time helped I think by tactical Tory voters that if he ever does lose this seat, it probably won’t be next time I don’t think.

    RE the 2011 results convincing you, I assume you’re referring to Brecon? If not, and is Montgomeryshire, then my mistake.

  21. I think he was talking about Montgomeryshire going safe Tory (again, I heartily disagree), but I could be wrong.

  22. You think the Lib Dems will take Monty back? I don’t, I think the result at Cardiff Bay, a Tory gain there too suggests they won’t manage it next year, there’s some sort of underlying trend that’s been there for a while building in the Tories’ favour here- I think the Lib Dems have gone into a bit of a decline in this seat, and given the national circumstances for them they’ll likely face next year, I don’t see that helping them avenge Lembit’s loss last time. Again, I’m similarly inclined as JJB is on Montgomeryshire.

  23. Oh, I don’t know about next year. I think they’ll hold it close, and then regain in 2020, or, if Glyn Davies can pull through on personal vote, then when he steps down (I can’t imagine him going past 2025, though). This seat has an incredibly solid liberal history, and ultimately, it’s one of few in the country that are naturally Lib Dem (you could make an argument for some of the Scottish seats (Orkney and Shetland, most prominently), North Cornwall, North Devon, Bath, some in South London, and some in Somerset, but that’s about it, if even that many). I think they’ll take it back within the next two elections, and I’m all but positive they’ll do it within three.

  24. Well I actually agree with that assessment. It’s true I think that the Tories could hold on to Montgomeryshire for at least another two general elections, after that it might get vulnerable again when Glyn Davies stands down. I think it’s got the feel of a seat going though a Tory phase that might last about 10-15 years, I still don’t really know why this is, but it’s interesting all the same. But yes further down the line it should really go back to the Lib Dems- if they’re to really think about rebuilding themselves in the 2020s, they’re going to have to start by taking this seat back if they can.

  25. Yes, I agree. I think they’ll stay well over 30% here, and Davies won’t crest 45%. From that range, they can tighten back up (majority in the single digits, certainly) in 2020, and then easily take it back in 2025, at which point he’ll almost certainly have stood down. If he stands down in 2020, they should get it then.

  26. I disagree with the Lib Dems taking Montgomeryshire when Davis stands down. Their support there can’t all be down to his personal vote. If it is, then how can you explain the Tory gain there at the 2011 Welsh Assembly election?

  27. It’ll be a Tory gold in 2015 with an increased majority and they stand a good chance of holding on when Glynn Davis stands down, probably at the election after next.

  28. Sorry but that I obviously don’t agree with you. I think the Lib Dems will eventually take this back, it’s still marginal, and they held it for so long that if they don’t take it back in the next decade, I’d be amazed to be honest.

    I don’t understand what gives you the idea that they could hold this without Glyn Davies, because I think it’s largely his hard work in the seat over very many years that has got the Tories to where they are in Montgomeryshire now. He is a very popular MP and I struggle to see how that could transfer to a Tory successor, the gain in 2011 at the Assembly was just a mirror image of the Davies effect against Lembit Opik in 2010. I repeat, once Davies goes, the seat will return to the Lib Dems.

  29. Adam, I’ve had a reread of what you’ve said, and I struggle to see how you can arrive at those conclusions.

    I think there was a bit of North Devon in 1979 about what happened in Montgomeryshire last time, and there Antony Speller was able to hold that seat for 13 years. I can see something similar happening with Glyn Davies, so I’d predict he’ll hold his seat in 2015 and 2020, before standing down in 2025, upon which time the Lib Dems will probably be in a much better place locally and nationally than they are now, and would probably take the seat back. So short term, I think it’s definitely trending in the Tories’ favour, longterm however Adam I’m sorry to have to say this but the fundamental nature of the seat being Lib Dem culturally and historically is not going to be easily lost, and it will return to them one day I think.

  30. I’m not doubting that the Lib Dems have the potential to gain Montgomeryshire at some point in the future, I’m just saying that the Tories might be able to hold on their after Davis retires. But that’s by no means certain. Even if they do continue to build their strength there, I doubt it will ever be considered a safe Tory seat and the Lib Dens will always have it within their sight.

  31. Sounds like we do agree on something about Montgomeryshire then. I do agree actually that it will probably not be anywhere near as safe for the Lib Dems as it was, even if they do get it back at some point.

  32. I am in 150% agreement with the Results.

  33. P.T. Richards, could I point you in the direction of my review of the Unitary Election results for the area as that would better illustrate my point about Liberal Democrat decline.

    http://catholicleft.blogspot.co.uk/2014/03/cornwall-unitary-election-results-2013_4801.html

  34. P.T Richards

    “I am 150% in agreement with the results.”

    makes sense seen as you’re clearly the SAME PERSON.

  35. How likely do we find those defection claims? There was dead silence on Carswell before that announcement. Any word from the MPs in question?

  36. Seriously doubt a guy who is now a minister is going to jeopardise that by defecting to UKIP. Moreover, Geroge Eustice hasn’t particularly struck me as one who would be inclined to go purple and yellow.

    Around 2012 I thought Priti Patel was a possible candidate for defection in the future, but since her growing loyalty to Cameron and of course her promotion to the Treasury, it’s a very very very distant prospect.

  37. We’re not the same person Robbie.

  38. “This seat has an incredibly solid liberal history, and ultimately, it’s one of few in the country that are naturally Lib Dem (you could make an argument for some of the Scottish seats (Orkney and Shetland, most prominently), North Cornwall, North Devon, Bath, some in South London, and some in Somerset”

    re: South London is not natural Liberal terrority.
    Bermondsey was gained in a by-election before then it was solid Labour

    Richmond, Kingston and Sutton were staunch Conservative boroughs untill the Alliance breakthrough.

    The Liberals (Lord Tope) won Sutton and Cheam in 1972 by election other than that before 1997 it was solid Blue.

    General Election 1987: Sutton and Cheam
    Party Candidate Votes %
    Conservative Sir Neil Macfarlane 29,710 60.75
    Liberal R. D. Greig 13,992 28.61
    Labour L. Monk 5,202 10.64
    Majority 15,718 32.14

  39. That would be Laraine Monk whom I have met in the course of my duties in the Labour Party in Kingston.
    Not quite sure why anyone would think that PTR & TheResults are the same person. The former is Conservative-inclined & the latter is a non-aligned left-winger.

  40. Thank you, Barnaby. Robbie, the Results and I are not the same person. End of story.

  41. Has anyone conducted research into the views and demographic profiles of voters in the south west (and specifically LD voters?) I know YouGov has done so with northern voters but it would be very interesting, though perhaps rather disconcerting for the LD leadership who I imagine would be horrified about the views of people who have voted for the party.

  42. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-29626429

    UKIP candidate removed over animal welfare charges.

  43. Presumably they were immigrant sheep, and deserved what they got.

  44. ‘UKIP candidate removed over animal welfare charges.’

    How totally unsurprising

    I wonder how many more UKIP’s PPCs will be forced to stand between now and the election?

    Quite a few I would suspect

  45. Tim

    “Animal welfare” charges have been brought against candidates and indeed MPs from other parties too….Quentin Davies being a good example (and he counts as both Tory and Labour)

    I’m not a UKIP supporter but don’t see why they would be any crueller to animals than supporters of other parties

  46. ;I’m not a UKIP supporter but don’t see why they would be any crueller to animals than supporters of other parties’

    It could be argued that they are crueller to other human beings – at least foreign non-white ones – than the other main parties

    I’m more thinking of prior to this year’s Euro elections where a host of their candidates were caught out making a wide range of comnments that anyone with the slightest ounce of decency would find repugnant

    It’s naiive to think it won’t happen again – and probably even more naiive to suspect that it will have any affect on their popularity

  47. A Ukip parliamentary candidate who faces prison for animal cruelty over the deaths of 260 sheep has been removed by the party after pleading guilty to neglect.

    Farmer David Evans, 71, of Week St Mary, had been chosen to contest Camborne and Redruth in Cornwall before animal welfare officers and police found 119 dead animals on his land.

    Would have thought UKIP would have done quite well there considering the demographics.

  48. Just thinking about it. With 16% of Lib Dem supporters now voting UKIP (national Lord Ashcroft poll) 56% of people who didn’t vote in 2010 voting UKIP (COMRES Rochester Poll) – they did have the opportunity to do really well here. Especially as only 30% of Lib Dems plan to vote Lib Dem again (National Lord Ashcroft Poll). Labour don’t have much chance here considering the 2nd home owner who has been parachuted in and the history with Candy Atherton so it may be a shoe in for Eustice to sit a second term.

    What does surprise me considering the potential support for UKIP here, is why Mebyon Kernow haven’t managed to capitalise offering similar policy (We want Cornish Rule) as UKIP (we want UK Rule). You would have thought the Scottish vote would have galvanised them.

  49. I was under the impression that Cornwall was considerably smaller than the UK as a whole. Correct me if I’m wrong. Therefore, the 2 policies have no resemblance to each other whatsoever.

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