Camborne & Redruth

2015 Result:
Conservative: 18452 (40.2%)
Labour: 11448 (25%)
Lib Dem: 5687 (12.4%)
Green: 2608 (5.7%)
UKIP: 6776 (14.8%)
Mebyon Kernow: 897 (2%)
MAJORITY: 7004 (15.3%)

Category: Semi-marginal Conservative seat

Geography: South West, Cornwall. Part of the Cornwall council area.

Main population centres:

Profile:

Politics:


Current MP
GEORGE EUSTICE (Conservative) Born 1971, Penzance. Educated at Truro School. Former Strawberry farmer, director of the No campaign against the Euro and press secretary to Michael Howard and David Cameron. Contested South West region for UKIP in 1999. First elected as MP for Camborne & Redruth in 2010. Fisheries Minister since 2013.
Past Results
2010
Con: 15969 (38%)
Lab: 6945 (16%)
LDem: 15903 (37%)
UKIP: 2152 (5%)
Oth: 1524 (4%)
MAJ: 66 (0%)
2005*
Con: 12644 (26%)
Lab: 14861 (31%)
LDem: 16747 (35%)
UKIP: 1820 (4%)
Oth: 1943 (4%)
MAJ: 1886 (4%)
2001
Con: 14005 (30%)
Lab: 18532 (40%)
LDem: 11453 (24%)
UKIP: 1328 (3%)
Oth: 1502 (3%)
MAJ: 4527 (10%)
1997
Con: 15463 (29%)
Lab: 18151 (34%)
LDem: 13512 (25%)
Oth: 2972 (6%)
MAJ: 2688 (5%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Falmouth & Camborne

Demographics
2015 Candidates
GEORGE EUSTICE (Conservative) See above.
MICHAEL FOSTER (Labour) Literary and media agent.
JULIA GOLDSWORTHY (Liberal Democrat) Born 1978, Camborne. Educated at Truro School and Cambridge University. MP for Falmouth and Camborne 2005-2010. Contested Camborne and Redruth 2010.
ROBERT SMITH (UKIP) Psychologist. Contested Devon and Cornwall Police Commissioner election 2012.
GEOFF GARBETT (Green) Educated at Glamorgan University. University lecturer. Contested Taunton 1979.
LOVEDAY JENKIN (Mebyon Kernow) Educated at Helston Grammar School and Cardiff University. Lecturer. Former Kerrier councillor, Cornwall councillor since 2011. Contested Camborne and Redruth 2010.
Links
Comments - 404 Responses on “Camborne & Redruth”
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  1. UKIP predictably falling through the floor as we speak – on course for 6-8 in the GE nationally.

  2. Completely agreed, Joe. Those people who think UKIP will beat the Lib Dems into fourth in the popular vote or that they’ll definitely break 10 percent are raving. UKIP will be about where you say they will, 6-8, at the GE, and they’ll be at least a few percent behind the Lib Dems (who I think will be at 12-15).

  3. Having just returned from a holiday in Mississippi and Louisiana, one realises that UKIP are not really that right wing compared to some of the tea party type fruitloops in existence in the USA.

    Would agree with others here that 8% is as much as they will achieve in next years GE.

  4. The Mabe result was probably a better result for the Lib Dem. if you look at the actual votes, though it was only a 28.6% vote……. From May last year 40% turn out… Lib Dems gained 74 votes, The Tories lost 4 votes, Labour lost 22 votes and Ukip lost 142 votes.

    So like Illogan last week, The Lib Dems were the big gainers whilst Labour anf Ukip the big losers. This could put George Eustice under pressure and the floaters going back to Lib Dems… Labour has been putting out a lot of Tabloids, but these two contests, show that this just led to a bigger exit. I wouldn’t bet on this seat. Could be like Mabe one vote in it, but I think Julia Goldsworthy could be back at Westminster.

  5. I don’t get the impression that George Eustice is the most competent or dedicated MP, although I could well be wrong. Goldsworthy, by contrast, always seemed both like a rising star and a pretty good MP.

    IF (and it’s a big if) she does make it back, I think she’ll probably be right back on the Lib Dem frontbench. Also, the party will want women in high-profile spots, and whether or not they need a new leader after the election, we know for sure they’ll need a new deputy leader once Malcolm Bruce stands down. With Lorely Burt almost certain to lose Solihull, Goldsworthy might make a good candidate to fill that roll.

  6. The Liberal Party running a candidate here might crimp Goldsworthy’s chances even if they got only 2-3% of the vote..

  7. Whilst the Liberal Democrats are showing signs of life after pretty rapid decline in this area, it is in no way near enough to be predicting a return to parlaiment for Julia Goldsworthy.
    The targeting by activists in a County Council byelection is going to be difficult to repeat in the general election when their are others areas of concern for Cornish Liberal Democrats. It is worth remembering that this is one of only 6 divisions that they fought in the old Kerrier district area of Cornwall in 2013 and one would have expected them to do better then after the disaster of 2009. One would assume that there is still an activist base here.
    UKIP have a long history in this division and the previous Illogan North district ward and should be very disappointed to have fallen back so far. It continues the narrative that where UKIP have been around as a choice for quite a while, they are less likely to pick up new votes and the novelty factor is gone.
    Labour have never done well in this area (Illogan South ward in the old Kerrier council has little to do with the present Illogan division), and their candidate last year was pretty much squeezed out by Mebyon Kernow’s Stephen RIchardson.
    On the face of it, the most disappointed party should be the Conservatives who have lost another councillor, but it was a surprise to most commentators – and I would guess Councillor Wilkins himself – that he managed to hold on here, in a very split field at the time, with only 28.8% of the vote. The big drop in the Tory vote is very bad for them but I would say the real losers here are Mebyon Kernow who, having come so close last year with Mr Richardson, must have thought they would snatch the seat this time, having fallen just 41 votes last year. Even as the established challengers, the drop in Mebyon Kernow’s vote was pretty bad and much of it seems to have gone the way of former Liberal Councillor Paul Holmes who returned to this election, having fought Four Lanes last year.
    As I have noted before, the Liberals didn’t really come from a standing start as they didn’t field a candidate in 2013, but to come 6th must be very disheartening for Mr Holmes.
    So, all in all, a good result for the Liberal Democrats because they won and significantly increased their vote (although it is not the highest it has been in this area), a disappointment for the Conservatives, a real blow for Mebyon Kernow, a sign of decline for UKIP, pretty blah for Labour and personally diasappointing for Mr Holmes.

  8. “Completely agreed, Joe. Those people who think UKIP will beat the Lib Dems into fourth in the popular vote or that they’ll definitely break 10 percent are raving.”

    Except the weight of polling evidence for several years suggests this is a distinct possibility. By no means certain, but not ‘raving’ to think so. You think the Lib Dems will recover from their current position, fine, but there are pretty reasonable arguments to suggest that will not happen – the fact that they have consistently been around 10% in the polls for a few years but have now actually gone even lower 9 months out from the general election does not exactly bode well.

  9. I think that this is a particularly tough seat to predict. Labour effectively cannot win and the Lib Dems were edged out by a whisker last time, so if any Labour – Lib Dem tactical voting possibilities remain after the 2010 debacle, such a phenomenon may occur here, albeit on a weaker scale than before. Add in the UKIP wild card and the possibility of a significant decline in the Tory vote and one could just envisage a rare Lib Dem gain here in 2015.

    However, this is definitely not a firm prediction.

  10. That’s interesting, because the recent Ashcroft poll summarised on the previous page showed the Liberal Democrats down 23 points on the last election, with Labour, UKIP and Conservatives pretty close. What’s also interesting about that poll is that there were fewer rule out Labs than rule out Cons including slightly fewer UKIP prospective voters saying that they’d never vote Labour than that they’d never vote Conservative:

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/LORD-ASHCROFT-POLLS-Con-Lib-Dem-battleground-June-20141.pdf

  11. Dr John, I would predict only one thing, this seat will be a mess of divided votes. I really don’t see the Liberal Democrats gaining extra votes from Labour next time, they are much more likely to lose them back to Labour or across to UKIP.
    You are ignoring the fact that the Liberal Democrats weren’t able to field candidates across most of the Constituency in 2013 and where they did, they did very badly (with the exception of Mount Hawke, which is unlike the rest of the constituency).
    For the reasons I have already given above, the Illogan result does not really boost the Liberal Democrat chances. Their vote will be seriously cut here next year – all of the evidence points to that. Where that vote will go is the real question.

  12. Look, the thing with Cornwall is that it’s close to impossible to predict. The Lib Dems could gain one or two, they could lose all three, it could stay exactly the same, and, in my opinion, any of those options is quite viable.

  13. I think I might have made the point on the old site but I’ll make it here now- The Lib Dems have over the years had some unusual results in this area, specifically in Falmouth and Camborne, after an increase in 1987 of 6.97% for the SDP, their vote continued to go backwards in the three following elections-
    1992- 31.2%, -3.4%
    1997- 25.2%, -6.0%
    2001- 24.5%, -0.7%

    So that was a consecutive decrease of 10.1%, which still put the Lib Dems behind their 1983 result by 3.1%. Interestingly Julia Goldsworthy’s increase in 2005 was a full 10.4%, so she more than recovered all the votes the Lib Dems had lost in F&C between 1992 and 2001 by the looks of the result.

  14. 2015 will be to the LibDems what 2008 was to the Icelandic economy.

    Lets put this seat down in the dead cert column for them

  15. You mean dead cert loss?

  16. Well, that’s what I had assumed too.

    At the moment, if I was to be (extremely) brave, I would predict the following for next year-
    Eustice (Conservative)- 27%
    Labour- 26.5%
    Goldsworthy (Liberal Democrat)- 25%
    UKIP- 18%
    Mebyon Kernow- 2%
    Green- 1.5%

  17. I was (sarcastically) saying the LDs would gain this, joining in the hype and hysteria above

  18. I don’t much like your prediction, the Results, but I don’t know that I could do much better. This is a hard one to call. I think you’re putting Labour a tad too high, but I could be wrong, of course.

  19. I think there will be some unwind in the Lib Dem vote here in favour of Labour and that they have a chance of narrowly scraping second ahead of the Lib Dems- They seem to be too far behind to take this back next time.

    At the same time I can see GE losing a lot of votes to UKIP, but will cling on one way or another because of a split in the centre-left opposition vote in this seat.

  20. How about this for an approximate assessment?

    Conservative 32
    LD 27
    Labour 22
    UKIP 15
    Green 2
    Others 2

  21. Yeah – bang on.

  22. So my prediction is completely wrong…

    Not surprised about that TBH.

  23. You can’t say that – you could easily be proved right, and I wrong. It’s just a prediction. Just because I say something different doesn’t prove me correct at this stage. I just doubt that Labour will be all that close on the basis of the CC elections last year. Labour made only minor progress here, but much more in Penzance. I know CC elections aren’t the be-all & end-all in Cornwall even more so than in other counties, but I don’t see the groundswell of support for Labour that will bring them close to winning as you suggest.

  24. Well I did think that the notion of Labour finishing second slightly ahead of the Lib Dems was a bit optimistic for them TBH.

    That’s not to say it can’t happen, it’s just on balance it seems unlikely next to your more understandable cautious prediction. GE will be very happy if he does increase his majority to 5%, that would be positively safe for him compared to the 66 he won with last time out.

  25. I’d more or less agree with Barnaby. I’d say there’d be play by about 3% up or down on either side of each of those figures, though (that is, the Tories could go as high as 35 or as low as 29 in my opinion, or the Lib Dems as high as 30 or as low as 24).

  26. This is a very poor area and the only reason Eustice got in was due to his UKIP status and due to Goldsworthy’s expenses. Goldsworthy is a hard worker, whereas Candy Atherton was not hence her losing her seat before.

    The Scottish vote will have a big impact on this seat as if they gain autonomy, mebyon Kernow, The libdems and to a lesser extent the Greens will do better due to their seek to their support of the Cornish assembly.

  27. Can’t see Candy Atherton doing very well here after how she treated the locals of the area last time. I also can’t see Julia Goldsworthy regaining the support that she fought so hard to attain after her expenses. I wouldn’t be suprised if UKIP do quite well here. A lot will depend on the Scottish Independence vote as if they managed to break free of the UK then that will embolden the Cornish who already have the support of all the parties down there for an assembly.

    Conservative 28
    UKIP 27
    Libdem 19
    Labour 15
    Green 4
    Mebyon Kernow 7

  28. Candy Atherton isn’t even the Labour candidate for next year

  29. Labour candidate is Michael Foster. I don’t think he’s either of the two former Labour MPs with that name.

    http://www.workingforcamborneandredruth.com/meet_michael_foster

  30. MOUNTSHAFT FOR RED RUTH !!!

  31. “A lot will depend on the Scottish Independence vote as if they managed to break free of the UK”

    While supporting Scottish independence is perfectly fine, wording it like it’s some kind of liberation movement (“break free”) on the scale of East Timor or South Sudan is becoming really desperate. Some nationalists online use this kind of hysterical bollocks to suggest that their cause is somehow comparable to the most oppressed minorities in the world. If they were so subjugated a referendum would’ve been nixed or attempted to be nixed.

    Then again I find the sanctimonious language of some unionists on supposed left wing sites like New Statesman and Left Foot Forward pretty annoying.

  32. The Tories have made sure they don’t allow the anti Tory parties to monopolise the No vote, and there may be a few flickerings in Scotland (a long way from this seat) that it’s paying off.
    Vote share up 1% in the Euros against 2009 (the only region where that happened) and 2 Council by-elections since about then.

  33. I think the Tories will do better in Scotland. However, I think the outcome of the Scotland vote will have essential no impact here. My prediction:

    Con 31
    LD 25
    UKIP 20
    Lab 19
    Grn 2
    MK 3

  34. Bit surprised to see you query the term ‘break free’ Neil.
    Scotland, Wales, Cornwall and Ireland have all been robbed by Westminster for centuries. These are some of the poorest parts of the countries that are forgotten and reliant on EU funding. Each party in Cornwall, Including the LibDems have signed up to support a Cornish Assembly. If cornwall gained its independence it would be bigger than many other nations.

    If Scotland finally gain their freedom, mark my works it will impact the vote in Cornwall.

  35. Surprised to see Michael Foster as Labour PPC.
    Not sure how he is going to connect with the people of Camborne and Redruth considering he isn’t really ‘from’ Port Navas – Its a second home. Michael Foster is one of the people stopping Cornish People getting on the housing ladder.

  36. There are lights out in Port Navas and lots of other fishing villages all winter due to people like Michael Foster.

  37. Labour vote will definitely take a nose dive now and I can see UKIP taking their votes as in other parts of the country. Conservatives may have a real fight on their hands.

    Especially given he used to have a company with Chris Evans who is famed for his tax avoidance.

    ————————–

    Job: co-chief executive, the Rights House
    Age: 53
    Industry: publishing, talent management
    Turnover: £5m
    Staff: 28
    New entry

    Michael Foster straddles the literary and showbiz worlds as co-chief executive, with Caroline Michel, of the Rights House.

    Chris Evans’s long-time agent and occasional business partner, Foster formed the Rights House last year when his MF Management company – now Rights House Talent – bought Peters Fraser & Dunlop, one of the most prestigious and oldest literary agencies in the country.

    As well as representing actors and performers such as Evans, Billie Piper and Sacha Baron Cohen, PFD is home to Simon Schama and Louise Bagshawe, the estates of Mervyn Peake and CS Forester, and production companies including Downton Abbey producer Carnival Films.

    Foster owns a controlling stake in the company, alongside fellow shareholders including Matthew Freud and Martin Gilbert, chief executive of Aberdeen Asset Management.

    Foster once owned Virgin Radio with Evans, who described his agent in the first volume of his autobiography as “a very small Jewish man as equally proud of his heritage as he is unphased by his lack of height”.

    The Rights House joined forces with Bloomsbury earlier this year to provide digital versions of out-of-print books ranging from Alan Clark to Monica Dickens. Expect plenty more similar deals to come.

    99. Michael Foster

    Share 0
    inShare0
    Email

    MediaGuardian, Monday 7 July 2003 00.01 BST

    Job: partner, Artists Rights Group; director UMTV

    Age: 45

    Industry: broadcasting, management

    Company turnover: £3m

    Staff: 12

    2002 ranking: new entry

    From multimillion pound business ventures to high court appearances, the career of Michael Foster is inextricably entwined with that of Chris Evans.

    As his agent, Mr Foster has helped develop Evans’ TV and radio career since the early 1990s, and he spoke out in court on behalf of his client in his ill-fated case against Virgin Radio.

    Mr Foster is also a major shareholder in Evans’ TV production company, UMTV. But the company has had a difficult birth.

    After securing a hat-trick of high-profile commissions from Channel 4 and Channel Five, UMTV took a knock when Channel 4 announced it was axing Evans’ latest attempt at a live Saturday night format, Boys and Girls.

    There was more bad news when Five took the axe to Evans’ live weekday strand, Live With…. Foster and Evans will be hoping that the daytime talk show fronted by Terry Wogan and Gaby Roslin on Five doesn’t go the same way.

    The bad news is that the show averaged fewer than 200,000 viewers in its first month on air. The good news is Five commissioned a mammoth 200-part run.

    Mr Foster’s influence in the world of the media and celebrity extends further than Evans and UMTV.

    A former co-chairman of the ICM agency (where he represented the likes of Liz Hurley and Hugh Grant), Foster went on to find the Artist’s Rights Group with another agent to the stars, Sue Latimer, in 2001.

    Foster currently represents a range of actors and presenters including Alan Davies, Ken Stott, Ross Kemp and Jamie Theakston as well as Evans’ pop star wife Billie Piper.

    Job: co-chief executive, the Rights House
    Age: 53
    Industry: publishing, talent management
    Turnover: £5m
    Staff: 28
    New entry

    Michael Foster straddles the literary and showbiz worlds as co-chief executive, with Caroline Michel, of the Rights House.

    Chris Evans’s long-time agent and occasional business partner, Foster formed the Rights House last year when his MF Management company – now Rights House Talent – bought Peters Fraser & Dunlop, one of the most prestigious and oldest literary agencies in the country.

    As well as representing actors and performers such as Evans, Billie Piper and Sacha Baron Cohen, PFD is home to Simon Schama and Louise Bagshawe, the estates of Mervyn Peake and CS Forester, and production companies including Downton Abbey producer Carnival Films.

    Foster owns a controlling stake in the company, alongside fellow shareholders including Matthew Freud and Martin Gilbert, chief executive of Aberdeen Asset Management.

    Foster once owned Virgin Radio with Evans, who described his agent in the first volume of his autobiography as “a very small Jewish man as equally proud of his heritage as he is unphased by his lack of height”.

    The Rights House joined forces with Bloomsbury earlier this year to provide digital versions of out-of-print books ranging from Alan Clark to Monica Dickens. Expect plenty more similar deals to come.
    ———–

  38. Seriously Anthony do these posts serve any purpose whatsoever? This site is getting spammed.

  39. I’ve not felt like posting all day TBH, and I wonder why that is…

  40. Sorry for not posting it very well. It was to help add to the debate as to how well Foster will do. I thought that Candy was meant to be going again for this seat and ironically she would have been the Labour member with a better chance of winning now she is settled down there and has a local council seat. The details RE: Foster goes to highlight the disconnect the locals will feel in a very impoverished area with a second homer who doesn’t even live in the area. Therefore Predicting that Eustice will retain this seat with UKIP a close second however dependent on the Scotland Vote there could be some movement up from the other parties. Possibly Mebyon Kernow.

  41. Sorry I wasn’t referring to you don’t worry. It actually makes for urm quite a read, I’ll leave it at that…

  42. I’ve been visiting this site since 2007 and I don’t think I’ve ever posted a comment as long as that.

  43. That looks like a cut and paste job I think. Not to take away from the impressively long nature of the post that is.

  44. I think actually there are a few candidates for shortest post on this site down the years- I say that because there have been cases where people have acidentally hit submit too soon and so technically posts have come through which unintentionally consist of one word, for example ‘I’, ‘A’ or ‘The’, what was the beginning of the sentence.

  45. I don’t think we need to have an awards session over post length. If we do, however, I will aim for “Post Closest to 347 Words in Length,” and I shall be sure to win.

  46. D. Alex, your predictions are not really based on psephological evidence, I would be frankly amazed if Labour were in fourth place with 15% of the vote in this seat next year. Labour’s vote share is likely to rise from its depths of 2010 and The Liberal Democrats have issues with the strength of their activist base in the constituency at the moment.
    I am not ready to make a percentage prediction just yet but would see the Conservatives as likely favourites. The UKIP share of the vote is the unknown factor here, will the General Election campaign make it harder for the party to advance here after it managed to corral the mid-term protest vote? Historical precedent would suggest so, but much of UKIP’s support is new, so we will have to wait and see.
    I really do not see Julia Goldworthy retaking this seat, I think the Liberal Democrats are hard-faced enough to concentrate on holding what they have elsewhere and there is unlikely to be as much outside help as one might have expected in the past.
    Labour will work the seat hard as it is its only real slim hope in Cornwall (although I would see Labour having a go in Truro and Falmouth to set themselves up in the future – the Liberal Democrats in that seat are in serious decline), but the best I would expect them to hope for would be to try to retake second place.
    I really am looking forward to what glimmers the campaign will give us when it begins. I just feel that there is enough evidence in Cornwall of the UKIP high point having been reached and the gloss beginning to come off. I base this on the failure of UKIP to do so well last year in Cornish divisions where they had a long history of standing candidates and on the decline in the UKIP vote in recent byelections.
    You have to love Cornish politics though.

  47. I made a prediction upthread & was told by one kind soul that it was spot on. I’m sticking to it at the moment.

  48. Looks like a really fun one to predict-

    con- 33%
    Lib- 28%
    Lab- 21%
    UKIP- 15%
    Green- 3%

  49. I could see your prediction working out. It’s not too far from mine, actually, but with some play between Labour and UKIP.

    I’d be interested, CatholicLeft, to know why you think the Lib Dems are in such longterm decline in Truro & Falmouth. Obviously, they’ve fallen a lot since the heady days of Penhaligon, but…. I’m not sure that that means they’re in a horrible state generally.

  50. Camborne and Redruth:
    Con 36
    LD 24
    Lab 22
    UKIP 14
    GRN 2
    Other 2

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