Camborne & Redruth

2015 Result:
Conservative: 18452 (40.2%)
Labour: 11448 (25%)
Lib Dem: 5687 (12.4%)
Green: 2608 (5.7%)
UKIP: 6776 (14.8%)
Mebyon Kernow: 897 (2%)
MAJORITY: 7004 (15.3%)

Category: Semi-marginal Conservative seat

Geography: South West, Cornwall. Part of the Cornwall council area.

Main population centres:

Profile:

Politics:


Current MP
GEORGE EUSTICE (Conservative) Born 1971, Penzance. Educated at Truro School. Former Strawberry farmer, director of the No campaign against the Euro and press secretary to Michael Howard and David Cameron. Contested South West region for UKIP in 1999. First elected as MP for Camborne & Redruth in 2010. Fisheries Minister since 2013.
Past Results
2010
Con: 15969 (38%)
Lab: 6945 (16%)
LDem: 15903 (37%)
UKIP: 2152 (5%)
Oth: 1524 (4%)
MAJ: 66 (0%)
2005*
Con: 12644 (26%)
Lab: 14861 (31%)
LDem: 16747 (35%)
UKIP: 1820 (4%)
Oth: 1943 (4%)
MAJ: 1886 (4%)
2001
Con: 14005 (30%)
Lab: 18532 (40%)
LDem: 11453 (24%)
UKIP: 1328 (3%)
Oth: 1502 (3%)
MAJ: 4527 (10%)
1997
Con: 15463 (29%)
Lab: 18151 (34%)
LDem: 13512 (25%)
Oth: 2972 (6%)
MAJ: 2688 (5%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Falmouth & Camborne

Demographics
2015 Candidates
GEORGE EUSTICE (Conservative) See above.
MICHAEL FOSTER (Labour) Literary and media agent.
JULIA GOLDSWORTHY (Liberal Democrat) Born 1978, Camborne. Educated at Truro School and Cambridge University. MP for Falmouth and Camborne 2005-2010. Contested Camborne and Redruth 2010.
ROBERT SMITH (UKIP) Psychologist. Contested Devon and Cornwall Police Commissioner election 2012.
GEOFF GARBETT (Green) Educated at Glamorgan University. University lecturer. Contested Taunton 1979.
LOVEDAY JENKIN (Mebyon Kernow) Educated at Helston Grammar School and Cardiff University. Lecturer. Former Kerrier councillor, Cornwall councillor since 2011. Contested Camborne and Redruth 2010.
Links
Comments - 386 Responses on “Camborne & Redruth”
  1. David Mudd was an extremely popular local MP in Falmouth and Camborne back in the 70s and 80s and I suspect he carried a personal vote much larger than the natural level of support for the Tories in this part of the world, which is probably what saw him reach five figure majorities more than once. Once he retired, the Tories’ problems began, and I’m convinced that having Sebastian Coe brought in from outside the area as his successor was a real double-edged sword. In any case, I would say this seat is naturally marginal for whoever has it.

  2. @Catholicleft

    The Labour share of the Ashcroft poll is identical now to what it was in June (24%), despite well over half of the constituents having been contacted by Labour. I think Labour would have expected to make some progress, particularly in light of the UKIP collapse.

  3. Good spot James. In fact if you compare Ashcroft in June 14 and now, the only statistically significant change is a Conservative increase +8 and a UKIP decline -10.

    3 possible reasons for UKIPs collapse here.

    A general national decline in their polling from their post Euro Election peak
    The removal of the previous UKIP candidate (and his subsequent conviction for animal cruelty).
    Eustice buffing up his anti Europe credentials as hard as he can.

    Worth also noting that Eustice’s poll rating is identical to his 2010 result at 37%. Not for the first time it looks like this seat covering this area will be won by someone getting barely over 35% of the vote. No wonder he is such a firm advocate of FPTP!

  4. @stephenpt

    I don’t think it’s just a question of the candidate problem for UKIP, because they’ve fallen in all of the other three Cornish seats polled by Lord Ashcroft in March 2015.

    They have fallen by ~10 points in North Cornwall and St Ives, compared to the June 2014 polls of those seats (both of those were also polled in September).

    The UKIP fall in St Austell & Newquay is not as great (5 points since June), but still significant.

  5. James – fair point.

    I looks like these are clearly worrying signs for UKIP supporters in the West Country, where I believe they fancied their chances. At this rate, they will be struggling to break out of their east coast beachheads (see my posting just on South Thanet).

  6. The BBC are, hilariously, calling this a 4 way marginal.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32131029

  7. The inconsistency on that page is breathtaking Neil, given that they also define a marginal and quote a poll that puts Con miles ahead.

  8. James, in the last poll, Labour were not the clear challenger – now they are and that makes a real difference to the campaign. The Tories hold, but Labour will do better than 24%.

  9. Potential Lib Dem gain here? UKIP is likely to tap into a chunk of the Tory vote, and I can’t see that many Lib Dem voters switching to Labour.

    Something like:
    Liberal Democrat: 32%
    Conservative: 31%
    Labour: 20%
    UKIP: 15%
    Others: 2%

  10. You obviously don’t believe Ashcroft polls Clive! (but in a different way to most people….)

  11. Goldsworthy was decent from a memory of her on BBC QT. Are there many defeated LD MPs trying again? I can only think of here and NA, whereas there’s quite a few Labour ones bidding to make a comeback [I realise they lost more seats in 2010]

  12. @Catholicleft

    ‘in the last poll, Labour were not the clear challenger – now they are and that makes a real difference to the campaign’

    It doesn’t feel like that on the ground here. The Lib Dems are holding their end up surprisingly well in the poster war, although Labour can afford larger placards courtesy of the £100,000+ that Foster has put into his campaign. But Goldsworthy’s also not short of a bob or two even though she may be short of a few activists compared to last time – see https://psephologyfromtheperiphery.wordpress.com/2015/04/25/party-donations-in-cornwall-update/

    I would predict that sufficient voters will do the familiar thing and return to the Lib Dems to deny Foster victory and maybe even hold on to 2nd place despite the polls. (The Ukip campaign has been virtually invisible incidentally.)

  13. Having attended a few of the hustings I knew Foster would have an outburst at some stage. Admittedly, I did not attend this hustings but from what I have heard it is true that he swore at the Mebyon Kernow candiate. I am just interested to see how he will play this. http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3055702/Labour-candidate-accused-launching-vile-rant-challenged-1-5-million-home-rival-local-hustings.html

  14. Real picture of Poster war on ground:

    Lab 4/10

    Tory 3/10 including a lot of Fields (always assumed Cows would vote Green!)

    LD 1/10

    UKIP 1/10

    A couple of MK and Green

  15. Conservative Hold. 3,500 maj.

  16. Clearly quite a good Labour result (and a very good Tory one).

    It is not inconceivable that Labour could make this quite close at some point.

    More agony for the Lib Dems. Imagine standing again as the ex MP and being fourth.

  17. I predicted this wrong though.
    It does look like it’ll probably remain C.


    Joe James B

    2015
    Anderson(Lab) 10,851
    Mountshaft (UKIP) 10,795
    *Eustice (Con) 10,791
    Goldsworthy (LD) 6,713
    Browne (MK) 1,864
    McGuinness (SF) 101

    Labour GAIN
    Maj 56

    October 10th, 2013 at 12:45 pm

    H.Hemmelig

    Mountshaft? Your invented names are sometimes quite Freudian I think.

    October 10th, 2013 at 1:31 pm”

  18. The Tories have taken a seat from UKIP who’s vote utterly collapsed. From a standing start the LD surged 29% and almost won. They also did extremely well in a by-election in Witney. The LD cheerleaders online have labelled it a sign of the #LDfightback. However it must be said that they are putting a huge amount of effort in local by-elections and in small wards with a low turnout this could be the reason for the excellent results.

  19. I am not sure about the “huge amount of effort”…. there has been no mobilisation of forces from a wider area (which would have happened in the Rennard days). If the party really threw its weight into these fights this would not have been a near miss..

    But I agree the real story here is the UKIP collapse.. I notice in a couple of seats commentators are still musing upon the UKIP as a threat.. they really need to pull their finger out in they are not going to show massive shrinkage in their council base.. and where is Nigel these days…? Has he gone off to be Donald Trump’s warm-up act?

  20. by-elections often throw up weird results – I wouldn’t read anything into them personally.

    Have to agree UKIP are the big story. Wonder if they’ll do a BNP over the next few years and lose (almost) all their seats

  21. The main reason why UKIP collapsed here from speaking to the local branch members was the complete lack of a ground campaign. The former councillor was a very good one, but the guy they picked to teplace him was divisive and there were problems with infighting. Any talk of a BNP like collapse is nonsense, for one thing UKIP has a wider support base and are far bigger than the BNP ever were. To compare the two parties has never made sense , but it makes even less sense now.

  22. Thorshammer… can you run that by us again…? divisive, infighting, poor organisation but not the BNP… what am I missing here?

  23. You are missing the fact that the problem is isolated to this branch. There has been a lot of overblowing of squabbles in UKIP by the media, it’s mostly nonsense. You’re also missing the large amount of support , the controlling of a council and having an MP . Poor organisation tends to only be an issue in certain branches , I’ve seen very bad and very good. Devisive? All parties are divisive otherwise they wouldn’t exist.

  24. I apologise for typos (on a phone)

  25. Haven’t most of the local by-elections since May, especially where UKIP are defending seats, been pretty poor for them?

  26. Simon… yes,, all of them… UKIP has had the stuffing knocked out of them.. interesting also that it appears that UKIP councillors are just “giving up” whereas most of the other by-elections have been called by death or the councillors becoming MPs (particular the Scottish by-elections).

    Camborne is a microcosm of the broader UKIP problem.. UKIP have shattered into a thousand pieces in NW Hants (and did so spectacularly before the elections). There is zero sign of rebuilding and all the signs that their two County Councillors in Andover are going to the chop in the next HCC elections (if one doesn’t bail beforehand).

  27. I think UKIP is still polling above the Lib Dems despite their internal fighting and poor local by-elections. They will benefit from Corbyn’s victory and from the Euro referendum, midterm government unpopularity and the 2019 euro elections when they come round. I don’t think it means much that they are invisible at the moment because they have a strong capacity to rebound. The biggest question is whether they can grow out of being the Farage appreciation society.

  28. Exactly Hemmelig ( assuming the EU ref is a yes vote ) . UKIP does have an issue with being percieved as a one man band, mostly because Nigel is such a domanating figure and personality. The local by elections where UKIP are strong have not shown the same trend. For example they held in Tendring council. There is a byelection happening in Thurrock council which should be a good indicator as to how well UKIP are doing in target seats. I don’t know how Corbyn will effect us, but we’ll find out.

  29. UKIP are the clear, if not particuarly close, challenger here.

    Now that the General Election is out of the way, UKIP have a lot of hard work to do to set up an organisation appropriate for an established party. This includes things like training local and national candidates and making sure that they don’t pick people who will slip on metaphorical banana skins.

    I have posted about this in some detail on the North Thanet and South Thanet threads.

    UKIP need to follow the adage that the day to start preparing for the next election is the day after the last one.

  30. I am sorry, I have just mis-analysed this, ignoring Labour’s second place. If there is a considerable swing to Labour in 2020 they could of course win this seat, although at present many of us don’t think his very liekly.

    Camborne and Redruth is Number 45 on UKIP’s target list and Number 86 on Labour’s target list.

  31. “Now that the General Election is out of the way, UKIP have a lot of hard work to do to set up an organisation appropriate for an established party. This includes things like training local and national candidates and making sure that they don’t pick people who will slip on metaphorical banana skins”.

    UKIP have been around for decades and a presence for at least ten years. If they haven’t got organised yet it may be a bit late in the piece.. I am suspecting there will be drift from UKIP of veteran activists back to the Tories (or off to the nursing home).

  32. That makes the Liberal Democrats the biggest group on Cornwall County Council.

  33. Lib Dems gain Four Lanes ward from UKIP

    LD 300
    Ind 144
    Con 128
    Lab 125
    Meb K 111
    UKIP 57

    Read more: http://vote-2012.proboards.com/thread/8557/elections-september-1st#ixzz4J5i2Dpeb

  34. Mebyon Kernow have confirmed that they will not be fielding any Candidates in the General Election, as the snap calling doesn’t give them time to finance or organise.

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