Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross

2015 Result:
Conservative: 2326 (6.8%)
Labour: 3061 (9%)
Lib Dem: 11987 (35.1%)
SNP: 15831 (46.3%)
UKIP: 981 (2.9%)
MAJORITY: 3844 (11.2%)

Category: Semi-marginal SNP seat

Geography:

Main population centres:

Profile:

Politics:


Current MP
PAUL MONAGHAN (SNP) First elected as MP for Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 3744 (13%)
Lab: 7081 (25%)
LDem: 11907 (41%)
SNP: 5516 (19%)
Oth: 520 (2%)
MAJ: 4826 (17%)
2005
Con: 2835 (10%)
Lab: 5789 (21%)
LDem: 13957 (50%)
SNP: 3686 (13%)
Oth: 1396 (5%)
MAJ: 8168 (30%)
2001*
Con: 3513 (14%)
Lab: 6297 (25%)
LDem: 9041 (36%)
SNP: 5273 (21%)
Oth: 743 (3%)
MAJ: 2744 (11%)
1997
Con: 3148 (11%)
Lab: 8122 (28%)
LDem: 10381 (36%)
SNP: 6710 (23%)
Oth: 811 (3%)
MAJ: 2259 (8%)

2015 Candidates
ALASTAIR GRAHAM (Conservative) Headmaster. Surrey Heath councillor since 2007. Contested Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross 2010.
JOHN ERSKINE (Labour) Educated at Dingwall Academy and Stirling University. Parliamentary assistant.
JOHN THURSO (Liberal Democrat) Born 1953, Thurso, the grandson of former Liberal leader Archibald Sinclair.. Educated at Eton. Chief executive of a hotel group. MP for Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross 2001 to 2015. The third Viscount Thurso, he sat in the House of Lords from 1995 until hereditary peers were removed in 1999. He is one of three hereditary peers to have sat in the Commons, but the only one who previously served in the Lords (the others are Viscount Hailsham (Douglas Hogg) and the Marquess of Lothian (Michael Ancram) - both of whom inherited their peerages when already MPs).
ANN MURRAY (UKIP)
PAUL MONAGHAN (SNP)
Links
Comments - 171 Responses on “Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross”
  1. Possible but unlikely, I think. If Monaghan really is too virulent for some, that could flip it just, but I don’t think so. It’s the best LD prospect outside of NEF, ED and EW, but that’s really not saying much.

  2. Unionist parties with bookies are favorites in these constituencies
    Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine 1/5 (CON)
    Berwickshire Roxburgh Selkirk 1/6 (CON)
    Caithness Sutherland Easter Ross 10/11 (LD)
    Dumfries & Galloway 1/6 CON
    Dumfriesshire Clydesdale Tweeddale 1/6 (CON)
    Dunbartonshire East 4/6 (LD)
    Edinburgh South 6/5 (LAB)
    Edinburgh West 1/2 (LD)
    Fife North East 10/11 (LD)
    Orkney Shetland 2/7 (LD)
    Renfrewshire East 8/13 (CON)
    There are other seats where its very close with the bookies such as Sterling, Ochil & South Perthshire, Perth and North Perthshire etc.

  3. Patrick, as interesting as the list is, there’s no need to post it on a handful of different threads. Maybe as it affects multiple Scottish seats just use the “European Scotland” page in future?

  4. I find it odd that the LDs are favorite here. Ah well.

    Also, sure Labour will lose Edinburgh South!

  5. Mr Pitt, what makes you so sure?

  6. SNP members have apparantly made an official complaint over Paul Monaghan and a potential misuse of parliamentary resources – https://www.buzzfeed.com/jamieross/snp-members-have-made-an-official-complaint-about-their?utm_term=.afaNj6q2kJ#.emxxXLnaZ5

  7. I can see a slightly surprising LD gain here. It will require some direct switching back from the SNP but that could happen here, where I doubt the cybernatty Paul Monaghan will have greatly impressed the mild mannered folk of the Highlands over the past two years.

  8. Agree with Jack. The highlands are coming home to the Libdems

  9. I would literally pay to see Monaghan lose his seat.

  10. The thing is Plop, tactical votes don’t really show up in the polls, at least until immediately before election day. IIRC the LDs outperformed their Scottish polls, most likely due to the fact that so much of the support was tactical (of course LDs voted tactically elsewhere, but the share was still underestimated).

  11. Iain is correct. LD vote will go tactically Tory (or in places SNP) in Tory/SNP marginals and Tory vote will go LD in SNP/LD marginals. Most of those people are still claiming they will vote for their main choices if called by pollsters now.

    And I just can’t see Murray holding Edinburgh South, Wreathy. Labour are collapsing, he’s relatively unimpressive… Honestly, Labour could be third there.

  12. In one of their “election eve” articles, The Guardian says the LDs are favorites here. My guess is they’re dead wrong, though Tory + LDs could together be above SNP here.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/jun/07/snp-anti-independence-nicola-sturgeon-angus-robertson

  13. Lib Dem gain

    SNP 9,017 – 29.2 %
    Liberal Democrat 11,061 – 35.8%

  14. Tain & Easter Ross local council by-election

    IND: 49.4% (+25.1)
    SNP: 23.9% (-4.6)
    LDEM: 14.5% (-8.8)
    CON: 9.1% (-10.1)
    IND: 2.7% (+2.7)
    LBT: 0.5% (+0.5)

  15. Was that 0.5% for the Lesbian, Bisexual and Transgender candidate??

  16. I’m guessing LBT stands for Libertarian.

  17. God no, LBT=Libertarian

  18. Another big drop in the Tory vote; after a long spell of big improvements across Scotland it looks like their vote is in retreat again. Is the shine coming off Ruth Davidson for some reason?

  19. I don’t think that one can infer almost anything about national politics from by-election results, especially where independents are doing well.

  20. Certainly not from one by-election. If exactly the same trend is seen in numerous by-elections in quick succession or simultaneously, then it’s more possible to make an inference. Last week’s saw the Tories do pretty badly in some wards but better in a couple of super-safe ones.

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