2015 Result:
Conservative: 6683 (16.6%)
Labour: 17864 (44.3%)
Lib Dem: 935 (2.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 5895 (14.6%)
Green: 937 (2.3%)
UKIP: 7791 (19.3%)
TUSC: 178 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 10073 (25%)

Category: Very safe Labour seat

Geography: Wales ,Gwent. Part of the Caerphilly council area.

Main population centres: Caerphilly, Hengoed, Ystrad Mynach, Llanbradach.

Profile: The southern part of the Rhymney valley, stretching down towards Caerphilly itself and the rural hinterland of Cardiff. Like most of the south Welsh valleys this is a former coal mining area. Caerphilly is the largest settlement, a former industrial town to the south of the constituency, which is now a commuter town for Cardiff.

Politics: Like most of the Welsh Valleys this is a safe Labour seat, held by the party since its creation in 1918 with the brief exception of its MP`s defection to the SDP in 1981. Its best known former MP is the former Welsh Secretary Ron Davies, who fell from grace after being mugged on Clapham Common in unclear circumstances, and in a second incident being found in a cruising spot near a motorway lay-by where he claimed he was "watching badgers". Davies later resigned from the Labour party, and after a period in John Marek`s Forward Wales party and as an Independent joined Plaid Cymru, who he contested this seat for in the 2011 Welsh Assembly elections.

Current MP
WAYNE DAVID (Labour) Born 1957, Bridgend. Educated at Cynffig Comprehensive School and Cardiff University. Former teacher. Contested MEP for South Wales 1989-1999, Contested Rhondda 1999 Welsh Assembly election. First elected as MP for Caerphilly in 2001. PPS to Adam Ingram until 2006. Government whip 2007-2008, Under-Secretary for Wales 2008-2010. Shadow Europe Minister 2010-2011. David was one of the PPSs who resigned in 2006, forcing Tony Blair to give a date he would step down as Prime Minister.
Past Results
Con: 6622 (17%)
Lab: 17377 (45%)
LDem: 5688 (15%)
PC: 6460 (17%)
Oth: 2545 (7%)
MAJ: 10755 (28%)
Con: 5711 (15%)
Lab: 22190 (57%)
LDem: 3861 (10%)
PC: 6831 (17%)
Oth: 636 (2%)
MAJ: 15359 (39%)
Con: 4413 (11%)
Lab: 22597 (58%)
LDem: 3649 (9%)
PC: 8172 (21%)
MAJ: 14425 (37%)
Con: 4858 (11%)
Lab: 30697 (68%)
LDem: 3724 (8%)
PC: 4383 (10%)
Oth: 1607 (4%)
MAJ: 25839 (57%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

2015 Candidates
LEO DOCHERTY (Conservative)
WAYNE DAVID (Labour) See above.
ALADDIN AYESH (Liberal Democrat)
Comments - 16 Responses on “Caerphilly”
  1. And why wouldn’t the ructions in the Caerphilly council and the CC (that is run by Labour and Independents) wash back against Labour in this and the other Carmarthen constituencies?

  2. My forecast for 2015 here

    Lab 50
    PC 19
    Con 12
    UKIP 9
    LD 5
    Others 5

  3. Ongoing sleaze on CC doesn’t seem to be doing Labour any favours..

    Blackwood on Caerphilly (Labour Defence)
    Result: Lab 620 (41% -10%), Ind 477 (32% +6%), Plaid 349 (23% +9%), Con 68 (4% -4%)
    Labour HOLD with a majority of 143 (9%) on a swing of 8% from Labour to Independent
    Turnout: 24.3%

  4. That ward is in Islwyn constituency. The Independent was a councillor for that ward from 2008 to 2012 when he lost his seat to Labour.

  5. Labous hold by a whisker in by-election in Carmarthenshire UA, Hengoed on 19 February 2015

    Labour 335 [33.2%; +7%]
    Plaid Cymru 313 [31%; +6.6%]
    UKIP 152 [15%; +15%]
    People First 80 [7.9%; -26.1%]
    Independent 76 [7.5%; +7.5%]
    Conservative 54 [5.3%; +5.3%]

    Majority: 22
    Turnout: 35.32%
    Labour Hold
    Percentage change since 2012

  6. That by-election was in Llanelli

  7. This is another seat in the South Wales valleys where the Labour vote seems to be in long term decline. Torfaen is another good example. Their vote share of 45% last time was poor – a drop of almost 20% since 1992 (which was hardly a good year for the party) and of fully 12% from 2005.

    Presumably this can be explained by the long term decline of industries in these areas, but also perhaps (in this seat) the proximity to Cardiff and the gradual shift towards being a dormitory town for that city.

    If the opposition to Labour was not so evenly split, Labour could conceivably be under a bit more pressure here.

  8. quite interesting that the tories were second. that does tend to suggest a small growth in middle-class commuters to cardiff within this seat as dr john suggests. in some ways it’s surprising it’s taken so long to happen.

  9. Labour Hold. 13,000 majority. Not sure whether Plaid or the Tories will come 2nd.

  10. Recent Community Council By-election in Penyrheol which is a predominantly impoverished ward and a Plaid stronghold

    Plaid Cymru 340 45.7%
    UKIP 168 22.6%
    Labour 236 31.7%
    Turnout 26.5%

    Constituency-wide we are currently looking at a close race between Labour and UKIP, with the Conservatives and Plaid in a fight for third place.

  11. Former MP and welsh secretary Ron Davies is standing in a by election here, i wonder how well he’ll do. Could it be close? (he came a distant 5th in 2012 to labour)

  12. Bedwas, Trethomas and Machen by-election

    Jones, Lisa (Welsh Labour) 1,002
    Davies, Ron (Plaid Cymru) 509
    Douglas, Bobby (UKIP) 223
    Dew, John James (Independent) 184
    Lukins, Rita (Welsh Conservative Party) 119
    Davies, Ray (Independent) 106

  13. The local MP’s thoughts on immigrants in his constituency:

    “I mean, I think the only people who have coloured skin, if you like, are people who run takeaways”.

  14. It is a good thing he did not say that today or he would be deselected.

  15. Looking at the big drop in Lab vote in last year’s assembly elections and the 36% combined Con/UKIP vote I wonder is there any possibility this could be one of the bigger shock results in June?

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