Bury St Edmunds

2015 Result:
Conservative: 31815 (53.6%)
Labour: 10514 (17.7%)
Lib Dem: 3581 (6%)
Green: 4692 (7.9%)
UKIP: 8739 (14.7%)
MAJORITY: 21301 (35.9%)

Category: Ultra-safe Conservative seat

Geography: Eastern, Suffolk. Part of St Edmundsbury and Mid Suffolk council areas.

Main population centres:

Profile:

Politics: A safe Conservative seat, continously returning Tory MPs since 1885.


Current MP
JOHANNA CHURCHILL (Conservative) First elected as MP for Bury St Edmunds in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 27899 (48%)
Lab: 9776 (17%)
LDem: 15519 (26%)
UKIP: 3003 (5%)
Oth: 2521 (4%)
MAJ: 12380 (21%)
2005*
Con: 24332 (46%)
Lab: 14402 (27%)
LDem: 10423 (20%)
UKIP: 1859 (4%)
Oth: 1603 (3%)
MAJ: 9930 (19%)
2001
Con: 21850 (43%)
Lab: 19347 (38%)
LDem: 6998 (14%)
UKIP: 831 (2%)
Oth: 1231 (2%)
MAJ: 2503 (5%)
1997
Con: 21290 (38%)
Lab: 20922 (38%)
LDem: 10102 (18%)
Oth: 272 (0%)
MAJ: 368 (1%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
JOHANNA CHURCHILL (Conservative)
WILLIAM EDWARDS (Labour)
DAVID CHAPPELL (Liberal Democrat) Born 1953. Educated at Edinburgh University. Chartered surveyor. Former St Edmundsbury councillor. Contested Bury St Edmunds 2005, 2010.
JOHN HOWLETT (UKIP) Contested Bury St Edmunds 2005, 2010.
HELEN GEAKE (Green)
Links
Comments - 163 Responses on “Bury St Edmunds”
  1. Does anyone else agree, within 3% either way, with my current estimate? Also, I would appreciate some feedback and reasons why, if anyone would be willing to do so. Thanks.

    CON 40
    LAB 20
    LD 16
    GRN 13
    UKIP 10

  2. A trebled Green vote? Such ludicrous over-optimism will lead to very serious disappointment in 2 years’ time & possibly other serious health problems.

  3. On the vote 2012 proboards sight there was some discussion of this area being an area of interest to the Greens and being an area of high Tory/Lib Dem vote share, like in the CC elections shouldn’t the Greens be able to take some of this Barnaby? Especially if they focused on this area? What would you put the various parties at?

  4. One of the golden rules of interacting with anybody, anywhere on the internet is: Don’t feed the troll.

    This site would be the richer for our esteemed comment-ors to bear that in mind…no matter how ridiculous or frustrating the childish comments which have sprung up lately seem to be.

  5. A troll?

  6. Actually hoping that the only party left to represent your views would show some decent progress is trolling is it? Maybe I’ve been too optimistic sometimes but it’s called hope. Look at what Labour achieved in 26 years; you think me hearing we could have good progress here and being generous with the numbers as a result is trolling? Really, some of you guys are way too quick to attack people. Am I throwing around bets here there and everywhere or randomly coming out with figures to get attention? No. So if you’re not going to help me and further the discussion in a civil way, then just leave off please.

  7. I think that people need to respect everyone’s predictions. I personally believe that the Greens will retain their deposit here and approach 10% as they do have significant popularity locally. Mark Ereira-Guyer lost by under 1% here for Labour in 1997, and will probably be the candidate for the Greens in 2015. The Greens attract a degree of agrarian support around here.

    I doubt that WINDSOFCHANGE is a ‘troll’. I thought that this site was for reasonable discussion about politics.

  8. Reasonable is the word. There is no point making grossly over-optimistic predictions. They are capable of making you look silly both when you make them, and when the results are in. The Greens received some protest votes when Labour chose to start the war in Iraq, and brought in policies which were unpopular with, especially, students: the party leader has now expressed his regret about the former, and is now much less unpopular than the Lib Dems (who of course also received large chunks of the student & liberal/radical vote) on the latter. Some of these votes – and there aren’t that many of them to start with – will now return to Labour, especially in seats which are seen as marginal. There is still a niche for the Green Party, and Labour’s admission that some austerity policies will continue will add to their support a bit, but they just won’t go sharply up other than in a very tiny number of seats such as Norwich S where the demography & voting history are conducive to them. Don’t expect a big Green vote in seats like Nuneaton or Stroud in a general election when Labour will squeeze them hard.

  9. Ok, so many potential Green voters will vote Labour by default in GEs, which is why theoretically my predictions are feasible but practically they just won’t happen?

  10. @Barnaby Marder

    I don’t think that around 7-9% is a grossly optimistic prediction at all. I do not support the Greens, therefore I have no reason to put forward grand predictions unnecessarily. I agree that the Green Party won’t do as well as they do locally, but doubling their share seems perfectly realistic. This was one of their strongest performances in 2010 and does have favourable demographics. The voter base of the Greens is very middle-class and tends to care about important local issues such as over-development. Some Tories who are anti the wrecking of the countryside by the government will vote Green or UKIP as both are known for being anti over development in rural areas. This will be helped by the platform of the local Green and UKIP councillors in Suffolk.

  11. I cant see tories backing greens nationally anymore. 10 years ago perhaps.

  12. Only a few Tories (2% of voters in Bury St Edmunds perhaps). The Greens have without a doubt gone out of fashion, Purple is the new Green in many places now.

  13. “One of the golden rules of interacting with anybody, anywhere on the internet is: Don’t feed the troll.

    This site would be the richer for our esteemed comment-ors to bear that in mind…no matter how ridiculous or frustrating the childish comments which have sprung up lately seem to be.”

    A good post Robberbutton and this time we should all try to do what you suggest.

  14. Have you something to say H Hemmelig? I’d have thought you had better things to do than make petty little comments and snide remarks about me.

  15. Also, won’t Labour and LD agreement on austerity boost Green vote share in a seat like this- if so how much? Generally across the country will this damage Labour’s prospects or just scrape them- won’t this set off protests from the left like over Iraq (though obviously not on the scale of war)?

  16. can we stop going on about the greens chances please big yawn

  17. I see the site is being carpet bombed by silly comments again, rendering it unreadable once more

  18. I am not a fan personally of David Ruffley, but I cannot see an 8% drop in his vote or a trebling of the Green vote. My prediction would be more like:

    Con – 45
    Lab – 21
    UKIP – 12
    LD – 12
    Grn – 8
    Oth – 2

  19. Thanks Matt. At least my predictions aren’t completely ridiculous 🙂 Out of interest, is that 8% on a normal day or a particularly good day?

  20. Why only a 3% drop considering the Tories have never been in a worse state post war? I expect to see drops of over 1997 proportions.

  21. So 111 do you think my estimate of Tories on 40% here is fair then?

  22. Well, the GE isn’t happening tomorrow, we are still in mid term, and to mind, polling 33% in the latest YouGov poll puts them ahead of what they got in 1997 and 2001.

    Your hatred of them might make you WANT them to be “in a worse state post war”, but the recent polls do not bear this out.

  23. Surely 10% Green vote is fine though Barnaby- I did say +/- 3%?

  24. 111

    Absolute nonsense. Total piffle.

    Compare 1995 with 40 point deficits in the poll to today where it was what, 6? We are very much in the game going into 2015. Far too early to call but I can guarantee that we will do better than 1997 barring something horrible unforseen (and even then I doubt we will do worse)

  25. Id have a guess at:

    Con 47
    LD 20
    Lab 20
    UKIP 8

  26. Cons 31
    Green 29
    Lab 23
    UKIP 10
    Ld 7

    Happy now?

  27. I’d be very pleased with that actually but unfortunately it won’t happen.

  28. Revised estimate:
    CON 41
    LAB 22
    LD 19
    UKIP 11
    GRN 8

  29. Like almost everywhere else, the UKIP vote is the hardest to predict. The debate the Conservative share of the vote is a bit irrelevant: 35:40:45: as David will be re-elected in this safe seat.

    With a good candidate Labour might top 20% but the Liberal Democrat vote will be down. If Tony Flood is the UKIP candidate expect a lively campaign. He would be good on the doorstep and candidates meetings certain to be entertaining!

    The Greens will struggle to save their deposit.

  30. Could this be the only seat where Ukip and the greens both save their deposits?

  31. Well UKIP will save their deposit in most places they stand – so the best thing to do is think where the greens will hold there deposit. They only held 6 deposits in 2010 – and these tend to be in weak UKIP areas. I think they will probably lose ground in a rural conservative seat like this.

    Maybe somewhere like Norwich South – if UKIP manage to just hit 5 there. Maybe Brighton Kemptown too – UKIP managed 3.2% there in 2010, so should be hitting 5 in 2015.

    Hove, Pavilion, Lewisham Deptford in addition to the two above make 5 of the 6 held deposits for the Greens. Pavilioln and Deptford are weak for UKIP – with Hove being weakish. Can’t think of the 6th of the top of my head.

  32. their deposit*

  33. Brighton Kemptown clearly has UKIP potential in the Saltdean, Peacehaven & Telscombe Cliffs areas but more or less none at all closer in towards Brighton itself.

  34. UKIP is unlikely to retain its deposit in Deptford and Pavilion, but I think that they will do in Hove. UKIP could approach 10% (say 8%) in Kemptown though methinks.

    The Greens should hold their deposit here as they have maintained their local presence here throughout the UKIP surge. In fact I can see them getting around 8% if they stand Mark Ereira-Guyer again.

  35. Apologies for calling Julian Flood ‘Tony’. I mixed him up with Tony Brown, who may be the UKIP candidate in neighbouring West Suffolk. Both are Suffolk county councillors and Tony Brown has recently been elected to St Edmundsbury Borough Council in a by election in Haverhill.

    Tony won 53% of the vote, Labour trailed in second with the Conservatives only third in what had been their seat.

  36. forecast for 2015

    Con 39
    UKIP 21
    Lab 19
    LD 15
    Others 6

  37. Mark Ereira-Guyer reselected for the Greens.

  38. I stand corrected. Guyer is standing in Ipswich.

  39. “I mixed him up with Tony Brown, who may be the UKIP candidate in neighbouring West Suffolk.”

    Tony Brown sounds like he should be a Labour candidate!

  40. This has got to be averagely decent territory for UKIP. We could be looking at something like:-

    Conservative: 45%
    Labour Party: 21%
    Liberal Democrat: 18%
    UKIP: 10%
    Green: 3%
    Others: 3%

  41. Suffolk is quite interesting electorally. It contains five ‘safe’ Tory seats but in not one of them did the Tories manage over 51% of the vote in 2010. The fairly reasonable anti-Tory vote has not been able to coalesce decisively enough around Labour or the Lib Dems.

  42. Sir Eldon Griffiths died on 3rd June at the age of 89.

  43. RIP Sir Eldon.
    I disagree slightly with Clive G – I think the Tory share could increase a bit here. The Labour and UKIP figures look pretty fair although maybe Labour can do somewhat better than that.

  44. “Former shadow police minister David Ruffley, 52, admitted domestic violence after a night in the cells.”

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2664189/Tory-MPs-night-cells-attacking-girlfriend-row-flat.html

  45. Call me old fashioned but there’s no excuse for beating up a woman (that goes for Andrew Pelling as well), and MPs should set an example if they seriously expect the country to take notice of their regular condemnations of domestic violence.

    Ruffley should be deselected immediately and hopefully charged.

  46. I agree that he should be deselected Hemmelig, although I’m inclined to take the specifics with a large dose of salt.

    Even with a fairly lax justice system, and even taking into account that the offender is a sitting MP for a party with which the Met is already in poor standing with, people do not get away with cautions for “beating up a woman”. They might well end up with a meaningless sentence, but it would certainly have gone to trial if as described.

    I’d go along with something like A Brown’s prediction if Ruffley still stands, and something closer to Matt’s if he doesn’t.

  47. To be fair to him – he has had very serious mental health issues (including an attempted suicide) and these cannot be ignored. I agree that this incident still may merit deselection.

  48. I think he ought to be deselected, not just for the above incident (though on its own that does merit deselection) but because someone who is clearly still not in a very stable way cannot effectively represent their constituents.

  49. “To be fair to him – he has had very serious mental health issues (including an attempted suicide) and these cannot be ignored.”

    Mental health issues are no excuse for domestic violence.

    Are you aware how many people sent to jail have “mental health issues”? The excuse obviously doesn’t wash for ordinary people and nor should it for an MP.

    All the press reports I’ve ever read about David Ruffley leave me thinking that he’s a vile bully.

  50. I hate violence of any sort against women, and I am upset if Mr. Ruffley has really done this. I understand his well-documented personal problems in recent times and all the rest of it, but if you’re an MP nowadays you can’t really get away with this. I also have to say that also nowadays in most ordinary everyday jobs that if it was found out in a workplace that a man had beaten up his wife, he’d be sacked on the spot, and so he should.

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