Bury St Edmunds

2015 Result:
Conservative: 31815 (53.6%)
Labour: 10514 (17.7%)
Lib Dem: 3581 (6%)
Green: 4692 (7.9%)
UKIP: 8739 (14.7%)
MAJORITY: 21301 (35.9%)

Category: Ultra-safe Conservative seat

Geography: Eastern, Suffolk. Part of St Edmundsbury and Mid Suffolk council areas.

Main population centres:

Profile:

Politics: A safe Conservative seat, continously returning Tory MPs since 1885.


Current MP
JOHANNA CHURCHILL (Conservative) First elected as MP for Bury St Edmunds in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 27899 (48%)
Lab: 9776 (17%)
LDem: 15519 (26%)
UKIP: 3003 (5%)
Oth: 2521 (4%)
MAJ: 12380 (21%)
2005*
Con: 24332 (46%)
Lab: 14402 (27%)
LDem: 10423 (20%)
UKIP: 1859 (4%)
Oth: 1603 (3%)
MAJ: 9930 (19%)
2001
Con: 21850 (43%)
Lab: 19347 (38%)
LDem: 6998 (14%)
UKIP: 831 (2%)
Oth: 1231 (2%)
MAJ: 2503 (5%)
1997
Con: 21290 (38%)
Lab: 20922 (38%)
LDem: 10102 (18%)
Oth: 272 (0%)
MAJ: 368 (1%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
JOHANNA CHURCHILL (Conservative)
WILLIAM EDWARDS (Labour)
DAVID CHAPPELL (Liberal Democrat) Born 1953. Educated at Edinburgh University. Chartered surveyor. Former St Edmundsbury councillor. Contested Bury St Edmunds 2005, 2010.
JOHN HOWLETT (UKIP) Contested Bury St Edmunds 2005, 2010.
HELEN GEAKE (Green)
Links
Comments - 163 Responses on “Bury St Edmunds”
  1. Since the representation of this seat was reduced to one member on 1885, it has always returned a Conservative MP. At the last election when there were tow MPs elected, in 1880, one was Conservative and one was Liberal, as had frequently been the case at previous elections.

    It is difficult to see the Tories being defeated here in the foreseeable future.

  2. “I wonder if there is a large crossover between Green local voters and Conservative general voters however odd that may sound given the massive gulf between the parties.”

    The Greens missed a trick by shifting to the left. Their current leader was bragging a few years ago about them being of radical left and much of its moderates are drowned out by ‘watermelons’. They once had potential to tap into parts of the rural/semi-rural conservative vote if it wasn’t for that shift.

  3. ‘Since the representation of this seat was reduced to one member on 1885, it has always returned a Conservative MP.’

    In 1906 it was the only seat in the whole of East Anglia not to go Liberal

  4. @TimJones. Great Yarmouth voted Conservative in 1906 as well (though that later voted Liberal several times before WW2 and Labour several times after WW2).

  5. Quite a number of ports voted Conservative in 1906 because of defence issues. Dover in Kent was another example

  6. The Lib Dems were no doubt helped here by the fact their candidate was a local man, which was key to them getting their deposit back.

  7. The main reason why I’d like to ask The Results to stop doing predictions for 2020 is not because I don’t like predictions in general but because talking about 2020 is making me feel as if it’s nearly 2020 already and I don’t want to feel five years older yet!

  8. Coming fourth in a seat like Bury St. Edmunds cannot be seen as anything but a bad result.

  9. I think the Greens would see coming fourth here and comfortably saving their deposit as a reasonably decent result.

  10. ‘Great Yarmouth voted Conservative in 1906 as well (though that later voted Liberal several times before WW2 and Labour several times after WW2).’

    You’re right it did

    I didn’t realise the Liberals were once so popular in an area they have very little support in today

    ‘talking about 2020 is making me feel as if it’s nearly 2020 already and I don’t want to feel five years older yet’

    Surely a better reason is that a hell of a lot can happen between now and 2020

    If a week is a long time in politics, five years is an eon and until we know who Labour are going to elect as leader, how the government’s policies will go down with the electorate, how the EU referendum will be resolved etc, any guess on how 2020 will turn out is based on pure speculation

  11. Thought I would pop back here to post a link to this interesting article describing an experiment conducted in the Thedwastre North county division into the effectiveness of election campaign activity.

    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/do-party-leaflets-and-canvass-visits-increase-turnout/

    The results suggests that election leaflets do have the effect of increasing turnout, but that the effect does not apply among those who vote by post.

  12. Conservatives lost Mid-Suffolk to NOC. Appears that the Greens are now the main opposition.

  13. …That is unless they form a minority administration with others.

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