Bury South

2015 Result:
Conservative: 16350 (34.6%)
Labour: 21272 (45.1%)
Lib Dem: 1690 (3.6%)
Green: 1434 (3%)
UKIP: 6299 (13.3%)
Others: 170 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 4922 (10.4%)

Category: Safe Labour seat

Geography: North West, Greater Manchester. Part of the Bury council area.

Main population centres: Radcliffe, Prestwich, Whitefield, Ainsworth.

Profile: The southern part of the borough of Bury (the actual town of Bury is almost wholly within Bury North). The seat covers three towns in the Irwell valley, all towns with an industrial past as mill towns (and papermaking in the case of Radcliffe) but which have continued to grow as residential suburbs despite the decline of heavy industry. There is a large Jewish community in Prestwich, and the seat as a whole has the highest proportion of Jewish residents of any seat outside London and the South East.

Politics: A Labour leaning marginal, the seat was held by the Consevatives right up until 1997, but they lost on a large swing in 1997 and while the Conservatives achieved an above average swing in 2010 it was not enough to overcome the large majority built up by Ivan Lewis.


Current MP
IVAN LEWIS (Labour) Born 1967, Prestwich. Educated at William Hulme Grammar School. Former chief executive of Manchester Jewish Federation. First elected as MP for Bury South in 1997. Junior minister at Department of Education and Skills 2003-2005, Economic Secretary 2005-2006, Junior health minister 2006-2008, junior international development minister 2008-2009, Minister of State for Foreign Affairs 2009-2010. Shadow Culture Secretary 2010-2011. Shadow Secretary of State for International Development 2011-2013, Shadow Northern Ireland Secretary 2013-2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 16216 (34%)
Lab: 19508 (40%)
LDem: 8796 (18%)
BNP: 1743 (4%)
Oth: 2004 (4%)
MAJ: 3292 (7%)
2005*
Con: 10829 (28%)
Lab: 19741 (50%)
LDem: 6968 (18%)
UKIP: 1059 (3%)
Oth: 557 (1%)
MAJ: 8912 (23%)
2001
Con: 10634 (27%)
Lab: 23406 (59%)
LDem: 5499 (14%)
MAJ: 12772 (32%)
1997
Con: 16225 (32%)
Lab: 28658 (57%)
LDem: 4227 (8%)
MAJ: 12433 (25%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
DANIEL CRITCHLOW (Conservative) Born Greater Manchester. Educated at Bury Church of England High School. Church of England vicar. Contested Wythenshawe and Sale East 2014 by-election.
IVAN LEWIS (Labour) See above.
PAUL ANKERS (Liberal Democrat) Contested Bolton North East 2010.
SEAMUS MARTIN (UKIP) Born 1966, Derry. Educated at Salford University.
GLYN HEATH (Green)
VALERIE MORRIS (English Democrat) Born 1966. Educated at Unsworth Comprehensive. Contested Bury South 2010.
Links
Comments - 61 Responses on “Bury South”
  1. Yes, it should be close here.

    It’s whether he can hold back the wave of voters going UKIP>Con.

  2. Iain L – that really is a bit disingenuous of you (“he’s no longer a Cllr”).

    Rob Largan was a Hammersmith Cllr until 3rd May 2017! Meaning that he was a Cllr when selected as PPC here.

    I don’t have a problem with him standing here – as I understand he grew up here, but a quick google shows several listings of him proclaiming that he’s a local there having lived there for over 6 years.

    As I said both are fine in their own right, but you can’t claim to be local in two places simultaneously.

    [I do however concede that the unexpected GE may have played a part – although we all know that H & F Cllrs are disproportionately parachuted into Northern seats at the last minute, as happened in the previous 5 GEs]

  3. Ivan Lewis has apologised if his approaches to a teenager were “unwelcome” but has denied through a statement from his lawyers that he ever sexually harassed any aides.

    [It sounds similar to 2007 when he apologised for bombarding a female aide with texts]

  4. Ivan is now Whipless pending an investigation into new allegations.

  5. Whipless sounds like a BDSM thing

  6. Allegations seem to have fizzled out. I hope that is because there are no more stories to come to light – but I doubt it. There is still much pressure on victims to keep quiet to avoid damaging their party (even though in such cases t is surely the perpetrator who is bringing the party into disrepute).

  7. I think it’s more of a case of complainants/victims contacting the police or the Party HQ now (most who went to the media did so because previous complaints were ignored).

    I’ve certainly heard of 3 more MPs who are worried and I haven’t seen any of their names mentioned (even in Guido’s comments which lists every rumour and conspiracy known to man).

  8. Labours mps?

  9. Besses ward by-election, 19.07.18:

    Labour 999 51% (down 9%)
    Conservative 708 (up 13%)
    ED 72
    LD 71
    Green 55
    UKIP 49

    11% Swing Lab to Cons.

    The Tory campaign here today was energetic. Their candidate only looked about 18 and my colleague tells me he saw a group that age in shorts leafleting at 5am!

    So whilst he was Jewish and as it’s Bury and the news this week that may be a slight reason, this ward is far less Jewish than other Bury wards. It contains 2 or 3 council estates and so it reminds me of the large Tory by-election swings in Leasowe, Wallasey and Kingstanding. Birmingham by equally energetic younger candidates.

  10. Local elections on a ward level are often more about effort than national factors, especially in wards which a party has taken for granted for donkeys years. In 2002, at the nadir of IDS’ leadership, I managed to get 30% of the vote in the Labour stronghold of Penge….the Tory vote there now is closer to 3%.

  11. Been a few good results in Bury South in local elections since last year. The locals in May showed a 6% swing to the Tories on 2014 and they picked up two wards from Labour, including Radcliffe North which has no Jewish community.

    The contrast with Bury North, where the momentum all seems to be with Labour, is quite noticeable.

Leave a Reply

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)