Bury North

2015 Result:
Conservative: 18970 (41.9%)
Labour: 18592 (41.1%)
Lib Dem: 932 (2.1%)
Green: 1141 (2.5%)
UKIP: 5595 (12.4%)
MAJORITY: 378 (0.8%)

Category: Ultra-marginal Conservative seat

Geography: North West, Greater Manchester. Part of Bury council area.

Main population centres: Bury, Ramsbottom, Tottington.

Profile: Covers three former Lancashire mill towns on the edge of the West Pennine Moors - Tottington, Ramsbottom and the vast majority of Bury itself. These are traditional towns that have remained comparatively affluent despite the decline of the textile industry and reinvented themselves as a Manchester commuter belt.

Politics: Bury North is a marginal between Labour and the Conservatives. It was won by Alistair Burt (now MP for North East Bedfordshire) upon its creation in 1983 but lost to Labour in the 1997 landslide. Labour retained the seat in 2001 and 2005 but their MP, David Chaytor, was caught up in the expenses scandal and stood down after it was revealed he had claimed mortgage expenses for a mortgage that had already been paid off. Chaytor was subsequently convicted of false accounting and sentenced to 18 months imprisonment. His seat was won by the Conservatives at the 2010 general election.

Current MP
DAVID NUTTALL (Conservative) Born 1962, Sheffield. Educated at Aston Comprehensive and London University. Former solicitor. Former Rotherham councillor. Contested Sheffield Hillsborough 1997, Yorkshire and Humberside 1999 European elections, Morecambe and Lunesdale 2001, Bury North 2005. First elected as MP for Bury North in 2010. He is one of the Conservative party's most rebellious MPs.
Past Results
Con: 18070 (40%)
Lab: 15827 (35%)
LDem: 7645 (17%)
BNP: 1825 (4%)
Oth: 1594 (4%)
MAJ: 2243 (5%)
Con: 16204 (36%)
Lab: 19130 (43%)
LDem: 6514 (15%)
BNP: 1790 (4%)
Oth: 801 (2%)
MAJ: 2926 (7%)
Con: 16413 (37%)
Lab: 22945 (51%)
LDem: 5430 (12%)
MAJ: 6532 (15%)
Con: 20657 (38%)
Lab: 28523 (52%)
LDem: 4536 (8%)
MAJ: 7866 (14%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

2015 Candidates
DAVID NUTTALL (Conservative) See above.
JAMES FRITH (Labour) Bury councillor since 2011.
RICHARD BAUM (Liberal Democrat) Born Bury. Educated at Birmingham University. Former Bury councillor. Contested Bury North 2010.
JOHN SOUTHWORTH (Green) Teacher.
Comments - 165 Responses on “Bury North”
  1. Some remarkably strong assertions/ predictions upthread that were laughably wrong. Not for the first time either.

  2. There were LOADS of seats where the total two main party vote (Tory+Labour) exceeded at least 90%- most of which of course had only the three candidates, with a paper Lib Dem for good measure, most of them also marginals or former marginals.

  3. Tristan – ConservativeEstimate’s comments at the top of this page are rather better. Not a bad analysis as it goes.

  4. Labour Cllr Mike Connolly has been suspended by the Party here after a report revealed that Council Officers were allegedly told not to reveal a Labour Cllr had been charged with child porn offences as it might damage Labour’s chances in the 2015 General Election here.

    The officers delayed 8 days longer before alerting the child protection team that the Cllr should not come into contact with minors while meeting groups as a Cllr.

    Ex-Lab Cllr Simon Carter was convicted later in 2015 and is due to appear in Court again.

    The Chief Executive and another senior Officer both resigned over the scandal:


  5. I found this a disappointing result.
    In fact, the Tories have struggled a bit here in 2010 and 2015.
    Bury South has been better for them on swings.

  6. You have to wonder if Nuttall was ever a very popular constituency MP. Even in 2015 his result was less good than others in the subregion for the Conservatives.

  7. Congrats to Andrew Teale, as the BCE recommend his counter proposal not to split Radcliffe – by creating a Radcliffe & Farnworth seat and a seat just named Bury.

    In Merseyside, there are no changes – Lpool Walton remains abolished.

  8. I think, that while the most likely outcome is Tory gain of both Bury seats, if Labour were to hold one it would be here. On MRP Labour are very slight ahead but 3% behind in Bury South.

  9. 11/10 on Bury North being a Tory gain if you’re feeling so confident

  10. Isn’t there a decent Jewish population in Bury? I’m not sure if Judaism is one of the parameters in the MRP model, and if so, whether there are enough Jews/enough seats with a significant Jewish community for the model to identify a trend which shows up in the estimates.

  11. Almost all in Bury South.

  12. Right-winger David Nuttall’s ejection from the House was one of the least talked-about subjects of the 2017 election

    Quite surprising he didn’t fancy his chances of taking the seat back with Johnson at the helm, particularly with current polls showing neighbouring Bury South more likely the go Blue this time round

  13. Even if the main parties were level nationally on 37%, it’d be a 13% Cons gain and a 5% Labour loss.

    Hence I’m not surprised to see predictions of Con gains in Bury, Derby, Dudley etc.

  14. You’re talking about council elections there I assume.

  15. All delayed elections in the North, ie city mayoral, metro, PCC, plus yes locals and by-elections.

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