Bury North

2015 Result:
Conservative: 18970 (41.9%)
Labour: 18592 (41.1%)
Lib Dem: 932 (2.1%)
Green: 1141 (2.5%)
UKIP: 5595 (12.4%)
MAJORITY: 378 (0.8%)

Category: Ultra-marginal Conservative seat

Geography: North West, Greater Manchester. Part of Bury council area.

Main population centres: Bury, Ramsbottom, Tottington.

Profile: Covers three former Lancashire mill towns on the edge of the West Pennine Moors - Tottington, Ramsbottom and the vast majority of Bury itself. These are traditional towns that have remained comparatively affluent despite the decline of the textile industry and reinvented themselves as a Manchester commuter belt.

Politics: Bury North is a marginal between Labour and the Conservatives. It was won by Alistair Burt (now MP for North East Bedfordshire) upon its creation in 1983 but lost to Labour in the 1997 landslide. Labour retained the seat in 2001 and 2005 but their MP, David Chaytor, was caught up in the expenses scandal and stood down after it was revealed he had claimed mortgage expenses for a mortgage that had already been paid off. Chaytor was subsequently convicted of false accounting and sentenced to 18 months imprisonment. His seat was won by the Conservatives at the 2010 general election.


Current MP
DAVID NUTTALL (Conservative) Born 1962, Sheffield. Educated at Aston Comprehensive and London University. Former solicitor. Former Rotherham councillor. Contested Sheffield Hillsborough 1997, Yorkshire and Humberside 1999 European elections, Morecambe and Lunesdale 2001, Bury North 2005. First elected as MP for Bury North in 2010. He is one of the Conservative party's most rebellious MPs.
Past Results
2010
Con: 18070 (40%)
Lab: 15827 (35%)
LDem: 7645 (17%)
BNP: 1825 (4%)
Oth: 1594 (4%)
MAJ: 2243 (5%)
2005*
Con: 16204 (36%)
Lab: 19130 (43%)
LDem: 6514 (15%)
BNP: 1790 (4%)
Oth: 801 (2%)
MAJ: 2926 (7%)
2001
Con: 16413 (37%)
Lab: 22945 (51%)
LDem: 5430 (12%)
MAJ: 6532 (15%)
1997
Con: 20657 (38%)
Lab: 28523 (52%)
LDem: 4536 (8%)
MAJ: 7866 (14%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
DAVID NUTTALL (Conservative) See above.
JAMES FRITH (Labour) Bury councillor since 2011.
RICHARD BAUM (Liberal Democrat) Born Bury. Educated at Birmingham University. Former Bury councillor. Contested Bury North 2010.
IAN HENDERSON (UKIP)
JOHN SOUTHWORTH (Green) Teacher.
Links
Comments - 158 Responses on “Bury North”
  1. Labour gain Bury North.

  2. This was not only a Labour gain but a swing of 5% since 2015.

    The other feature of this result was Con+ Lab being over 98% of the votes cast – is that the highest of any seat?

    Lab 53.6% (+12.5)
    Con 44.5% (+2.5)
    LD 1.9% (-0.2)

  3. Some remarkably strong assertions/ predictions upthread that were laughably wrong. Not for the first time either.

  4. There were LOADS of seats where the total two main party vote (Tory+Labour) exceeded at least 90%- most of which of course had only the three candidates, with a paper Lib Dem for good measure, most of them also marginals or former marginals.

  5. Tristan – ConservativeEstimate’s comments at the top of this page are rather better. Not a bad analysis as it goes.

  6. Labour Cllr Mike Connolly has been suspended by the Party here after a report revealed that Council Officers were allegedly told not to reveal a Labour Cllr had been charged with child porn offences as it might damage Labour’s chances in the 2015 General Election here.

    The officers delayed 8 days longer before alerting the child protection team that the Cllr should not come into contact with minors while meeting groups as a Cllr.

    Ex-Lab Cllr Simon Carter was convicted later in 2015 and is due to appear in Court again.

    The Chief Executive and another senior Officer both resigned over the scandal:

    http://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/two-bury-council-officers-deliberately-13362889

  7. I found this a disappointing result.
    In fact, the Tories have struggled a bit here in 2010 and 2015.
    Bury South has been better for them on swings.

  8. You have to wonder if Nuttall was ever a very popular constituency MP. Even in 2015 his result was less good than others in the subregion for the Conservatives.

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