Buckingham

2015 Result:
Conservative: 0 (0%)
Labour: 0 (0%)
Lib Dem: 0 (0%)
Green: 7400 (13.8%)
UKIP: 11675 (21.7%)
Speaker: 34617 (64.5%)
MAJORITY: 22942 (42.7%)

Category: Safe Speaker seat

Geography: South East, Buckinghamshire. Part of Aylesbury Vale council area and two wards from the Wycombe council area.

Main population centres: Buckingham, Winslow, Princes Risborough.

Profile: The constituency is made up of the patchwork of affluent villages in the Buckinghamshire countryside, covering most of the Vale of Aylesbury besides Aylesbury itself. Buckingham itself is a small market town, home to the first private university in the UK. Other population centres include the town of Winslow, Princes Risborough and villages such as Cuddington, Haddenham, Ludgershall, Stewkley and Steeple Claydon..

Politics: Rural Buckinghamshire is a rock solid Tory bulwark, the Conservative equivalent of Bootle or the Welsh Valleys for Labour. In the 1960s a seat of the same name was held by Labour (represented by newspaper publisher Robert Maxwell) but that was a very different seat which included Milton Keynes within its boundaries, the current seat could never be expected to vote Labour. The current MP John Bercow was elected Speaker in 2009 and Labour and the Liberal Democrats observed the rather intermittent convention of not contesting the Speakers seat at the 2010 election. Instead John Bercow was opposed by a selection of minor parties and independents - most successful amongst them Nigel Farage, the leader of UKIP who was injured in a plane crash on the day of the election, and John Stevens, the former Conservative MEP whose campaign sent a man dressed as a dolphin to persue Bercow during the campaign to draw attention to him allegedly "flipping" his home to claim expenses.


Current MP
JOHN BERCOW (-) Born 1963, Edgware. Educated at Finchley Manorhill School and Essex University. Former merchant banker and special advisor. Lambeth councillor 1986-1990. Contested Motherwell 1987, Bristol South 1992. First elected as MP for Buckingham in 1997. Shadow Chief Secretary 2001-2002, Shadow Secretary of state for Work and Pensions 2002. Shadow secretary of state for international development 2003-2005. Speaker of the House of Commons since 2009. Bercow has undergone a remarkable transition across the political spectrum - as a student he was a member of the right-wing Monday club, and secretary of their immigration and repatriation section, when first elected he was a combatative right-winger, however in later years he mellowed, expressing more liberal and left wing views and resigning from the frontbench under Iain Duncan Smith over the issue of gay rights. He was elected Speaker in 2009, supposedly largely on the back of support from Labour MPs.
Past Results
2010
Con: (0%)
Lab: (0%)
LDem: (0%)
UKIP: 8401 (17%)
Oth: 39934 (83%)
MAJ: 12529 (26%)
2005*
Con: 27748 (57%)
Lab: 9619 (20%)
LDem: 9508 (20%)
UKIP: 1432 (3%)
MAJ: 18129 (38%)
2001
Con: 24296 (54%)
Lab: 10971 (24%)
LDem: 9037 (20%)
UKIP: 968 (2%)
MAJ: 13325 (29%)
1997
Con: 24594 (50%)
Lab: 12208 (25%)
LDem: 12175 (25%)
Oth: 421 (1%)
MAJ: 12386 (25%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
DAVE FOWLER (UKIP) Plumber.
ALAN FRANCIS (Green) Contested Milton Keynes North 2010.
JOHN BERCOW (Speaker Seeking Re-election) See above.
Links
Comments - 297 Responses on “Buckingham”
  1. Incidentally, I’ve only just noticed that Bercow received fewer votes as Speaker in 2015 and not many more than if he’d just been the Tory PPC.

    Maybe a case of the more people see of him, the more dislike him.

    It’ll be interesting if he can see out the Parliament as Speaker. I doubt he’d want to give the Tories an extra seat so might try to hang on if only to annoy the MPs who hate him (and not just the well known Dorries, Fabricant & Burns).

  2. I have a couple friends who live here and they abstain rather than vote for any of the candidates in Buckingham see it as undemocratic

  3. They are right of course, but I wouldn’t feel to sorry for them because it’s a beautiful part of the world. And their local council is probably getting a good deal from the government…

  4. The LDs have selected a candidate here this time.

    Some context: the LDs haven’t always been very happy with the way Bercow has marginalised them in the Commons.

  5. Doesn’t this rather confirm the Lib Dems’ newfound status as a minor party?

  6. It is bad form for Bercow not to stand down in this election, he has been speaker for 8 years which is long enough.

  7. The local association were furious in 2015 especially they weren’t allowed to select, or rather, have their selection nominated.
    So, this is long-standing

  8. Jack S – surely the LDs marginalised themselves. Nothing to do with Bercow that they only won 8 seats.

    It’s precedent that the 2 largest opposition Parties get half of the Qs at PMQs.

    Bercow actually goes out of his way – by carrying on 45 mins – to ensure that the DUP and LD Leaders get Qs as well as more backbenchers.

  9. @Lancs Observer

    Yes, I agree. But that’s not how the LDs see it, and they get particularly annoyed that Nigel Dodds gets called seemingly more often than Farron does. Bercow does like to feed the ironic cheering that LD leaders have always got at PMQs by calling Farron last when he does call him…

  10. test

  11. Jack S – but again that’s simply cos the DUP won 9 seats in 2015 and the LDs only 8.

  12. The number of GE Candidates’ nominated (apologies for any omissions):

    Conservative & Unionist 637
    Labour 631
    Liberal Democrat 629
    Green 468
    UKIP 377
    Christian People’s Alliance 30
    Yorkshire 21
    Alliance 18
    SDLP 18
    Sinn Fein 18
    DUP 17
    UUP 14
    OMRLP 12
    BNP 11
    Pirate 10
    English Democrat 7
    Liberal 5
    NHAP 5
    PUP 1
    TUV 1
    NF 1

    Independent 169

  13. “apologies for any omissions”

    The whole of SNP and Plaid Cymru for a start!

  14. For some reason neither are on either the PA email or the BBC list – but I’d assume both are standing in all seats in their respective parts of the UK.

  15. I believe it is a part of the SNP’s constitution that they stand in every seat in Scotland. Not sure about Plaid but wouldn’t be surprised.

    Where’s the other seat the Lib Dems are standing aside? Buckingham, Brighton Pavilion and there must be one other.

    I know the Greens were trying to push their way through the progressive crowd in the Isle of Wight, maybe that’s the other seat? It would be a bit odd for the party to stand aside in a seat it has held within my lifetime.

  16. ”Where’s the other seat the Lib Dems are standing aside? Buckingham, Brighton Pavilion and there must be one other.”

    Skipton and Ripon lol. As part of their ‘progressive alliance’ with the Greens in return for the Greens stepping down in Harrogate and Knaresborough… Though I must say that is possibly the most ridiculous, most pointless deal that it was possible to dream up. The Tories will win Skipton and Ripon in a landslide and the Greens will still finish behind Labour. As for Harrogate did the Lib Dems not see the council election results there…?

  17. Bercow has been re-elected unopposed as Speaker.

    He had said that he wanted to go next year – after 9 years – but now wants to serve a full 5 year Parliament.

  18. In the Commons, May said (in reference to Bercow); ‘at least someone got a landslide’.

  19. Shameless reneging from Bercow, no doubt because the Tories unexpectedly lack the numbers to force him to keep his word.

    When was the last speaker to cling on beyond 9 years?

  20. Perhaps your rats analogy could be extended to Bercow too HH?

  21. Apologies, as I can’t remember on which thread the person asked the Q a fortnight or so ago, so posting it on the Speaker’s seat.

    No, the MP who is currently ill is not one of the oldest.

    However, the oldest dozen are:

    Dennis Skinner, 85
    Paul Flynn, 82
    Ann Clwyd, 79
    Geoffrey Robinson, 79
    Ken Clarke, 77
    Barry Sheerman, 77
    Bill Cash, 77
    Jim Cunningham, 76
    Kelvin Hopkins, 76
    Ronnie Campbell, 74
    Margaret Hodge, 73
    Louise Ellman, 72

    So 10 are Labour (would have been more had Winnick & Meale not lost)

  22. Notably, few of them would make good Speakers, though Dennis Skinner and Ken Clarke are good speakers.

  23. Putting it here as neither MP is named in the Sunday papers:

    A male Labour MP claims a male Tory MP sexually assaulted him after a drink he suspects was spiked with a date rape drug.

  24. Bercow will face a no-confidence motion tomorrow:

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/mar/11/tories-say-they-are-ready-to-take-action-to-oust-john-bercow

    Seems a bit premature to call a motion now. MPs are effectively voting blind, they don’t know the full details of how Bercow did or didn’t treat his staff any better than the rest of us do.

  25. In the usual way I am posting it here as it isn’t public yet: an MP and Peer are in hospital (and again it isn’t one of the oldest dozen above).

    In fact of recent hospitalisations, the youngest ones have been in far more:

    James Frith (Bury N) collapsed in December but recovered and was only kept in overnight.

    Andrew Stephenson (Pendle) has been in on at least four occasions, including a perforated gangrenous appendix and then a burst gall bladder removal.

  26. Somewhat under the radar, the Cox report into Parliamentary bullying was released yesterday, and it’s not looking good.

    Multiple MPs have submitted an Urgent Question about this, and Bercow has turned them down. I generally like Bercow but this is shameful from him, he’s abusing his office to protect himself.

  27. I think Bercow is lucky that Brexit is dominating the headlines and therefore the focus is not on the report.

  28. As well as Brexit being the reason why many Mp’s are defending him – because of what happens after if the Commons rejects any deal put forward by the government.

  29. I do see where those MPs are coming from, in fairness. I’m sure they aren’t speaking lightly in protecting him for the next couple of months, they ultimately realise that the Westminster scandal has destroyed hundreds of lives, while Brexit could destroy millions. It’s ruthless, but correct, utilitarianism.

  30. John Bercow intending to resign as speaker next Summer the BBC is reporting.

  31. Just a reminder that he originally promised to stay for nine years, and that deadline expired several months ago.

  32. Is there anyone who is particularly favoured or predicted to be his replacement?

  33. Lyndsey Hoyle, Elanor Laing and Charles Walker seem to be the frontrunners.

  34. Hoyle seems best shout

  35. Thanks.

  36. This will mean a by-election next summer, just after Brexit, in a safe though Remainy Tory seat which HS2 is just about to ram itself through. Very interesting.

  37. Buckingham is about as safe as you can get though. Has had a Tory since 1970

  38. Oh, the Tories wouldn’t lose but the majority might be pretty underwhelming for them.

  39. Oh, the Tories wouldn’t lose but the majority might be pretty underwhelming for them.’

    Whilst there is little doubt that on paper this is one of the safest Tory seats in the country (the old Buckingham seat that had a Labour MP between 1966-70 had very different boundaries) these sorts of factors seldom come to play at by-elections – see Christchurch 1993, Glasgow East 2008 – and with Brexit being well underway by then I don’t think this is the dead cert for the Tories that the figures might suggest

    And despite his troubles with former Tory colleagues, Bercow has actually always been held in fairly high regard in these parts, and I doubt he’ll be shy in letting voters know who he would like his successor to be

    All in all a very interesting by-election

  40. On paper a very similar seat to Witney and other things being equal we should expect a similar by-election result.

    This being a Remain seat and in the midst of HS2 bulldozers and rampant housebuilding, I wouldn’t discount the Lib Dems, who might also get tacit support from Bercow.

  41. It would be extremely depressing if this contest came down to who could out-NIMBY their opponent.

  42. I doubt that will be the case. Much will depend on the immediate post Brexit political environment. In a seat like this a chaotic no deal Brexit would kill the Tories, which Bercow has no doubt incorporated into the timing of his resignation.

  43. Could Dan Hannan be a candidate here next year as he did consider trying to stand in Winchester last year but was left of the shortlist.

  44. Doubt he’d be a very appropriate candidate here or in Winchester. It was Aldershot he was trying to be selected in I think, which is a much more Leave friendly seat.

  45. ‘he did consider trying to stand in Winchester last year but was left of the shortlist.’

    I wasn’t aware the sitting MP was resigning. He only won his seat in 2010

    Not surprised Hannan didn’t get a look in though – he’d go down like a led balloon in seat like Winchester, where I dare say the electorate is considerably more intelligent than the national average – and moire importantly, considerably more intelligent than him

  46. I don’t think it’s fair to call Daniel Hannan stupid, his arguments tend to be coherent even if they are wrong. He’s no Nadine Dorries, certainly.

    What is fair is to observe that he has often said that if Britain left the EU, he’d consider his work done and retire from politics. Instead he sets up a think-tank and starts shopping around for Westminster seats. Doubtless he, like so many others, thought that what happened after Brexit was a promise he would never have to fulfil.

  47. Sorry I was thinking about Chichester nor Winchester but it was actually Aldershot as H.Hemmelig said.

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