Buckingham

2015 Result:
Conservative: 0 (0%)
Labour: 0 (0%)
Lib Dem: 0 (0%)
Green: 7400 (13.8%)
UKIP: 11675 (21.7%)
Speaker: 34617 (64.5%)
MAJORITY: 22942 (42.7%)

Category: Safe Speaker seat

Geography: South East, Buckinghamshire. Part of Aylesbury Vale council area and two wards from the Wycombe council area.

Main population centres: Buckingham, Winslow, Princes Risborough.

Profile: The constituency is made up of the patchwork of affluent villages in the Buckinghamshire countryside, covering most of the Vale of Aylesbury besides Aylesbury itself. Buckingham itself is a small market town, home to the first private university in the UK. Other population centres include the town of Winslow, Princes Risborough and villages such as Cuddington, Haddenham, Ludgershall, Stewkley and Steeple Claydon..

Politics: Rural Buckinghamshire is a rock solid Tory bulwark, the Conservative equivalent of Bootle or the Welsh Valleys for Labour. In the 1960s a seat of the same name was held by Labour (represented by newspaper publisher Robert Maxwell) but that was a very different seat which included Milton Keynes within its boundaries, the current seat could never be expected to vote Labour. The current MP John Bercow was elected Speaker in 2009 and Labour and the Liberal Democrats observed the rather intermittent convention of not contesting the Speakers seat at the 2010 election. Instead John Bercow was opposed by a selection of minor parties and independents - most successful amongst them Nigel Farage, the leader of UKIP who was injured in a plane crash on the day of the election, and John Stevens, the former Conservative MEP whose campaign sent a man dressed as a dolphin to persue Bercow during the campaign to draw attention to him allegedly "flipping" his home to claim expenses.


Current MP
JOHN BERCOW (-) Born 1963, Edgware. Educated at Finchley Manorhill School and Essex University. Former merchant banker and special advisor. Lambeth councillor 1986-1990. Contested Motherwell 1987, Bristol South 1992. First elected as MP for Buckingham in 1997. Shadow Chief Secretary 2001-2002, Shadow Secretary of state for Work and Pensions 2002. Shadow secretary of state for international development 2003-2005. Speaker of the House of Commons since 2009. Bercow has undergone a remarkable transition across the political spectrum - as a student he was a member of the right-wing Monday club, and secretary of their immigration and repatriation section, when first elected he was a combatative right-winger, however in later years he mellowed, expressing more liberal and left wing views and resigning from the frontbench under Iain Duncan Smith over the issue of gay rights. He was elected Speaker in 2009, supposedly largely on the back of support from Labour MPs.
Past Results
2010
Con: (0%)
Lab: (0%)
LDem: (0%)
UKIP: 8401 (17%)
Oth: 39934 (83%)
MAJ: 12529 (26%)
2005*
Con: 27748 (57%)
Lab: 9619 (20%)
LDem: 9508 (20%)
UKIP: 1432 (3%)
MAJ: 18129 (38%)
2001
Con: 24296 (54%)
Lab: 10971 (24%)
LDem: 9037 (20%)
UKIP: 968 (2%)
MAJ: 13325 (29%)
1997
Con: 24594 (50%)
Lab: 12208 (25%)
LDem: 12175 (25%)
Oth: 421 (1%)
MAJ: 12386 (25%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
DAVE FOWLER (UKIP) Plumber.
ALAN FRANCIS (Green) Contested Milton Keynes North 2010.
JOHN BERCOW (Speaker Seeking Re-election) See above.
Links
Comments - 407 Responses on “Buckingham”
  1. PT – even a small majority (of say 21 as happened in 1992) would actually be a far larger gain in reality in the Leave v Remain axis, because it would be a Parliament rid of the Antoinettes & Bercows of this world.

    Even on the Left, 3 retiring (Remain) Lab MPs are being replaced by Leavers.

    I haven’t gone through all of the seats but something like 90% of retirees/defectors set to lose are Remainers.

    So eg the Oct Deal majority of a dozen would rise to near 50 without a seat changing hands. On current polling it’d rise to near 85.

  2. “BT – Prof Curtice was just on BBC saying that UKIP took 2 Tory votes for every 1 Labour vote in 2015.”

    Overall perhaps this was true, though I’d be interested to see the data.

    But I’m sure that it won’t have been true in the seats held by Labour in the North and perhaps West Midlands – i.e. the ones TBP are still standing in now.

  3. Incidentally, the first Ashcroft UK-wide polls are out on ConHome.

    He asked a series of Qs and the graphs are all on together with figures.

  4. The latest Savanta ComRes poll of 2,022 adults taken on Nov 11th & 12th shows:

    Cons support up 8% to 43% amongst DE voters

    Cons support down 6% to 40% amongst ABs

    Leavers are voting 62% Cons, 12% Brexit
    Remainers: Lab 45%, LD 26%, Green 8%, SNP 5%

    69% say Ind MPs/defectors should have resigned and fought by-elections and that’s why most won’t vote for any standing.

  5. I make the number of candidates to be:

    Cons & Unionist: 635
    Labour: 631
    LibDem: 609
    Green: 473
    Brexit: 267
    SNP: 59
    UKIP: 43
    PC: 35
    Yorkshire: 28
    Christian People: 26
    OMRLP: 24
    Scottish Green: 21
    Liberal: 20
    Alliance: 18
    DUP: 17
    SDP: 17
    UUP: 16
    SF: 15
    SDLP: 15
    Aontu: 7
    Animal Welfare: 6
    Libertarian: 6
    Advance: 5
    Renew: 4
    English Democrat: 4
    Workers Revolutionary: 4
    Green NI: 3
    Women’s Equality: 3
    Ind Group: 3
    Gwlad Gwlad: 3
    Justice & Anti-Corruption: 3
    Young People 3
    Green Socialism 3
    BNP 2
    Scottish Family Party 2
    North East Party 2
    Christian 2
    Socialist (GB) 2
    PBP 2
    Veterans & People’s 2
    Yeshua 2
    Peace 2
    NF 1
    Ashfield Inds 1
    Birkenhead SJP 1
    Speaker 1

    Plus around 200 Inds, 20 fielding just 1 and 25 with no description.

  6. What some people have the time to do never fails to astonish me – presume this is useful for your day job?

  7. Ha – sent to me. I just corrected two errors.

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