Buckingham

2015 Result:
Conservative: 0 (0%)
Labour: 0 (0%)
Lib Dem: 0 (0%)
Green: 7400 (13.8%)
UKIP: 11675 (21.7%)
Speaker: 34617 (64.5%)
MAJORITY: 22942 (42.7%)

Category: Safe Speaker seat

Geography: South East, Buckinghamshire. Part of Aylesbury Vale council area and two wards from the Wycombe council area.

Main population centres: Buckingham, Winslow, Princes Risborough.

Profile: The constituency is made up of the patchwork of affluent villages in the Buckinghamshire countryside, covering most of the Vale of Aylesbury besides Aylesbury itself. Buckingham itself is a small market town, home to the first private university in the UK. Other population centres include the town of Winslow, Princes Risborough and villages such as Cuddington, Haddenham, Ludgershall, Stewkley and Steeple Claydon..

Politics: Rural Buckinghamshire is a rock solid Tory bulwark, the Conservative equivalent of Bootle or the Welsh Valleys for Labour. In the 1960s a seat of the same name was held by Labour (represented by newspaper publisher Robert Maxwell) but that was a very different seat which included Milton Keynes within its boundaries, the current seat could never be expected to vote Labour. The current MP John Bercow was elected Speaker in 2009 and Labour and the Liberal Democrats observed the rather intermittent convention of not contesting the Speakers seat at the 2010 election. Instead John Bercow was opposed by a selection of minor parties and independents - most successful amongst them Nigel Farage, the leader of UKIP who was injured in a plane crash on the day of the election, and John Stevens, the former Conservative MEP whose campaign sent a man dressed as a dolphin to persue Bercow during the campaign to draw attention to him allegedly "flipping" his home to claim expenses.


Current MP
JOHN BERCOW (-) Born 1963, Edgware. Educated at Finchley Manorhill School and Essex University. Former merchant banker and special advisor. Lambeth councillor 1986-1990. Contested Motherwell 1987, Bristol South 1992. First elected as MP for Buckingham in 1997. Shadow Chief Secretary 2001-2002, Shadow Secretary of state for Work and Pensions 2002. Shadow secretary of state for international development 2003-2005. Speaker of the House of Commons since 2009. Bercow has undergone a remarkable transition across the political spectrum - as a student he was a member of the right-wing Monday club, and secretary of their immigration and repatriation section, when first elected he was a combatative right-winger, however in later years he mellowed, expressing more liberal and left wing views and resigning from the frontbench under Iain Duncan Smith over the issue of gay rights. He was elected Speaker in 2009, supposedly largely on the back of support from Labour MPs.
Past Results
2010
Con: (0%)
Lab: (0%)
LDem: (0%)
UKIP: 8401 (17%)
Oth: 39934 (83%)
MAJ: 12529 (26%)
2005*
Con: 27748 (57%)
Lab: 9619 (20%)
LDem: 9508 (20%)
UKIP: 1432 (3%)
MAJ: 18129 (38%)
2001
Con: 24296 (54%)
Lab: 10971 (24%)
LDem: 9037 (20%)
UKIP: 968 (2%)
MAJ: 13325 (29%)
1997
Con: 24594 (50%)
Lab: 12208 (25%)
LDem: 12175 (25%)
Oth: 421 (1%)
MAJ: 12386 (25%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
DAVE FOWLER (UKIP) Plumber.
ALAN FRANCIS (Green) Contested Milton Keynes North 2010.
JOHN BERCOW (Speaker Seeking Re-election) See above.
Links
Comments - 350 Responses on “Buckingham”
  1. “I don’t think it’s fair to call Daniel Hannan stupid…”

    Perhaps not, but he’s been proved spectacularly wrong about what would follow a vote to Leave.

    https://reaction.life/britain-looks-like-brexit/

  2. The Conservative association in Buckingham is looking for a candidate to stand in the next election no matter if Bercow is standing again or not.

  3. They are also trying to block his knighthood/seat in the Lords. Spiteful people.

  4. It’s also completely daft, and highlights how appallingly bad the Tory party now is at strategy. You are not going to encourage a Speaker you despise to stand down by withholding his traditional peerage. He will carry on until the Tories lose office and retire with all his baubles under a grateful Labour government. Meantime his bias against the government and the Brexiters will get worse.

    Buckingham is a Remain constituency and I could easily see Bercow holding on if the Tories stand against him, presuming Labour and the Lib Dems continue to give him a free run, and UKIP stand and sap some of the Brexiter vote. Why on earth would the Tories waste time and resources on risking such an embarrassment?

  5. Actually if you read the article in The Sun, the chairman of Buckingham Conservatives appears to be saying that a newly selected candidate will probably only stand if Bercow steps down. Seems to be a misleading clickbait headline.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/8223552/john-bercow-out-of-parliament-tories-replace-him/

  6. An MP is seriously ill in hospital.

    As is usual I’ll leave it here and not on their seat’s page, as I don’t think it’s in the public domain yet.

    So Swansea, Peterborough, N Antrim may not be the next by-elections after all.

    The Sunday Times also had a piece re an MP who lost a long legal battle which could bankrupt them. But surely the Whips would simply lend them the funds to prevent a by-election? Although I suppose maybe not if the Leadership despises them.

  7. Surely you mean Newport not Swansea?

  8. Must be, Paul Flynn is close to the end. Both Swansea Mp’s are active on twitter and at presumably at the commons today.
    Haven’t the rules on bankruptcy changed recently meaning it’s much harder for an mp to be excluded due to bankruptcy.

  9. There is an Mp, well known and long serving – who had not voted for months except for the key Brexit votes last month, Could be them seriously ill as it is known they had surgery the other month.

  10. HH – Yes, sorry I did mean Newport not Swansea.

    But neither is the MP I meant.

    BM11 – I’m not aware they had surgery prior to this, but I don’t want to start ruling in and out ‘suspects.’

    There are currently 8 MPs away on leave ie Whips know they are ill or on maternity etc.

  11. The ones on Maternity leave now have proxy votes I believe.

  12. The Mp I suspected it was, Geoffrey Robinson, voted in the Commons today it seems. With so few not voting on the Corbyn amendment the list is short.

  13. I thought it might be. Today was his first vote in Feb

  14. It was publicly announced that he had surgery when he missed the votes on the organ donor bill which he had championed. He only votes on key Brexit stuff and misses everything else.
    I think the ill Mp is not currently a member of any party – nobody else fits.

  15. BM11 – I think a dozen failed to vote on even the Labour amendment (but presumably they’re mainly the 8 on leave). The BBC has a graph of how MPs voted on the Brexit votes.

  16. On the Labour Amendment three Tories (One who later voted on other amendments) and one Labour did not vote excluding deputy speakers and Paul Flynn.

  17. This shows only 628 voted:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-47243407

    So SF, Speakers and 8 on leave and 1 in prison almost give you the full House.

  18. The BBC’s This Week is to end in July.

    The BBC are also cutting 10 minutes from the 10pm News from March 4th.

  19. Good. There is far too much news on the telly.

    And on the radio. Why is it thought that people need or want to know what the news is every 30 minutes? Esp on a music radio station.

  20. I’m surprised that it’s as low as 10% (of adults who have never worked).

    Not that it’s a bad thing: many are happy being full-time housewives etc.

    A friend who is standing for the local council tells me that 1 in 5 who answer the door during a weekday are of working age. But I suppose some could be self employed or students or off ill or on holiday.

  21. Working from home half the week is the norm now in many workplaces

  22. Most housewives will have worked even younger ones unless they haven’t worked for cultural reasons.
    Only 1 in 5 at home being working age feels low to me but I live in Inner London.
    Of course Working age can be a misnomer – I know someone still working in their mid 70’s part time in a quite a physical job.

  23. HH – true, although only largely for those in white collar jobs and even for those they’re generally in more senior roles.

    BM11 – most yes, but many housewives have never worked, from working class to middle class WI types. [But clearly 70% of women now work up from 40% in 1980]

    Really? Maybe a lot of your neighbours are self-employed? I can assure you that in some roads almost no-one is in at all during the day, except the odd OAP and I say that from years following local stories, as well as from politico friends hunting for voters.

  24. Haddenham & Stone ward by-election, 07.03.19:

    Green 1,210 51% (+ 35% )
    Cons 781 33% (- 8% )
    LibDem 333 14% (+ 2% )
    Labour 59

    No Ind (16%) or UKIP (16%) compared with 2015.

    Green Gain from Cons. 32% Turnout.

    An interesting result and seemingly an anti-housing development and anti-HS2 one.

    Even the Cons candidate was the Ind from last time in an attempt to see off the Green momentum here. The Green who won is said to be very well known locally and not just because he sports a green cravat, tweed waistcoat and hat when campaigning (and he’s only in his late 30s).

    He was the top Green here in 2015 by 500 votes so has a personal vote too.

  25. How depressing to see the Greens win on the one part of their manifesto where they are less progressive than the Conservative Party.

  26. Tbf I doubt even Conservatives would agree that building on the greenbelt is progress. Hence the result.

    Anti-HS2 certainly seems to have garnered the UKIP 16% to go Green here though last night. It was after all another George Osborne brainchild and so tends to be hated by both Left and Right.

  27. Well, a nationwide housing shortage leading to some of the highest homelessness rates in the developed world surely isn’t progress.

    Build more houses.

  28. Well it depends what you mean by nationwide. Most people tend to mean rough sleepers when they say homeless – but I realise families are homeless who are put up in B&Bs by local authorities.

    Amusingly, in the areas with the highest numbers of rough sleepers, you in fact have the highest % of vacant and void properties – which is why Ind and Green anti housing development protesters started winning in unexpected parts of Merseyside last year and I expect them to again in May.

    After all Liverpool’s population has almost halved over the past 50 years, so it’s nonsensical to propose building on parks (as the City Mayor tried).

    He just lost for the third time in the High Court, after local residents judicially reviewed the decision.

    I’m aware demographics (divorce, people marrying later, living longer and so on) means we need more 2 bed properties and accommodation for OAPs. We in fact have a surplus of 3 bed properties across the entire North West.

    Councils just want more 4 and 5 bed properties because they are in the higher Council Tax bands.

    I realise London is overcrowded however.

  29. You actually make some fair points there, Lancs.

  30. I too object to building on parks which I think is a consequence of the anti house building on the green belt feeling. I’ve seen it myself. Councillors who know building on fields behind existing developments is a vote loser so advocate building on parks instead. I want to preserve the green belt and in St Albans there are many empty properties that have been made habitable again and are occupied once again. However, given the number of houses the government want the council to build in the local plan I don’t see a way around it.

    I think Lancs is being unfair. Councils want 3 and 4 bed units because people on the housing list have family. I’ve started house hunting and saw some new builds yesterday. The only houses built available are 2 bed houses because all the 3 and four bed are gone. As it happens most the houses being built on the old Harperbury site in Radlett are 1-2 bed properties

  31. I can only speak of Councils in the North West. The City Mayor of Liverpool has specifically admitted that he wanted Redrow to build 4 and 5 bed houses so the Council Tax ‘take’ is higher. I agree: building on parks is wrong per se, but also stupid as those very same people who may be attracted to an area because of its green space no longer will be.

    As I said: demand is for 2 bed apartments and houses and sheltered accomodation.

    3 bed houses were overcrowded when we had large families in the 1920s-1960s. Now they are under occupied with just 2.1 people per household in Merseyside and Lancs (and that’s an average and is even true in some wards with 4 and 5 bed houses).

  32. I think people are getting confused between Green Belt and green-field. Most of the Green Belt is ordinary land in areas where residents have a vested interested in maintaining the price of their overvalued houses.

  33. Reports of an MP being taken very ill during Voting of the Benn amendment,

  34. Wow. We just had a tied vote in the House of Commons.

    It was on whether we should have another round of indicative votes. Bercow, in accordance with convention, cast his vote for the status quo, so we’re not having them.

  35. ~Unless the goverment arranges some form which May may end up doing.

    Could be a tie on the main motion voting now as well on those figures.

  36. The main motion however passes 312-311.

  37. No Deal now impossible (I think) after Yvette Cooper’s bill passes HoC by one vote.

  38. Has to recieve royal ascent and be agreed by the EU 27

  39. Having already been extremely unlikely for a few weeks now.

    People still prattling on about “no deal is the legal default” are just not smelling the coffee. It is a major fault of many people commenting on sites like this and politicalbetting that they focus too much on technicalities and not enough on assessing the mindset of the protagonists. The EU in particular is a master at can-kicking and rule-bending. If neither side wants no deal it just won’t happen.

  40. The only way no deal could happen now is if the EU rejects a request for extension. Considering the EU doesn’t want no deal either that seems unlikely, but it only takes one out 27 member states to veto us…

  41. They will posture but it won’t happen. Any nation vetoing the extension can expect to shoulder the biggest impact from the loss of our £39bn divorce settlement (should we be stupid enough to not pay, which is likely under PM Boris). Note discussions for the next 5-year EU budget will begin in the near future.

  42. “The only way no deal could happen now is if the EU rejects a request for extension.”

    In which case parliament could choose between No Deal and Revoke. Note that May has said she would accept whatever parliament decided. A tough call but at the 11th hour I’d expect parliament to prefer Revoke to No Deal (article 50 could perhaps be re-triggered in the future).

  43. John Bercow still expected to step down at the End of June.
    Candidates likely to run to replace him
    Deputy speakers – Lindsey Hoyle, Eleanor Laing, Rosie Winterton
    Others – Harriet Harman, Chris Bryant, Henry Bellingham, Meg Hillier, Pete Wishart.

  44. The Tories might get their own back by piling behind a Labour figure who most Labour MPs dislike – Frank Field perhaps.

    No chance Wishart gets it (SNP are hyper partisan and despised by all sides), also very unlikely a Tory gets it unless it’s one Labour like, can’t see one of those on your list.

  45. Who knows if Field is interested in speaker at 76. I suspect Labour would stand against him in Birkenhead as well – can’t see that CLP tolerating standing aside.
    I know one (First elected in 2017) Labour Mp very opposed to Laing getting it,

  46. I’d say Harriet Harman is the frontrunner, but I’m willing to concede that I may be mentally conflating who I think most deserves it with who is actually most likely to get it.

  47. Nah itll be Leslie Hoyle

  48. I just spotted that the electorate is down in every region on the 2014 Euros.

    eg North East 1.9m down 3.21%

    I think it’s largely down to Individual voter registration, as there are huge falls in all of the university cities (Manc & Lpool down over 10%, Newcastle down 13.43%, York down 6% etc).

    Although there have been rises in a few Leave areas (eg Hartlepool up 0.62%). So maybe a few who voted for the first time in the Ref are now registered.

    Perhaps also some EU nationals returning home.

  49. This could just be fewer people registered at multiple addresses, rather than people being disenfranchised.

  50. Yes, largely due to students, although the falls in the city centre wards in 2015 (a huge 40% fall in Central in Liverpool and the then City Centre ward in Manc) were city centre young professionals and EU Nationals, as well as UK students, ie the falls were in the most Remain ward of each.

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