Buckingham

2015 Result:
Conservative: 0 (0%)
Labour: 0 (0%)
Lib Dem: 0 (0%)
Green: 7400 (13.8%)
UKIP: 11675 (21.7%)
Speaker: 34617 (64.5%)
MAJORITY: 22942 (42.7%)

Category: Safe Speaker seat

Geography: South East, Buckinghamshire. Part of Aylesbury Vale council area and two wards from the Wycombe council area.

Main population centres: Buckingham, Winslow, Princes Risborough.

Profile: The constituency is made up of the patchwork of affluent villages in the Buckinghamshire countryside, covering most of the Vale of Aylesbury besides Aylesbury itself. Buckingham itself is a small market town, home to the first private university in the UK. Other population centres include the town of Winslow, Princes Risborough and villages such as Cuddington, Haddenham, Ludgershall, Stewkley and Steeple Claydon..

Politics: Rural Buckinghamshire is a rock solid Tory bulwark, the Conservative equivalent of Bootle or the Welsh Valleys for Labour. In the 1960s a seat of the same name was held by Labour (represented by newspaper publisher Robert Maxwell) but that was a very different seat which included Milton Keynes within its boundaries, the current seat could never be expected to vote Labour. The current MP John Bercow was elected Speaker in 2009 and Labour and the Liberal Democrats observed the rather intermittent convention of not contesting the Speakers seat at the 2010 election. Instead John Bercow was opposed by a selection of minor parties and independents - most successful amongst them Nigel Farage, the leader of UKIP who was injured in a plane crash on the day of the election, and John Stevens, the former Conservative MEP whose campaign sent a man dressed as a dolphin to persue Bercow during the campaign to draw attention to him allegedly "flipping" his home to claim expenses.


Current MP
JOHN BERCOW (-) Born 1963, Edgware. Educated at Finchley Manorhill School and Essex University. Former merchant banker and special advisor. Lambeth councillor 1986-1990. Contested Motherwell 1987, Bristol South 1992. First elected as MP for Buckingham in 1997. Shadow Chief Secretary 2001-2002, Shadow Secretary of state for Work and Pensions 2002. Shadow secretary of state for international development 2003-2005. Speaker of the House of Commons since 2009. Bercow has undergone a remarkable transition across the political spectrum - as a student he was a member of the right-wing Monday club, and secretary of their immigration and repatriation section, when first elected he was a combatative right-winger, however in later years he mellowed, expressing more liberal and left wing views and resigning from the frontbench under Iain Duncan Smith over the issue of gay rights. He was elected Speaker in 2009, supposedly largely on the back of support from Labour MPs.
Past Results
2010
Con: (0%)
Lab: (0%)
LDem: (0%)
UKIP: 8401 (17%)
Oth: 39934 (83%)
MAJ: 12529 (26%)
2005*
Con: 27748 (57%)
Lab: 9619 (20%)
LDem: 9508 (20%)
UKIP: 1432 (3%)
MAJ: 18129 (38%)
2001
Con: 24296 (54%)
Lab: 10971 (24%)
LDem: 9037 (20%)
UKIP: 968 (2%)
MAJ: 13325 (29%)
1997
Con: 24594 (50%)
Lab: 12208 (25%)
LDem: 12175 (25%)
Oth: 421 (1%)
MAJ: 12386 (25%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
DAVE FOWLER (UKIP) Plumber.
ALAN FRANCIS (Green) Contested Milton Keynes North 2010.
JOHN BERCOW (Speaker Seeking Re-election) See above.
Links
Comments - 449 Responses on “Buckingham”
  1. PT – even a small majority (of say 21 as happened in 1992) would actually be a far larger gain in reality in the Leave v Remain axis, because it would be a Parliament rid of the Antoinettes & Bercows of this world.

    Even on the Left, 3 retiring (Remain) Lab MPs are being replaced by Leavers.

    I haven’t gone through all of the seats but something like 90% of retirees/defectors set to lose are Remainers.

    So eg the Oct Deal majority of a dozen would rise to near 50 without a seat changing hands. On current polling it’d rise to near 85.

  2. “BT – Prof Curtice was just on BBC saying that UKIP took 2 Tory votes for every 1 Labour vote in 2015.”

    Overall perhaps this was true, though I’d be interested to see the data.

    But I’m sure that it won’t have been true in the seats held by Labour in the North and perhaps West Midlands – i.e. the ones TBP are still standing in now.

  3. Incidentally, the first Ashcroft UK-wide polls are out on ConHome.

    He asked a series of Qs and the graphs are all on together with figures.

  4. The latest Savanta ComRes poll of 2,022 adults taken on Nov 11th & 12th shows:

    Cons support up 8% to 43% amongst DE voters

    Cons support down 6% to 40% amongst ABs

    Leavers are voting 62% Cons, 12% Brexit
    Remainers: Lab 45%, LD 26%, Green 8%, SNP 5%

    69% say Ind MPs/defectors should have resigned and fought by-elections and that’s why most won’t vote for any standing.

  5. I make the number of candidates to be:

    Cons & Unionist: 635
    Labour: 631
    LibDem: 609
    Green: 473
    Brexit: 267
    SNP: 59
    UKIP: 43
    PC: 35
    Yorkshire: 28
    Christian People: 26
    OMRLP: 24
    Scottish Green: 21
    Liberal: 20
    Alliance: 18
    DUP: 17
    SDP: 17
    UUP: 16
    SF: 15
    SDLP: 15
    Aontu: 7
    Animal Welfare: 6
    Libertarian: 6
    Advance: 5
    Renew: 4
    English Democrat: 4
    Workers Revolutionary: 4
    Green NI: 3
    Women’s Equality: 3
    Ind Group: 3
    Gwlad Gwlad: 3
    Justice & Anti-Corruption: 3
    Young People 3
    Green Socialism 3
    BNP 2
    Scottish Family Party 2
    North East Party 2
    Christian 2
    Socialist (GB) 2
    PBP 2
    Veterans & People’s 2
    Yeshua 2
    Peace 2
    NF 1
    Ashfield Inds 1
    Birkenhead SJP 1
    Speaker 1

    Plus around 200 Inds, 20 fielding just 1 and 25 with no description.

  6. What some people have the time to do never fails to astonish me – presume this is useful for your day job?

  7. Ha – sent to me. I just corrected two errors.

  8. It seems odd that there isn’t a set date for postal votes to be sent out.

    Some Councils up here are doing so on 25th Nov. Others aren’t until 3rd Dec.

  9. The Labour manifesto pledges to extend the franchise to, “all UK residents over 16 by a system of automatic voter registration” [as used to happen with Uni Halls]

    Surely even McDonnell doesn’t mean (90,000) prisoners, those (300,000) sectioned or without mental capacity or asylum seekers?

    But they want to abolish UK Nationals with Overseas’ votes (which incl the military!)

    I doubt Tony Benn would have been that blatantly partial.

  10. Absolutely mental. We will have “community leaders” shipping in “residents” all over the place just for enough days to vote the right way. Makes sense as this is probably the only way Corbynism could democratically hold onto power.

  11. I think it goes further than that and won’t be popular.

    It effectively says Labour values a 16-year-old more than a 76-year-old.

    A foreign National over a UK National.

    An asylum seeker over an ex-Pat.

    (I realise some of the new £3 Labour members think that way, but it’s the first time a manifesto has spelt it out in such stark terms)

    They’ll also be disappointed to learn that they groups they despise are actually having the most children. wwc 3.5 kids, Orthodox Jews 8 on average, whereas eg Bengalis who had 7.8 per household in the 1990s has more than halved to just over 3 today.

    The woke middle class are having fewer and later.

  12. The tv scheduling really has been poor this year.

    The BBC QT Leaders’ debate is on tonight (with 4 of them) and next Friday (with 7).

    7-9pm going head-to-head with 2 eps of Corrie.

  13. ‘Orthodox Jews 8 on average’.

    Yikes! That’s bonkers. Is this a Lancs Observer embellishment or actually true?

  14. It’s true of the Orthodox in Salford – that figure was quoted in the docu that featured them – but I imagine Barnaby would know best re rates for Liberal, Reform etc.

    The wwc areas with the highest birth rates were: Barking & D, Sandwell, Luton, Thurrock, Harlow, Knowsley (all over 2.5 borough-wide and 3.5 in the wwc wards).

    Lowest fertility rates were in: Cities of L & W (0.7), Camden (1.2), Hackney, Bristol. [NB These aren’t just the raw number of births incidentally as you’d expect these to be low here, it’s the fertility rate, showing that middle class are having fewer children and later]

    You may recall that Helen Goodman MP complained that the 2 child cap on Child Benefit claims unfairly hit Catholics and the DWP select committee report said it discriminated against Travellers etc. Although at 83% it is a popular policy.

  15. “The two-child cap discriminates against Catholics”.

    Well, the main point is surely that it discriminates against poor people. I doubt Jacob Rees-Mogg is losing much sleep over it.

  16. Yes & no.

    RCs are largely found in the poorest seats (Manc, Bootle, W Belfast plus 25). Whilst they no longer have the 6 or 8 kids they did in the 1960s, they do still have more than the average.

    It doesn’t discriminate against poor people with 2 kids or less.

    I assume Mogg already lost Child Benefit due to his income (higher rate lost it before this change).

  17. The first postal votes have gone out.

    None that I’m aware in the NW (they start on Monday), but colleagues tell me they have in Stoke, the South West and Belfast.

  18. Only 4.2m watched the Leaders’ debate on BBC1 last night.

    As expected, that’s woeful for such a primetime slot, but is double what QT is now down to on 11pm on a Thursday.

  19. 4.2m is not woeful for current ratings.

  20. 4.2 million is fine. The big soaps (Corrie, EastEnders, Emmerdale) seem to bounce around the 5-7 million mark, and those are some of the biggest shows in the country.

    Btw I find Question Time unwatchable these days.

  21. It is woeful for that primetime slot, not even making the Top 10 for the week.

    It was given the Eastenders’ slot and 2m fewer viewed than the previous Friday.

    Slightly more actually viewed the Green PPB.

    Nick Robinson has the same slot this Friday, so we’ll see if he can draw in more viewers as it’ll only be 12 days left of campaigning by then.

  22. Eastenders certainly did not get 6 million friday week,

  23. The unknowable question is how many of those 4.2m watching were still undecided and how many were partisans cheering on “their” team.

  24. ‘Btw I find Question Time unwatchable these days.’

    Ditto – it used to be one of my favourite programs but lately and particularly since Brexit, it’s just the same arguments week in, week out, with the audience split right down the middle, and becoming ever more entrenched in their Remain/Leave position.

    It’s unbelievably tedious and even moments like when a Brexiter used the c word a couple of years back, it fails to rekindle my interest

    In many ways it perfectly showcases how divided we are as a country, but with that has gone the ability for politicians to win people over with good old-fashioned arguments, which is what general elections and debates are meant to be about, and used to be.

  25. An adjunct to this: electoral politics these days is largely an exercise in data science. It’s about deciding messaging by focus group, and targeting those messages to specific audiences, rather than building a coherent plan based on a set of moral values and persuading people of its merit. In spite of the supposed radicalism of our two main parties, British politics in 2019 is thoroughly transactional in a way even Tony Blair might have baulked at.

  26. BM11 – Of course it didn’t (that night).

    Children In Need was on BBC1 all night instead.

  27. For the usual reasons (so as not to identify the individual) I’ll post this on this seat:

    A Labour candidate in a seat the Party won at the last election is being investigated for serious crimes. I won’t speculate other than to say they were not an MP at dissolution.

  28. i.e. it’s a seat where the Lab MP defected to Ind or Change UK (and possibly since to LD).

    Which region…?

  29. No, they were not an MP at dissolution. But they could be next month.

    West Mids but that’s the closest I can say, as the NCA are investigating.

  30. Now the speaker is from Chorley Lancs should move these updates there.

    Or the many other lab candidates replacing retiring labour mp’s. There is one who has had some scandal (rather than possibly offensive comments) publicly reported before

  31. West Midlands in a LAB GE2017 and a candidate not an MP at dissolution means it can only be one of 5 people:
    Tahir Ali
    Carl Greatbatch
    Melanie Dudley
    Taiwo Owatemi
    Zarah Sultana

  32. Plus James Cunningham and Ibrahim Dogus.

  33. Lancs

    I know, I got that the suspect wasn’t an MP themselves at dissolution, I was referring to the applicable seats being ones where the Lab MP had switched allegiance this year.

    Though re-reading your original post again, I realise that the list could also include seats where the MP remained Lab till the end but retired e.g. West Brom East.

  34. Over 1 million of the 3m who registered to vote were already registered and some others were ineligible.

    I recall that happening in 2015 and at the EU Ref.

    Many went on not to vote.

  35. Quite a few sectoral polls are out. Of the dozen, all but one show Tory leads – although most will have been expected eg Moneywise had a poll of investors which showed 66% think the markets will improve if Cons win.

    Horse racing fans were equally strong for Cons – although that may be due to Labour seemingly taking the side of an animal rights’ extremist for that section of the manifesto.

    Midwives were equally split (42:40). I recall this surprised a few on here last time, although I also remember that nurses narrowly voted Leave according to a poll in 2016.

    The only lead Labour had was amongst railway workers.

  36. Louise Ellman has joined a dozen other ex-Labour MPs urging “decent Labour voters not to vote” for Corbyn’s Labour tomorrow.

    They have taken out full page ads in every regional and local paper in the North of England today.

  37. Labour insider has admitted to the BBC that they face a loss of seats tomorrow, but the extent isn’t clear.

  38. I bet Eliman herself is voting Lib Dem.

  39. No, she can’t stand them.

    In Lpool the Lab v LD hatred runs deep and is why many didn’t want Luciana in Wavertree.

  40. Apologies, I forget which page the predictions were on, but I’d expect 35 Tory gains (30 of them from Labour).

    Assume that’d mean something like 340 Cons, 235 Lab, 35 SNP, 15 LD, 10 DUP.

  41. You must be expecting the tories to make several gains from the snp while not losing any (many think stirling might go even if the tories gain in Ayrshire.

  42. The Times reports that Bercow is among the names proposed by Corbyn for peerage in the Dissolution Honours List.

  43. Had Boris taken Lindsay Hoyle’s advice and given Bercow the traditional peerage ex-speakers get, he could have avoided that damaging development. Though it makes Corbyn look unusually magnanimous, it is deeply deeply damaging to introduce yet more partisanship into the Speaker’s role. Surely this doesn’t mean that Bercow will become a Labour peer?

  44. Apparently Cummings has been telling people that Bercow will become a peer over his dead body and whilst that particular notion will sound an attractive proposition to many of us, the reality is that it probably means Bercow won’t end up in the House of Lords.

    Whilst there’s been plenty of weird-looking freaks advising in downing street before – who can forget the woeful Nick Timothy – none have had Cumming’s unbending nastiness or have been remotely as successful

    Cummings is exceedingly good at what he does – uniting people of various shades of nastiness around a single nasty cause – and his record proves it

  45. His decisions in the Commons could easily be seen as partisan but I think hard nosed Brexiteers must remember the closeness of the Brexit vote (it was only 3.8%). Even as a Leaver I say: he should not be denied elevation to the Lords.

  46. Bercow was undoubtedly a partisan speaker – and one that was biased against his own party, which to be fair he had been increasingly out of kilter with for some time before he became speaker – courtesy of Labour votes.

    Still it doesn’t seem a grave enough offence to be denied a peerage – which all former speakers get – and it makes Johnson and the government come across as bad winners as it were

    The days of the House of Lords are surely numbered any how and having another anti Brexiter amongst their ranks hardly alters its composition

  47. The controversy surely comes around the allegations of bullying that hang over him.

  48. “Bercow was undoubtedly a partisan speaker – and one that was biased against his own party”

    “it doesn’t seem a grave enough offence to be denied a peerage”

    Not doing his job properly seems a perfectly good reason not to give him a peerage.

  49. “None have had Cummings’ unbending nastiness”

    Plenty have been more abrupt from Bernard Ingham onwards.

    Ali C was proudly rude to many and has admitted so.

    Plenty of the New Labour SpAds were too from the, ‘good day to bury bad news’ woman to mass immigration being employed to, ‘rub their noses in diversity’ onwards.

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