Broxtowe

2015 Result:
Conservative: 24163 (45.2%)
Labour: 19876 (37.2%)
Lib Dem: 2120 (4%)
Green: 1544 (2.9%)
UKIP: 5674 (10.6%)
Others: 63 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 4287 (8%)

Category: Marginal Conservative seat

Geography: East Midlands, Nottinghamshire. Part of Broxtowe council area.

Main population centres: Beeston, Stapleford, Kimberley, Nuthall, Awsworth.

Profile: This seat is essentially the more affluent owner-occupied western suburbs of Nottingham that lie outside the city boundary. There is a high level of owner-occupation, very little social housing and a high proportion of residents commute into Nottingham for work.

Politics: A marginal between Labour and the Conservatives. The Conservatives won on a wafer thin majority in 2010 and the ousted Labour MP Nick Palmer attempted a return in 2015, only to see the Tory majority grow to eight percent..


Current MP
ANNA SOUBRY (Conservative) Born 1956, Worksop. Educated at Birmingham University. Former barrister and journalist. Contested Gelding 2005. First elected as MP for Broxtowe in 2010. PPS to Simon Burns 2010-2012, Under-secretary of State for Heath 2012-2013, Under-secretary of State for Defence 2013-2014, Minister of State for Defence 2014-2015. Minister of State for Small business since 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 20585 (39%)
Lab: 20196 (38%)
LDem: 8907 (17%)
BNP: 1422 (3%)
Oth: 1617 (3%)
MAJ: 389 (1%)
2005*
Con: 18161 (37%)
Lab: 20457 (42%)
LDem: 7837 (16%)
GRN: 896 (2%)
Oth: 1455 (3%)
MAJ: 2296 (5%)
2001
Con: 17963 (37%)
Lab: 23836 (49%)
LDem: 7205 (15%)
MAJ: 5873 (12%)
1997
Con: 21768 (37%)
Lab: 27343 (47%)
LDem: 6934 (12%)
MAJ: 5575 (10%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
ANNA SOUBRY (Conservative) See above.
NICK PALMER (Labour) Born 1950, London. Educated at MIT, Copenhagen. Director of BUAV, former computer manager and head of computer services at Novartis. Contested Chelsea 1983, MP for Broxtowe 1997-2010. PPS to Malcolm Wicks 2005-2008.
STAN HEPTINSTALL (Liberal Democrat) Born 1946, Bolton. Educated at King Edward VII School and Newcastle University. Emeritus Professor of thrombosis and haemostasis. Broxtowe councillor since 1991, Nottinghamshire councillor since 1997. Awarded the MBE for services to the community in 1997.
FRANK DUNNE (UKIP) Company director.
DAVID KIRWAN (Green) Trade union officer. Contested Newark by-election 2014.
RAY BARRY (Justice for Men and Boys)
Links
Comments - 594 Responses on “Broxtowe”
  1. Was the ex-UKIP now Ind NW MEP serious? That he intends to stand as a Conservative here against Anna?

  2. He seemingly but the Torries have told him he is not a member and his application was rejected last year. He was linked the other week to the New Brexit Party.
    Prehaps he could stand here for that party? Even through he is a northerner and this is the midlands.

  3. Both him and Soubry could well be without a Party at the next election.

  4. Pto
    “How is 52/48 – in line with the national result – a big margin?”

    I thought it was well over 60%. I have Leave vote in Broxtowe as 54.65% (Hanretty). But even that is not a “huge” margin so I withdraw.

    Hundreds of volunteers will be in this seat on Saturday and Corbyn is expected to attend

  5. I think they is some confusion as Broxtowe council is more leave than the seat because the areas of the council in others seats are very leave.

  6. Yes it’s often difficult and down to guesswork basically.

    I see Dr Hanretty has revised his estimates and Broxtowe has indeed been revised down to 52.5% Leave

    This is the latest and final estimages

    https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/final-estimates-of-the-leave-vote-or-areal-interpolation-and-the-uks-referendum-on-eu-membership-5490b6cab878

  7. On the News they described the town of Beeston and the seat of Broxtowe as an area where most people voted Brexit. To me Most is 70% and above not a 52-55/48-45 split. Looking at the demographics the town of Beeston might have been a remain part of the seat.

  8. In discussions of “the divide”, people forget that most in the vast majority of places the split was 60-40 or closer.

  9. I hadn’t realised Soubry lives over 20 miles away (address on Nom). Didn’t she live in her seat previously?

    Another ex-Tory PPC is standing here as an Ind. Keck was the first Chinese Tory PPC in 2005.

    Apparently 5 ex-MPs have nominated different Parties to the ones they sat for but not spotted any of them yet. In fact ex-Tory Elletson has nominated Lab in Blackpool N & Fleetwood. I thought he was a LD.

  10. BM11 – Most = 50.1% ie the civil liability to win in County Court or an Employment Tribunal.

    Your 70% is nearer the criminal burden.

  11. Ken Clarke has endorsed voting for Soubry. Might make a difference.

    Soubry has been local to Nottingham for more than 30 years as most of us who grew up in the area know, I don’t think her residence being a few miles over the Leicestershire border will be of much importance.

  12. I don’t agree with Soubry on everything but I’ll miss her presence in British public life if she does lose here. She’s been a brave politician over the last few years.

  13. Agreed. There have been a whole bunch of MPs over the past few years who have weighed up easy versus right and plumped for easy. Credit to those who have stuck up for their principles.

  14. It’s funny, I don’t think of Soubry as principled at all – but the consummate ‘politician’. I also think she was quite arrogant when a Health Minister, and generally is very patronising to people esp those whose views disagree with her own.

    She has often seemed quite incapable of understanding MPs’ views that differ from hers, whereas many more extreme viewpoints on both left and right are held by some who are able to speak to each other with more respect (as well as plenty who don’t).

    How well she does this election will presumably partly depend on whether there’s more people in Broxtowe who think like me, or who think like Tristan and Polltroll above.

    Though a bigger factor will presumably be national/Brexit issues which render the above a moot point.

  15. Tbh I respect people sticking up for their principles regardless of whether I agree with those principles.

    It’s amazing how many people call people “spineless” or “careerist” when what they mean is “I do not agree with this person”. It’s amazing how often you see lefties accusing Chuka Umunna of being a “career politician” when actually, the careerist thing to do would have been to pretend that he thought the sun shone out of Jeremy Corbyn’s backside.

  16. True. Not the best example though. Even Blairite Labour Cllrs say Chuka is a non-entity who just loves appearing on camera.

    Soubry did the SDP thing before so both is arguable (that she did so on principle or because they were leading in the polls).

    I admit I don’t like defectors but arguably being an Ind [effectively] is the most narcissistic move. I fully expect her to do a David Mellor rant when she loses.

  17. With my steel industry hat on, I can tell you that the steel industry rated Soubry as the minister who managed to get (albeit modest) tariffs on Chinese steel exports past David Cameron, and saved Tata from almost certainly closing down.

    On Brexit I admire her principles but don’t share her unwillingness to compromise with the voice of the electorate. Though even she has criticised the Lib Dem Revoke stance.

  18. Her unwillingness to compromise on Brexit aside, unlike many of her collegues who for careerist reasons have chose to keep their mouths shout, Soubry simply wasn’t willing to see the pragmatic detoxified centre right party she though she had joined transform into some intolerant, hard right Brexit-obsessed mob headed by an amoral liar.

    And she’s got nothing but nasty and personal abuse for it, as can be seen from the likes of Lancs and his like-minded mates

    MPs get permanently criticised for putting party interests before the country as soon as one of them doesn’t follow suit the uproar and spite unleashed is enough to ensure that few are likely to follow her lead

    I think Soubry has received more death threats than any other MP. I wonder if any of the hardline Brexiteer MPs have received any. I very much doubt it

  19. Tim J – you doubt it because you instinctively assume your opponents are nasty and your side is virtuous.

    As I’ve pointed out before, in fact more from the far Left have been convicted for public order offences etc than from the far Right.

    Which is remarkable given Lammy’s provocative tweets and posts at times. Of course his predecessor Bernie Grant and John McDonnell have sought attacks on police and Tory MPs however.

    On Soubry personally, you over rate her. Her age and drinking would suggest she was always bowing out this time. At least the £22k will help.

  20. TJ: I believe Diane Abbott has received the most death threats. Still, it’s not exactly a competition.

    The other depressing thing is that it’s almost always women. These people are being attacked for their identity as much as their ideas.

  21. I think the point about it being women who are primarily bullied is nonsense.
    They certainly make more of a public fuss about it. But Soubry is treated that way because of how SHE behaves, not because she is a woman. Same goes for Abbot.

    Personally, I have a number of words to describe Soubry but none of them able to be published on this site. By contrast I have no ill feeling at all towards-for example-Anne Milton.
    Both remoaners, both standing as independents in this election both women, but only one of them attracting strong feelings of disgust.

  22. Again it’s only fair to point out for accuracy that only 3 MPs’ assailants have been prosecuted for threats of violence.

    Luciana Berger, an SNP MP and a Tory.

    At the CBI today, Corbyn was asked what he thought of ant-Semitic threats from the Left.

    He replied by condemning fasci*ts. In his mind he simply can’t compute that a Leftwinger can be racist.

  23. ‘I think the point about it being women who are primarily bullied is nonsense.’

    You think all these threats of rape etc are directed at male MPs?

    The likes of Soubry are targeted by Brexit voters because she’s vocal in her opposition to a policy she believes will be a disaster for her constituents and fellow countrymen.

    Abbot, on the other hand, is targeted by Brexit voters because she’s black – end of.

    It’s not Remain supporters who are going around threatening MPs with things like rape, lynching, torturing etc it’s those from the extremes (both Left but mostly Right) because sadly that’s the mentality of many people who voted for Brexit

    As I’ve said before it would be ludicrous to describe everyone ho voted for Brexit as racist, bigoted, nasty simpletons, it would be even more ludicrous to deny that almost every single racist, bigoted, nasty simpleton would have supported Brexit – and that’s the point

  24. Actually Tim, it’s been well documented – ask the police forces – that abuse has been just as bad by ardent Remainers as by ardent Brexiters.

    Maybe it’s a surprise, but it’s also the truth, so your last paragraph is very wrong tbh.

  25. Tim: “It’s not Remain supporters who are going around threatening MPs with things like lynching”

    It is. Indeed 2 MPs have in the past.

    “but mostly Right”

    Wrong again.

  26. ‘Actually Tim, it’s been well documented – ask the police forces – that abuse has been just as bad by ardent Remainers as by ardent Brexiters.’

    That’s simply not true

    In the past few months alone vile Brexiteeers Alden Bryce Barlow, Robert Vidler, James Goddard, Ian Couch, Dave Stuart and Keith Willard have all been jailed for sending abusive and threatening communications to Remain supporting MPs

    I can’t think of one Remainer convicted of doing vice versa during that time period

  27. I’m sorry Tim, but I think you are willfully ignoring the evidence that would not assist your point. Of course male MPs have had every bit the abuse of the women.

    Abbot is NOT abused solely because she is black, she is abused because she is utterly incredible. Soubry is NOT abused because she is a woman, or even because she is a remoaner. It is because of the manner in which she goes about her business.

    As I said earlier, I feel no hostility towards Anne Milton for example. But Soubry is quite another matter. Whats the difference between them? They have so much in common, so why is Soubry so especially hated?

  28. P.s. I hope the BBC show us the Broxtowe result in full on the night and don’t just report that Soubry has lost. I think we deserve to savour every moment of the result.

    And when she does lose, can I appeal to any Broxtowe candidates who happen to be reading this to give her a good send off like Mellor got in 1997?
    With any luck, she will explode into a big rant about how she was right and the people were all wrong so we can have a really good laugh and get some great election night telly out of it to boot!!!

  29. So what do people think might happen in this seat? Is Soubry standing enough to swing it to Labour?

    I don’t think she has much chance of winning herself but she’ll easily do the best out of the 3 remaining Change UK candidates, though that wouldn’t be particularly difficult given the calibre of Leslie and Gapes. Does she take enough Tory votes to gift the seat to Labour?

  30. A certain poster on here relishing the thought of this MP losing desperately needs some psychiatric help. He sounds completely deranged.

    Lancs Observer is just a twat, obviously.

  31. TD: really tough to know. Obviously it’s a very different sort of seat, but Sam Gyimah’s candidacy in Kensington doesn’t appear to be hurting the Tories there (or if he is, that effect is being outweighed by a Lab to Con swing).

  32. “A certain poster on here relishing the thought of this MP losing desperately needs some psychiatric help. He sounds completely deranged.
    Lancs Observer is just a twat, obviously.”

    Lol. What superior political discussion.

    Sorry that my little aside hoping for a bit of fun on election night offended you so much.
    Perhaps it isn’t me you are really upset with but rather the majority if the electorate?

  33. Tristan – it should please you even more to know that Shaun B is a Stoke Conservative.

    You know those wwc seats you despise that there’s been swings from Lab>Cons to at the last 2 GEs and gains at the last one.

    Tim – in fact a Remainer murdered a Leave voter – after an argument about the Ref – in the NW, but you prove the point that I doubt that gained much coverage outside the local paper up here. There’ve been lots of reports of reports (mainly by Remainians moaning), but I’m talking of actual criminal convictions.

  34. Lancs – I named six brexiteers who had been convicted of making threats to remain supporting MPs in the last few months alone and you have yet to name one remainer convicted of doing the same for the simple reason they don’t exist , except in your head

  35. It isn’t my job to do research for you.

    You not liking a fact, however, does not stop it from existing thankfully.

    As Prof Goodwin pointed out – as he is one of the few to bother to research this area – the last tranche of convictions saw 89 from the far Left/Remain axis and just 32 from the far Right/Leave side.

    He also notes that the Left continue to deny the existence of any hate speech emanating from their side. As you yourself have twice today just on this page.

  36. Alt-Right academic Matthew Goodwin is hardly a voice of neutrality, and he could well end up eating his words again as he did after his woeful predictions of what would happen at the 2017 election. He knows so much about the hardline Eurosceptic Right because he’s one of them – and everything he writes needs to viewed at from that perspective

    The hard Left go around trolling people on a daily basis but I wasn’t talking about them, I was talking about remain voters who haven’t yet copied the tactics of their Leave-supporting counterparts with threats to kill and rape Brexit-supporting MPs etc and the reason you can’t provide any names is because there aren’t any – as I suspect you well know

  37. Here is the first Leaver to have been killed by a Remainer after a violent attack which lasted 15 minutes:

    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/brexit-supporter-attack-eu-referendum-european-union-remain-manchester-a7362956.html

    There have since been 2 others in the North West alone.

    But don’t worry, ‘cos Tim has found 6 Leavers guilty of making malicious communications on twitter!

  38. ere is the first Leaver to have been killed by a Remainer after a violent attack which lasted 15 minutes:

    Tim’s utter denial of reality reminded of the below – an example I provided on her to Rivers10, Merseymike & EcoWirral at the time when they denied that the far left had been violent –

    https://www.kentonline.co.uk/dover/news/union-employee-jailed-for-throwing-98919/

    Michelle Smith was jailed for 12 months for violent disorder, as were 18 others from the far Left including Richard Pursell of no fixed abode who was jailed for 3 months for a public order offence, Omar Amad, nfa jailed for 18 months for violent disorder and Shaun Gastell of Brighton jailed for 14 months also for violent disorder.

    Further in Liverpool, of those jailed after violence 2 years ago: 4 were from the far Right and 9 from the far Left.

    “mostly Right” is what Tim thinks – and to be fair a lot think – but is the opposite of reality. It’s almost as if their very being would combust if reality dawned on them. They simply think the Left/Remainers cannot be nasty or violent because they are full of virtue.

    Indeed the character witness statements – in support of the thug throwing rocks which hit police – says she’s lovely because she fights the fascis*s.

  39. I’m not denying the far Left have been involved in numerous cases of social disorder and convicted for it to – but I don;t see what that has to do with what I was referring to

    I was specifically talking about those who have been trolling MPs with threats of violence, rape, torture etc and the vast majority of those cases have involved Brexiteer’s sending malicious messages to Remain-supporting MPs

    You don’t need to convince me of the callousness and illegality of many on those on the Far Left – but they still lag behind their far right counterparts in terms of sheer nastiness and brute effectiveness

  40. Hesitant as I am to dip my toe into this on a point of pedantry, I’m pretty sure James Goddard was not jailed.

  41. That was almost an admission, Tim (that you’re only now claiming the Right is nasty and vicious online), presumably in the face of the evidence of the violence of the Left [which you claimed was less widespread]

    But no, you end again by denying the facts and asserting that the Right are more brutally effective.

    So what’s your explanation? The police or CPS are disproportionately arresting and prosecuting the Left over the Right?

    HH – true. In fact again the only arrests – and pending prosecutions when he was present in Bootle for the Tommy Robinson rally this Summer – were from the far Left not the far Right.

    I simply think the Right have realised that they can goad the far Left into rioting and/or fighting with police, not that black clad youths in Brighton seemed to need much goading.

    It’s a silly area for Tim to argue on, because I have to hand a huge resource of court reports listing all those convicted.

    Also, Prof Goodwin is in no way ‘Alt Right.’ He was actually a former Liberal student and it was only because he got the rise of UKIP wrong in the 2010-2015 that he began to research the area. Tbf to him, he’s one of the few political academics with an open mind, unlike the usual ones who appear on tv and always oppose the Govt or Britain and the USA and always happen to support Sinn Fein and any foreign foe.

  42. I’d say John Curtice has an open mind as well, personally I think he comes across on TV better than Goodwin.

  43. Yes, he’s the undoubted expert, sadly they always seem to put others on.

    With Dimbleby retired, with any luck Kellner won’t get asked back given that he’s called something like 8 elections wrong.

    Tonge of Liverpool Uni is dire too.

  44. Looks like Soubry is threatening to call police onto her opponents again. She must spend more time with the police than wiyh her own constituents (before she starts looking at whether she can prosecute me fir that comment, it was of course a joke).

    I wonder if we can bill her for using the police as her own private political stormtroopers over the last few years?

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