Broxtowe

2015 Result:
Conservative: 24163 (45.2%)
Labour: 19876 (37.2%)
Lib Dem: 2120 (4%)
Green: 1544 (2.9%)
UKIP: 5674 (10.6%)
Others: 63 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 4287 (8%)

Category: Marginal Conservative seat

Geography: East Midlands, Nottinghamshire. Part of Broxtowe council area.

Main population centres: Beeston, Stapleford, Kimberley, Nuthall, Awsworth.

Profile: This seat is essentially the more affluent owner-occupied western suburbs of Nottingham that lie outside the city boundary. There is a high level of owner-occupation, very little social housing and a high proportion of residents commute into Nottingham for work.

Politics: A marginal between Labour and the Conservatives. The Conservatives won on a wafer thin majority in 2010 and the ousted Labour MP Nick Palmer attempted a return in 2015, only to see the Tory majority grow to eight percent..


Current MP
ANNA SOUBRY (Conservative) Born 1956, Worksop. Educated at Birmingham University. Former barrister and journalist. Contested Gelding 2005. First elected as MP for Broxtowe in 2010. PPS to Simon Burns 2010-2012, Under-secretary of State for Heath 2012-2013, Under-secretary of State for Defence 2013-2014, Minister of State for Defence 2014-2015. Minister of State for Small business since 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 20585 (39%)
Lab: 20196 (38%)
LDem: 8907 (17%)
BNP: 1422 (3%)
Oth: 1617 (3%)
MAJ: 389 (1%)
2005*
Con: 18161 (37%)
Lab: 20457 (42%)
LDem: 7837 (16%)
GRN: 896 (2%)
Oth: 1455 (3%)
MAJ: 2296 (5%)
2001
Con: 17963 (37%)
Lab: 23836 (49%)
LDem: 7205 (15%)
MAJ: 5873 (12%)
1997
Con: 21768 (37%)
Lab: 27343 (47%)
LDem: 6934 (12%)
MAJ: 5575 (10%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
ANNA SOUBRY (Conservative) See above.
NICK PALMER (Labour) Born 1950, London. Educated at MIT, Copenhagen. Director of BUAV, former computer manager and head of computer services at Novartis. Contested Chelsea 1983, MP for Broxtowe 1997-2010. PPS to Malcolm Wicks 2005-2008.
STAN HEPTINSTALL (Liberal Democrat) Born 1946, Bolton. Educated at King Edward VII School and Newcastle University. Emeritus Professor of thrombosis and haemostasis. Broxtowe councillor since 1991, Nottinghamshire councillor since 1997. Awarded the MBE for services to the community in 1997.
FRANK DUNNE (UKIP) Company director.
DAVID KIRWAN (Green) Trade union officer. Contested Newark by-election 2014.
RAY BARRY (Justice for Men and Boys)
Links
Comments - 541 Responses on “Broxtowe”
1 9 10 11
  1. As a Labour supporter I have a lot of respect for Ms Soubry. If she was leader of the Conservative Party I might actually be okay with them in government (if not willing to vote for them).

  2. ”The Results- good work. It must have taken a lot of effort…well done.
    I’m inclined to agree with Polltroll re: Soubry. A ray of sunshine she is not, but she is pretty eloquent and is certainly a nice change from the bland platitudes often uttered by politicians. She is also pretty brave re: her stance on immigration (she is probably the most pro- immigration politician in the UK, publically at least).”

    @Tristan first of all may I say a very warm thank you to you for your good wishes for my efforts. I really do appreciate it I mean it 100%.

    Secondly, agreed about Soubry. She isn’t your typical soundbite politician who is identikit and reading from the cabinet papers like most do/have to because it’s their job as a minister. In that sense she certainly is somewhat unique, especially for someone not all that long ago a prominent minister herself. It takes guts to stand out in a good way as a Conservative these days, so fair play to her.

  3. “Unlike other posters, I don’t feel that she personally disliked May…in fact she admitted that May has many good qualities. The real venom was reserved for the flunkies I think.”

    Yes, I think this is probably correct.

    Worth remembering that May is not on the right of the party really, and was considered the most centrist candidate for the leadership in 2016. I would be surprised if Soubry didn’t vote for her then.

    Her analysis of May was accurate in the sense that she is very capable and gifted at her job, but has shown a terrible ineptitude to adapt to the different more open campaigning style needed of a Prime Minister (albeit she may be a good PM, let’s not debate that here). May might have got away with it against the likes of Corbyn (but definitely not against a Blair) if the communication / defence lines around the manifesto had been well-prepared (and briefed to the cabinet).

  4. I feel that in the fairly near future neighbouring Rushcliffe could resemble closely this seat in its voting patterns…

  5. ^With Labour really taking a hit in their traditional Notts heartlands, you think the battle could move to the Nottingham suburbs? They’ve been resilient as hell in Gedling and Broxtowe looks competitive.

    Can’t see Rushcliffe changing hands soon. It may be after Ken Clarke goes if Labour becomes more competitive. There was a good spike in their vote this time, their near 12% rise seemingly proportionate to the decline in UKIP and Green votes. Clarke’s majority is now around 8000.

    As for others Notts seats, they’ll struggle to retake Mansfield unless they’re on course for a majority, Ashfield is in big trouble (now a three figure trouble) and even Bassetlaw is moving away from Labour. Sherwood is as good as gone imo. It may be one of those seats they win for 1 or 2 terms before swinging back to the Tories.

  6. I wouldn’t be so pessimistic about Labour’s medium term prospects in Mansfield et al. They did very badly in those places this time, but I suspect the high level of Cons support with this demographic may be an unusual phenomenon associated with Brexit and (the pre-June 8 version of) Corbyn, and could fall away big time if the Tory govt continues to become increasingly unpopular over the coming years.

  7. Labour almost lost Mansfield in 1987 because of specific ramifications from the miners’ strike. When it became clear that Scargill had been right about pit closures, the seat swung very heavily back to Labour – in 1992 the swing to Labour was the highest in the whole of Britain, and as it happens my friend Gary Mond was the Tory candidate who was on the end of that swing – he insists it wasn’t his fault to this day! (and I believe him). By 1997 the Labour majority was back up to 20,000 there. It may be that class-based voting is weakening permanently, but with politics increasingly polarised between a more socialist Labour Party and a Tory Party whose economic policies are not Keynesian as they were under Heath and before, it would be unwise to assume that class-based voting is not about to make a significant comeback at some point.

  8. Sherwood and Mansfield both would fall to Labour if Labour won a majority.
    Rushcliffe now would have fell in 1997 with what seems to be demographic changes there.

  9. Sherwood looks to be getting worse for Labour. It’s a seat they last held seven years ago as well- something similar has happened in North Warwickshire, Tamworth, North West Leicestershire, South Derbyshire and Amber Valley in the Midlands for Labour…

  10. For some reason this hasn’t really been mentioned anywhere apart from Guido yet, but the Broxtowe Conservative Association is on serious manoeuvres against Anna Soubry. Full story can be seen here:

    https://order-order.com/people/anna-soubry/

    I know we’ve been here before, but it looks like deselection is genuinely on the cards.

  11. Soubry must surely have expected this? Let’s be honest…she’s painfully out of step with the views of most of the Tory grass roots. I wonder if Nicky Morgan is under threat too? Someone like Heidi Allan is in a stronger position simply by being a good ‘fit’ for her constituency.

  12. Notably, Allen was selected by her local association, whereas Soubry and Morgan were 2010-ers chosen from the A-list and forced on local constituencies by CCHQ.

  13. As a Remainer I’m bound to say this but I don’t think it does the Tories many favours to completely alienate the ever decreasing amount of moderate MPs still within the party

    Their poll numbers might look respectable at the moment and the UK is clearly considerably more conservative than liberals such as myself assume, I don’t think there’s too many votes in the Tories turning themselves into the Republican Party of the UK – not once labour elect a leader that can reach out to the centre ground – especially so with regards to business that at the moment regards them as the lesser of two evils (and only just)

  14. I’m not so sure, to be honest – she’s a principled individual for whom I have a great deal of admiration, but I honestly don’t think the Tory rebels present any electoral advantage to their party. They have managed to alienate both sides of the divide, by deploying fighting talk in the build-up to key votes, and then bottling it after a meaningless concession is offered.

    And I’m the sort of person who thinks they’re a pretty reasonable bunch.

  15. As for businesses, I bet they’re kicking themselves over how they treated Ed Miliband as a dangerous Marxist in 2015.

  16. It’s not apparent at the moment but think the Tories need the likes of Soubry, Grieve, Allen and Morgan and whatever else remains of the Tory Left, to maintain their firm grip on those affluent, middle class Tory seats that did vote Remain

    Many of them had already flirted with the Lib Dems and/or Blair in the latex 90s, early naughties and I think would at the very least consider doing so again were Labour to elect a more centrist leader

    Brexit could destroy the Tories reputation for being the party of business – a key reason they have been so successful since the war

  17. “It’s not apparent at the moment but think the Tories need the likes of Soubry, Grieve, Allen and Morgan and whatever else remains of the Tory Left, to maintain their firm grip on those affluent, middle class Tory seats that did vote Remain”

    I concur with your general point, but it doesn’t apply to Broxtowe, which voted quite clearly for Leave.

    It has its ultra Remainy bits close to the University, but by and large the wards where the Tory votes come from are lower middle class suburbs which aren’t that different from the nicer bits of Erewash and Amber Valley. It’s pretty likely IMO that a fair majority of those who voted for Soubry voted to Leave, and therefore much as I respect her, it’s hard not to agree she’s out of step with her voters on this particular issue and will probably find it quite hard to remain MP here.

  18. Ditto Nicky Morgan – I think Loughborough voted Leave as well

  19. Both Broxtowe and Loughborough – whilst not as pro Brexit as other seats in the ultra-nationalist East Midlands – were perhaps surprising victories for Leave, especially so considering the pro-EU sympathies of their 2 MPs, but with Brexit about to happen and all it entails ([prices doubling in the supermarkets, Dover coming yo a complete standstill etc etc) I don’t think it will be too long before Joe Public will be thinking they should have listened ti the likes of Soubry and Morgan all along –

  20. The country voted for a hard brexit Tim.

  21. That sounds like the fake Joe James B talking.

    A narrow 52/48 split is hardly a resounding endorsement of hard Brexit. Whether a soft Brexit is on offer is another question….unless May drops her red lines on freedom of movement I suspect it isn’t.

  22. ‘Whether a soft Brexit is on offer is another question’

    I think May has come to the conclusion that it’s the only viable Brexit option without destroying the economy

    Good luck to her is selling that to the Brexiteers

    I suspect the above post is by the fake Joe. I don’t think anyone who by his own admission narrowly voted for Brezit would make such a moronic comment, although today’s Tory members do seem to be severely lacking in intellect compared to their counterparts in past generations

  23. I’m utterly bored with posting on political sites about Brexit….nobody has changed their mind so little point in wasting the bandwidth.

    My own view is that the EU have consistently made plain that they will not compromise the four freedoms in any deal with Britain. Their line on this hasn’t wavered at all in 2 years and will not do so. There is no chance of a pick n mix bespoke deal. So it boils down to either “Norway plus” with full membership of single market, customs union, ECJ and free movement, or cliff edge hard Brexit. Or, most likely at the moment IMO, some kind of extension or delay.

  24. “I don’t think anyone who by his own admission narrowly voted for Brezit would make such a moronic comment”

    Have to say I do admire JJB’s selflessness on this.

    He must have known that Brexit would destroy the Tories in his own very genteel patch of SW London (Twickenham and Richmond), as indeed it has. The local election results were absolutely brutal. Even Mr Richmond himself Tony Arbour lost his seat, in Hampton Wick of all places. Yes Hampton Wick….that suburb which was so stereotypically Tory they made it the setting for George and Mildred. With no Brexit, Joe himself would have been a councillor today instead of going down to a stinging defeat. With Heathrow expansion added into the mix, the chances of Zac Goldsmith being on the dole in 2022 look quite high.

  25. ‘Have to say I do admire JJB’s selflessness on this.’

    Decent chap though he seems, he deserves nothing less, and the one and only thing I look forward to about Brexit is seeing all the Brexiters reap what they have sown – unemployment, fall in income etc

    It;’s just sad that people who haven’t contributed to this dramatic miscalculation will suffer that fate too

  26. HH – tbf even the fake JJB only said the Country voted…

    not that hey did so resoundingly.

    A majority of 1 would have been sufficient. In the event it was over 1 million.

    As for freedom of movement, it no longer exists in an unfettered way throughout and border checks even take place between Schengen signatories. But the EU always was something where they don’t even abide by their own pronouncements, but UK civil servants always seem to like to.

  27. “As for freedom of movement, it no longer exists in an unfettered way throughout and border checks even take place between Schengen signatories.”

    Freedom of Movement has nothing to do with border checks as you well know. It refers to the guaranteed right of EU citizens to live and work anywhere within the EU. Nothing to do with whether they get their passport checked or not in between. I agree as it happens that Schengen is going to be very challenging to maintain in its present form, but that is irrelevant to Brexit as we are not part of it.

    “tbf even the fake JJB only said the Country voted…

    not that hey did so resoundingly.”

    He said that the country voted for hard Brexit. There’s no evidence for that, and the narrowness of the result implies that it’s probably wrong. ie given the narrowness of the result I doubt that more than 50% of the country would be happy to leave the EU on WTO terms. Happily T May isn’t going to let that happen.

  28. Freedom of movement no longer exists in unfettered terms is what I said AND then the point re Schengen.

    Both are true and both in breach of EU rules and agreements. Although at 3 months [jobless new arrival time limit], we’re – as usual – more lax than the recent changes imposed in Hungary and Italy re benefits and immigrants.

    Well if by ‘hard Brexit’ you mean leaving the internal market then over 85% voted for that at the General.

    But yes, the margin was only 4% in the Referendum.

  29. Hungary and Italy show you don’t have to leave the EU to get tougher on immigration and exploitation of the benefits system.

    As I said in my post to Tim I’m tired of arguing Brexit with people who are no more likely to change their mind than I am so I’ll leave it there.

    What exactly constitutes hard Brexit is a good point. To my mind a deal where we left the internal market wouldn’t necessarily be hard Brexit depending on the agreements on other things. A moot point though as that doesn’t seem to be on offer.

    Incidentally I was part of that 85% myself as were a majority of remainers….to say that by voting for a party you are endorsing its whole manifesto is daft. As daft as saying that all Tory voters in 2010 and all Labour voters in 2015 were voting to stay in the EU by virtue of the party manifestos.

    As it happens I doubt many Leave voters care much about the internal market or customs union….immigration is going to be the major sticking point with whatever is agreed.

  30. I agree…except for the fact that the 2017 manifestos were the first GE post-Referendum and so the policy does matter. After all, the LibDems made it their differential.

    Plus the 2015 Tory manifesto didn’t say they’d stay in, so your point isn’t made. It did however pledge a Referendum, of course!

    I agree: most voters are bored of both.

  31. I agree with HH on immigration. Is it Article 12 that allows EU countries to implement their own migration limits on EU migration?

    On the manifesto thing. I would agree as I’ve vpted for a party despite disagreeing with parts of the manifesto. But I discovered Mike Smithson Polling Betting founder and Lib Dem activist voted Labour in 2017 but won’t do next because of Brexit policy. What bewilders me is Labour’s manifesto said ‘out of FoM and CU. So what’s changed for him to change his mind. I have my own views but I voted Labour aware of the position and I’m not suddenly vote for someone else because of their position when I voted for them knowing what it was. The policy didn’t change. Mike still doesn’t like the policy. So what’s changed

  32. I would be quite content with being outside the customs union but with the four freedoms remaining in place.

    As a compromise, or as a relatively straight forward solution.

    May’s failure to campaign and/or engage with the electorate means that she doesn’t know what the majority on both sides want. Firstly, it sorting ASAP, and secondly something that most can accept and move on from.

    The single issue head bangers who’ve probably never even met a migrant in their lives… to them enough will never be enough. No pleasing them until every last person born overseas is sent back.

  33. “I would be quite content with being outside the customs union but with the four freedoms remaining in place.”

    I could live with that and I hope we’ll get something close to it. No doubt with dollops of fudge and calling things by different names. The customs union would still cause problems in NI under this scenario however.

    The $64000 question is whether such a compromise would collapse the government and indeed the Conservative party itself.

    To me a second referendum only really makes sense when the dust has settled and passions have simmered down….perhaps after 5 years of experiencing a Norway Brexit we can be asked whether we want to remain in that state, move further away from the EU or go back in. With the government using the 5 years to properly prepare in case the further out option wins.

  34. “But I discovered Mike Smithson Polling Betting founder and Lib Dem activist voted Labour in 2017 but won’t do next because of Brexit policy. What bewilders me is Labour’s manifesto said ‘out of FoM and CU. So what’s changed for him to change his mind. I have my own views but I voted Labour aware of the position and I’m not suddenly vote for someone else because of their position when I voted for them knowing what it was. The policy didn’t change. Mike still doesn’t like the policy. So what’s changed”

    Like many Lib Dems, Mike Smithson is a self-important relic who still seems to be living in the era when waving “Winning Here” placards and publishing dodgy barcharts won them improbable by-elections on sensational swings. Today such people just look like weird saddos refusing to accept the world has moved on. The fact that the party remains dominated by people like him is a major reason why they haven’t broken out of their miniscule 7-9% vote share despite the gargantuan space available in the centre ground of politics today.

    Though I feel strongly about Brexit it did not impact my vote in 2017 and I’m guessing that’s true for most of the electorate. I don’t blame T May for Brexit, though a Remainer herself she has to respect the referendum result and same goes for J Corbyn. Were Boris or Mogg to lead the Tories I might think differently. My wife did switch from Con to LD over Brexit in 2017 but I’m now glad I didn’t. In general I think men find it harder to switch their vote.

  35. Which is very strange when you think Labour’s failure to win over women during the 80s and 90s was what lost elections for them.

  36. I have yet to meet a voter on the doorstep who has brought up Brexit. May be Mike needs to do more of that

  37. “Which is very strange when you think Labour’s failure to win over women during the 80s and 90s was what lost elections for them.”

    I think the 80s and early 90s were the tail end of Labour’s problem with women. It stretched right back to Stanley Baldwin and perhaps further than that.

    Male voters up until the 80s were heavily unionised and therefore heavily politicised to the Labour cause.

    My great grandma was a miners’ wife and utterly disdainful of my great granddad’s NUM activities. “You bloody lot couldn’t run a bath let alone the country” etc etc. And voted Tory all her life. I suspect that working class Labour heartlands contained quite a few women like my great grandma in days gone by.

    Today women work much more than they used to, but disproportionately in the public sector and in low paid professions. And, it’s even visible in rich areas like where I live, school cuts go down really really badly with the young mums demographic.

  38. Cllr John Doddy has called off the attack. Anna Soubry survives, for now at least.

    One suspects this is because the local Tories are rather fonder of her than he thought. Now, Mr Doddy, why don’t you get back to working for the people who elected you to the council?

  39. Guido publicising the case has backfired spectacularly. Looks like it spurred CCHQ to come down like a tonne of bricks on Cllr Doddy, forcing him to issue a humiliating retraction. One of the most realistic depictions in the (UK) House of Cards trilogy was the huge leverage CCHQ and the party leadership can exert over senior constituency officers, especially those with political ambitions and/or skeletons in the cupboard. Doddy clearly has ambitions to become an MP and he will have been told in no uncertain terms that his political career will be over before it has started unless he abandons the witch hunt against Soubry.

  40. That actually makes much more sense than what I wrote.

  41. Soubry lives to fight another day. This will upset the right wing of the Tory party, which naturally delights me.

1 9 10 11
Leave a Reply

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)