Broxtowe

2015 Result:
Conservative: 24163 (45.2%)
Labour: 19876 (37.2%)
Lib Dem: 2120 (4%)
Green: 1544 (2.9%)
UKIP: 5674 (10.6%)
Others: 63 (0.1%)
MAJORITY: 4287 (8%)

Category: Marginal Conservative seat

Geography: East Midlands, Nottinghamshire. Part of Broxtowe council area.

Main population centres: Beeston, Stapleford, Kimberley, Nuthall, Awsworth.

Profile: This seat is essentially the more affluent owner-occupied western suburbs of Nottingham that lie outside the city boundary. There is a high level of owner-occupation, very little social housing and a high proportion of residents commute into Nottingham for work.

Politics: A marginal between Labour and the Conservatives. The Conservatives won on a wafer thin majority in 2010 and the ousted Labour MP Nick Palmer attempted a return in 2015, only to see the Tory majority grow to eight percent..


Current MP
ANNA SOUBRY (Conservative) Born 1956, Worksop. Educated at Birmingham University. Former barrister and journalist. Contested Gelding 2005. First elected as MP for Broxtowe in 2010. PPS to Simon Burns 2010-2012, Under-secretary of State for Heath 2012-2013, Under-secretary of State for Defence 2013-2014, Minister of State for Defence 2014-2015. Minister of State for Small business since 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 20585 (39%)
Lab: 20196 (38%)
LDem: 8907 (17%)
BNP: 1422 (3%)
Oth: 1617 (3%)
MAJ: 389 (1%)
2005*
Con: 18161 (37%)
Lab: 20457 (42%)
LDem: 7837 (16%)
GRN: 896 (2%)
Oth: 1455 (3%)
MAJ: 2296 (5%)
2001
Con: 17963 (37%)
Lab: 23836 (49%)
LDem: 7205 (15%)
MAJ: 5873 (12%)
1997
Con: 21768 (37%)
Lab: 27343 (47%)
LDem: 6934 (12%)
MAJ: 5575 (10%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
ANNA SOUBRY (Conservative) See above.
NICK PALMER (Labour) Born 1950, London. Educated at MIT, Copenhagen. Director of BUAV, former computer manager and head of computer services at Novartis. Contested Chelsea 1983, MP for Broxtowe 1997-2010. PPS to Malcolm Wicks 2005-2008.
STAN HEPTINSTALL (Liberal Democrat) Born 1946, Bolton. Educated at King Edward VII School and Newcastle University. Emeritus Professor of thrombosis and haemostasis. Broxtowe councillor since 1991, Nottinghamshire councillor since 1997. Awarded the MBE for services to the community in 1997.
FRANK DUNNE (UKIP) Company director.
DAVID KIRWAN (Green) Trade union officer. Contested Newark by-election 2014.
RAY BARRY (Justice for Men and Boys)
Links
Comments - 535 Responses on “Broxtowe”
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  1. As a Labour supporter I have a lot of respect for Ms Soubry. If she was leader of the Conservative Party I might actually be okay with them in government (if not willing to vote for them).

  2. ”The Results- good work. It must have taken a lot of effort…well done.
    I’m inclined to agree with Polltroll re: Soubry. A ray of sunshine she is not, but she is pretty eloquent and is certainly a nice change from the bland platitudes often uttered by politicians. She is also pretty brave re: her stance on immigration (she is probably the most pro- immigration politician in the UK, publically at least).”

    @Tristan first of all may I say a very warm thank you to you for your good wishes for my efforts. I really do appreciate it I mean it 100%.

    Secondly, agreed about Soubry. She isn’t your typical soundbite politician who is identikit and reading from the cabinet papers like most do/have to because it’s their job as a minister. In that sense she certainly is somewhat unique, especially for someone not all that long ago a prominent minister herself. It takes guts to stand out in a good way as a Conservative these days, so fair play to her.

  3. “Unlike other posters, I don’t feel that she personally disliked May…in fact she admitted that May has many good qualities. The real venom was reserved for the flunkies I think.”

    Yes, I think this is probably correct.

    Worth remembering that May is not on the right of the party really, and was considered the most centrist candidate for the leadership in 2016. I would be surprised if Soubry didn’t vote for her then.

    Her analysis of May was accurate in the sense that she is very capable and gifted at her job, but has shown a terrible ineptitude to adapt to the different more open campaigning style needed of a Prime Minister (albeit she may be a good PM, let’s not debate that here). May might have got away with it against the likes of Corbyn (but definitely not against a Blair) if the communication / defence lines around the manifesto had been well-prepared (and briefed to the cabinet).

  4. I feel that in the fairly near future neighbouring Rushcliffe could resemble closely this seat in its voting patterns…

  5. ^With Labour really taking a hit in their traditional Notts heartlands, you think the battle could move to the Nottingham suburbs? They’ve been resilient as hell in Gedling and Broxtowe looks competitive.

    Can’t see Rushcliffe changing hands soon. It may be after Ken Clarke goes if Labour becomes more competitive. There was a good spike in their vote this time, their near 12% rise seemingly proportionate to the decline in UKIP and Green votes. Clarke’s majority is now around 8000.

    As for others Notts seats, they’ll struggle to retake Mansfield unless they’re on course for a majority, Ashfield is in big trouble (now a three figure trouble) and even Bassetlaw is moving away from Labour. Sherwood is as good as gone imo. It may be one of those seats they win for 1 or 2 terms before swinging back to the Tories.

  6. I wouldn’t be so pessimistic about Labour’s medium term prospects in Mansfield et al. They did very badly in those places this time, but I suspect the high level of Cons support with this demographic may be an unusual phenomenon associated with Brexit and (the pre-June 8 version of) Corbyn, and could fall away big time if the Tory govt continues to become increasingly unpopular over the coming years.

  7. Labour almost lost Mansfield in 1987 because of specific ramifications from the miners’ strike. When it became clear that Scargill had been right about pit closures, the seat swung very heavily back to Labour – in 1992 the swing to Labour was the highest in the whole of Britain, and as it happens my friend Gary Mond was the Tory candidate who was on the end of that swing – he insists it wasn’t his fault to this day! (and I believe him). By 1997 the Labour majority was back up to 20,000 there. It may be that class-based voting is weakening permanently, but with politics increasingly polarised between a more socialist Labour Party and a Tory Party whose economic policies are not Keynesian as they were under Heath and before, it would be unwise to assume that class-based voting is not about to make a significant comeback at some point.

  8. Sherwood and Mansfield both would fall to Labour if Labour won a majority.
    Rushcliffe now would have fell in 1997 with what seems to be demographic changes there.

  9. Sherwood looks to be getting worse for Labour. It’s a seat they last held seven years ago as well- something similar has happened in North Warwickshire, Tamworth, North West Leicestershire, South Derbyshire and Amber Valley in the Midlands for Labour…

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