Bromsgrove

2015 Result:
Conservative: 28133 (53.8%)
Labour: 11604 (22.2%)
Lib Dem: 2616 (5%)
Green: 1729 (3.3%)
UKIP: 8163 (15.6%)
MAJORITY: 16529 (31.6%)

Category: Very safe Conservative seat

Geography: West Midlands, Hereford and Worcester. The whole of the Bromsgrove council area.

Main population centres: Bromsgrove, Alvechurch, Hollywood, Barnt Green, Dodford, Hagley, Rubery.

Profile: This is an affluent commuter seat curling around the southern boundary of the West Midlands conurbation, and made up the town of Bromsgrove and the neighbouring dormitory villages. There has been significant growth through private housing developments over recent decades.

Politics: While Bromsgrove itself has some reliable Labour areas in its council estates, on the whole this is a safe Conservative seat. It was briefly held by Labour after a 1971 by-election and was marginal throughout the 1970s, but once Redditch was moved into its own seat in the 1983 boundary changes the new Bromsgrove seat became a solid Tory bastion. Until 2010 the seat was represented by Julie Kirkbride, one of the most high profile Conservative casualties of the expenses scandal, who stood down in the face of public and media criticism of her expenses claims.


Current MP
SAJID JAVID (Conservative) Born 1969, Rochdale. Educated at Downend School and Exeter University. Former banker. First elected as MP for Bromsgrove in 2010. Economic Secretary to the Treasury 2012-2013, Financial Secretary to the Treasury 2013-2014, Secretary of State for Culture 2014-2015. Secretary of State for Business since 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 22558 (44%)
Lab: 11250 (22%)
LDem: 10124 (20%)
UKIP: 2950 (6%)
Oth: 4748 (9%)
MAJ: 11308 (22%)
2005
Con: 24387 (51%)
Lab: 14307 (30%)
LDem: 7197 (15%)
UKIP: 1919 (4%)
MAJ: 10080 (21%)
2001
Con: 23640 (52%)
Lab: 15502 (34%)
LDem: 5430 (12%)
UKIP: 1112 (2%)
MAJ: 8138 (18%)
1997
Con: 24620 (47%)
Lab: 19725 (38%)
LDem: 6200 (12%)
Oth: 251 (0%)
MAJ: 4895 (9%)

Demographics
2015 Candidates
SAJID JAVID (Conservative) See above.
TOM EBBUTT (Labour) Born Bromsgrove. Educated at Waseley Hills High School and Cambridge University. Operations director of a education charity. Hackey councillor since 2010.
BART RICKETTS (Liberal Democrat)
STUART CROSS (UKIP)
SPOZ ESPOSITO (Green)
Links
Comments - 123 Responses on “Bromsgrove”
  1. Lol those who calculated that siding against their own Base with Dc might have made a mistake.
    After the personal Boris stuff in a live national debate I have to wonder if Amber Rudd has a political future.

  2. Well, no. But, again, I doubt the Rudd’s and the Soubry’s of the world want to be part of a Johnson Cabinet.

  3. HH I do like that analogy! Gove Chancellor?

    Another question – is Gideon finished? Hearing he might reach an accommodation with Boris to deliver enough MP’s in exchange for a future.

  4. Amber Rudd’s future is most likely becoming a mid ranking schoolmistress at St Trinians. For all the chaos of Brexit, we’ll at least be able to stop her closing down all our power stations.

  5. Maybe we can even bring back coal mining and opel fruits

  6. The idea of Osborne delivering his clique (most likely Hancock etc) to Johnson is an intriguing one. Johnson would risk being opposed from the right in such a scenario, and falling into 3rd place between (say) Fox and May.

  7. We still have a bit of coal mining, ironically most of it in Scotland now. Nothing deep underground though.

  8. Amber Rudd — the person who thinks all coal-fired power stations can be closed down within three and a half years.

  9. I imagine Boris would make Andrea Leadsom Chancellor and put Michael Gove in charge of Brexit negotiations (and Deputy PM/ First Sec of State). Theresa May might be Foreign Sec (having been beaten in the leadership election).

  10. Not sure IDS would want to come back, or where he would go, but Boris may consider it polite to ask if he wanted to take, say, defence. Patel would obviously get a proper cabinet job – not sure which one. It wouldn’t be all Leavers and the likes of Morgan, Rudd, Crabb would probably stay in the cabinet.

  11. I think the person leading the negotiations (Gove, almost certainly) will be a separate post from Foreign Sec – officially they may take the title of Chancellor of the Duchy of Lancaster, currently held by Oliver Letwin, and may also be Deputy PM or First Secretary of State. Co-ordinating a massive set of negotiations whilst also leading on Syria and all the other foreign policy issues would be too big a job for one person

  12. Andy’s comment from the first page explains why Leave won:

    “Life was getting noticeably better for ordinary people in Western countries until about 10 years ago. Since then it’s been very mixed, which explains the appeal of people like Trump, Wilders, etc. They wouldn’t have got anywhere if things had continued improving as they did from 1945 to 2005.”

  13. He was right, although I’m still curious as to how voting to leave the EU will actually improve the lives of people with no education or talents. Life doesn’t owe you a living. Still, it is nice for them to have their moment in the sun. And when you have nothing going for you in the first place, I suppose you just don’t care any more.

  14. “Life doesn’t owe you a living.”

    Unless you’re a fatcat.

    This is the other aspect to what Andy said.

    Socioeconomic mobility has been in decline for at least a decade.

    Meanwhile the wealth and power of those at the top has grown irrespective of how incompetent and corrupt they are.

  15. Newsnight speculating that Crabb may run on a joint ticket with Javid as leader/deputy leader.

    Andrea Leadsom was the other name floated.

  16. Maxim: I’d say that’s only half-true. You don’t get given a first-class degree from Oxford just because your parents know the right people.

    Nevertheless, the Conservative message of self-improvement through hard work sounds far more authentic out of the mouth of Steven Crabb or one of the other of the handful of working-class Tories.

  17. MP-R – Remainians will never have a problem being accommodated. They’re already over 75% of the Cabinet.

    Europhiles have been overrepresented in every post-WWII Cabinet.

    Thatcherite backbenchers famously told Maggie that she should appoint more of her supporters. Indeed if she had done, she probably wouldn’t have been deposed in Nov 1990.

  18. PollTroll – but DC didn’t need that to get a job – he famously got someone to ring the Palace.

    GO has always been heir to a fortune (and an Irish title).

    It’ll be interesting if either do anything next.

  19. “I think that was truly prophetic on Andy’s part.”

    I didn’t think I was writing anything particularly original but thanks anyway. The interesting thing is that it’s more of a spiritual malaise rather than a material one, (despite the 2008 crash). There’s no shortage of enormous flat screen TVs for example. Obesity is out of control, cars are massive compared to just a few years ago.

  20. True (up to a point).

    In an actual recession voters tend not to take risks “and cling to nurse for fear of worse.”

    However, there was a Sunday Times piece a couple of months ago re 20 indicators why things have got worse (largely about Tuition Fees and the general debt burden).

    But these indicators also included the lack of fathers, Sunday family time and roast dinners, new houses being smaller: I think it said private housing today was half of the square footage of those council houses built in the 1920s with large gardens (esp fop the young flats sharing in London, who also had no through flow of air). There’s clearly more consumer durables but also debt. Although near 0% interest rates are a blessing and a curse depending which demographic you speak to.

  21. “The interesting thing is that it’s more of a spiritual malaise rather than a material one”

    There is a sense that fairness has disappeared from society.

    Bryan Appleyard wrote a very good article in the STimes on this issue.

    You only have to consider the collapse of BHS to see that things haven’t changed since the collapse of the banks – that the cost is inflicted on workers while fatcats and ‘City advisors’ walk away with fortunes.

  22. Poor penniless Boris. And Nigel, the well known scion of the proletariat.

    Ah well, at least when Corbyn gets the boot, he can retire to his country estate.

  23. “if Brexit hurts the poorest, why were all the Remainers millionaires?”

    It’s pretty clear that making fuel and other imports much more expensive, without a corresponding wage or benefits increase, will hit the poorest hardest. I don’t see what that has got to do with who in which campaign was a millionaire. You may well by right that Brexit will turn out OK in the longer term but the medium term shock will burn on the poor very hard indeed.

  24. ‘It’s pretty clear that making fuel and other imports much more expensive, without a corresponding wage or benefits increase, will hit the poorest hardest.’

    It’s more the way it’s always been#

    When economies stagnate and go into recession it’s always thise at the bottom who get hit the hardest whether that’s due to unemployment or austerity

    Austerity and immigration are a toxic mix and people at the bottom who feel they aren’t doing well under the current system are always going to vote for the option of change because they feel they have nothing further to lose – which i think regrettably will be exposed as a myth in the years to come

    You can’t have too much sympathy, given its them who made this happen

  25. “You can’t have too much sympathy, given its them who made this happen”

    Their children didn’t, however, and they will suffer the most.

    The other consequence of all this, not to be overlooked, is the appalling increase in low level racist abuse

  26. They existed, but the result has made certain people think it is acceptable to shout stuff in the street to a degree not seen since the Enoch Powell days. And in some cases it has turned physical. Someone my wife knows was followed outside the supermarket and beaten up yesterday in Aldershot – all because someone behind her in the queue at the till heard her American accent.

  27. “When economies stagnate and go into recession it’s always thise at the bottom who get hit the hardest whether that’s due to unemployment or austerity”

    And when they grow the workers then make get higher wages.

    Or have always done so previously.

    But not now.

    Because unlimited immigration allows wages to be held down and property prices to be forced up. Both to the benefit of the ‘1%’.

  28. Rumour that Javid has been sacked. This is becoming very brutal!

  29. it is very brutal. Will lead to interesting headlines. Especially as Javid is the only BAME man in the cabinet. Pritti Patel seems safe in the cabinet as she was very Pro Theresa May but I cant think of any BAME men to maybe join the cabinet. A reduction in the amount of BAME members wont lead to positive headlines

  30. Shailesh Vara may have had a chance but I think he backed Gove.

    Maybe we’ll see 1 or 2 BAME men as junior ministers.

  31. Sam Gyimah has a good chance of a cabinet or attends cabinet post.

    Javid rumour is still unconfirmed and not being stated with as much conviction as Hunt being sacked.

  32. BBC suggesting that Javid is staying put.

  33. As the Joint Business and Energy Sec. I wonder if Climate Change duties will go back to Environment.

  34. I think he will most probably keep his post.

  35. Javid gets DCLG. A bit of a demotion.

  36. Actually not. He is now the communities Secretary which in some ways is a demotion.

  37. Communities Secretary. A demotion?

  38. A pretty major job currently with the expected greater emphasis on housing / infrastructure continuing.

  39. Quite Possibly.

  40. Referring back to the discussion of previous pages about stagnating incomes, there is a very illustrative graph at the bottom of this BBC article:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-39966615

  41. Sajid Javid keeps his place in the cabinet.

  42. Sajid Javid is the new favourite to be next leader among the membership.

  43. Despite having reservations about him, I think he’s definitely the best pick at present. It will look pretty pathetic for Labour too; not only have the Tories had two female PMs, but also the first ethnic minority PM as well.

  44. Perhaps more significantly than his race, he’s the son of a bus driver – I don’t think any previous PM has had such a modest upbringing.

    At least he’s a better candidate than the previous members’ favourite, Jacob Rees Mogg, whose previous presence at the top of these polls probably said more about the current cabinet than it did about him.

  45. along with Sadiq Khan and Baroness Wasi.

    yes but Labour has done far more for womens’ and BAME rights. Do I think we should have a Labour female or BAME PM, yes but more than anything I want a PM who legislate to improve the lives of women and BAME.

  46. No way JRM was ever going to happen. He will never get the backing of a sufficient number of Tory MPs to get nominated in the first place.

  47. ‘Perhaps more significantly than his race, he’s the son of a bus driver – I don’t think any previous PM has had such a modest upbringing’

    Surely John Major is a contender – he came from a m,odest background

    ‘At least he’s a better candidate than the previous members’ favourite, Jacob Rees Mogg, whose previous presence at the top of these polls probably said more about the current cabinet than it did about him.’

    I think it says even more about the type of people who dominate today’s conservative party – the old and the thick

    ‘think he’s definitely the best pick at present.’

    Whereas that tells us acres about the sort of talent in today’s cabinet

    Javid’s front-runner status is again down to the implausibility of the other contenders – Hunt who clearly sees himself as a future leader, hence his saying idiotic things about Brexit that he’s never believed in, in a pathetic attempt to shore up support, Gove who’s as unpopular with the public as ever, or Boris Johnson who has effectively become a hate figure both with the public and the cabinet for his consistent disloyality and ludicrous comments that reinforce his hard-earnt image as a complete and utter moron

  48. “Perhaps more significantly than his race, he’s the son of a bus driver – I don’t think any previous PM has had such a modest upbringing.”

    Major and Callaghan certainly beat Javid in the “we were right poor when I were a lad” stakes. Heath’s father was a carpenter I think? Perhaps a bit higher up the strata than a bus driver but hardly a big difference.

  49. I think Heath’s Dad was a builder. At least that’s what he says in both the docu and drama on the rise of Maggie (and why Heath as Chief Whip didn’t act on patrician advice and tell MPs not to vote for Maggie).

    Yes, Brown, Major, Maggie, Heath were all from ordinary backgrounds. D & Blair were the odd ones in modern times.

  50. Yes that’s right about Heath I think. Builder is of course a wide ranging term.

    Being son of a clergyman puts Brown firmly in the middle class and Maggie as well

    Callaghan is the only really genuinely working class Labour leader. I seem to recall his father died young and he grew up in severe poverty. It would be hard to determine whether he or Major grew up poorer. Probably Callaghan overall as the Majors lived in Surrey suburbia before they were forced to downsize to Brixton.

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