Bromsgrove

2015 Result:
Conservative: 28133 (53.8%)
Labour: 11604 (22.2%)
Lib Dem: 2616 (5%)
Green: 1729 (3.3%)
UKIP: 8163 (15.6%)
MAJORITY: 16529 (31.6%)

Category: Very safe Conservative seat

Geography: West Midlands, Hereford and Worcester. The whole of the Bromsgrove council area.

Main population centres: Bromsgrove, Alvechurch, Hollywood, Barnt Green, Dodford, Hagley, Rubery.

Profile: This is an affluent commuter seat curling around the southern boundary of the West Midlands conurbation, and made up the town of Bromsgrove and the neighbouring dormitory villages. There has been significant growth through private housing developments over recent decades.

Politics: While Bromsgrove itself has some reliable Labour areas in its council estates, on the whole this is a safe Conservative seat. It was briefly held by Labour after a 1971 by-election and was marginal throughout the 1970s, but once Redditch was moved into its own seat in the 1983 boundary changes the new Bromsgrove seat became a solid Tory bastion. Until 2010 the seat was represented by Julie Kirkbride, one of the most high profile Conservative casualties of the expenses scandal, who stood down in the face of public and media criticism of her expenses claims.


Current MP
SAJID JAVID (Conservative) Born 1969, Rochdale. Educated at Downend School and Exeter University. Former banker. First elected as MP for Bromsgrove in 2010. Economic Secretary to the Treasury 2012-2013, Financial Secretary to the Treasury 2013-2014, Secretary of State for Culture 2014-2015. Secretary of State for Business since 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 22558 (44%)
Lab: 11250 (22%)
LDem: 10124 (20%)
UKIP: 2950 (6%)
Oth: 4748 (9%)
MAJ: 11308 (22%)
2005
Con: 24387 (51%)
Lab: 14307 (30%)
LDem: 7197 (15%)
UKIP: 1919 (4%)
MAJ: 10080 (21%)
2001
Con: 23640 (52%)
Lab: 15502 (34%)
LDem: 5430 (12%)
UKIP: 1112 (2%)
MAJ: 8138 (18%)
1997
Con: 24620 (47%)
Lab: 19725 (38%)
LDem: 6200 (12%)
Oth: 251 (0%)
MAJ: 4895 (9%)

Demographics
2015 Candidates
SAJID JAVID (Conservative) See above.
TOM EBBUTT (Labour) Born Bromsgrove. Educated at Waseley Hills High School and Cambridge University. Operations director of a education charity. Hackey councillor since 2010.
BART RICKETTS (Liberal Democrat)
STUART CROSS (UKIP)
SPOZ ESPOSITO (Green)
Links
Comments - 137 Responses on “Bromsgrove”
  1. I wonder how well Javid will do here in 2015? The 2010 result no doubt reflected the hangover from the expenses scandal. Perhaps 48-30 over Labour?

  2. Tom Ebbutt selected for Labour.

  3. Combined con lab looks high there tory.

  4. ‘The 2010 result no doubt reflected the hangover from the expenses scandal. Perhaps 48-30 over Labour?’

    There were a handful of safe Tory seats where the adoption of a non-white candidate seemed to cause the Tory vote to decline – here, Spelthorne, Maidstone – and others where it made no difference at all – Surrey East, Stratford Upon Avon

  5. Sajid Javid has been appointed Secretary of State for Culture, Media and Sport.

    There seems to be a very high UKIP/BNP/Independent Con vote here. Could be dangerous for him?

  6. Well done to Cameron for promoting on merit not on sex. Though in the forthcoming reshuffle I expect there will be a Soubry, Truss or a McVey coming into cabinet. Culture has changed from a post where underperforming lightweights can’t do much harm into an important cabinet post which requires an astute secretary of state. Leveson and the Murdoch monopoly issue have been the key factors here. I think Javid will do a good job.

  7. I wonder if there’s another shadow cabinet reshuffle coming up. With a fresh face in Sajid Javed, I reckon someone in Labour ought to take over Harriet Harman now.

  8. She’s certainly well past her sell by date, however her insane rules on the leader or deputy leader having to be a woman will leave her as a millstone round Labour’s neck for many years yet, to the benefit of the Tories.

  9. Sajid Javid must thank his lucky stars for Tory women who muck up their expenses.

  10. Prediction for 2015-
    Javid (Conservative)- 41%
    Labour- 28%
    UKIP- 15%
    Liberal Democrat- 10%
    Others- 6%

  11. Way too pessimistic for the Tories. I think they’ll go up, perhaps touching 50% again. In some seats where they did well in 2010, UKIP will reach a ceiling. Certainly Labour wouldn’t get near to 28% if UKIP were at 15%.

  12. I wonder if Javid could lose more votes to UKIP here? I genuinely think he can TBH.

  13. Javid was one of the last names that came into my head this morning when I was trying to predict who Maria Miller’s replacement would be.

    I thought it’d either be Helen Grant or another cabinet minister moving sideways to allow Michael Fallon to enter the cabinet with a portfolio which he is more suited to.

  14. Neil, I can think of two people who need to be re-shuffled out of the shadow cabinet asap. They’re both called Ed.

  15. Adam – I doubt Helen Grant will ever be promoted again, after her stint at the MoJ.

  16. “I thought it’d either be Helen Grant or another cabinet minister moving sideways to allow Michael Fallon to enter the cabinet with a portfolio which he is more suited to.”

    It was never going to be Michael Fallon. Cameron didn’t want another white man in the cabinet — allegedly.

  17. “I doubt Helen Grant will ever be promoted again, after her stint at the MoJ.”

    She’s not much cop as sports minister by the sounds of things too. Seems like a nice person though.

  18. Two nerdish observations:

    (a) Julie Kirkbride’s father was a lorry driver, Sajid Javid’s father was a bus driver.

    (b) Sajid Javid has indirectly benefited from the expenses scandals. Firstly Julie Kirkbride had to stand down because of it, and now he’s been promoted to the cabinet over the same topic with Maria Miller.

  19. Which seats was the Bromsgrove area in before 1950?

  20. Harry I don’t have the encyclopaedic data of some people here, but it was I think in Kidderminster in 1945, and presumably in the 1930s as well.

  21. I think you’re right, John. Before 1918 it will have been in Austen Chamberlain’s seat of East Worcestershire.

  22. Yes on checking Wikipedia both the urban and rural districts of Bromsgrove were indeed in Kidderminster from 1918 to 1950, along with the urban district of North Bromsgrove.

  23. Liberal Democrat candidate- Bart Ricketts.

  24. There really are some bizarre names among Candidates this year. Most seem to be new Labour PPCs, but the Green and LDs here are in the top 20.

  25. Conserative Hold. 9,000 majority.

  26. Quite a mixed bag in the top ten. Brent Central’s an interesting one.

  27. Obviously huge tactical voting by Tories for Sarah Teather in 2010.

  28. Sajid Javid winning friends:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/02/24/steel-sector-wont-be-bailed-out-like-the-banks-says-sajid-javid/

    Anyone want to guess what Sajid Javid’s career was before he entered politics ?

    Telling people that ‘people like me are more important than people like you’ suggests that Javid might not be as politically talented as he’s been hyped up to be.

  29. I don’t like Sajid Javid much, but what could he actually say? His poor choice of words and arrogance aside, the steel industry has long been in decline in this country, something neither party is able to prevent.

  30. A poor choice of words and arrogance aren’t the attributes of a successful politician.

  31. Richard- his comments sum up a lot of what is currently wrong with the Conservative party.

  32. “the steel industry has long been in decline in this country”

    At least in regard to the last 5/6 years, that statement is totally wrong. UK steel production increased by 28% between 2011 and 2014, and the rising trend was only reversed in 2015 due to the well publicised problems with high imports. Full data-

    UK crude steel production (million tonnes)

    2010 9.782
    2011 9.521
    2012 9.820
    2013 11.951
    2014 12.185
    2015 10.783

    I have worked in the steel sector for nearly 20 years and I perceive that one of the big problems UK heavy industry has is that the media and politics in this country is infested with smug know-alls like yourself who continually make dismissive and derogatory statements doing down British industry which have absolutely no basis in fact. Few people bother to check whether such statements are true and they therefore get believed at the highest levels.

  33. Hemmelig, I’ve been told that the steel industry just requires fewer people to make the same amount of steel, giving the perception of decline through employment figures rather than output.

  34. Requiring fewer people to make the same amount of steel is an improvement, not a decline.

  35. Well yes, but I’m simply saying if everyone around you is becoming unemployed that may be an economic reality but it’s hardly likely to engender good feeling

  36. By the logic of Mr Nameless, we need to go back to the days of farms using hundreds of peasants to bring in the harvest by hand, and to return to the huge Soviet style industrial complexes employing tens of thousands of people, 95% of them doing nothing useful (and believe me I’ve worked for Russians and seen such places). And if this is what Labour moderates now think like, what do the Corbynites now believe in? It’s as if every hard lesson Blair forced his party to learn about industry and economics has been totally forgotten again.

  37. I never said that, I accept that technological progress does inevitably make some jobs obsolete – my point was about the perception of such job losses leading to people believing industries are in decline even as production goes up, simply because most people don’t check output figures and go on their personal experience. It’s not simply journos and the like who are responsible for that belief.

  38. From this thread, we could just as easily say that Tory supporters like Hemmelig are telling us we should celebrate people losing their jobs. It’s about as accurate as saying Mr. Nameless wants to go back to collecting the harvest by hand.

  39. Yes it is, because there is total indifference to what is going on in industry in the media and politics here. In Germany, production figures are reported in the papers and on the news and as a consequence the general population is much better informed. It is highly depressing that the Arthur Scargill mindset about the link between prosperity and employment seems to be marching back in the Labour party.

  40. However, on an individual level, it is difficult to be both prosperous and unemployed.

  41. Andy54 is clearly a commie.

  42. “we could just as easily say that Tory supporters like Hemmelig are telling us we should celebrate people losing their jobs.”

    We should certainly celebrate the economy becoming more productive. Unfortunately, it isn’t. Without rising productivity you have either stagnant wages or rising debt, in the UK’s case both.

  43. “We should certainly celebrate the economy becoming more productive. Unfortunately, it isn’t. Without rising productivity you have either stagnant wages or rising debt, in the UK’s case both.”

    More of an ‘and’ rather than an ‘either/or’.

    Increased productivity means pay rises are affordable, without it increased debt is required to fund ever increasing consumption.

    The ONS gives GDP per head back to 1955. The average annual increases are:

    1956-1965 2.5%
    1966-1975 2.1%
    1976-1985 2.3%
    1986-1995 2.3%
    1996-2005 2.6%
    2006-2015 0.5%

  44. Yes, those statistics are very sobering indeed.

    Basically, we’ve drifted into a consumerist economic model whereby the only way total GDP can grow is by huge immigration and population increase, with GDP per head barely changing at all.

  45. Life was getting noticeably better for ordinary people in Western countries until about 10 years ago. Since then it’s been very mixed, which explains the appeal of people like Trump, Wilders, etc. They wouldn’t have got anywhere if things had continued improving as they did from 1945 to 2005.

  46. HH made a good point about the referendum calling out all the pretend eurosceptics.

    Where does the result leave such Tory MP’s?

  47. I think it depends, obviously, on the level of Euroscepticism they have previously ‘displayed’ for opportune political advantage. Javid is hugely discredited and damaged goods; he made his Euroscepticism a huge part of his political persona. Someone like Theresa May won’t be too damaged; she’s only said mildly Eurosceptic, non definitive things about Europe really. It certainly wasn’t a huge part of her appeal/ persona.

  48. That said, does Theresa May really want to work for Boris? I wouldn’t have thought so.

  49. Robberbutton – given your moniker I thought you’d appreciate this….

    It has been suggested that if Boris becomes PM he will be a Prince George figure, and will need someone to be his Blackadder behind the scenes….Gove an obvious candidate, I doubt May would be willing to do it.

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