Bromsgrove

2015 Result:
Conservative: 28133 (53.8%)
Labour: 11604 (22.2%)
Lib Dem: 2616 (5%)
Green: 1729 (3.3%)
UKIP: 8163 (15.6%)
MAJORITY: 16529 (31.6%)

Category: Very safe Conservative seat

Geography: West Midlands, Hereford and Worcester. The whole of the Bromsgrove council area.

Main population centres: Bromsgrove, Alvechurch, Hollywood, Barnt Green, Dodford, Hagley, Rubery.

Profile: This is an affluent commuter seat curling around the southern boundary of the West Midlands conurbation, and made up the town of Bromsgrove and the neighbouring dormitory villages. There has been significant growth through private housing developments over recent decades.

Politics: While Bromsgrove itself has some reliable Labour areas in its council estates, on the whole this is a safe Conservative seat. It was briefly held by Labour after a 1971 by-election and was marginal throughout the 1970s, but once Redditch was moved into its own seat in the 1983 boundary changes the new Bromsgrove seat became a solid Tory bastion. Until 2010 the seat was represented by Julie Kirkbride, one of the most high profile Conservative casualties of the expenses scandal, who stood down in the face of public and media criticism of her expenses claims.


Current MP
SAJID JAVID (Conservative) Born 1969, Rochdale. Educated at Downend School and Exeter University. Former banker. First elected as MP for Bromsgrove in 2010. Economic Secretary to the Treasury 2012-2013, Financial Secretary to the Treasury 2013-2014, Secretary of State for Culture 2014-2015. Secretary of State for Business since 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 22558 (44%)
Lab: 11250 (22%)
LDem: 10124 (20%)
UKIP: 2950 (6%)
Oth: 4748 (9%)
MAJ: 11308 (22%)
2005
Con: 24387 (51%)
Lab: 14307 (30%)
LDem: 7197 (15%)
UKIP: 1919 (4%)
MAJ: 10080 (21%)
2001
Con: 23640 (52%)
Lab: 15502 (34%)
LDem: 5430 (12%)
UKIP: 1112 (2%)
MAJ: 8138 (18%)
1997
Con: 24620 (47%)
Lab: 19725 (38%)
LDem: 6200 (12%)
Oth: 251 (0%)
MAJ: 4895 (9%)

Demographics
2015 Candidates
SAJID JAVID (Conservative) See above.
TOM EBBUTT (Labour) Born Bromsgrove. Educated at Waseley Hills High School and Cambridge University. Operations director of a education charity. Hackey councillor since 2010.
BART RICKETTS (Liberal Democrat)
STUART CROSS (UKIP)
SPOZ ESPOSITO (Green)
Links
Comments - 187 Responses on “Bromsgrove”
  1. Both Hunt and Javids chances have been dealt a serious blow after a poll of members shows Boris would win

  2. But Boris will struggle to get the final two.

  3. There is clearly a rump of a 100+ MPs who want a ‘proper’ leaver in the final 2. It might not be Boris. It might be Raab or McVey but whoever they propel into the final 2 will likely be popular with an ever increasingly eursceptic membership

  4. There was a recent poll of Conservative Party members which showed 40% of them supported Theresa May’s deal, up from 19% when the vote was first put to MPs in January.

    I think it’s a bit reductive to assume that the most Eurosceptic candidate wins automatically. Remember that frontrunners very rarely win leadership contests, particularly in the Conservative Party.

  5. This is what makes me laugh. Despite everything Theresa May is generally still more popular amongst not just members but the general public than any other candidate and yet 40 Tory rebels have told May she has to go before April if she wants this deal to pass. When do you think it’ll click that she’s not the problem

  6. ‘Both Hunt and Javids chances have been dealt a serious blow after a poll of members shows Boris would win’

    That says rather more about their limitations and the type of people in today’s Conservative Party that it does Johnson’s suitability to leading the Tories

    Javid’s reputation for competence has been seriously put to the test and whilst his lack of compassion might appeal to some of the newer Tory members on the Right of the party, they would probably never back him because of his skin co,or (and more importantly religion) any how

    Hunt’s objective meanwhile – his shameless and utterly unconvincing attempt ton portray himself as a right winger is fooling no one and only seems be losing him support rather than gaining it

    Surely the Tories can do better than Hunt, Javid or Johnson

  7. “Surely the Tories can do better than Hunt, Javid or Johnson”

    While all his cabinet colleagues demonstrate their utter incompetence on a daily basis, Hammond has nearly eliminated Gordon Brown’s humungous deficit. Despite the chaos of Brexit. He’s the only adult left in the room who’s still young enough to do the job (sadly Clarke is too old), like a gold coin glistening on a big pile of horse dung.

    The one saving grace of the past 3 years is that he’s managed to keep the economy ticking over through the chaos. It hardly bears thinking about what would have happened had Johnson or Grayling been made chancellor. And for his achievements, ConHome readers put him bottom of their latest cabinet approval list! As Tim says, that says something about the Tory party today.

    We seem to be looking at a very long extension followed by a new hard leaver Tory PM who will rant about how Theresa May sold us down the river but we can’t do anything about it now.

  8. I agree that Philip Hammond is probably the least objectionable candidate in terms of how he’d run the country, but I also feel he’s uniquely ill-equipped to take on Jeremy Corbyn. Like May, he’s unemotional, unexciting, and his policy platform would be all vegetables and no pudding. That failed last time and there’s no reason to believe it wouldn’t fail again.

  9. ‘That failed last time and there’s no reason to believe it wouldn’t fail again.’

    Big difference Poll

    Hammond’s saving grace is that he’s competent the one thing May isn’t, as she’s illustrated during her time in the top job

  10. Though spreadsheet Phil does have this remarkable ability to fade into the background

  11. ‘Though spreadsheet Phil does have this remarkable ability to fade into the background’

    But that’s because he comes across – and to be fair probably is a little – as boring

    He’s hardly the only cabinet minister you could say that about and it’#s bizarre and says loads about the Tories that the person who achieved what everybody said he couldn’t, and who has thus delivered on the Tory’s central argument in their 2010 manifesto, finds himself behind the likes of Truss, Grayling, Leadsome and Johnson, who have proved their incompetence by performing horrendously in their cabinet roles

  12. though he hasn’t actually got rid of the deficit he’s got a day to day spending surplus which ismt the same thing and likely won’t have got rid of the deficit until 2023

  13. The problem for Spreadsheet Phil is that the Tories themselves have long since abandoned the deficit as a talking point. Regardless of what you think about the Tories’ record in office, it’s remarkable that nobody in government ever praises the “success” of the central policy of Conservative-led governments since 2010.

    The present Labour Party is better at paying lip service to Tony Blair’s achievements than the present Conservative Party is at acknowledging David Cameron, and that’s really saying something.

  14. Sajid Javid wasn’t invited to last night’s banquet.

    Either Donald Trump is far more culturally aware than I had imagined, and he realised that it would be tactless to invite him to a dinner during Ramadan, he was just being his usual racist self.

  15. Alex Whickham of Buzzfeed tweeted a text from a Team Saj source wondering if it was that he didn’t get confused between Sajid Javid and Sadiq Khan.

    Sajid is not a practising muslim so is unlikely to have fasted for Ramadam.

  16. Ruth Davidson (Who tried for selection here in 2010) has endorsed Sajid Javid. Interesting choice as I read that some Scottish Tories feared his tweets on a second Scottish referendum could backfire and boost independence.

    Javid’s solution to the Irish Border issue is just give money to Ireland to improve the border.

  17. Strong Launch for Javid (According to all the pundits). Could he be the dark horse who makes the final two instead of Hunt or Gove.

  18. Yes, Javid and Raab are both good value (20/1 and 33/1).

    The same odds Maggie was in 1975.

    I like how Javid mocked the organic-buying, middle class drug users earlier in the week and the privileged class in both Parties. This will go down well with WWC voters, but obviously 80% of Tory MPs and members are not.

  19. Sajid Javid has called for an independent inquiry into Islamophobia in the Conservative Party.

    He won’t win the leadership, but I hope he sticks by his guns and continues to push for this either in cabinet or from ththe back benches.

  20. Finally Sajid Javid non attendance at the Trump Banquet becomes a story, with him saying he is not sure why he was not invited with Number 10 saying Home Secretary’s don’t usually get invited – but Amber Rudd was invited to state Banquets with the President of Colombia and King of Spain while she was at the home office.

  21. Trump probably can’t even tell the difference between him and Sadiq Khan.

  22. Javid has been offered the chancellor job by Johnson the Times reports.
    If he accepts the current plan is they might have to be a budget in September and it will feature lots of radical tax cuts. I wonder how the no deal supporters in Barnsley will take that

  23. It depends whether they are Thatcherite, fiscally hawkish tax cuts accompanied by spending cuts; or Trumpian, right-wing populist tax cuts accompanied by spending increases. The latter might be relatively popular in the post-industrial north, particularly as Labour is so poorly placed to make anti-deficit arguments.

  24. Also I hear Johnson has dropped his pledge to hold an inquiry into Islamophobia in the Conservative Party. I suspect this may be a red line for Javid.

  25. Well some of the worst islamophobia has come from Boris himself. Whatever your view on the burka, the crassness of his letterboxes comment has set the Tories’ outreach to the muslim vote back many years and likely further encouraged idiots to be abusive.

  26. The letterboxes comment was astonishingly rude and crass. I don’t necessarily agree with the burka (none of my.busineee frankly), but he wasn’t making that comment to.stand up for oppressed Muslim women. He made that comment to give the cheap seats a good laugh.

  27. And that’s the problem with entertaining and provocative journalists becoming senior politicians. Words do indeed have consequences in politics for years if not decades. I was a humble council candidate in an ethnically diverse ward in 2002 and on the doorstep black voters still mentioned Enoch Powell nearly 40 years later.

  28. HH – Powell was not an ‘entertaining and provocative journalist,’ – he was a highly gifted classical scholar, and one of the youngest professors in the Commonwealth.

    As it turns out, his predictions from 1968 have largely turned out to be underestimations.

  29. So fresh from smearing Ken Clarke you now try to twist my words from something I clearly said about Boris, trying to make it sound like I am a fellow supporter the foul Enoch Powell. Why don’t you just get the fuck off of here you odious troll.

  30. HH

    1) I certainly did not smear any individual. You referred to ‘cock gropers’ on the Rushcliffe constituency page – and I made clear that the allegations of that nature made against KC were found to be false. So if anyone is guilty of ‘smearing’ KC, it is certainly you.

    2) Your post heavily implied that you considered EP merely an ‘entertaining and provocative journalist.’ And no, I did not at any point suggest you were a supporter of EP – an influential and high profile statesman of much of the 20th century – who you have now described as ‘foul.’ Another ‘smear.’

    3) You have now used foul and abusive language toward me, presumably for articulating a point you disagree with. Could a moderator please advise the site policy regarding this.

  31. ‘As it turns out, his predictions from 1968 have largely turned out to be underestimations.’

    As I remember it, Powell spoke of ‘rivers of blood’ and such predictions have turned out to not so much wide of the mark but utterly false and retain has evolved into a successful 21st century multicultural country – despite the best efforts of the many hardline Brexiteers

    I never understand people who say Enoch Powell was right – such as Eric Clapton. Powell was wrong – and very wrong at that

  32. “I never understand people who say Enoch Powell was right”

    Online most of them are trolling, as with the odious example on here. I suppose that’s better than the Tommy Robinsonites who seriously do think that he was right.

  33. The most wild of his predictions was of course, “The black man will have the whip-hand over the white.”

    Which is total nonsense of course. I can’t think off the top of my head who the most powerful black person in Britain is – to be honest the competition for that title is so poor that Stormzy must be in the running…

  34. Thankfully colonial language such as talking about whip hands seems archaic today and is of little relevance to modern society, indeed that can be said about Powell’s influence in general.

    My original point though was that his words are still remembered and they continue to lose the Tories potential support 50 years on. That is why Boris talking about letterboxes and watermelon smiles etc could be highly damaging not just in the short term but decades into the future.

  35. ‘Rivers of blood’ isn’t “utterly false” by anyone’s definition. Although thankfully the Lee Rigby and London Bridge attacks aren’t commonplace.

    Most victim’s blood is of course black people’s too, however, re stabbings and gang violence in London perpetuated by black youths.

    Polling shows Powell was popular – as were his interventions in various elections; but, he has become one of those names even Tory MPs prefer not to mention [unlike in the 1980s and 1990s – as Maggie often referred to him, as did Tony Benn]

  36. Sajid Javid has endorsed Boris (in a clear bid to be chancellor of course.)

  37. Sajid Javid appointed as chancellor.

    Nobody expects that we have not had an election by this time next year – if not a lot sooner.

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