Bromley & Chislehurst

2015 Result:
Conservative: 23343 (53%)
Labour: 9779 (22.2%)
Lib Dem: 2836 (6.4%)
Green: 1823 (4.1%)
UKIP: 6285 (14.3%)
MAJORITY: 13564 (30.8%)

Category: Very safe Conservative seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of the Bromley council area.

Main population centres: Bromley, Chislehurst, Bickley.

Profile: Bromley is firmly in the Kentish part of London and, aside from a few housing estates in areas like Mottingham the seat consists of prosperous leafy suburbia.

Politics: Normally a very safe Conservative seat, Bromley and Chislehurst was only narrowly held in the 2006 by-election following the death of Eric Forth after an effective Liberal Democrat campaign focused on the Conservative candidates` home outside the constituency and multiple roles as a barrister, London Assembly member and member of an NHS heath trust. In 2010 the seat returned to normal, posting a towering Tory majority.


Current MP
BOB NEILL (Conservative) Born 1952, Ilford. Educated at Abbs Cross Technical High School and LSE. Former barrister, specialising in criminal law and company fraud. GLC councillor for Romford 1985-1986. Contested Dagenham 1983. Member of the London Assembly for Bexley and Bromley 2000-2008. First elected as MP for Bromley and Chislehurst in 2006 by-election. Stood for election in the 2006 by-election while still a member of the London Assembly and non-executive director of the (then soon to be abolished) North East London Strategic Health Authority, leading to Liberal Democrat attacks upon him as "three jobs Bob".
Past Results
2010
Con: 23569 (54%)
Lab: 7295 (17%)
LDem: 9669 (22%)
UKIP: 1451 (3%)
Oth: 2053 (5%)
MAJ: 13900 (32%)
2005*
Con: 23583 (51%)
Lab: 10241 (22%)
LDem: 9368 (20%)
UKIP: 1475 (3%)
Oth: 1470 (3%)
MAJ: 13342 (29%)
2001
Con: 21412 (50%)
Lab: 12375 (29%)
LDem: 8180 (19%)
UKIP: 1264 (3%)
MAJ: 9037 (21%)
1997
Con: 24428 (46%)
Lab: 13310 (25%)
LDem: 12530 (24%)
Oth: 2470 (5%)
MAJ: 11118 (21%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
BOB NEILL (Conservative) See above.
JOHN COURTNEIDGE (Labour)
SAM WEBBER (Liberal Democrat) Educated at University of East Anglia. Communications consultant. Contested Bromley and Chislehurst 2010.
EMMETT JENNER (UKIP) Born 1981, Hammersmith. Educated at Langley Park Boys School. Works in car maintenance. Contested Bromley and Chistlehurst 2010.
ROISIN ROBERTSON (Green) Journalist. Contested Bromley and Chislehurst 2010.
Links
Comments - 38 Responses on “Bromley & Chislehurst”
  1. Off-topic:

    The 1959 election show has been posted on YouTube. I’m putting the link on this page because the prime minister, Harold Macmillan, was MP for Bromley at the time, (thanks to swanarcadian for drawing attention to this fact in another place):

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ezBx-ro5frg&amp

  2. what’s happened to this page

  3. The 1955 Labour candidate was none other than Gerald Kaufman. I am sure that no-one else who is still in the Commons was a candidate in that election.

  4. Good point – there are only five current MPs who would have been old enough to stand in 1955. Tapsell first stood in a by-election in 1957, the others much later.

  5. Nominations for Bromley Council elections

    http://www.bromley.gov.uk/downloads/file/1922/statement_of_persons_nominated

    111 should note that in the two wards where UKIP have any chance of being elected, they’ve only put up a full slate in one (Cray Valley West). In the other, Cray Valley East, they are standing one candidate only, as they are doing in most other Bromley wards. To me it doesn’t seem like they expect to make a very strong showing.

    The other surprise is that the Lib Dems are not fielding a full slate in some wards, including some wards which they held 10-15 years ago. Suggests they don’t expect to improve on their awful 2010 performance. All in all expect the usual Tory landslide with Labour perhaps picking up a couple of seats.

  6. Sometimes a party will only put up one or two candidates because there can be evidence it attracts more split votes into one place. You are probably right but i’d be wary of being too certain that it means they don’t seriously intend to win seat(s).

  7. Interesting also that the BNP are standing in the three most strongly WWC wards (Cray Valley East, Cray Valley West and Mottingham). They tend to poll several hundred votes in each and will perhaps damage UKIP to a certain extent.

  8. Thanks – these details are interesting.
    Shares of vote will be interesting aswell.

  9. Yes, although probably very low for the BNP practically anywhere in local elections-they are about to lose their last remaining councillors and in boroughs/districts where they once had some presence, they have completely/almost completely disappeared from this year’s electoral scene. All of this is great news, in my opinion, since there should be no room for neo-Nazism in the UK, or anywhere else for that matter!

  10. The BNP are contesting just 4 seats in Barking & Dagenham, so it’s interesting the BNP are contesting only 1 seat less in Bromley by comparison. Shows how far they’ve fallen in B&D.

  11. In Bromley and Lewisham, far right candidates have quite often stood under the NF label rather than BNP, but not this year.

  12. Bromley local elections, popular votes (using highest vote):

    Con 45,068 (39.39%)
    UKIP 22,573 (19.73%)
    Lab 20,886 (18.25%)
    Green 13,168 (11.51%)
    LD 10,902 (9.53%)

    Changes since 2010 locals:

    Con -9.87%
    UKIP +16.03%
    Lab +2.79%
    Green +7.49%
    LD -15.09%

  13. Con hold 12500 (ukip 2nd)

  14. Conservative Hold. 13,000 maj

  15. A decent result for Labour here- only slightly worse than 2005 which rather says it all.

    Con 53.0 (-0.5)
    Lab 22.2 (+5.6)
    UKIP 14.3 (+11.0)
    LD 6.4 (-15.5)
    Gre 4.1 (+2.8)

    Con majority 13, 564

  16. Yes, you’re right Tory. Very good result for Labour considering the nature of this seat and the overall result nationallly for the party.

    This seat well and it’s as Tory as you can get but I now wonder if it is possible it could be won by Labour in a 1997-style landslide with a very wafer-thin majority e.g. less than 100?

  17. There are still no Labour councillors in the constituency though, and even in the party’s strongest ward (Mottingham & Chislehurst N) the Tories won pretty comfortably last year. Bickley & Chislehurst remain very strongly Tory, and they’re not much weaker in Plaistow & Sundridge either.
    The constituency’s become a slight misnomer since 2010, when the Bromley Common & Keston ward was moved into Beckenham. Thus l have a close friend who lives in Bromley (who has recently rejoined the Labour Party) but votes in Beckenham.

  18. You can see the demographic effects coming through in the results in seats like this, even when the changes are relatively modest compared to elsewhere.

  19. Just look how bad the Lib Dem performance was here – they almost won the byelection a few years back (in fact poor old Ming Campbell thought they had won, I recall…).

  20. I thought this seat had n’t been much affected by demographic change.
    As discussed on the Finchley and GG thread (though not with regard to that seat and obviously excluding the successes against the Libdems), the Tory performance in their Outer London safe seats was consistently rather poor.

  21. Outer London has been undoubtedly affected by demographic change although not as much as inner London.

  22. Talking of demographic change I went to Penge today which actually seemed much improved. Craft beer and gentrified terraces. Bromley TC…which I visited later by contrast seemed to have gone downhill since I last visited. I wonder if this is other people’s experiences?

  23. Have some mates in Crystal Palace, right by the Bromley/Lambeth/Croydon boundary. Craft beer, pizza, gastropubs and £5 milkshakes. Area also feels much safer at night. Still, social problems are very much visible.

  24. Yes by 50.6% to 49.4%.

  25. There were some rumours earlier on about Greenwich being neck-and-neck but it seemed a bit unlikely.

  26. Would love to see ward level results for Bromley. I’m guessing there was an interesting Northwest/Southeast divide in the borough, with the Orpington constituency voting to Leave, this one voting to Remain and the three wards in the Lewisham West and Penge seat voting for Remain as well. The anti-EU vote in Orpington could have been close or even higher than 55%, as I expect that the Cray Valley wards and Biggin Hill broke very heavily in favour of Leave. Bromley and Chislehurst could have easily been around 53% for Remain, though the Mottingham ward would have been strongly for Leave. As regards the Penge wards, I reckon it would have been more like 60-40 in favour of Remain there.

  27. In 2000, not long after he was elected as our GLA member, I got chatting to Bob Neill at our association dinner in Beckenham. It was around the time Hague was swinging heavily to the right with “keep the pound” and “in Europe not run by Europe”, having tried to be a liberal Tory in his first year or two. Neill was a staunch pro-European at that time and pretty disparaging about Hague’s lurch to the right. During our conversation, I asked Bob what he would do if a future Tory government were to take us out of Europe. Without a moment’s hesitation, he replied “I’d resign from the party”.

    Well, we are all still waiting for Bob’s resignation. Small/petty it may seem, but this recollection is one of the most disappointing things for me about Brexit. Even some of those Tory MPs I really liked and respected like Bob have turned out to be lying shysters.

    This is most likely a parting shot from me for a while, the post Brexit shambles on both sides has caused me to almost entirely lose my interest in elections and my faith in politics.

  28. We’ve had our arguments but I’ll miss your posts HH . Fingers crossed it will be a(nother) short lived hiatus

  29. HH – I understand some of what you mean.

    I think the public did need to be given a vote on it though.

    Hope you post again.

  30. (It can’t really be laid at MPs like Bob).

    I think Theresa May will strike the right balance.
    It is a huge task.

  31. I guess it’s possible he’s changed his mind over the past 16 years given everything that has happened, the accession countries etc.

    All the best HH and I hope you do return soon, at least as the next election approaches

  32. Bye H. I hope you return here, but more importantly I hope that you rekindle your interest in politics. Remember, as Ian Hislop said on Question Time a few weeks ago, “Even if you lose a vote, you are entitled to carry on making the argument”.

  33. Well of course I cheered Hislop when I watched that but the problem is it’s not quite the same as arguing against a government you don’t like which has got in and then waiting for an election because brexit (presumably) is irrevocable.

  34. Well this isn’t HH’s first tearful exit, so perhaps not his last either.

  35. It’s quite interesting that in the film “Pride”, a character is nicknamed “Bromley” – a young gay man living in the town, who comes out and horrifies his traditional parents at the height of the miners’ strike/AIDS crisis. The mother somewhat resembles Jane Ellison, who was actually at a screening of the film I went to in 2015, hosted during London Pride (though I believe Ellison’s views are more supportive). It paints an interesting picture of the kind of people I’d expect to find here. The house in Bromley was actually filmed in Watford.

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