Bristol North West

2015 Result:
Conservative: 22767 (43.9%)
Labour: 17823 (34.4%)
Lib Dem: 3214 (6.2%)
Green: 2952 (5.7%)
UKIP: 4889 (9.4%)
TUSC: 160 (0.3%)
MAJORITY: 4944 (9.5%)

Category: Marginal Conservative seat

Geography: South West. Part of the Bristol council area.

Main population centres: Bristol, Avonmouth.

Profile: Geographically the largest of the four Bristol seats, stretching out to the Severn estuary (and technically including a large chunk of it). The seat contains some of the more affluent and Conservative parts of Bristol like Westbury and Stoke Bishop, but these are balanced out by council estates like Southmead and Lockleaze and the heavy industry and manufacturing out at the Avonmouth Docks, making this a classic marginal.

Politics: A Bristol North West seat has existed since 1950, but the boundaries have changed substantially over the years. For many decades it was a classic marginal seat between the Conservatives and Labour, but the seat that existed between 1997 and 2010 took in parts of South Gloucestershire and was safely Labour. Boundary changes in 2010 transformed it into a marginal seat that was won by Charlotte Leslie for the Conservatives.


Current MP
CHARLOTTE LESLIE (Conservative) Born 1978, Liverpool. Educated at Millfield School and Oxford University. Former Policy advisor to David Willetts MP. First elected as MP for Bristol North West in 2010.
Past Results
2010
Con: 19115 (38%)
Lab: 13059 (26%)
LDem: 15841 (31%)
UKIP: 1175 (2%)
Oth: 1146 (2%)
MAJ: 3274 (7%)
2005*
Con: 13230 (28%)
Lab: 22192 (47%)
LDem: 9545 (20%)
UKIP: 1132 (2%)
Oth: 1393 (3%)
MAJ: 8962 (19%)
2001
Con: 13349 (29%)
Lab: 24436 (52%)
LDem: 7387 (16%)
UKIP: 1149 (2%)
Oth: 371 (1%)
MAJ: 11087 (24%)
1997
Con: 16193 (29%)
Lab: 27575 (50%)
LDem: 7263 (13%)
Oth: 2605 (5%)
MAJ: 11382 (21%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
CHARLOTTE LESLIE (Conservative) See above.
DARREN JONES (Labour) Born Lawrence Weston. Educated at Portway School and Plymouth School. Solicitor. Contested Torridge and West Devon 2010.
CLARE CAMPION-SMITH (Liberal Democrat) Retired teacher. Bristol councilor since 2006.
MICHAEL FROST (UKIP) Salesman.
JUSTIN QUINNELL (Green) Freelance photographer and lecturer. Contested Bristol West 2005.
ANNE LEMON (TUSC) Science teacher.
Links
Comments - 122 Responses on “Bristol North West”
  1. yes, for goodness’ sake DO NOT USE THIS SITE for canvassing. Get out there & knock on doors or phone people if you want to do that.

  2. Close Conservative – Labour fight this one. All depends on where the Lib Dem vote goes. Does enough of it swap straight to Labour or does it split between Labour / Green / Lib Dem.

  3. Ashcroft Poll:

    Con 43
    Lab 34
    L/Dem 8
    UKIP 8
    Green 6

    Probably the most predictable of todays Ashcroft poll. The seat reverts to its old status of a Con / Lab contest, with the Conservatives now heavily favoured with both the Westbury and Stoke Bishops wards being in the seat since 2010.

  4. Ashcroft in Bristol NW:

    CON – 43
    LAB – 34
    LD – 8
    UKIP – 8
    GRN – 6
    OTH – 0

    Very good figures for the Conservatives. I had it down as a hold, but it seems like the collapse of the Lib Dem vote has split the opposition. Plus this is one part of Bristol where the Tories have been resilient.

  5. Three seats in and around Bristol seem to be giving the Tories the sort of support that would probably lead to an overall majority if repeated around the country: Bristol NW, Kingswood and NE Somerset.

  6. Conservative Hold. 3,000 maj. Labour 2nd.

  7. LOL I just looked at the profile for the Labour candidate Darren Jones above and where it says ‘Born Lawrence Weston’ I thought it meant that used to be his name- I didn’t realise it was actually a place-name he was born in!

  8. @ Matt Parr-Reid “What affect will boundary changes have on Charlotte Leslie in Bristol North West?”

    As I mentioned on the Berwick thread, there have been major positive ward boundary changes for the Tories here, see https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bristol_North_West_%28UK_Parliament_constituency%29, with two traditionally Labour wards, Avonmouth and Kingsweston, the latter only in this seat since 1983, now having no Labour councillors.

    The Tories have 16 councillors out of 70 on Bristol City Council, with 10 in this constituency across 9 two member wards, two of which are in split wards, one with the Lib Dems, and one with Labour. The Lib Dems hold one ward giving 3 councillors, and Labour holds 2 wards giving 5 councillors.

    The interesting thing in Bristol is that in May, there are all out council elecetions plus Mayor and Police & Crime commisiioner elections allon the same day. Labour needs to clearly needs get into second place to the Tories across all seats in this ward that it doesn’t currently hold if it is to have any chance of chamllenging Charlotte Leslie at the next General Election.

  9. “LOL I just looked at the profile for the Labour candidate Darren Jones above and where it says ‘Born Lawrence Weston’ I thought it meant that used to be his name- I didn’t realise it was actually a place-name he was born in!”

    It’s (or was) a large social housing estate that makes up a significant chunk of the Kingsweston ward I refer to above.

  10. Charlotte Leslie admits she hasn’t yet decided which side to support in the referendum.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12176875/In-or-Out-of-the-EU-Im-proud-that-I-dont-know-yet.html

  11. In a very late decision Bristol North West MP Charlotte Leslie has come out in favour of Brexit:

    http://www.itv.com/news/west/update/2016-06-20/bristol-north-west-mp-chooses-brexit/

  12. Got to see (a decision).

    I’m still ever hopeful that the other 20 MPs will declare by Thursday.

  13. Surely most of the supposedly ‘undecided’ MPs have unofficially declared their positions already?

    Incidentally my own MP is yet to make official his position.

  14. Another LEAVE MP representing a strong REMAIN seat.

  15. Are UKIP running against Leslie?

  16. PLOPWELLIAN TORY – Looks like no UKIP candidate, so one would expect an easy tory hold. I’ve just seen that the Green candidate has agreed to not campaign, though, and I expect the Corbyn surge may be making Ms Leslie a little squemish, what with her being so brexity in a strong remain seat.

  17. Interesting seat. A city seat that hasn’t trended against the Tories as much as others.

  18. I’m not sure this seat would be massively Remain.
    It includes Avonmouth and a number of council estates.
    It is true that Stoke Bishop and some other wards have very weak UKIP votes.
    I think the Tories will perform well here.

  19. Charlotte Leslie was not a particularly strong Brexiteer. She only declared at the last minute and then equivocally http://www.itv.com/news/west/update/2016-06-20/bristol-north-west-mp-chooses-brexit/

    I don’t think she’s in any danger – Bristol Lab have three other seats to defend and they’ll have been the focus (though South will be safe now if polls don’t start to swing back).

  20. I think Jack is correct.
    I doubted Bristol South anyway, although it is the kind of area where Labour could have difficulties.

    Bristol E is a more marginal seat but is a bit more of a “liberal”/Green seat where the Tories could hit a ceiling.

    I suspect the area covering the pre-1997 Bristol North West may have voted Leave in 2016.
    So going beyond the city boundaries into Patchway and Filton.
    And excluding Stoke Bishop – a very Tory area but definitely remain.

    Bristol as a whole is Remain, but it’s sloppy a few posts further up to just pick out a Brexit MP and assume all the seats in the sub-region are the same, to make a silly partisan point.

  21. ”I doubted Bristol South anyway, although it is the kind of area where Labour could have difficulties.

    Bristol E is a more marginal seat but is a bit more of a “liberal”/Green seat where the Tories could hit a ceiling.”

    That’s not really true.

    While it is correct that the southern parts of Bristol South contain a lot of WWC estates like Hartcliffe and Knowle West, the north of the seat (Southville, Totterdown etc.) is very demographically similar to Bristol West which is a very lefty Green area. Essentially the seat is very polarised between north and south and even if Labour suffers a large swing against them in the south of the seat it should be countered by a Green -> Labour swing in the north closer to the centre. There are a few middle class strongly Tory areas like Bedminster Down in the Bishopsworth ward but they’re few and far between making it very difficult for the Tories to win.

    I’m less familiar with Bristol East as I only really know Brislington however I don’t think it really contains many Green/left areas except probably the student area of Fishponds and (I think) the western parts of St George. The rest is a mixture of white lower middle class/upper working class suburbia like Brislington and the rest of St George, a handful of middle class areas (I think parts of Stockwood for example) and grotty council estate like areas. For the Tories to win they’d have to run up the score in places like Brislington.

  22. PeppermintTea
    Good information there – thanks
    You make a good point about the northern end of Bristol South.
    I don’t know Bristol E aswell but I’m pretty sure it includes the NE corner around Stapleton Road and that I think would be a studenty green/Lab area.

    Brislington was electing Lib Dems some times a few years ago (before we moved back towards a more C-Lab national picture) so whereas it is predominantly working class I suspected it had gained student/green characteristics aswell (unless it was one of these random LD successes that pop up when one of the 2 main parties has not put in the work).

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