Brighton, Pavilion

2015 Result:
Conservative: 12448 (22.8%)
Labour: 14904 (27.3%)
Lib Dem: 1525 (2.8%)
Green: 22871 (41.8%)
UKIP: 2724 (5%)
Independent: 116 (0.2%)
Others: 88 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 7967 (14.6%)

Category: Semi-marginal Green seat

Geography: South East, East Sussex. Part of the Brighton and Hove council area.

Main population centres:

Profile: Brighton Pavilion is the western side of the Brighton, a georgian seaside resort that has avoided much the economic.

Politics:


Current MP
CAROLINE LUCAS (Green) Born 1960, Malvern. Educated at Exeter University. Former communications officer and advisor for Oxfam. Oxfordshire county councillor 1993-1997. Contested MEP for South East England 1999-2010. First elected as MP for Brighton, Pavilion in 2010. Principal Speaker for the Green party from 2003-2006, she became the first Leader of the Green Party in 2008.
Past Results
2010
Con: 12275 (24%)
Lab: 14986 (29%)
LDem: 7159 (14%)
GRN: 16238 (31%)
Oth: 1176 (2%)
MAJ: 1252 (2%)
2005*
Con: 10397 (24%)
Lab: 15427 (35%)
LDem: 7171 (16%)
GRN: 9530 (22%)
Oth: 1014 (2%)
MAJ: 5030 (12%)
2001
Con: 10203 (25%)
Lab: 19846 (49%)
LDem: 5348 (13%)
GRN: 3806 (9%)
Oth: 1520 (4%)
MAJ: 9643 (24%)
1997
Con: 13556 (28%)
Lab: 26737 (55%)
LDem: 4644 (9%)
Oth: 2710 (6%)
MAJ: 13181 (27%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
CLARENCE MITCHELL (Conservative) Educated at Friern Barnet County School. Media strategy advisor, former spokesman for the McCann family and former BBC journalist.
PURNA SEN (Labour) Deputy Director of the Institute of Public Affairs.
CHRIS BOWERS (Liberal Democrat) Writer and tennis commentator. Lewes councillor since 2007. Contested Wealden 2010.
NIGEL CARTER (UKIP) Born 1950, Chelmsford. Educated at King Edward VI Grammar, Chelmsford. Contested Brighton Pavilion 2010.
CAROLINE LUCAS (Green) See above.
HOWARD PILOTT (Socialist Party GB)
NICK YEOMANS (Independent)
Links
Comments - 948 Responses on “Brighton, Pavilion”
  1. I would guess the Greens will hold on here. (Estimate).

  2. With the Tories pretty much out of the race here, I would expect many of them to vote Green to keep Labour out. After all if they do that in enough seats, Labour might be deprived of a majority.

  3. Don’t know the area well enough but I think the Tory share will drift down a bit, the LDs falling further.
    I think the Greens will find enough extra votes to off-set any Labour picks up.

  4. Labour selection will take place on 20th July.

  5. “With the Tories pretty much out of the race here, I would expect many of them to vote Green to keep Labour out. After all if they do that in enough seats, Labour might be deprived of a majority.”

    Technically the Greens are way to the left of Labour economically, but I could believe that some Tories may back the Greens in this way on environmental issues and just seeing them as an alternative to Labour.

  6. Don’t know the full results yet, but Labour’s gained it. Turned a Green majority of over 900 into a Labour majority of 38. 12% swing.

  7. Lab 1396 (40%)
    Green 1358 (39%)
    Con 275 (8%)
    UKIP 250 (7%)
    TUSC 172 (5%)
    Lib Dems 56 (2%)

  8. Clarification, because I thought you guys were talking about the by-election these last few posts.

    There was a by-election today in Hanover and Elm Grove, one of the Brighton and Hove Council wards in this constituency. One of the Green councillors resigned, and now Labour have made a gain (their first ever in Brighton?) against the Greens.

  9. The by-election result is bad for the Greens but is very much a verdict on their conduct of the council. They have been preoccupied with their internal battles while the recycling rate has fallen and carbon emissions have gone up. Not much point in voting for the Greens really, However, Caroline Lucas has done a Bill Clinton style triangulation exercise and distanced herself from her own party’s administration on the council. Rather cynical really but may well see her elected with an increased majority.

  10. I can see where you’re coming from – but her retaining the seat must surely be based on a strong active local party, so that she has the “boots on the ground” to combat the efforts of the two main challengers.

    Disenchantment with the Green Party at council level, the loss of Green councillors etc, will not help that.

  11. Keith Taylor in Wikipedia –

    “On the 18th July 2007, it was announced that Lucas had been selected ahead of Taylor by the Brighton Green Party. Lucas won with 55% of the party ballot against Taylor’s 45%. Taylor congratulated Lucas and pledged his support for her campaign.[9] Lucas has since been elected as MP for Brighton Pavilion and, due to the European Parliament rules on dual mandates, Lucas resigned as MEP in order to sit at Westminster. As second on the Green Party list[10] in South East England, Taylor replaced her as MEP.”

    Had Taylor been selected, would the Greens have won or could they have won by a larger margin?

  12. are you the john ruddy who plays for norwich city and england?

  13. Dalek – it’s a good question. Lucas certainly had the higher national profile and is very popular with Green activists, but Taylor had a high profile in Brighton as a long-serving councillor, leader of the Green group and former candidate for the seat.

    As Pavilion was the Green’s number one target, they would have put huge efforts into winning, whoever was the candidate. And Taylor had already massively advanced the vote; there’s every chance he could have obtained the same vote as Lucas.

    I wonder if he might fancy standing in Kemptown or Hove at the next general election?

  14. He is a sitting MEP for SE England. The Greens have already selected for those 2 seats.

  15. Lucas was a sitting MEP for SE England, so that is no impediment, but thanks for the information that the Greens have already selected for those two.

  16. @Matt
    Can you reveal who has been selected and any other selections- what source did you use?

  17. The Green Party’s strongest constituency in Scotland in 2005 was the newly formed Glasgow North that was a mixture of much of what had been the pre-1997 Glasgow Hillhead and Glasgow Maryhill.

    They polled 2135 ( 7.6%) but there vote was less than half in 2010 as the newly established front runners (Lab/Lib Dem) squeezed all the other major parties (including the Tories and the SNP).

  18. @PeterCrerar
    Surely there’s some hope of that squeezing being reversed and maybe even built upon especially with the Lib Dem’s current status, lack of support for UKIP/Tories and the rather stale support for Labour- isn’t this more prominent in Scotland?

  19. Hove selected Christopher Hawtree
    Brighton Kemptown selected Davy Jones

    http://www.brightonhovegreens.org/news/two-experienced-campaigners-stand-for-parliament.html

  20. Thanks Matt!

  21. Does anyone know of a reliable source for all current Green nominations?

  22. I don’t think there is one – I remember before the last election, the candidates were scattered across a number of different sites, which seemed to represent individual Green regions

  23. Ahh ok thanks again 😀

  24. Purna Sen selected for Labour:

    http://www.purnasen.org.uk/

  25. Clarence Mitchell will stand for the Conservatives.

  26. I’m going to go out on a bit of a limb here and predict that Caroline Lucas will increase her majority, and quite considerably. Though the Green council isn’t particularly popular, she seems to have a lot of personal appeal as an MP and her decision to defy the council and campaign against them mightn’t have done her any harm.

    Add to this the stale and pretty feeble support for Labour, the inevitable collapse of the Tories / Lib Dems in the area and the fact that UKIP aren’t really in contention, and I think she’ll be more than safe.

    Prediction:

    Green – 42%
    Labour – 31%
    Conservative – 16%
    Lib Dem – 5%
    UKIP – 5%
    Others – 1%

  27. I’d have to agree with James. I doubt Labour will hold onto the Council, but Lucas has a good chance of keeping this seat. I know tribal Labour types will want to win here, but us floating ‘left’ voters are a bit more open minded!

  28. I am not sure the Lib Dems will go quite as low as 5% or UKIP quite as high as 5%, but I would agree with the rest of the prediction

  29. Labour can’t “hold onto” the council – you presumably meant to say the Greens Alex.

  30. Posters seem to be acting as if Labour have little chance of winning this seat back.

    I believe that is far from true, and that Lucas will have an uphill fight to hold her seat.

  31. Soooooooooo…given all that’s been shown on the news since yesterday, could this publicity for Brighton (albeit indirectly) benefit Purna Sen’s chances in 2015? Added to local frustration with the B&H council, now even I’m starting to wonder if this is going to be a straightforwad hold for the Greens. Apparently she’ll know by next week if any charges are brought against her.

  32. I doubt people who voted Green are likely to be put off by their MP being arrested in these kind of circumstances. It might even help Lucas. It’s not like she is in any kind of risk of going to jail even if she is charged.

    It’s a bit of a tricky one though here, and not really open to a lot of tactical voting. The top 2 are likely to remain Green and Labour (in whatever order) but there’s little advantage for a Tory or Lib Dem voter to back one over the other, given that I would imagine in a hung parliament Lucas would be pretty much guaranteed to vote with Labour.

  33. not sure there’s any complete guarantee. If I were a Labour MP I’d certainly try & persuade her thus, but some Greens don’t have a clear preference between Labour & the Tories, seeing them almost as 2 sides of the same coin. (Our friend WindsofChange is a good example of this.) It would be very complacent for Labour people to think that Caroline Lucas could be relied on to back a Labour government over a Tory one, even though her politics are clearly more in tune with the Labour left than any part of the Tory party.

  34. Not sure how reliable it is but there are a lot of posters on Twitter and Facebook from people who have either never been/haven’t been a party member for a long time among several ex/existing Labour members who havesaid they have joined the Greens. Likes on the Green Party Facebook page have risen about 5% since Caroline being arrested and has many more Twitter followers. What took me by surprise is the number of Labour sympathisers who have claimed they will vote Green instead/have changed party membership/have left Labour. I think particularly in Brighton, and with a character like Ms Lucas at the helm, this might be of benefit to the Greens; especially to their image on the council. In other strong areas of Green/Green-leaning Labour support vote share may actually increase a couple of percent just through this alone.

  35. Thanks for the inside observations, and I can believe some ex and current Labour members find more appeal in this kind of direct action than they would in a more nuanced approach by a mainstream leader – a Leader of the Opposition can’t really go around getting arrested by police. But be careful at tagging on at the end there that ergo this must all mean Green support amongst the general public will increase – whilst the activist type likes people, well, being activist like this, your average Joe and Jane won’t be as won over.

  36. Alright alright I said general support in potentially good Green areas MAY increase by as much as a few percent! 😉

  37. Greens, share of vote at 2010 general election by constituency:

    docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dDgyLXhteG1UZWpNQ1BQOGt0amIweEE#gid=0

  38. The Guardian today reports they have a plan to put 100 “community organisers” into some of the 106 battleground marginals they are targetting (do we have a list on UKPollingReport?). The article says that somebody called jack (the Labour party are not releasing his surname) is helping the candidate in Kempton, that an organiser is to be appointed in Hove and that the Regional Organiser, Rae Martin-Smith, will be “building a network” to try to unseat Caoline Lucas in Brighton Kemptown.A similar organiser is to be appointed in Hove.

    Does this initiative differ from past arragments to put organisers into marginal seats and what effect is this likely to have on the results?

    I see that Ed Miliband has been advised in this intiative by a New Yorkler called Andy Graf. Labour are ver definitiely not alone amogst the major parties in bringing in foregners to try to influence our elections, but I must say it makes me queasy. Do UKIP have a policy against this?

    I have a relative who is a Labour Party activist who made a long journey to Brighton to a fringe meeting at the Labour Party conference but telss me that it would have cost hm £48 for a day visitor’s ticket. His constituency decided not to send a delegate on cost grounds. This is just one example of how all three long-standing major parties seem to other interests before those of their party members, supporters and “ordinary voters”. From a psephological viewpoint, this appears to be costing them both in terms of low turnout and the rise of parties such as UKIP.

  39. The papers today report that Caroline Lucas is to be charged for her protest about “fracking”. It is not clear to me whether this will harm or help her in terms of electoral support.

  40. I saw the story too – on the face of it it’s difficult to see how this could harm her in the eyes of those who already voted for her given that she was protesting on an environmental issue with which her core vote would have sympathy, plus she hasn’t done anything dishonest or malicious.

  41. Probably wont harm her with the 31% who voted for her, but I still expect Labour to win this back, still more so after Miliband’s left turn this week.

  42. I think the order of trials at the moment are: Nigel Evans MP, Eric Joyce MP, Caroline Lucas MP.

  43. Lucas 17,919
    Labour 17,600
    Helmer (UKIP) 12,925
    Taylor (Con) 10,115
    McGuinness (LD) 101

  44. lol – I do think that the Conservatives might at least manage 3rd place here……..
    There was an LD councillor within the constituency not many years ago, in Regency ward which was split with Labour. But it always seemed rather counter-intuitive – it was clear that Labour v Green was the natural battle in the ward by this time, as indeed it now is. UKIP could poll usefully in the Lewes District wards in the Kemptown constituency, but of course (as Joe knows perfectly well really) not here.

  45. These Bitchton, McGuinness (LD and SF), and Roger Helmer would be very busy in my fantasy home from the pub elections.

  46. Graeme Archer blogging in the Telegraph that the Conservatives should return to having their conferences in Brighton and Blackpool rather than in Manchester and Birmingham:

    http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/graemearcher/100238359/for-the-love-of-god-bring-the-tory-conference-back-to-brighton/

    Any thoughts from JJB?

    Personally I think that the change in conference location is yet another example in the metropolitan mentality of the Cameroons.

  47. It is because the corporate sponsors don’t want to be trudging up to Blackpool and staying in a damp B&B for 3 nights.

    But for the ordinary membership it is a much better atmosphere, and cheaper, by the seaside.

  48. If she’s found guilty, what’s the maximum penalties she could potentially face?

    Still think she’ll hold in 2015 if she stands again, though Purna Sen seems like a very strong candidate and someone who could do well with Pavilion voters. The Tories have shot themselves in the foot with Clarence Mitchell as candidate.

  49. HH

    With a consequence that Conservative membership falls.

    Though I suspect the Cameroons would prefer to lead a Conservative party without any members.

    Getting their money from the corporate sector or the government and their ideas from ‘think tanks’ and from abroad.

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