Brighton, Pavilion

2015 Result:
Conservative: 12448 (22.8%)
Labour: 14904 (27.3%)
Lib Dem: 1525 (2.8%)
Green: 22871 (41.8%)
UKIP: 2724 (5%)
Independent: 116 (0.2%)
Others: 88 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 7967 (14.6%)

Category: Semi-marginal Green seat

Geography: South East, East Sussex. Part of the Brighton and Hove council area.

Main population centres:

Profile: Brighton Pavilion is the western side of the Brighton, a georgian seaside resort that has avoided much the economic.

Politics:


Current MP
CAROLINE LUCAS (Green) Born 1960, Malvern. Educated at Exeter University. Former communications officer and advisor for Oxfam. Oxfordshire county councillor 1993-1997. Contested MEP for South East England 1999-2010. First elected as MP for Brighton, Pavilion in 2010. Principal Speaker for the Green party from 2003-2006, she became the first Leader of the Green Party in 2008.
Past Results
2010
Con: 12275 (24%)
Lab: 14986 (29%)
LDem: 7159 (14%)
GRN: 16238 (31%)
Oth: 1176 (2%)
MAJ: 1252 (2%)
2005*
Con: 10397 (24%)
Lab: 15427 (35%)
LDem: 7171 (16%)
GRN: 9530 (22%)
Oth: 1014 (2%)
MAJ: 5030 (12%)
2001
Con: 10203 (25%)
Lab: 19846 (49%)
LDem: 5348 (13%)
GRN: 3806 (9%)
Oth: 1520 (4%)
MAJ: 9643 (24%)
1997
Con: 13556 (28%)
Lab: 26737 (55%)
LDem: 4644 (9%)
Oth: 2710 (6%)
MAJ: 13181 (27%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
CLARENCE MITCHELL (Conservative) Educated at Friern Barnet County School. Media strategy advisor, former spokesman for the McCann family and former BBC journalist.
PURNA SEN (Labour) Deputy Director of the Institute of Public Affairs.
CHRIS BOWERS (Liberal Democrat) Writer and tennis commentator. Lewes councillor since 2007. Contested Wealden 2010.
NIGEL CARTER (UKIP) Born 1950, Chelmsford. Educated at King Edward VI Grammar, Chelmsford. Contested Brighton Pavilion 2010.
CAROLINE LUCAS (Green) See above.
HOWARD PILOTT (Socialist Party GB)
NICK YEOMANS (Independent)
Links
Comments - 948 Responses on “Brighton, Pavilion”
  1. Corbyn led Labour making an offer on PR would come pretty much out of the blue. The man has no record of supporting electoral reform. He voted against an amendment for the AV referendum to instead be a vote on introducing STV, and even voted for the imposition of a 40 per cent turnout threshold for the outcome of that vote to be binding.

  2. The thing about offering PR at a general election is that, almost by definition, it is a policy that appeals least to those very people – swing voters in marginal seats – whose votes you need to win an election, because their votes already count (and disproportionately so).

  3. A centre left rainbow coalition would push for PR, the lib dems vote may continue to fall but under PR they would still have seats.

    The old left of the labour party have never cared for electoral reform. There is a damning speech Dennis Skinner gives where he says that Paddy ‘Backdown’ has failed to convince people of electoral reform and demonstrates the further irrelevance of the lib dems

  4. While Corbyn doesn’t have a history of supporting PR his recent statements have shown he’s cautiously in favour. This is probably a combination of electoral practicality (the Tories are much bigger beneficiaries of FPTP than Labour are these days) and practicality re his popularity within his own party. Internal polling shows Lab members and Corbynista’s especially are very pro electoral reforms thus just like the EU Corbyn will change (or rather has changed) his tune.

  5. Polltroll
    “The thing about offering PR at a general election is that, almost by definition, it is a policy that appeals least to those very people – swing voters in marginal seats – whose votes you need to win an election, because their votes already count (and disproportionately so)”

    I highly doubt it makes a difference either way, disregarding the polling which shows the public are in favour of PR but even if we assume they weren’t the overwhelming majority of people don’t know they’re in a marginal seat or not. Seriously I think you could fit the number of people in one (small) room who in a GE vote for a party partially or wholly because they support an electoral system that enfranchises them more and that applies to both supporters of FPTP in swing seats and supporters of PR in safe seats.

  6. “…the polling which shows the public are in favour of PR…”

    There does indeed exist polling showing public support for PR, but as this article explains, results are highly dependent on the wording of the question:

    http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/politicsandpolicy/no-clear-evidence-of-public-support-for-pr/

    I support PR, but on the basis of the available evidence I don’t think it’s possible to be certain that it would pass in a referendum.

  7. That is true for almost every poll. On Trident people’s support varies from 20% to 5% lead depending on the question. Some pollsters change the party order every poll.

  8. If I remember rightly we had a vote on PR – alright AV – in 2011, and despite initial support amongst the public once the newspapers had their say it was overwhelmingly rejected by 68/32

    What makes you think it would be different this time round?

  9. Meanwhile, another REMAIN fantasy implodes

    NI Border poll voting intention:

    Stay in UK: 63% Join Republic: 22%

    https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/774237975223885824

  10. Tim: I don’t think the majority of people ever understood what AV was, or if they did they felt it was barely different from FPTP. And so the referendum became a vote of confidence in Nick Clegg – and given that his party was and still is rumbling along in single figures, to achieve 32% was a fair achievement.

  11. The “people would have supported AV/PR if only they understood what it was” argument is patronising and rubbish. People understood exactly what they were voting on and rejected it.

    (like Kieran, I write as a supporter of PR who voted Yes to AV)

  12. HH
    “People understood exactly what they were voting on and rejected it”

    I have to disagree totally, the AV referendum was the first bit of political activity I got actively involved in, campaigning for a Yes vote. But in hindsight the amount of misinformation during that debate made the EU ref look like a pinnacle of educated, intellectual discourse.

    I never came across a single person who properly understood AV and the No sides literature was out and out stupid, making out that the cost of the referendum istelf was somehow going to be the recurring cost of adopting AV, that introducing AV was going to be a massive waste of time detracting from actual issues (even though all the debates in parliament and such had already taken place) to shameless promotion of Clegg support as well, they actively pushed the notion AV was a referendum on Clegg.

  13. AV is a crap system. Worse that FPTP. It didn’t need Tim’s mythical big beasts of the press to weigh in for the referendum campaign to highlight its inherent crapness, and the fact that it is the first choice system of virtually nobody.

    I viewed AV as a step away from decent electoral reform. I never understood why a Yes victory would have made the introduction of a superior system any more likely. That’s why I voted No.

  14. The referendum was sort of based on Nick Clegg as the No to Avers made him central to their overall campaign, in one of the most cynical and negative campaigns ever seen in British politics, but AV is a pretty easy system to understand – ranking candidates in order of preference as opposed to voting for one

    As somebody who opposed it purely on its own merits – had I seen as as a referendum on Mr Clegg I would have supported it

    Whilst the public probably do favour electoral reform, it’s when you get into the specific system that it starts unravelling

    And politicians are purely cynical on the issue.

    Having been out of office for 18 years, Labour concluded that PR might be a way of ridding the country of a Tory government, until they won their biggest majority ever via FPTP in 97 and Blair never mentioned it again

  15. AV is a terrible system, only marginally better than FPTP.

    Couple that with the fact it was a vote intended to strengthen the support of Nick Clegg and his party – I’m amazed 32% voted in favour of it.

    I speak as someone who voted against AV but is fully supportive of PR.

  16. I suspect it was to try and win over lib dems.

  17. “Having been out of office for 18 years, Labour concluded that PR might be a way of ridding the country of a Tory government, until they won their biggest majority ever via FPTP in 97 and Blair never mentioned it again”

    That’s not quite correct, & pretty unfair to Blair. After winning in 97 he established a working group on PR under the leadership of Roy Jenkins, which reported back with a recommendation the following year to adopt the AMS system as in place in Scotland & Wales.

    It was widely believed that Deputy PM Prescott, with heavy union backing and a lot of support in the PLP, insisted on the recommendations being ignored, on threat of resignation. The most supportive thing he allowed Blair to say about it was that he was “not persuaded that there was a case for change” (ie leaving the door open that he might be persuaded in the future).

  18. I think the Jenkins Report insisted upon AV+

  19. “I think the Jenkins Report insisted upon AV+”

    Yes, pardon me, it was AV in the constituencies with a Scottish/Welsh style top up list

  20. I’m not entirely convinced that UKIP can continue to justify their relevance in post brexit Britain. There has been talk of a new party that Leave.eu are establishing, group leaders have been contacted regarding whether they would join such a party

  21. @Matt well it seems unlikely the government will deliver ‘Brexit max;’ so it seems that they will obviously have a trunp card to play with that. Also Labour’s infrastructure in many of their traditional WWC strongholds has never been weaker and the leadership of the Labour party never a more terrible fit for those kind of seats. It’s really only a couple of steps away from these ex-industrisl places being swept up in a populist tide…

  22. UKIP have some issues – no Farage, and a lack of funding with their EU money disappearing and Aaron Banks losing interest. But they don’t seem to be suffering electorally – see their recent local by-election in Maidstone. I don’t think there’s ever been a situation in British politics where a party has had such a large vote share and yet there are serious discussions going on about winding up the operation completely. Would the 4 million voters cross over as one to UKIP 2.0? Or would they go back to the parties they used to vote for before UKIP’s rise?

  23. They can only be UKIP-lite so much though before they risk alienating the Lib Dem switchers they’ve acquired over time.

  24. “They can only be UKIP-lite so much though before they risk alienating the Lib Dem switchers they’ve acquired over time”

    Most of who will be fairly peeved off with the Tories at the moment thanks to Brexit. Can the Cons risk alienating them further?

  25. Which is the main reason I don’t think there will be an early GE. I can see the Lib Dems pitching themselves as the anti-Brexit party and appealing to as much of the 48% as they can. With Labour is disarray I could easily see them depriving the Tories of their majority in an early vote.

  26. I think your getting a bit excited again Maxim, I personally don’t think Corbyn will even last till 2020 let alone post 2020 if he loses.

  27. Well your entitled to your opinion but as you well know I’m deep within the “belly of the beast” if you will and know many MANY Corbyn supporters so I can sense the mood music so I’d just add the following.

    1) if Corbyn loses in 2020 (especially if its the bad defeat you and most others anticipate) there is no way Corbyn can survive. contrary to popular lore the vast majority of Corbyn supporters actually do want to win elections and are not supporting JC out of blind adoration, if Corbyn goes down badly some will undoubtedly apportion blame everywhere but on Corbyn himself but most will either drift away disappointed, accept a more moderate figure or attribute it primarily to Corbyn’s own failings. Corbyn would have no chance of being re-elected after defeat assuming he even wanted to be re-elected which he most certainly doesn’t, he didn’t even want to be leader in the first place, supposedly when he first got on the ballot last year he told McDonnell “now just make sure I don’t win”

    2) This assumes JC even lasts till 2020. As I’ve said before my own personal desire (and one shared by a pretty clear majority of Corbyn supporters from what I can tell) is that Corbyn is to democratise the party, drag it to the left then step aside for a younger more politically savvy Corbynista or soft leftie. What’s more I thought this was just the wish of some of Corbyn’s supporters but there is increasing noise coming from Corbyn’s top team that this is the plan for them as well. Why else are they so relaxed about Corbyn’s poor polling? Why else are they really pushing the likes of Rayner, Smith, Lewis, Long-Bailey and getting them into the public perception? Why else would they be so desperate to reform leadership nomination rules and such? Corbyn is already leader and as we have seen the incumbent doesn’t need a nomination, doesn’t make sense to reform if they expect him to be around for decades. Its all in anticipation for another leadership election one in which Corbyn wont be standing.

    So basically I’d put chances of Corbyn leading Lab into 2020 at sub 50%. chances of Corbyn leading Lab post 2020 if we lose at somewhere between 0 and 5%

  28. As has already been discussed the whole furore over mass de-selections and parachuting of Corby friendly candidates is being overplayed. As of yet there hasn’t been a single serious attempt to de-select an MP and in every by-election so far not a single Corbynista has been selected. I think the PLP post 2020 will be broadly further to the left but its not going to be anything close to a “red wash” Probably at most boots the Corbynista faction to about 50 or 60 MP’s

  29. That’s all you really need isn’t it. That way the looney left can always get on the leadership ballot.

  30. Maxim
    I thought everybody thought Balls was useless, especially Tories? Since when has he became Labs saviour?

    In all seriousness though Maxim on this issue yourself and most other Tories or Tory sympathisers don’t quite seem to understand what’s happening in and to Labour. From your perspective as a general supporter of the “right of centre” its probably very easy and desirable to attribute Labours woes to being too left wing and Tory relative successes down to adopting popular right of centre policies but an intelligent individual like yourself really knows its vastly more complicated than that.

    Labour has to deal with winning back and shoring up its WWC support which is broadly left of centre economically but very right wing socially and its very difficult to appease the latter right wing tendencies without driving away our core support. As much as Corbyn might not be the answer what could David Milliband possibly bring to the table? The one thing many Tories (and labour moderates) like to pretend but which is frankly ridiculous is that WWC voters in places like Doncaster are drifting away from Labour cos they desire a more liberalised free market economy, actually talk to them though and its apparent they want quite the opposite.

  31. Rivers I think it is possible (though not easy) to win an election in Britain on a fairly left wing economic platform. Similarly it is just about conceivable that you could win an election on anti-military, pro-immigration etc. policies. (though this would be significantly harder than the former). However it is near impossible to win an election on both at once which is why Labour at present is in deep trouble.

  32. I think that’s true not just of labour but in general I did a report on reducing the voting age and included a great article about the tribal voting habits of the 50s and the decline in this behaviour.

  33. Pepps
    I agree with you 100% for a change XD

    Maxim
    That may be correct but the very important distinction is WHY these people are drifting to UKIP or the Tories (this is very important for your party as well) and its not because these people believe in low taxes, lax regulations, union bashing, mass privatisations and shrinking the state cos believe me they don’t rather its about immigration, patriotism, political correctness and harbouring back to “the good old days. If you try to woo these people with a healthy dose of corporate tax cuts you might be disappointed at the results…

  34. No offence, but the idea that David Miliband or Ed Balls would be capable of ‘saving’ Labour is one of the most laughable suggestions I’ve seen for a while.

  35. Somewhat amusingly this seat becomes notionally Tory after it loses Regency and St Peters and North Laine and gains Hove Park and Woodingdean. I assume it’s renamed Brighton North.

  36. Prepare to feel the full force of the Green machine, they’re sharpening their celery sticks already and preparing to declare war on the BC

  37. I don’t understand why the third seat has been called Brighton East & Newhaven – given it stretches out as far as Seaford and that Seaford is a larger town than Newhaven

    How the Commission managed to create a seat that contains both Hove Park & Moulsecomb & Bevendean is a geographical and political monstrosity

    ‘That may be correct but the very important distinction is WHY these people are drifting to UKIP or the Tories’

    I’d say Jeremy Corbyn and before him Ed Miliband – they are simply not the type of leader capable of appealing to the WWC voters that are leaving Labour in droves

    You’re right that often such people are as anti the corporate and financial elite as Corbyn himself, but get put off by his (and Miliband’s) stance on things like his support for free immigration and his lack of his patriotism

    But to think these votes are permanently lost doesn’t hold either.

    I’m sure once Labour get a streetwise leader with a bit more human charisma and the current government comes unstuck (as it surely will with first-class jokers like Liam Fox and Boris Johnson in it) such votes will be back in play – and of coure none of us know what will happen to UKIP in thre long term now Farage has gone

  38. “You’re right that often such people are as anti the corporate and financial elite as Corbyn himself, but get put off by his (and Miliband’s) stance on things like his support for free immigration and his lack of his patriotism”

    A large proportion of Labour MPs are either rich, privately educated, Oxbridge educated, come from a feather-bedded public sector career, worked as a SPAD and haven’t had a proper job (many tick multiple boxes of course)

    So they come across to voters as just as “elitist” and removed from day to day working class life as the Tories….more so in many cases as working class voters these days probably relate more to the culture of private business than diversity officers and ex-polytechnic lecturers.

  39. ‘So they come across to voters as just as “elitist” and removed from day to day working class life as the Tories….more so in many cases as working class voters these days probably relate more to the culture of private business than diversity officers and ex-polytechnic lecturers.’

    Definitely more so I’d say – and not to mention that Tory MPs – and let’s be honest, most of whom are posh – are more likely to share WWC views on things like immigration, cars. making money than their Labour counterparts

    It’s a double edged sword because since Blair Labour have seemed incapable of appealing both to the young liberal middle classes and their traditional WWC base – both of whom want different, if not contradictory things

  40. Maxim
    No the new Hove would be fairly reliable Lab.

  41. Also I suggested this last night and I’m going to suggest it again by spamming it everywhere, maybe we should keep discussions on boundaries confined to the relevant European region thread? Thus avoiding spamming every seat thread?

  42. On the plane to Chicago yesterday I found myself sitting next to a balding bloke in his early 40s by the name of….Tim Jones! Got me wondering.

  43. I can see Hove Park being returned to Hove and St Peters & The Lanes being returned to Brighton North. As this includes the Royal Pavilion then Brighton North could continue as Brighton Pavilion.

  44. On Question Time on Thursday, Caroline Lucas and Norman Lamb appeared to agree on a lot of issues. Does anyone reckon that an electoral pact could be likely between the two parties? Both parties support a second referendum and Proportional Representation. They also both oppose grammar schools, a third runway at Heathrow and an elected House of Lords. Perhaps a pact could work and would be equally beneficial to both parties, compared to the suggested Labour and Green one?

  45. Co-ordination in Tory-held seats makes a good deal more sense than in Labour-held ones. Greens standing aside in Cambridge would certainly not be to the Lib Dems’ benefit. Lib Dems not contesting Bristol West… I guess that one could go either way.

    The Lib Dems and the Greens really don’t have that much overlap (I say that as someone who has voted Lib Dem in the past and would never back a party as radically left-wing as the Greens). I watched the Question Time you refer to, and I reckon that Lamb and Lucas were only made to look like they agreed with each other in contrast to the tubthumping right-wingers Jacob Rees-Mogg & Julia Hartley-Brewer on the other side of the panel.

  46. I think it really depends how much of an issue Brexit is in the next election. Since both parties strongly support remaining in the EU, I’m sure both parties could put their economic differences aside for the sake for our membership of the EU. Of course this is all hypothetical at the moment. Brexit could be a great success, which would make such pact pointless. However if the negotiations are unsuccessfully and Brexit causing an economic downturn, it could work.

    Would definitely help the Liberal Democrats in the likes of Twickenham and Kingston. I agree that Norfolk North might be at risk, especially with their strategy to win over the 48%. However they might have to sacrifice their old West Country rural heartlands, Norfolk etc to win back their Remain voting constituencies.

  47. Wasn’t it Karl Marx who said something about history repeating itself as farce:

    ‘ A group fronted by Paul Weller will take part in a concert in support of the Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, the Momentum campaign group has announced.

    The Brighton gig will be the first of a national series of “concerts for Corbyn”, with artists on the lineup including indie veterans the Farm, psychedelic group Temples and singer-songwriter Kathryn Williams.

    Other acts on the bill for the 16 December event include Stealing Sheep, Jim Jones and the Righteous Mind, Edgar “Summertyme” Jones and Ghetto Priest.

    Weller, the former Jam and Style Council frontman, has experience of political concerts after playing a leading role in the Red Wedge campaign, which supported Neil Kinnock’s Labour in the 1980s.

    He will be joined by former Soft Machine star Robert Wyatt as well as Danny Thompson, Steve Pilgrim and Ben Gordelier.

    The £25 show at Brighton Dome is intended as the first of a series called People Powered: Concerts for Corbyn, organised by the promoter Rocksalts in association with Momentum. ‘

    https://www.theguardian.com/music/2016/oct/10/paul-weller-concert-for-corbyn-brighton-people-powered-gigs-momentum

  48. I’m sure this will be a huge turning point for Labour, enthusing floating voters in their droves

  49. I believe so, the Liberal demise in the early 19 hundreds is very similar pattern the Labour Party is experiencing if for different reasons.

  50. The 2015 general election in Glasgow for Labour was similar to 1922 when safe Liberal constituencies became safe Labour constituencies in a single night sweeping aside decades of Liberal tradition.

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