Brighton, Pavilion

2015 Result:
Conservative: 12448 (22.8%)
Labour: 14904 (27.3%)
Lib Dem: 1525 (2.8%)
Green: 22871 (41.8%)
UKIP: 2724 (5%)
Independent: 116 (0.2%)
Others: 88 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 7967 (14.6%)

Category: Semi-marginal Green seat

Geography: South East, East Sussex. Part of the Brighton and Hove council area.

Main population centres:

Profile: Brighton Pavilion is the western side of the Brighton, a georgian seaside resort that has avoided much the economic.

Politics:


Current MP
CAROLINE LUCAS (Green) Born 1960, Malvern. Educated at Exeter University. Former communications officer and advisor for Oxfam. Oxfordshire county councillor 1993-1997. Contested MEP for South East England 1999-2010. First elected as MP for Brighton, Pavilion in 2010. Principal Speaker for the Green party from 2003-2006, she became the first Leader of the Green Party in 2008.
Past Results
2010
Con: 12275 (24%)
Lab: 14986 (29%)
LDem: 7159 (14%)
GRN: 16238 (31%)
Oth: 1176 (2%)
MAJ: 1252 (2%)
2005*
Con: 10397 (24%)
Lab: 15427 (35%)
LDem: 7171 (16%)
GRN: 9530 (22%)
Oth: 1014 (2%)
MAJ: 5030 (12%)
2001
Con: 10203 (25%)
Lab: 19846 (49%)
LDem: 5348 (13%)
GRN: 3806 (9%)
Oth: 1520 (4%)
MAJ: 9643 (24%)
1997
Con: 13556 (28%)
Lab: 26737 (55%)
LDem: 4644 (9%)
Oth: 2710 (6%)
MAJ: 13181 (27%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
CLARENCE MITCHELL (Conservative) Educated at Friern Barnet County School. Media strategy advisor, former spokesman for the McCann family and former BBC journalist.
PURNA SEN (Labour) Deputy Director of the Institute of Public Affairs.
CHRIS BOWERS (Liberal Democrat) Writer and tennis commentator. Lewes councillor since 2007. Contested Wealden 2010.
NIGEL CARTER (UKIP) Born 1950, Chelmsford. Educated at King Edward VI Grammar, Chelmsford. Contested Brighton Pavilion 2010.
CAROLINE LUCAS (Green) See above.
HOWARD PILOTT (Socialist Party GB)
NICK YEOMANS (Independent)
Links
Comments - 936 Responses on “Brighton, Pavilion”
  1. Will the Lib Dems standing aside here make any difference? Polling 2.8% in 2015? I guess though they could have polled more this time…

  2. I suppose the Lib Dems will be hoping they can get something in return.

    Now, if the Lib Dems were to stand down in Bristol Weet, I imagine they’d expect the greens to stand down from every one of the Lib/Con marginals in return!

  3. I doubt even Lucas would ask for that!

    When asked by Andrew Neil she seemed to indicate it would just be one or two seats in each Region and specifically mentioned if eg Labour stood down in Isle of Wight (a Green target apparently), the Greens would for Labour in eg a Southampton or Plymouth seat.

    But I can only think of 5 or 6 Green targets at most so it shouldn’t be difficult for the LDs to stand down in that many. I can’t see Labour doing it anywhere though.

  4. I have to say that as somebody who would have voted Lib Dem is this seat i find this decision absolutely contemptible, and as someone who believes in democratic participation, I will have no other option than to spoil my ballot

    Even when I take my personal dislike out of it, there’s much evidence to suggest that such pacts cost those involved votes, as electorate’s don’t like them

  5. Squabble over whether Labour should stand aside in this seat:

    https://order-order.com/2017/05/01/corbyn-slaps-down-clive-mason-and-owen/

    For my money, the leader’s office is right on this one. You at least put up a candidate in the seat even if you don’t put much effort in (understandable, given the marginality of the other Brighton & Hove seats local resources are already going to be stretched). It’s not like there’s any danger of splitting the vote and letting the Tories through the middle as they appear to have a ceiling of about 25% here. And standing down supports the “coalition of chaos” narrative.

  6. Oh, btw on the Lib Dem thing, it seems them standing aside here is the quid pro quo for the Greens doing likewise in Richmond Park.

  7. I understand where polltroll is coming from but at the moment the only way the Tories ain’t winning this election is if Lab stand aside in 50 Lib/Tory marginals and vice versa.

  8. I don’t really know much about this game, but how likely is a tacit agreement between Lab and Lib HQs to run limited campaigns in marginals? That would seem to improve the chances of limiting the Tory majority without irritating voters like Tim Jones.

  9. ”Lab stand aside in 50 Lib/Tory marginals and vice versa.”

    The Lib Dems standing aside in Lab-Con marginal would not help Labour much and in some places would actually help the Tories. A large chunk of the Lib Dem vote would prefer the Tories to Labour/Greens which is why a ‘progressive alliance’ is so stupid.

  10. Caroline Lucas has a strong personal vote and Labour’s candidate is very young and no special effort is being conducted here.

  11. Poll done on this constituency had Caroline Lucas on 47%. Caroline Lucas has a personal vote that transcends her party; she increased her majority in 2015 despite the Greens losing half their seats on Brighton & Hove Council.

  12. Electoral calculus suggests a Tory gain here.

  13. Another reason not to waste your time logging onto Electoral Calculus…

  14. It was an ICM poll you can find the tables here https://www.brightonhovegreens.org/assets/BHGP%20CALENDAR/Brighton%20Pavilion%20Poll%20April-May%202017_Tables_extract.pdf

    Probably a bit unfair on Electoral Calculus the articles are interesting and they do a great break down. However, their predictions are based on UNS of the turnout adjustment figures from each ward based on the local election results. Useful for maybe Copeland but in Pavillion there is no point.

  15. I think it much more likely the Greens will gain Bristol West than it is Lab will gain this.

  16. Yep….Green majority will be five figures here and the Tories will come second.

  17. That ICM poll for the Greens looks very sketchy, the sample is skewed very old and has gone through massive weighting. Suggests to me that the methodology wasn’t conducive to a representative sample (perhaps landlines only?)

    That said, the poll would have to be VERY wrong for Lucas to not hold here. I think she’ll probably increase her majority.

  18. I don’t think Rivers was suggesting Greens will win Bristol West but that the likelihood of victory for the Greens in Bristol West was higher than Labour’s chances in Pavillion which I think is true. I think neither seat will change hands but Lucas has a very large personal vote, her problem will be the new boundaries at the next election but anything like 47% at this election should give her a notional majority at the next election.

  19. Yep….if Lucas wins Brighton Pavilion with a majority of up to 10000 she will have a notional majority in a new Brighton North.

  20. I assume that the Greens are now ahead on the new Brighton North boundaries?

  21. ‘An amusing piece about this Labour/UKIP woman:’

    Could it not just be that like many others from Melanie Phillips to Peter Hitchens, from Gary Bushell to Leo McKinstry, she’s one of the few who has moved from the hard Left to the hard Right

    It’s not exactly a new phenomenon – and one which I had – perhaps wrongly – assumed you had taken many, many years ago!

  22. @Dalek

    Not according to Anthony Wells’ calculations. His notional result is:

    Labour – 22737
    Greens – 19353
    Conservatives – 17197
    UKIP – 494
    Lib Dems – 465
    Others – 358

  23. In a lifetime that can happen yes. But it seems she was espousing Labour during UKIP’s peak years (2008-2014) and now joins UKIP at their lowest point. There’s something odd if nothing else about that.

    As you know though I’m suspicious of defectors per se, but especially as the evidence is that over 80% of MPs and Cllrs move after a failed selection and/or move to a Party when the tide turns that way. Just look at Mensch, Chisti, or the former Environment Sec who literally defected on the offer of a seat months after standing for the opposing Party. I’m sure you’ll be aware of many such Cllrs too.

    Ha I’ve never been hard Left. I espouse right wing views on immigration and law and order and some which are regarded as left wing on welfare/DWP matters. In fact I think such DUP views are unrepresented in England apart from Frank Field and a few others.

    Incidentally I don’t usually mention my career on here but I have jus been offered a job with a national, so no doubt that’ll shock Tristan and Alex F. But even if I accept I’m certainly 30 years away (if ever) from being a Melanie P or Janet Daly on the paper review!

  24. National doesn’t mean ‘quality’, so don’t flatter yourself mate. I’m sure you’ll enjoy your time at the Daily Star.

  25. At least you’re consistent in your skewed view of meritocracy, Tristan.

    Middle class lefties good; working class bad if they’re to the right of me.

  26. Mensch and Truss sit very comfortably within the Tory Party – I wouldn’t describe either as even Tories of the Left

    They are way to the Right of colleagues like Clarke, Allen, Woolaston, Soubry or even Morgan – genuine One Nation Tories

  27. I know Heidi Allen from her days on SADC I wouldn’t describe her as a One Nation Tory

  28. Really?

    I would have thought Heidi Allen is a good shout fot the most Left-wing MP on the Tory benches

    I’d say she’s the embodiement of One-Nation Tory

  29. Truss is on the right of the party with regards to the economy. She doesn’t appear to be screamingly right wing with regards to social policy but who really knows with her. She’ll say or do anything to keep her career advancing in the right direction.

  30. I agree with both Walt and Tristam

    I’d say Heidi Allen probably is the most Left-Wing Tory in the House of Commons. Even other Left-leaning Tories like Clarke are considerably drier than she is economically, and she’s pretty unpopular in many Tory circles – which suggests she must be doing something right! (Joke by the way).

    To say she’s not a One-Nation Tory seems like a joke, although if Matt’s met her he must have a better idea than me. I’d like him to expand on his comments

    When she was a Lib Dem, Liz Truss was known for her staunchly Republican views, but she does indeed seem the sort of careerist MP that tend to give politicians a bad name

  31. Republican? That’s very interesting, I didn’t know that. To be fair, Truss’ background is a lot more interesting than one might expect (professor parents who moved a lot for work, and were very left wing).

  32. Am I the only one who thinks that the way Vote Leave have left a gullible 22 year old to carry the can, and a ruinous £20,000 fine, for their breaching of electoral law is absolutely disgraceful?

    (Posting this here as Darren Grimes is ubiquitously, with a hint of homophobia, described as “a fashion student from Brighton”).

    Grimes is from a working class Durham family and not in a position to pay the fine himself.

    The 18m Leave voters must be a pretty tight lot…the crowdfunding appeal to pay his fine had only raised a paltry £2500 last time I looked.

    How many millions have Remain campaigners crowdfunded for various doomed legal challenges?

    If it didn’t stick so much in my craw to give any money to a Leave cause, I’d give him a tenner myself.

  33. ‘Grimes is from a working class Durham family and not in a position to pay the fine himself.’

    If you dance with the Devil – you should pay the price and Grimes has at least learnt himself a lesson

    I have very little no sympathy for any Leave campaigner (except those who are personal friends) and part of me hopes the judge throws the book at him

    This episode again just underlines the mean minded mentality of those pushing for a hard Brexit

  34. “If you dance with the Devil – you should pay the price and Grimes has at least learnt himself a lesson”

    It indeed does serve as a lesson for what can happen when gullible young idealists are seduced into high level political campaigning. The campaign elite massage their ego as the “voice of the young” until it goes pear shaped then it was nothing to do with me guv. This does seem to be a particular problem on the right, which the Mark Clarke – Elliot Johnson scandal is also a good example of.

    “This episode again just underlines the mean minded mentality of those pushing for a hard Brexit”

    The crowdfunding campaign had raised a paltry £2500 earlier this afternoon, from 30 donors. The fine would be small change for Jacob Rees Mogg or Boris Johnson. The reason they and others won’t contribute is that they do not want to be seen to condone illegality – the hypocrisy being that the illegality was undoubtedly their idea in the first place.

  35. The reason they and others won’t contribute is that they do not want to be seen to condone illegality – the hypocrisy being that the illegality was undoubtedly their idea in the first place’

    Whilst you’re right I think even that gives them too much credit

    IMO neither will contributed because they don’t care about Grimes and all their other pawns now they have achieved their aim – a vote for Brexit

    As you say, their attitude when such things are uncovered is ‘it’s nothing to do with me guv’ and legally it’s not

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