“as well as the growing town of Broughton and the small market town of Brigg itself.”

I know you can’t be expected to know all the little details, but the “growing” parts of Broughton are detached from the main settlement and are actually on the outskirts of Brigg. At some point the town boundaries need to be realigned, but it never seems to get to the top of the “to do” list.

I’m surprised that this seat isn’t more marginal, and it wonders me that it might become so as the towns keep growing.

A small correction: Goole was traditionally in the West Riding, not in West Yorkshire. Nice new site!

The growing population and increasingly commuter nature if this seat is making it more Conservative.
The Tories haves enjoyed exceptional results here since 2010. Capturing the Council and performing well in the the PCC elections

I am not wholly convinced that Labour can win here. Andrew Percy is a good MP, rebellious from the start, anti-tuition fees, pro-cracking on down on payday loans, pro-EMA just rightwing on other things. If UKIP rise who knows what will happen, but it is possible. Labour did come first in the PCC elections on the first ballot, after all.

Labour came first on the ballot in Humberside and locally in North Lincs (just). As North Lincs includes Scunthorpe, it is fair to assume that in the PCC election, like in local elections, the Tories came first in Brigg and Goole on the PCC ballot.

The Tories came first in 2007 locals, 2010 general election, PCC elections probably. You have to go back to 2005 since Labour came first in any poll here.

And also Tories came first in 2011 locals, actually gaining seats off Labour.

“Andrew Percy is a good MP, rebellious from the start, anti-tuition fees, pro-cracking on down on payday loans, pro-EMA just rightwing on other things.”

His views on EMA and tuition fees presumably come from his having been a comprehensive school teacher in Hull. The Tory party could have done with more voices like that warning them of the long term consequences of imposing enormous debt on kids from ordinary backgrounds.

This seat will be a comfortable Tory hold I think, although UKIP will have the potential to do very well if they stand.

I agree with Bob and Hemelig

Percy is one of the few Tory MPs from a humble background and seems to understand his constituents far better than your average careerist A-lister, who tend to get parachuted into safe Tory seats most have never even heard of before

He’s the antithesis of a Cameroon

UKIP will do well here – but I hope Percey hangs on here – and suspect that he will

The irony being that Andrew Percy was an A-lister himself, thanks in part to his friendship with David Davis. Shows how things have changed – being a friend of Davis would certainly not get you on to the A-list today.

H.HEMMELIG – you are wrong to say this seat is a comfortable Tory hold. It is this type of seat which is unpredictable, nobody knows what will happen. Indications is that Labour will win it, but I am not wholly convinced because Andrew Percy is a good Tory who is broadly speaking on the right, but can even attack the Tories from the left. Also, there are local factors and if Ed does not promise an in/out referendum then it is unlikely to win here. I think Labour can win it, but at the moment I am unconvinced – I want to see the candidate first.

So what’s happened to our bet on Hornsey & Wood Green then?

Chheck your email.

OK got it and replied.

Jacky Crawford selected for Labour:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3yzrjcvrlZs

HH, Bob & Tim Jones – very true. Andrew Percy voted for and against the Labour motion on the Bedroom Tax/Spare Room Subsidy in order to register an abstention. The Minister Esther McVey, was woeful on an empty frontbench.

Prediction for 2015-
Percy (Conservative)- 43%
Crawford (Labour)- 37%
UKIP- 9%
Liberal Democrats- 8%
Others- 3%

I hadn’t noticed that Crawford was selected. I used to know one of the other contenders Margaret Pinder well since she was in my year at King’s College Cambridge. I think the prediction isn’t a bad one though it might be somewhat narrower a Tory hold than that.

I think The Results is about right actually. This seat looks to be trending Conservative long-term.

Andrew Percy is the sort of MP that’s really needed. Presumably not too fussed about climbing the ministerial ladder, and is an effective backbencher who doesn’t blindly tow the party line.

I tend to lean towards Labour politically, but I wish there were more MPs under 40 on the opposition benches like that.

Of all the Tory gains in Yorkshire in 2010, this is the one with the highest Tory share of the vote 45%. Higher than the Tory share of the vote in Scarborough which was gained in 05.

The Tories only did better in terms of share of the vote in one other 2010 gain, but that was Harrogate, gained from the Lib Dems.

The Greens have selected Natalie Hurst.

Seat, only Tory because of boundary changes.
But since the rise of ukip, we’re finding a 20-22% vote for them by all expressing a vi. Braking down at around 13% x Tory – ukip and 7% x lab-ukip. Labour looking like it could take it in ge15.

As someone on the ground for the Tories here, we are finding that the Labour vote is falling significantly to UKIP in Goole. In the Euro elections, Labour finished a very poor third here, they are recording their worst results in local town council by-elections.

The Ashcroft commentator is sadly not well informed on this seat. The boundary changes before the 2010 election were small but actually made the seat slightly better for Labour, removing Conservative voting polling boxes out of the seat.

Ashcroft should really stick to facts rather than what he or she would like to believe. Whether it is the PCC elections, the Euro elections, the local elections or more recent by-elections, the Tory vote has been increasing or holding firm at about 2010 levels, whereas the Labour vote has been moving backwards.

Box counts show this and the recent Brigg Town Council by-election where the Tories recorded 77% of the vote and Labour their worst showing ever shows this.

Our local polling shows Labour nowhere in contention, and probably only a few percentage points ahead of UKIP, behind in many parts of the seat.

Find out more about the Labour candidate Jacky Crawford at http://www.briggandgoole.co.uk

The electoral calculus website predicts that Labour candidate Jacky Crawford will win the seat with 38.58% of the vote, compared to 38.04% for current MP Andrew Percy.

Clearly this is a highly marginal constituency. However with a likely (albeit) small national swing towards Labour in May, coupled with the quality of the Labour candidate (a former nurse, a current social worker, talking about topics such as the NHS and who appears to be inspiring young people to canvass for her) I predict that Labour will win the seat in May 2015.

The electoral calculus website predicts that Labour candidate Jacky Crawford will win the seat with 38.58% of the vote, compared to 38.04% for current MP Andrew Percy.

Clearly this is a highly marginal constituency. However with a likely (albeit small) national swing towards Labour in May, coupled with the quality of the Labour candidate (a former nurse, a current social worker, talking about topics such as the NHS and who appears to be inspiring young people to canvass for her) I predict that Labour will win the seat in May 2015.

The electoral calculus predictions for this seat are flawed as they predict 0 votes for the Tories in Goole North. If that were rectified to a correct projection of votes from Goole North it would actually predict a Tory hold. The reason the prediction predicts 0 votes is because it is based on the 2011 local election results which the Tories did not contest in that Ward.

India, it is very sweet that, as one of the Labour candidate’s obvious helpers, you feel the need to come on here to support your candidate, however making predictions on here doesn’t equate to victory. Nor does it make what you wish to be true, actually come true!

Perhaps we can stick to more sensible and factually based predictions in future.

I agree with an earlier comment – UKIP will do well here. Many people have given up on politics, “they’re all the same” is a common refrain. Andrew Percy has been a fantastic MP but the Westminster elite are totally out of touch with ordinary people’s lives and problems.

I’ve been in Goole a couple of times recently – and noticed that Percy and Crawford have offices a few doors apart.

What struck me was how undeprived it looked.

Certainly not affluent but respectable even in the cheaper areas.

Considering that Goole is Labour’s best area in this constituency I think they have no chance here.

In fact I wouldn’t be surprised to see an increased Conservative majority.

Labour’s only chance of winning here is if they poll exceptionally well in Goole – and there’s scant evidence that they will

The other two main towns – Brigg and Broughton – are the sort of places that have been on a long-term trend towards the Conservatives since 2001

Whilst Percy’s right-wing populist credentials might or might not help keep the UKIP vote in check, I don’t see Labour posing a serious threat to his chances of re-election here

Conservative Hold. 1,500 majority.

Tory by at least 4k.

The Conservatives held this on a swing of over 7%!

Con 53.0 (+8.2)
Lab 27.2 (-5.9)
UKIP 15.5 (+11.5)
Gre 2.1 (+2.1)
LD 1.8 (-12.9)

Con majority 11,176

“In fact I wouldn’t be surprised to see an increased Conservative majority.”

I am surprised by how much it increased though – an immense result.

I don’t like betting at odds on but put a load on the Conservatives here at 1/4 on election day.

Quite a staggering result here. Must be the highest Labour to Conservative swing in the country.

I think the result here confirms that Andrew Percy has built up a considerable personal vote, but that it also may be down to changing demographics in the Tories’ favour as well.

The Tories increased their vote by 8.2 percentage points.

Think NE somerset was a bigger swing than here.

The Conservatives hit 60pc here – their vote is now up by 15 pts on 2010.

This is safe for the Cons now, its the type of seat where Lab has really fell out of favour. Lab will probably always have a base here in Goole itself but the surrounding rural areas are now indistinguishable (electorally) to rural south Lincolnsjire and will always outvote whatever support Lab cobble together.

Tbf the MP is very popular. My gf is from a neighbouring constitency and from what ive heard he seems decent