Bridgend

2015 Result:
Conservative: 12697 (32.2%)
Labour: 14624 (37.1%)
Lib Dem: 1648 (4.2%)
Plaid Cymru: 2784 (7.1%)
Green: 736 (1.9%)
UKIP: 5911 (15%)
TUSC: 118 (0.3%)
Independent: 763 (1.9%)
Others: 172 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 1927 (4.9%)

Category: Marginal Labour seat

Geography:

Main population centres: Bridgend, Porthcawl, Pyle.

Profile:

Politics:


Current MP
MADELEINE MOON (Labour) Born 1950, Sunderland. Educated at Whinney Hill Secondary Modern and Keele University. Former social worker. First elected as MP for Bridgend in 2005.
Past Results
2010
Con: 11668 (30%)
Lab: 13931 (36%)
LDem: 8658 (23%)
PC: 2269 (6%)
Oth: 1821 (5%)
MAJ: 2263 (6%)
2005*
Con: 9887 (26%)
Lab: 16410 (43%)
LDem: 7949 (21%)
PC: 2527 (7%)
Oth: 1086 (3%)
MAJ: 6523 (17%)
2001
Con: 9377 (25%)
Lab: 19422 (52%)
LDem: 5330 (14%)
PC: 2652 (7%)
Oth: 223 (1%)
MAJ: 10045 (27%)
1997
Con: 9867 (23%)
Lab: 25115 (58%)
LDem: 4968 (11%)
PC: 1649 (4%)
Oth: 1662 (4%)
MAJ: 15248 (35%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
MEIRION JENKINS (Conservative)
MADELEINE MOON (Labour) See above.
ANITA DAVIES (Liberal Democrat)
CAROLINE JONES (UKIP) Cafe owner and former prison officer. Contested Aberavon 2010 and South Wales Police election 2012 for the Conservatives.
ANTHONY WHITE (Green)
JAMES RADCLIFFE (Plaid)
ADAM JOHN LLOYD (National Front)
DAVID ELSTON (Pirate)
LES TALLON-MORRIS (Independent)
AARON DAVID (TUSC)
Links
Comments - 35 Responses on “Bridgend”
  1. Another seat that could be changed in a coalition ticket election. To my mind the Tories and Lib Dems are crying out for unity ticket and they would clean up nicely in seats like this especially with Ed Miliband as leader as his polling is dreadful.

  2. I would certainly agree that a joint ticket would benefit the Lib Dems, but i actually think it would damage Conservative prospects.

    If there was to be some sort of alliance between the Tories and Lib Dems (and i dont think there will be) i would suggest the Tories get a commitment from the Lib Dems to campaign as hard as possible in Con-Lab marginals.

  3. My forecast for 2015 here:

    Lab 45
    Con 25
    UKIP 9
    LD 9
    PC 8
    Others 4

  4. Meirion Jenkins is the Conservative candidate:

    https://twitter.com/meirionj

  5. His Twitter feed is amazingly bland. Very on-message and tells us nothing about himself.

  6. He was the runner-up for the Cardiff North nomination.

  7. Labour Hold. 7,000 majority.

  8. Lab Majority was only 1927. If Labour doesn’t recover by 2020 then could swing blue, a la Gower

  9. But what about the Welsh Assembly Election in 2016?

  10. Madeline Moon’s husband died at the beginning of April. I think it somehow impacted local Labour campaign. In her winning speech Moon apologized for not taking part to the campaign as much as she wanted and thanks rival candidates for respecting her difficulties

  11. If one looks at the Demography of the Bridgend constituency then you can see why in a goodish election for the Tories that it is not such a safe Labour seat. It differs greatly from the Valleys seats. Increasingly, and outside of the South Wales Valleys, the tide is turning away from Labour in Wales as a whole.

  12. I note that all of the Lab 45% Tory 25% bloggers are silent – !!!

  13. Correct Andrea

    I was the Pirate Party candidate and she did indeed say that, also shook our hands.

  14. This is the top Conservative target in Wales. On paper it looks like the sort of seat they should pick up fairly easily. However, a couple of caveats:

    1) As mentioned upthread, Labour may have underperformed here a bit last time as Madeline Moon’s husband died in the run-up to the election, taking away a lot of her campaigning time.

    2) This is, of course, Carwyn Jones’s seat in the assembly. That’s a high-profile campaigner for Labour, but I’m not sure he’s all that popular these days.

  15. Bridgend, Wrexham, Ynys Mon, Alan and Deeside, Delyn, Cardiff West, Swansea West are all vulnerable seats for labour

  16. Prime Minister campaigning here today.

  17. The Independent is reporting a You Gov “political barometer ” – posh name for a poll? – giving the Conservatives 40% to Labour 30%.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tories-labour-poll-wales-yogov-majority-seats-first-time-century-a7699776.html

    The 2015 voting figures were Labour 37% and Conservatives 27% : so a projected swing of a cool 10%!!!!

    Should this only be half way correct, this seat and the 4 Clwydian marginals (see my posting on Wrexham) all look like viable Conservatives gains.

  18. Also worth noting (see my posting earlier today on Dudley North, that by campaigning in Labour marginals like this May is making a statement on intent. She might have – supposedly – told the cabinet this morning not to believe the polls, but she clearly believes the gains are there to be had. Otherwise her travel plans would be different.

  19. If she didn’t believe the gains were there she wouldn’t have called a snap election (unless she knows a lot more than most about the expenses investigations)

  20. Or she wanted to hold an election before the economic impact of Brexit really takes hold.

    The economy over the next few years promises to be less than sparkling.

  21. It’s a risky strategy, elections are won and lost on leadership and the economy. If Brexit blows up the Tories and Teresa May could take fatal hit just like Brown and the Labour Government did after the crash. All the gains made on the 8th of June could all be lost by the by the next election.

  22. It could very easily come to pass that way, though the following election wouldn’t be until 2022 (rather than 2020) giving things more time to settle down and also if it IS a landslide then the government would have to fall that much further in the polls and the opposition do that much better in its target seats.

  23. That’s certainly a possibility, but on the flip side that’s perhaps why May has decided to try to buy an extra couple of years in order to potentially steady the ship post-Brexit.

    Another “flip side” argument is that quite often if there is an economic crash the public may choose to go with the hands that are on the tiller to mitigate the damage rather than going with someone new and untested. This was presumably quite a big factor in 1992, for example, as well as possibly the reason why 2010 saw a hung parliament when the Conservatives were well ahead in the polls for a long time prior to the election.

  24. Incidentally, my post was in reply to Matt’s above.

  25. I don’t think with Brexit negotiations and any possible impact that has on the economy as well that anyone can start to predict what will happen in 2022 at this stage. Who knows as well for instance if Labour will split after 8th June or in the next 5 years.

    In terms of this election though I agree it is next to impossible to see Labour holding Bridgend.

  26. Bridgend is not the only seat….how about Wrexham, Cardiff West, Newport West, Newport East, Swansea West, Ynys Mon etc etc

  27. Bridgend Cons gave rejected the choice of candidates CCHQ provided.

    They want a local and so have asked the Party Chairman to think again.

  28. Good for them. Having more local MPs is good for politics.

  29. From the BBC

    “The Tories’ “imposition” of a general election candidate in Bridgend could cost the party one of its main target seats, a regional official has warned.
    Karen Robson was confirmed as Conservative candidate for the constituency on Tuesday evening.
    South West Wales Tory chairman Alex Williams said Bridgend members felt “aggrieved” that a local candidate had not been added to the shortlist”

    So Central Office did not think again.

  30. I’m not a fan of parachuting, but I think it probably annoys local members more than it affects voting intention. Still a strong chance for the tories.

  31. Unless it annoys them enough to not campaign for her. I can imagine if people are really upset then that might happen

  32. That’s down to the candidate – if she’s not perceived to be personally much to blame beyond wanting to be an MP somewhere, and she embraces the local party, then they will generally roll up their sleeves and make the best of it – after all, why would they prefer a Labour MP? (especially in this seat, they may never get a better opportunity to win).

  33. I think CCHQ have put the local Association into supported status and sacked the Exec – that is the only way they can impose a candidate without notice or an EGM.

    Indeed the local Assoc Exec referred to threats of doing so, but they still didn’t budge.

    Imposing a candidate never really works for Cons or Labour, either in the medium term (MP v Assoc/CLP and there are several examples) in a safe seat, or perhaps even failing to win in a marginal.

  34. Amidst all the hullabaloo, let’s take a second to mark the departure of Carwyn Jones. His competent, no-fuss, solid-not-spectacular record as First Minister is exactly the sort of thing Westminster could do with more of.

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