Brent North

2015 Result:
Conservative: 17517 (33.5%)
Labour: 28351 (54.3%)
Lib Dem: 2607 (5%)
Green: 1539 (2.9%)
UKIP: 2024 (3.9%)
Independent: 197 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 10834 (20.7%)

Category: Very safe Labour seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of the Brent council area.

Main population centres: Wembley, Kenton, Kingsbury.

Profile: A residential seat with a growing Asian population, the sizeable majority of the population here are non-white. High ethnic population in UK constituencies is normally associated with deprived inner city seats, but Brent North is most owner-occupied residential suburbs, a seat of upwardly mobile successful Asians.

Politics: Brent North was once a safe Conservative seat, represented by the eccentrically bewhiskered former schoolmaster Sir Rhodes Boyson. It has shifted radically towards Labour since those days, it had the biggest swing to Labour in the country in the 1997 landslide, and a further swing of almost 10 per cent to Labour at the following election in 2001 - presumably through the absence of the ideosyncratic Boyson and the growth in ethnic minority voters who, even when in an affluent seat like Brent North, are not inclined to vote Tory.


Current MP
BARRY GARDINER (Labour) Born 1957, Glasgow. Educated at Glasgow High School and St Andrews University. Former senior partner in shipping insurance and arbitration. Cambridge councillor 1988-1994. First elected as MP for Brent North in 1997. PPS to Beverley Hughes 2002-4. Parliamentary Under-Secretary at the Northern Ireland office 2004-5, the DTI 2005-6, DEFRA 2006-2007. He was appointed Gordon Brown`s special representative on forestry in 2007, but stood down in 2008 after backing calls for a leadership challenge.
Past Results
2010
Con: 16486 (32%)
Lab: 24514 (47%)
LDem: 8879 (17%)
GRN: 725 (1%)
Oth: 1694 (3%)
MAJ: 8028 (15%)
2005*
Con: 11779 (33%)
Lab: 17420 (49%)
LDem: 5672 (16%)
Oth: 811 (2%)
MAJ: 5641 (16%)
2001
Con: 9944 (29%)
Lab: 20149 (59%)
LDem: 3846 (11%)
MAJ: 10205 (30%)
1997
Con: 15324 (40%)
Lab: 19343 (51%)
LDem: 3104 (8%)
Oth: 403 (1%)
MAJ: 4019 (11%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
LUKE PARKER (Conservative)
BARRY GARDINER (Labour) See above.
PAUL LORBER (Liberal Democrat)
ALAN CRAIG (UKIP) Educated at Newcastle University. Former businessman and warden in a young offender institution. Newham councillor 2002-2010 for the Christian Peoples Alliance. Contested London mayoralty 2008 for the CPA.
SCOTT BARTLE (Green) Psychologist.
ELCENA JEFFERS (Independent)
Links
Comments - 147 Responses on “Brent North”
  1. Conservative Councillor from Harrow East Constituency has applied to be Conservative Party 2015 PPC for Brent North.

  2. Brent North Conservatives will have their PPC selected before X-mas holidays.

  3. REALLY GREAT NEWS ATIQ MALIK! WILL YOU BE RELEASING THE STATEMENTS? AS THE WAY THE CANDIDATE SIMON MARCUS IN HAMPSTEAD AND KILBURN WAS CHOSEN WAS VERY GOOD.

  4. Brent North Conservatives on 10 Dec will hold meeting of their members to select the candidate to fight the seat at the next election.

  5. Brent North Conservatives have selected final 4 ( 3 Male and 1 Female) who will be facing a selection meeting of the full association on 10 Dec.

  6. electoralforecast.co.uk. Vote share prediction
    CON.23%
    LAB..50
    LD….16
    UKIP..3
    GRN…5
    OTH…3

  7. I don’t see the Conservative vote falling by 9% and the Lib Dems by just 1%. Is there any evidence for this in recent local election results in Brent?

    The Lib Dems have been wipped out in Brent.

  8. I DONT BUY THAT BARRY WILL INCREASE HIS VOTE SHARE.

  9. First, no need for capitals. Second, I don’t understand why you’d think that. Almost all polls show at least some increased Labour vote share, and it’s generally acknowledged that the party is likely to do better in London than average. So why is it so unlikely that Barry Gardiner wouldn’t achieve an increase in his vote share? I know that he had a way above-average result in 2010, and that he may have been helped slightly by the very public disunity in the local Conservative association, but there’s no evidence of a Conservative recovery to speak of. Remember, having already done very badly by recent standards in the 2010 local elections, they lost their remaining seats in both Preston & Northwick Park wards in this year’s local elections, meaning that only Kenton ward has any Tory councillors in the constituency.

  10. Cllr Ameet Jogia (Canons ward Harrow East) is very likely to be selected as Conservative PPC tomorrow evening.

  11. The other well respected website electoralcalculus.co.uk.co.uk are also predicting a LAB share of over 50% (52.3%).

  12. “Cllr Ameet Jogia (Canons ward Harrow East) is very likely to be selected as Conservative PPC tomorrow evening.”

    What would the other candidates think of this prediction?

  13. Please ignore my last entry. Cllr Ameet Jogia is not on the final list. Final list for selection has 4 candidates 3 male and 1 female none of them are local and none of them are from BME community. Selection meeting will be held today in the evening.

  14. ATIQ MALIQ – “…none of them are local and none of them are from BME community. ”

    That is very surprising. 2/3 of BN is Asian/black.

    Anyway whoever is the Tory candidate will not be able to beat LAB in the Alperton, Wembley Cent, Sudbury, Fryent & Qnsbury wards.

    is Louise Hall on shortlist?

  15. DEEPTHROAT. No Lousie Hall is not on shortlist.

  16. The Tories probably still entertained faint hopes of gaining this in 2010 had they won the landslide majority they seemed to be heading for in 2008-2009.

    They will be under no such illusions now, hence the extremely late candidate selection and not bothering to engage an ethnic minority candidate.

  17. HH- not as late as GE2010 when BN CON did not select till mid Feb 2010.

    Anyone think it’s very surprsiing, perhaps a little odd even, that here were no BME on short list and “… none of them are local and none of them are from BME community.”?

  18. When Rhodes Boyson was MP here this was the only constituency in the country that was 40% non-white and a solid Conservative seat, but it also had a very middle class Asian vote.

    I assumed that since then the Asian Tory vote (and the white voters) here moved out to other suburbs and the home counties, with more former owner occupied properties being let / sub-divided/ turned into HMO’s.

    I would imagine that Brent North was now around 60% non-white, and the movement from safe Tory seat to safe Labour seat in Brent North is no different to Harrow West.

  19. DEEPTHROAT Tories had an Asian (Gujarati Hindu) candidate in 2010 but he lost.

  20. HH is spot on

    It is not worth the Tories while trying to win this seat. It has gone into the Labour forever category. Resources are better spent trying to hold onto one of the Harrow seats.

    By any means North Wembley is quite scruffy these days and is not a particularly aspiring type suburb anymore. Wembley central is particularly horrifying and has been for quite some time now.

  21. Labour strength Social Housing Estates, Muslims, Tamils and Black voters. The good thing this time for the Tory candidate is that Tories in the constituency are united. Selection committee members had picked the best candidates for the final selection.

  22. Are you able to tell us why is there no BME on the list to be selected as CON PPC for GE2015?

  23. Where is the final selection list Atik? Who is on it? I thought you would make a good candidate again!

  24. Congratulations to Luke Parker who has been selected as the Tory candidate for Brent North.

  25. Thank you for the heads up, ATIQ MALIQ; always good on these blogs to have the ‘inside information’.

  26. “Cllr Ameet Jogia is not on the final list. Final list for selection has 4 candidates 3 male and 1 female none of them are local and none of them are from BME community.”

    Why are none of them local?

  27. DAVEYD
    Locals might not be on Approved candidates list. Harshadbhai is local but he lost in 2010, and also lost council election in 2014. In my opinion Association has selected the best candidate.

  28. Luke Parker. (from his website)…
    “I still remember the ‘horror’ I felt when I realised I was a Conservative!

    As a teenager, I’d always presumed that I was a Labour supporter.  In my home, “Tory” was a swear word!

    As a child, my father was diagnosed with an aggressive form of cancer, and despite being a ‘lowly’ factory worker at the time, received world-class treatment and care at the Royal Marsden Hospital.  When my parents were out of work for nearly three years I received a fantastic state education, with loans and grants to support me through college and allow me to become the first member of my family to go to university.

    So when I began to study politics and look at the different philosophies of the political parties, I was surprised to find that the Conservative Party was the closest to my own beliefs.  I couldn’t shake the view that, despite the best intentions of many who work within the Public Sector, government institutions are overly political &who provide poor services. ..”

  29. Luke Parker…. (cont’d)
    “To quote Milton Friedman: “If the Government ran the Sahara desert, in three years they’d be out of sand!

    The things that drew me to the Conservative Party (Thatcherism in particular) were as follows:

    Personal freedom:
    Whilst the state can liberate people through education and the provision of healthcare, the safety net all too often becomes a trap.  It’s in danger of being a cliché but I was struck by the liberating effect that the ‘right to buy’ programme had on my immediate community.
    …”

    So, in the north of LB Brent, thru Luke Parker, the spirit of Dr Rhodes Boyson lives on!

  30. Hardly.

    Like most other people, Sir Rhodes would be rolling his eyes reading through that hackneyed crap.

    It is never a good idea to trust someone who can’t stop going on about how supposedly working class and disadvantaged their upbringing was…this applies in business as well as in politics.

  31. Cant be working class if his parents owned a pub. Hes part of the bourgeoisie.

  32. “It is never a good idea to trust someone who can’t stop going on about how supposedly working class and disadvantaged their upbringing was…”

    He’s just playing the card’s he’s been dealt. Sadly we live in a world where its possible to gain advantage by playing the race card or the gender card. It’s not surprising some try playing the working class card.

  33. One of my favourite lines by some PPCs from working class backgrounds is how they were first in their family to attend uni (because a university degree is the *only* route to success these days…) and then their work history pretty much sets them up for a life in politics. I.e. SpAds. Labour’s candidate for Sherwood, for example, was an assistant to Yvette Cooper.

    During the height of the Unite scandal last year, Guido mentioned her due to her backing from USDAW.

  34. Another common occurance is candidates trumpeting the fact that they were state educated secure in the knowledge that nobody will bother to find out that their state school was one where a well above average income is needed to afford a house in the relevant catchment area.

  35. “Another common occurance is candidates trumpeting the fact that they were state educated secure in the knowledge that nobody will bother to find out that their state school was one where a well above average income is needed to afford a house in the relevant catchment area”

    Hmm…Ed Miliband springs to mind

  36. I see that the ex Labour, ex UKIP PPC has turned out to have lied on her CV, including claiming she went to Oxford (and misspelling the College). She sounded less than impressive on tv too. The number of ethnic PPCs and defecting Cllrs who end up in Court etc is staggering.

  37. Did Natasha Bolter think that she would never be found out!

  38. What happened to the selection for Brent Central ATIQ MALIK

  39. Don’t encourage him Davey.

  40. DAVEYD by 15th January their will have their PPC.

  41. Former Brent Councillor (Preston ward) Dr Alan Mendoza has been selected as the Conservative Party PPC for Brent Central.

  42. Conservative Councillor for Kenton Ward Cllr B M Patel has passed away. RIP

  43. UKIP selection: Martin Ferguson.

  44. Andy JS Martin Ferguson PPC?

  45. I think Kenton Ward by-election will be held on 27 February 2015. Michael Maurice (Brent North Conservatives Chair and May 2014 council candidate for Preston ward) and 2 former Councillors Kanta Mistry and John Detre are keen to keen to contest. In my opinion John Detre is the best candidate I hope he gets selected.

  46. Will probably be one of the last council by-elections before it becomes more convenient to hold alongside the general election.

  47. AM: yes I mean PPC by selection. To begin with I was a bit confused whether Lord Stephen Priestley was selected for Brent North but I think he’s Brent Central for UKIP.

  48. Kenton ward by-election will be held on Thursday 5 March 2015.

  49. Looks very much like a CON hold.

  50. One would have to assume so. The Conservatives have never yet lost Kenton ward (at least, the ward of that name on Brent council), though in line with most other wards in the constituency it is much less safe than it was a generation ago, when it was quite common for the Tories to poll in excess of 70% of the vote.

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