Brentford & Isleworth

2015 Result:
Conservative: 24631 (42.9%)
Labour: 25096 (43.8%)
Lib Dem: 2305 (4%)
Green: 2120 (3.7%)
UKIP: 3203 (5.6%)
MAJORITY: 465 (0.8%)

Category: Ultra-marginal Labour seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of the Hounslow council area.

Main population centres: Chiswick, Brentford, Isleworth, Hounslow.

Profile: A long seat that snakes along the north bank of the Thames, opposite Barnes and Kew Gardens. This is a mixed seat that changes as follows the Thames west, from upmarket and now reliably Conservative Chiswick, a mix of residential and office areas, home of the Fullers Brewery and popular with young urban professionals; past Gunnersbury and the council estates around Brentford Towers into the lower quality housing and more mixed areas of Brentford. There are large green spaces here around Osterley Park House and Syon House and Tory areas like Spring Grove, but moving south-west it becomes better for Labour. Isleworth was once considered a Conservative area but there is a far amount of council housing around the sewage works here and, moving westwards into Hounslow a large asian population.

Politics: This is a key marginal between the Conservatives and Labour. It was represented by the Conservatives between 1974 and 1997, latterly by Nirj Deva, later a Conservative MEP. In 1997 and 2001 Labour secured towering five figure majorities here, but it slumped to only 4411 in 2005 before falling to the Conservatives in 2010. In 2015 it was regained by Labour.


Current MP
RUTH CADBURY (Labour) Former local government officer. Hounslow councillor since 1998. Deputy leader of Hounslow council 2010-2012. First elected as MP for Brentford & Isleworth in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 20022 (37%)
Lab: 18064 (34%)
LDem: 12718 (24%)
UKIP: 863 (2%)
Oth: 2098 (4%)
MAJ: 1958 (4%)
2005*
Con: 13918 (30%)
Lab: 18329 (40%)
LDem: 10477 (23%)
GRN: 1652 (4%)
Oth: 1641 (4%)
MAJ: 4411 (10%)
2001
Con: 12957 (29%)
Lab: 23275 (52%)
LDem: 5994 (13%)
GRN: 1324 (3%)
Oth: 964 (2%)
MAJ: 10318 (23%)
1997
Con: 17825 (32%)
Lab: 32249 (57%)
LDem: 4613 (8%)
Oth: 1448 (3%)
MAJ: 14424 (26%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
MARY MACLEOD (Conservative) Born 1969. Educated at Glasgow University. Management consultant. Contested Ross, Skye and Inverness West 1997. MP for Brentford and Isleworth 2010 to 2015.
RUTH CADBURY (Labour) Former local government officer. Hounslow councillor since 1998. Deputy leader of Hounslow council 2010-2012.
JOSEPH BOURKE (Liberal Democrat) Chartered accountant. Contested Dagenham and Rainham 2010.
RICHARD HENDRON (UKIP) Barrister and former police officer.
DANIEL GOLDSMITH (Green) IT consultant. Contested Feltham and Heston 2011 by-election.
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Comments - 519 Responses on “Brentford & Isleworth”
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  1. @Maxim another possibility would be Bromley and Chislehurst because given how close the Borough of Bromley was it is possible that leave could have carried two constituencies there especially when you consider that the 3 wards in Lewisham West and Penge would have been heavily remain (B&C being more likely to vote leave than Beckenham). I guess that East Ham is a possibility too seen as Newham’s remain margin was only 5.8% and West Ham contains some gentrified (thus more remain) areas around Stratford.

  2. A Croydon seat, most likely Central, may be possibility too as Croydon has three whole constituencies and the borough was under a 10% margin for remain. New Addington would probably have been extremely heavily leave.

  3. The proposed seat here is notionally Tory by about 4,500

  4. Yeah, looks about right – the movement of some Hounslow wards to the Feltham & Hounslow seat (including mine!) removes some of the more heavily Labour-leaning wards.

    The new suggestions seem to me to be a better fit in this area than the previous review, which saw my ward becoming part of a “Hampton” seat somewhat nonsensically. Will also mean little shift in terms of sitting MPs by the looks – Ruth Cadbury would be the Brentford & Chiswick incumbent, Seema Malhotra Feltham & Hounslow and the Southall MP taking the Heston & Southall (or whatever it’s called!) seat.

  5. Given how close this seat was in 2015 it could be “one to watch” this time around. One key battleground could be one of the more central wards of Osterley & Spring Grove, which has become more marginal in recent years (and returned a 2-1 split in the last locals). However, this was also the one ward in the constituency that voted “Leave” in the referendum.

    On the other hand, the Labour vote, as is presumably the case across large parts of London, is likely to be more solid here than it might be in other parts of the country.

    Another 3-figure majority (either way) therefore? I could be in for a late one with possible recounts…

  6. Think this will be a Con gain. I do think Labour will do better in London than anywhere else but this will be one of 4-5 seats they’ll lose in the capital.

  7. Mary Macleod, the 2010-15 MP here, has announced she hopes to secure the nomination to run again. She’ll likely win, quite possibly with a bigger majority than she had in 2010.

  8. akmd:

    I think we are probably in agreement that Labour’s 4 2015 gains in London are all at risk.

    Beyond that there is a second tier of seats which – should the polls remain bleak for Labour – are also vulnerable : Eltham, Hampstead/Kilburn, Westminster North, and possibly Hammersmith and Tooting. All (save Eltham?) remain voting and – save Eltham – socially polarised but the type of terrain the Conservatives won or were close to winning in the 80’s.

  9. I agree that Labour’s 2015 gains from the Tories in London are likely to be lost although they might just retain Enfield North thanks to favourable demographic change. Of the other seats you mentioned, only Eltham seems at real risk of being lost. Hampstead might go but I think they will keep the others

  10. Jack – I did wonder whether she’d consider running again. I may be biased but I felt she was a very good constituency MP (was very receptive the one occasion I was compelled to contact her).

    I just feel the mood on the ground here may not be conducive to an “easy” gain.

  11. AKMD

    I think your analysis is good 10.30 post.

  12. Or rather, 11.30 post that reads as 10.30 according to UKPR clock.

  13. @Jason Harcourt
    McLeod had a reputation for saying ‘you didn’t vote for me so I’m not going to help you’.
    Whether it’s true or not, I don’t know but the perception is widespread.
    I suspect she was very good for the well-to-do but not very interested in the poorer elements.

  14. Oh, and former Olympic rower James Cracknell, who is vice chair(?) of the CCP is angling for the Tory nomination against McLeod.

  15. I am reasonably confident about Conservative prospects here. The Labour majority is very small and if I recally correctly, the Remain lead was below the London average. For me, it’s a much more reliable bet than Ealing Central & Acton.

  16. *recall correctly

  17. Enfield North id put as a likely Labour hold. Joan Ryans running there.for her 5th time and her expenses scandal is years in the past. The demographics now lean Labour. Remains to be seen what effect Chase Hospital has.

  18. Quint-I’m in two minds re Enfield North. That there has been pro-Labour demographic change is impossible to deny but I was surprised at how underwhelming the swing was to Labour in 2015 and we shouldn’t forget that it voted to remain in the EU by a margin of less than 1%. I think the Conservatives may just win it back.

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