Brentford & Isleworth

2015 Result:
Conservative: 24631 (42.9%)
Labour: 25096 (43.8%)
Lib Dem: 2305 (4%)
Green: 2120 (3.7%)
UKIP: 3203 (5.6%)
MAJORITY: 465 (0.8%)

Category: Ultra-marginal Labour seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of the Hounslow council area.

Main population centres: Chiswick, Brentford, Isleworth, Hounslow.

Profile: A long seat that snakes along the north bank of the Thames, opposite Barnes and Kew Gardens. This is a mixed seat that changes as follows the Thames west, from upmarket and now reliably Conservative Chiswick, a mix of residential and office areas, home of the Fullers Brewery and popular with young urban professionals; past Gunnersbury and the council estates around Brentford Towers into the lower quality housing and more mixed areas of Brentford. There are large green spaces here around Osterley Park House and Syon House and Tory areas like Spring Grove, but moving south-west it becomes better for Labour. Isleworth was once considered a Conservative area but there is a far amount of council housing around the sewage works here and, moving westwards into Hounslow a large asian population.

Politics: This is a key marginal between the Conservatives and Labour. It was represented by the Conservatives between 1974 and 1997, latterly by Nirj Deva, later a Conservative MEP. In 1997 and 2001 Labour secured towering five figure majorities here, but it slumped to only 4411 in 2005 before falling to the Conservatives in 2010. In 2015 it was regained by Labour.


Current MP
RUTH CADBURY (Labour) Former local government officer. Hounslow councillor since 1998. Deputy leader of Hounslow council 2010-2012. First elected as MP for Brentford & Isleworth in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 20022 (37%)
Lab: 18064 (34%)
LDem: 12718 (24%)
UKIP: 863 (2%)
Oth: 2098 (4%)
MAJ: 1958 (4%)
2005*
Con: 13918 (30%)
Lab: 18329 (40%)
LDem: 10477 (23%)
GRN: 1652 (4%)
Oth: 1641 (4%)
MAJ: 4411 (10%)
2001
Con: 12957 (29%)
Lab: 23275 (52%)
LDem: 5994 (13%)
GRN: 1324 (3%)
Oth: 964 (2%)
MAJ: 10318 (23%)
1997
Con: 17825 (32%)
Lab: 32249 (57%)
LDem: 4613 (8%)
Oth: 1448 (3%)
MAJ: 14424 (26%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
MARY MACLEOD (Conservative) Born 1969. Educated at Glasgow University. Management consultant. Contested Ross, Skye and Inverness West 1997. MP for Brentford and Isleworth 2010 to 2015.
RUTH CADBURY (Labour) Former local government officer. Hounslow councillor since 1998. Deputy leader of Hounslow council 2010-2012.
JOSEPH BOURKE (Liberal Democrat) Chartered accountant. Contested Dagenham and Rainham 2010.
RICHARD HENDRON (UKIP) Barrister and former police officer.
DANIEL GOLDSMITH (Green) IT consultant. Contested Feltham and Heston 2011 by-election.
Links
Comments - 532 Responses on “Brentford & Isleworth”
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  1. Mary Macleod, the 2010-15 MP here, has announced she hopes to secure the nomination to run again. She’ll likely win, quite possibly with a bigger majority than she had in 2010.

  2. akmd:

    I think we are probably in agreement that Labour’s 4 2015 gains in London are all at risk.

    Beyond that there is a second tier of seats which – should the polls remain bleak for Labour – are also vulnerable : Eltham, Hampstead/Kilburn, Westminster North, and possibly Hammersmith and Tooting. All (save Eltham?) remain voting and – save Eltham – socially polarised but the type of terrain the Conservatives won or were close to winning in the 80’s.

  3. I agree that Labour’s 2015 gains from the Tories in London are likely to be lost although they might just retain Enfield North thanks to favourable demographic change. Of the other seats you mentioned, only Eltham seems at real risk of being lost. Hampstead might go but I think they will keep the others

  4. Jack – I did wonder whether she’d consider running again. I may be biased but I felt she was a very good constituency MP (was very receptive the one occasion I was compelled to contact her).

    I just feel the mood on the ground here may not be conducive to an “easy” gain.

  5. AKMD

    I think your analysis is good 10.30 post.

  6. Or rather, 11.30 post that reads as 10.30 according to UKPR clock.

  7. @Jason Harcourt
    McLeod had a reputation for saying ‘you didn’t vote for me so I’m not going to help you’.
    Whether it’s true or not, I don’t know but the perception is widespread.
    I suspect she was very good for the well-to-do but not very interested in the poorer elements.

  8. Oh, and former Olympic rower James Cracknell, who is vice chair(?) of the CCP is angling for the Tory nomination against McLeod.

  9. I am reasonably confident about Conservative prospects here. The Labour majority is very small and if I recally correctly, the Remain lead was below the London average. For me, it’s a much more reliable bet than Ealing Central & Acton.

  10. *recall correctly

  11. Enfield North id put as a likely Labour hold. Joan Ryans running there.for her 5th time and her expenses scandal is years in the past. The demographics now lean Labour. Remains to be seen what effect Chase Hospital has.

  12. Quint-I’m in two minds re Enfield North. That there has been pro-Labour demographic change is impossible to deny but I was surprised at how underwhelming the swing was to Labour in 2015 and we shouldn’t forget that it voted to remain in the EU by a margin of less than 1%. I think the Conservatives may just win it back.

  13. Tory – one key re: the referendum is that the reliably blue wards of Chiswick voted very heavily for Remain, as did the reliably red wards round my way. Arguably the main battleground ward, Osterley & Spring Grove, voted quite heavily in favour of Leave. This seat overall was quite decisively Remain (the Hounslow result was so close because the Feltham & Heston wards voted Leave by an equally large margin).

    Guymonde – I hadn’t heard anything like that re: MacLeod but I don’t claim to be “in the know” in the slightest.

  14. Jason
    What was the complete leave/remain ward breakdown for the borough of Hounslow?

    I’m surprised that Osterley & Spring Grove voted ‘leave’.

  15. The ward results are available to download here:

    https://www.hounslow.gov.uk/downloads/file/312/eu_referendum_declaration_count_totals_ward_hounslow_area

    The allocation of postal votes may skew things somewhat, however. Not sure why they couldn’t just allocate the postal votes to the ward they were received from.

  16. IMO A very likely CON GAIN. ..I would say it’s a 80% probability.

  17. As expected, Mary MacLeod has been selected by the Conservatives to contest the seat again.

  18. Just three candidates, no Green or UKIP this time.

  19. This seat will depend upon turnout. If Chiswick votes more heavily than Brentford and Isleworth wards, Mary McLeod wins. If Labour can get the vote out in Hounslow and those two wards they will be closer.

  20. @GT
    The turnout differential between Chiswick and the rest in 2015 was not that great, also one of the three Chiswick wards (Turnham Green) struggles with turnout due to a transient population and a high level of private renting.

  21. I think the Conservatives will win this one- the Remain vote wasn’t huge by London standards and the required swing is vanishingly small.

  22. Aside from what I said above about the key battleground of Osterley and Spring Grove, local factors could come into play in Isleworth – there has been a lot of anger around a local thoroughfare being closed off at the behest of a small group of residents in the face of massive opposition, and the council ignoring its consultation results and going ahead with the closure. While it was thought this could impact on the local elections next year instead I have now seen posters saying June 8th is an opportunity to stick it to them.

    Obviously this could only be a bit of bluster and it may not end up switching (m)any votes, but it’s definitely worth noting.

    I still think this will be a Conservative gain but possibly as marginal as the Labour majority is now.

  23. Apparently Labour was ahead in all wards of Brentford and Isleworth. Not good for the Tories at all..

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