Brent Central

2015 Result:
Conservative: 9567 (20.3%)
Labour: 29216 (62.1%)
Lib Dem: 3937 (8.4%)
Green: 1912 (4.1%)
UKIP: 1850 (3.9%)
TUSC: 235 (0.5%)
Independent: 145 (0.3%)
Others: 170 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 19649 (41.8%)

Category: Safe Labour seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of the Brent council area.

Main population centres: Willesden, Neasden, Kensal Green, Cricklewood, Harlesden.

Profile: A diverse residential seat that is home to many immigrant communities. There are traditionally strong links to Ireland in Willesden, Harlesden and Stonebridge are largely Afro-carribean, Neasden has a large Asian population and is the site of the immense Hindu temple, BAPS Shri Swaminarayan Mandir, at the time of its building in 1996 the largest outside India. The seat also contains Wembley Stadium and the huge Park Royal Industrial estate, which employs 35000 people, particularly in food manufacture.

Politics: This was one of only two seats to be fought by two sitting MPs in the 2010 general election (the other being Poplar and Limehouse). In this case Sarah Teather, the MP for the abolished Brent East seat chose to stand against the Labour incumbent of Brent South, Dawn Butler, rather than contest the Hampstead and Kilburn seat which on paper appeared to be a better chance for the Liberal Democrats. In the event Teather`s gamble paid off - she won Brent Central while Labour held Hampstead and Kilburn. Dawn Butler regained the seat in 2015 on a huge swing, Sarah Teather having stood down.


Current MP
DAWN BUTLER (Labour) Born 1969, Forest Gate. Former trade union officer. MP for Brent South 2005-2010. Contested Brent Central 2010.. First elected as MP for Brent Central in 2015. PPS to Jane Kennedy 2005-2006. Government whip 2008-2009. Minister for Young citizens 2009-2010.
Past Results
2010
Con: 5067 (11%)
Lab: 18681 (41%)
LDem: 20026 (44%)
GRN: 668 (1%)
Oth: 881 (2%)
MAJ: 1345 (3%)
2005*
Con: 4485 (15%)
Lab: 17501 (59%)
LDem: 6175 (21%)
GRN: 957 (3%)
Oth: 646 (2%)
MAJ: 11326 (38%)
2001
Con: 3604 (13%)
Lab: 20984 (73%)
LDem: 3098 (11%)
Oth: 951 (3%)
MAJ: 17380 (61%)
1997
Con: 5489 (16%)
Lab: 25180 (73%)
LDem: 2670 (8%)
Oth: 662 (2%)
MAJ: 19691 (57%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Brent South

Demographics
2015 Candidates
ALAN MENDOZA (Conservative) Born 1978. Educated at Cambridge University. Director of the Henry Jackson Society. Former Brent council.
DAWN BUTLER (Labour) Born 1969, Forest Gate. Former trade union officer. MP for Brent South 2005-2010. Contested Brent Central 2010.. PPS to Jane Kennedy 2005-2006. Government whip 2008-2009. Minister for Young citizens 2009-2010.
LAUREN KEITH (Liberal Democrat) Educated at St Andrews University. PR manager.
STEPHEN PRIESTLEY (UKIP)
SHAHRAR ALI (Green) Educated at UCL. Academic. Contested Brent East 2005, Brent Central 2010. Elected Deputy leader of the Green party 2014.
KAMRAN MALIK (Communities United) Born 1967, East London. Lawyer. Contested West Ham 2010 as Independent, London region 2014 European elections.
NOEL COONAN (Independent)
JOHN BOYLE (TUSC)
Links
Comments - 774 Responses on “Brent Central”
  1. absolutely NO notice that should have read, of course.

  2. PAUL WAY – you say 54% of the 33 respondents chose LAB:

    But this cannot be true

    16 people would be 47%
    17 people would be 51%
    18 people would be 55%

    I am genuinely asking you to stop these tiny, pointless ‘polls’, you are I think on a wind up. I have little doubt you nicking the predictions from electionforecast.co.uk and tweaking them a bit.

    I will be messaging the moderator of this website and asking for your comments to be removed. However if we hear from Hector, I may alter my stance on this.

  3. When 2 or 3 people say they have narrowed it down to two parties then that is where 1% this way or that way comes into play, we the poll takers have to award half vote or a third of a vote in the case of a person narrowing their choice down to 3 parties but excluding all others, quite simple to work out really.

  4. I seem to remember there was a golfer called Paul Way. You could certainly predict the way his swing worked.

  5. haha, I quite like Paul Way, his uncle hector is a most amusing troll!

    Still better than the Djokovic fans on the tennis forum I frequent!

  6. Statement of those nominated

    Ali
    Shahrar
    (address in Brent Central)
    Green Party

    Boyle
    John
    59 Buckingham Road, Harlesden, London NW10 4RJ

    Trade Unionist and Socialist Coalition

    Butler
    Dawn
    (address in Brent Central)
    Labour Party

    Coonan
    Noel
    (address in Brent North)
    Independent

    Keith
    Lauren Patricia
    Liberal Democrat

    Malik
    Kamran

    Communities United Party
    

  7. Lab gain 9000. No chance even had Teather re-stood.

  8. I think Teather would have retained this, despite some dodgy votes in parliament because she wasn’t Butler. If the party had stood by her for some of her principled stands then they would have done better. It’s notable that they threw Taguri out to sea despite senior members of the Liberal’s on a Channel Four Dispatches for also soliciting donations for influence.

  9. LAB GAIN

    LAB – 55
    LD – 27
    CON – 9
    O – 9

  10. Teather would have stood no chance even against Butler, even though she is a doughty fighter. But that’s irrelevant now.

  11. Labour by 12000. LD’s still in 2nd. May be even worse.

  12. Oops predicted this one twice. Last prediction is my ‘official’ one.

  13. A week to go, and here in the constituency we have heard zilch from the LibDems since the demise of Mr Taguri. I had to dig a bit to even find the replacement on the web. Think the LibDems have given up on this one.

    On his last leaflet, Taguri said “I am not a career politician…”. Just as well, then.

  14. Lauren Keith’s mailshot arrived here Friday afternoon. Hardly earth-shattering, but still, something at least.

  15. LibDems have given up here. With Taguri they were working hard and putting up a decent fight but the handful of activists they have left in the constituency are now spending the bulk of their time in Hornsey and Wood Green trying to save Lynne Featherstone’s seat. Even Taguri’s campaign organiser has abandoned Brent Central and gone over to work for Lynne.

    Lauren Keith, for her part, has performed abysmally in hustings. Telling us she’s not a polished politician is one thing, having little presence, stumbling and mumbling and knowing very little about issues other than a few LibDem headline achievements is quite another.

  16. Labour: 54%
    Con: 20%
    Greens: 11%
    Lib Dem 11 % (but 4th, Just)
    Others: 4%

    I place Lib Dem 4th based upon
    i) national picture
    ii) Sarah Teather standing down
    III) Ibrahim Taguri standing down
    iv) National profile of Green Candidate
    v) No Lib Dem ‘winning here’ placards
    vi) Strangely, lots of Green posters in windows
    vii) Lots of Green activism visible, leaflets, stalls, campaigning.
    vii) zero Lib Dem activism visible. The few that I have see around are not from Brent and they were only around during the Ibrahim Taguri tenure.

  17. LAB gain by over 10000

  18. Labour Gain. 10,000 maj

  19. Dawn Butler wins, with a near 20,000 majority. Lib Dems down to third.

  20. This must be one of the few seats where an Ashcroft seat poll underestimated Labour. Another one was that Labour were much closer to taking Croydon central than last week polls. Anyone know any others?

  21. Ashcroft said the LDs would hold Cambridge by 39% to Labour’s 31%.

  22. So in the end Dawn Butler absolutely romped home here, and Brent Central has now returned to its natural safe Labour guise once again.

  23. Decent performance (relative to the seat) for the Conservatives.

  24. Now that Corbyn is labour leader no Lab seat is safe. I expect this to return to its natural Libdem home

  25. Sure, the Lib Dems are really going to come back from 8% even with Corbyn at the helm of Labour.

    I’d say that there are Labour seats at risk, but this won’t be one of them.

  26. Cllr Dan Filson, member for Kensal Green ward, has sadly died. Only a month ago he spoke and was a pretty ubiquitous presence at Labour Party conference, so this news is a real shock.
    l see nothing has changed on the site in my absence – l love the idea that this constituency has a “natural Lib Dem home”. Yes – that’s why it has been Labour-held in its various guises for all but 5 years since WWII, and l think even in 1935 as Willesden West.

  27. Difficult to believe the LDs only got twice as many votes as UKIP in a seat they held previously and in one of UKIP’s worst areas in the country. Or perhaps not difficult to believe.

  28. Maybe if Sarah Teather defended the seat, the Lib Dems might not have shed that many votes. Perhaps they’d have finished in 2nd, albeit a very distant one. Plus there were candidate issues as they replaced their original one. Not to mention the dire national polling of course.

  29. Seeing as Dawn Butler is both a carpetbagger and an expenses cheat, I’m surprised the swing to Labour was that high.

  30. I think Teather would have held second.
    1. The LD vote here was essentially personal for her
    2. She essentially disowned the party when she stepped down
    3. Ibrahim Taguri was forced to step down due to a sleaze controversy
    4. The eventual PPC was put in place at an extremely late stage
    5. The seat received no resources, but probably would have if it had a sitting MP

    This was always going to be a loss by a large margin, but it is fair to say that circumstances could hardly have been worse from a LD perspective!

    As an aside, Sarah Teather’s electoral record is absolutely astounding.

  31. Does Teather still live in the constituency?

  32. Easy win for the Labour Party in the Kensal Green by-election (see above) but a decent performance by the LDs who went up by about 15%. Stupendous momentum!

  33. That was a truly stupendous result. I think the Lib Dems can get from 8% to about 45% just in time.
    I’ve been unable to get totally up to date because I was desperately calling out for paper but people just left me there.
    Need to get good council results aswell, and win Hornsey and Wood Green back too.

  34. This result is still gobsmacking. More than anything probably reflects how good Sarah Teather’s 2010 result was. Also note the Tory vote doubled (the Hindu vote in Neasden?).

  35. The Tory vote is not much greater than the level of the Tory vote in Brent South in 1997.

    Boundary changes making the seat less Labour (Brent South being the base) but demographic change making the constituency more Labour must cancel each other out.

    So the level if Conservative vote is not that remarkable in a year when a Conservative government was returned compared to the worst ever Conservative defeat since WW2.

  36. Tory increase is surely mostly due to tactical unwinding.

  37. Definitely, Simon, and the same can be said for Streatham as well where the once considerable Lib Dem vote unwound considerably.

  38. Quite unusual for tactical unwind to happen so quickly… voters must have got a sense that the LDs were nowhere near holding this.

  39. Not surprising – this was perhaps the most unlikely hold in the entire country.

    On a separate note I have noticed that several national sports stadia were in Lib Dem seats in 2010 – Wembley (Brent East), Twickenham, Millennium Stadium (Cardiff Central), Murrayfield (Edinburgh West). It’s somewhat symbolic of their collapse that the Lib Dems no longer hold any of these seats.

  40. There was a ‘Rishi Saha’ on the News.

    I think it said he was head of Policy at Facebook. They were questioning him about why Facebook hadn’t removed suggestive pics of children and schoolgirl groups.

    Wasn’t he a Tory PPC here previously?

  41. Dawn Butler has been named as the new shadow minister for black and minority ethnic (BAME) communities.

  42. Which is now a shadow cabinet post ( also confirming it seems no return for any of the BAME resigners). Suspect fewer than expected have returned.

  43. Another one of Labour’s great talents promoted!

  44. Guardian points that this is now the most ethnically diverse front bench in British political history.

  45. Probably not unrelated to the fact that it is also so London-centric. It is interesting that London MPs seem to be more Corbyn-friendly, when the London CLPs were noticeably more likely to nominate Owen Smith in the leadership contest.

  46. I don’t think this London-centricity will help Labour at all. It is only reinforcing the negatives many ordinary voters see in them.

  47. Yes. Corbyn seems determined to reinforce the electorate’s stereotypes of his leadership of the party rather than play them down or challenge them.

    Appointing so much of his top team from a tiny clique of inner London MPs reduces Labour’s room for manoeuvre massively. Recruiting the party’s Brexit spokesman from Euro-loving Holborn & St Pancras basically eliminates any chance of Labour coming up with an opportunistic response to Brexit, criticising freedom of movement etc, to try to capitalise on UKIP’s demise. A Burnham type figure with a WWC northern seat would not be so constrained by constituency pressure. Ditto Abbott with immigration/terrorism.

  48. Can I just say as well that the creation of “shadow minister for black and ethnic minority communities” is pretty disgraceful. I really do hope the government aren’t pressganged into turning this into a government department. If they created a minister for white communities the heckles of “fascists” and “apartheid” from the left would be deafening. These days plenty of people from minority backgrounds are leading highly successful lives off their own efforts and view this kind of thing as highly patronising and more likely to reinforce a second class status than eliminate it.

  49. I think this was only created to give Dawn Butler a shadow cabinet post with some of corbyn’s creations from last year dropped ( i expect shadow mental health to return through. he did confirm it during the conference)

  50. May, a traditionalist in government, is very unlikely to appoint a minister for black and ethnic minority communities.

    This whole shadow cabinet feels like a 1980s “loony left” political tribute band…labour veering off onto a desert island of irrelevance. Sad for those who care about a reasonably functioning opposition.

    It’s very london-centric. God knows how a shadow cabinet of this type makes labour competitive in the midlands or scotland, come to think of it. We are looking at a long period of Conservative dominance.

    The party will be much more difficult to dislodge, since labour has to fight the SNP in Scotland. A world where labour has more seats in the house of commons than any other party seems implausibly remote. It will happen, but could take a long time. In many ways, labour are where they are in the 1983 to 1987 parliament.

Leave a Reply

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)