Brent Central

2015 Result:
Conservative: 9567 (20.3%)
Labour: 29216 (62.1%)
Lib Dem: 3937 (8.4%)
Green: 1912 (4.1%)
UKIP: 1850 (3.9%)
TUSC: 235 (0.5%)
Independent: 145 (0.3%)
Others: 170 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 19649 (41.8%)

Category: Safe Labour seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of the Brent council area.

Main population centres: Willesden, Neasden, Kensal Green, Cricklewood, Harlesden.

Profile: A diverse residential seat that is home to many immigrant communities. There are traditionally strong links to Ireland in Willesden, Harlesden and Stonebridge are largely Afro-carribean, Neasden has a large Asian population and is the site of the immense Hindu temple, BAPS Shri Swaminarayan Mandir, at the time of its building in 1996 the largest outside India. The seat also contains Wembley Stadium and the huge Park Royal Industrial estate, which employs 35000 people, particularly in food manufacture.

Politics: This was one of only two seats to be fought by two sitting MPs in the 2010 general election (the other being Poplar and Limehouse). In this case Sarah Teather, the MP for the abolished Brent East seat chose to stand against the Labour incumbent of Brent South, Dawn Butler, rather than contest the Hampstead and Kilburn seat which on paper appeared to be a better chance for the Liberal Democrats. In the event Teather`s gamble paid off - she won Brent Central while Labour held Hampstead and Kilburn. Dawn Butler regained the seat in 2015 on a huge swing, Sarah Teather having stood down.


Current MP
DAWN BUTLER (Labour) Born 1969, Forest Gate. Former trade union officer. MP for Brent South 2005-2010. Contested Brent Central 2010.. First elected as MP for Brent Central in 2015. PPS to Jane Kennedy 2005-2006. Government whip 2008-2009. Minister for Young citizens 2009-2010.
Past Results
2010
Con: 5067 (11%)
Lab: 18681 (41%)
LDem: 20026 (44%)
GRN: 668 (1%)
Oth: 881 (2%)
MAJ: 1345 (3%)
2005*
Con: 4485 (15%)
Lab: 17501 (59%)
LDem: 6175 (21%)
GRN: 957 (3%)
Oth: 646 (2%)
MAJ: 11326 (38%)
2001
Con: 3604 (13%)
Lab: 20984 (73%)
LDem: 3098 (11%)
Oth: 951 (3%)
MAJ: 17380 (61%)
1997
Con: 5489 (16%)
Lab: 25180 (73%)
LDem: 2670 (8%)
Oth: 662 (2%)
MAJ: 19691 (57%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Brent South

Demographics
2015 Candidates
ALAN MENDOZA (Conservative) Born 1978. Educated at Cambridge University. Director of the Henry Jackson Society. Former Brent council.
DAWN BUTLER (Labour) Born 1969, Forest Gate. Former trade union officer. MP for Brent South 2005-2010. Contested Brent Central 2010.. PPS to Jane Kennedy 2005-2006. Government whip 2008-2009. Minister for Young citizens 2009-2010.
LAUREN KEITH (Liberal Democrat) Educated at St Andrews University. PR manager.
STEPHEN PRIESTLEY (UKIP)
SHAHRAR ALI (Green) Educated at UCL. Academic. Contested Brent East 2005, Brent Central 2010. Elected Deputy leader of the Green party 2014.
KAMRAN MALIK (Communities United) Born 1967, East London. Lawyer. Contested West Ham 2010 as Independent, London region 2014 European elections.
NOEL COONAN (Independent)
JOHN BOYLE (TUSC)
Links
Comments - 774 Responses on “Brent Central”
  1. It was a courtesy title. He hadn’t yet inherited the peerage to disqualify him from the commons. Of course you forget everything has changed re hereditary peers. Viscount Thurso is a member of the House of Commons. So during the last parliament was Douglas Hogg after he became viscount hailsham.

  2. John Boyle has been selected as the TUSC prospective parliamentary candidate for Brent central.

  3. Has President Obama announced his support for Dawn Butler yet ?

  4. I recall Lord James Douglas – Hamilton (brother of The Duke of Hamilton) was an MP in Edinburgh West from 1979 to 1997.

    his title was a courtesy title. It didn’t give him seat in the lords…younger sons of dukes and marquesses are called lord jimmy such and such.

  5. exactly. Richard Needham, Tory MP for Chippenham/N Wilts from 1979 to 1992, was also a Lord but was able to sit in the house. Perhaps he’s an Irish peer.

  6. Douglas-Hamilton was first elected in 1974 I think.

  7. @Richard
    Not yet, but rumour has it that Frank Underwood may announce his support for Dawn.

  8. Ibrahim Taguri has stood down as the Lib Dem candidate and now says he will be standing as an Independent after allegations made against him by the The Daily Telegraph.

    Doubt it will help much. Lost deposit.

  9. Butler/Labour must be laughing their heads off today! I thought this may be acshock Lib Dem hold but now after this Lib Dem fiasco associated with their candidate here I’m certain Labour will gain this seat.

  10. Labour gain all the way.

  11. It was already pretty much a fait accompli in my honest opinion once Sarah Teather announced her decision to stand down-she is the only reason the Liberal Democrats ever won Brent Central, or its predecessor, Brent East, in the first place.

  12. Lib Dems should thank god that this hasn’t occured in a place like Bristol West or even Hornsey which are much better chances of defence than this seat ever was. Labour gain with a 20% margin.

  13. Agreed with all. Dawn Butler will coast back into the Commons after all this now without a shadow of a doubt.

  14. Barnaby

    According to my dog-eared copy of the 5th edition of “The Almanac of British Politics”, Richard Needham was the 6th Earl of Kilmorey and was – when elected in 1979 – the first Irish peer to sit in the Commons since Earl Winterton who represented Horsham for much of the 1st half of the 20th century.

  15. Irish peers could sit in the house of commons, viz. viscount palmerston.

  16. Dawn Butler is being slated in the papers for her expenses scandal in the same breath as Ibrahim Taguri. This could be wide open.

  17. Not really D Alex. The 2010 result was exceptional and what made it exceptional was Sarah Teathers ability to reach voters which other Lib Dem candidates cannot. As soon as she decided to stand down a Labour gain was odds on, even with candidate as obsessed with purchasing bathrooms at taxpayers expense as Ms Butler.

  18. why has she been reslected (Butler) if she is such a toxic brand?

  19. Parties often select candidates who aren’t the best on offer just to show they can do what they like.

  20. I’m pretty confident that this will be a Labour gain, but don’t discount parties similar to the Greens from making a strong performance in areas like Willesden, Neasden, Kensal Green, Cricklewood, Harlesden. which are big population centers in this historic constituency.

  21. The person who was up against Dawn for selection made suggestions that pressure was put on the labour group membership.

  22. did l gather that lbrahim taguri has resigned as lib dem candidate? who knows, they may try & persuade teather to rescind her retirement. that would make it a more interesting contest but l still think she’d lose pretty comfortably.

  23. Teather should really have stood in Hampstead and Kilburn in 2010 if she wanted to remain as an MP in the long term. But even then she’d still have an uphill struggle.

  24. It wouldn’t have made much difference. Going into coalition with the Toies would have cost them Hampstead & Kilburn if they had won there in 2010. Anyway, I guess when Teather had to choose where to jump, she didn’t know that she’d be in coalition with the Tories. Without that, I think she’d have ended up nicely ensconced here.

  25. Butler played very much to the left gallery on her selection and has continued to do so in her campaign. From what I’ve heard about the actual selection her opponent won the argument and the vote on the day but Butler sneaked through on postal votes.

    Taguri has run a good campaign up until now. He comes across as likeable and genuine and has been at pains to identify himself as an independent voice who will rebel where necessary – a smart move as people respected Teather’s approach to this. He’s also wisely downplayed the LibDem brand within his campaign.

    His decision to stand as an independent needs to be seen in this light. He says he’s looking forward to clearing his name and rejoining the LibDems but if he stands against an official LibDem candidate surely he will be expelled?

    Either:

    1. he thinks the inquiry will be over quickly, clear him, and he can resume the campaign as a LibDem (albeit semi-detached) within a matter of weeks
    2. He has realised he won’t be cleared and thinks his ‘personal brand’ is strong enough to continue

    Personally I’m not sure that ‘dodgy donations’ to a party resonates with the electorate in the same way as an individual MP claiming ‘dodgy expenses’. I think the Greens will do well out of this but Butler will still sweep this comfortably, strange as it is.

  26. Bit surprised the Telegraph made such a big issue over this. It will mean Labour more likely to win comfortably (they were always going to win) and can deploy resources elsewhere, arguably reducing the prospect of another Tory-led government

  27. I agree the Greens should do well out of the problems that both the Lab and LD candidates have allegedly been experiencing.

  28. Is Ibrahim Taguri really standing as an independent? Is there not another Libdem yet?

  29. No sign of Taguri’s “independent” candidacy since this story broke, nor of any alternative LibDem candidate. Hearing that the sole LibDem councillor in Brent, Helen Carr, is a possible replacement candidate but likely to be declared only just before close of nominations on 20th April. Lots of confused anti-Butler votes wondering where to go…

  30. Close of nominations is 9th April. 20th April is the deadline for voter registration.

  31. there won’t be enough anti-butler votes no matter how they split

  32. The Liberal Democrat Candidate for Barking Lauren Keith has been selected for Brent Central. selected. http://www.kilburntimes.co.uk/home/election-2015/willesden_campaigner_selected_as_lib_dem_candidate_for_brent_central_1_4012622

    The Labour Candidate Dawn Butler is counting chickens.http://www.kilburntimes.co.uk/home/election-2015/will_it_be_a_new_dawn_for_labour_in_brent_central_1_4013341

  33. It’s now confirmed that Lauren Keith will replace Ibrahim Taguri as the LibDem candidate in this seat. Keith lives in Kilburn (just outside the Brent Central constituency but still in LBBrent) and stood unsuccessfully in the Mapesbury ward at last years local elections. She lost out to Taguri at the original LibDem selection meeting. She was selected as the LibDem candidate for Barking recently, so her decision to switch now leaves them without a candidate.

  34. Are you allowed to swap seats like that? Labour ban it

  35. Ibrahim Taguri is NOT standing as an independent according to a comment on this blog
    http://wembleymatters.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/lib-dems-select-lauren-keith-to-fight.html?m=1

  36. I have not looked at this thread for ages, so can I point out that John Thurso, the third Viscount Thurso (grandson of the Liberal leader during the Second World War) , was MP for Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross until the dissolution last week. A peer can be an MP unless he or she is elected to sit in the House of Lords.

    How is the Green campaign doing here? The candidate is their Deputy Leader nationally and I find it surprising that he is not given a higher profile. He is one of several professional Philosophers to be an active Green Party member.

  37. The Green campaign is present but not terribly active as Shahrar Ali seems to be focusing more on his deputy leader responsibilities rather than on Brent Central. A shame as the Greens did well in the locals last year and there is potential in this seat as it’s generally left-leaning while being frustrated at the actions of its Labour Council.

    I rather suspect that Dr Ali may well end up as the next leader of the Green Party.

  38. Michael Ancram was The Earl of Ancram (MP for Berwick & East Lothian, Edinburgh South and Devizes) and the Earl of Dalkeith was MP for Edinburgh North.

  39. And the relevance of this to Brent Central is what exactly?

  40. That will be in response to Frederic Stansfield’s comment I think.

  41. AKMD
    You could well ask that question of hundreds of comments: What relevance have they to the specific constituency. You can go to any constituency on this website in order to find out more about that constituency and discover that the comments have wandered off the constituency altogether. That seems to be a feature of most (all?) blogs. It’s amazing how quickly the comments deviate from the subject actually being posted.

  42. That’s very true but Dalek keeps posting all sorts of irrelevant nonsense on these constituency pages and it’s getting very tiresome now.

  43. I do it a lot myself AKMD LOL.

  44. I contacted my uncle Hector who lives in this seat to carry out a straw poll for me last week, here are the results;
    LAB———-54%
    LD————27%
    CON———10%
    GREEN—–3%
    UKIP———3%
    OTHERS—-3%
    I can’t be certain of this straw poll as I got my uncle to carry it out for me but in 2010 he did 3 straw polls for me and they were all very accurate all within 1.5% of real result

  45. Can’t you get Hector to sign up to UKPR and give us some meat on this rather thin carcass? (I.E sample size, methods, date….etc)

  46. Sample of 33 voters who live in Brent Central, he did ask another 9 voters who would not answer, but 33 people did, election night will prove how right or wrong my and Hectors straw polling will be, I bet it will almost a carbon copy of the real result.

  47. You’re not A Brown by any chance?

  48. To be fair, Alexander Brown for all his weirdness towards the end of his sojourn in these pages did actually take notice of real polls.
    It’s interesting how the trolling fraternity take absolutely notice of anything anyone says to them in reply. They just keep banging on with their unadulterated crap. The only exception to this seems to be D.Alex, who does sometimes attempt to justify his tortured logic when he is criticised.
    For the record, l fully expect Labour to gain Brent Central by a factor of more than 2 to 1.
    Finally, some of you may have noticed that my typing has more conventional results now, with capitals where they should be, etc. I’ve now bought a new computer which works properly 🙂

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