Brent Central

2015 Result:
Conservative: 9567 (20.3%)
Labour: 29216 (62.1%)
Lib Dem: 3937 (8.4%)
Green: 1912 (4.1%)
UKIP: 1850 (3.9%)
TUSC: 235 (0.5%)
Independent: 145 (0.3%)
Others: 170 (0.4%)
MAJORITY: 19649 (41.8%)

Category: Safe Labour seat

Geography: Greater London. Part of the Brent council area.

Main population centres: Willesden, Neasden, Kensal Green, Cricklewood, Harlesden.

Profile: A diverse residential seat that is home to many immigrant communities. There are traditionally strong links to Ireland in Willesden, Harlesden and Stonebridge are largely Afro-carribean, Neasden has a large Asian population and is the site of the immense Hindu temple, BAPS Shri Swaminarayan Mandir, at the time of its building in 1996 the largest outside India. The seat also contains Wembley Stadium and the huge Park Royal Industrial estate, which employs 35000 people, particularly in food manufacture.

Politics: This was one of only two seats to be fought by two sitting MPs in the 2010 general election (the other being Poplar and Limehouse). In this case Sarah Teather, the MP for the abolished Brent East seat chose to stand against the Labour incumbent of Brent South, Dawn Butler, rather than contest the Hampstead and Kilburn seat which on paper appeared to be a better chance for the Liberal Democrats. In the event Teather`s gamble paid off - she won Brent Central while Labour held Hampstead and Kilburn. Dawn Butler regained the seat in 2015 on a huge swing, Sarah Teather having stood down.


Current MP
DAWN BUTLER (Labour) Born 1969, Forest Gate. Former trade union officer. MP for Brent South 2005-2010. Contested Brent Central 2010.. First elected as MP for Brent Central in 2015. PPS to Jane Kennedy 2005-2006. Government whip 2008-2009. Minister for Young citizens 2009-2010.
Past Results
2010
Con: 5067 (11%)
Lab: 18681 (41%)
LDem: 20026 (44%)
GRN: 668 (1%)
Oth: 881 (2%)
MAJ: 1345 (3%)
2005*
Con: 4485 (15%)
Lab: 17501 (59%)
LDem: 6175 (21%)
GRN: 957 (3%)
Oth: 646 (2%)
MAJ: 11326 (38%)
2001
Con: 3604 (13%)
Lab: 20984 (73%)
LDem: 3098 (11%)
Oth: 951 (3%)
MAJ: 17380 (61%)
1997
Con: 5489 (16%)
Lab: 25180 (73%)
LDem: 2670 (8%)
Oth: 662 (2%)
MAJ: 19691 (57%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Brent South

Demographics
2015 Candidates
ALAN MENDOZA (Conservative) Born 1978. Educated at Cambridge University. Director of the Henry Jackson Society. Former Brent council.
DAWN BUTLER (Labour) Born 1969, Forest Gate. Former trade union officer. MP for Brent South 2005-2010. Contested Brent Central 2010.. PPS to Jane Kennedy 2005-2006. Government whip 2008-2009. Minister for Young citizens 2009-2010.
LAUREN KEITH (Liberal Democrat) Educated at St Andrews University. PR manager.
STEPHEN PRIESTLEY (UKIP)
SHAHRAR ALI (Green) Educated at UCL. Academic. Contested Brent East 2005, Brent Central 2010. Elected Deputy leader of the Green party 2014.
KAMRAN MALIK (Communities United) Born 1967, East London. Lawyer. Contested West Ham 2010 as Independent, London region 2014 European elections.
NOEL COONAN (Independent)
JOHN BOYLE (TUSC)
Links
Comments - 774 Responses on “Brent Central”
  1. May, a traditionalist in government, is very unlikely to appoint a minister for black and ethnic minority communities.

    This whole shadow cabinet feels like a 1980s “loony left” political tribute band…labour veering off onto a desert island of irrelevance. Sad for those who care about a reasonably functioning opposition.

    It’s very london-centric. God knows how a shadow cabinet of this type makes labour competitive in the midlands or scotland, come to think of it. We are looking at a long period of Conservative dominance.

    The party will be much more difficult to dislodge, since labour has to fight the SNP in Scotland. A world where labour has more seats in the house of commons than any other party seems implausibly remote. It will happen, but could take a long time. In many ways, labour are where they are in the 1983 to 1987 parliament.

  2. “It’s very london-centric”

    A clear minority are London MP’s
    Also as opposed to the Tories home counties galore cabinet?

  3. Rivers10

    Pretty daft remark about tories home counties. It is not the tories who have problems with their grass roots. It’s labour who traditionally have been strong in the north who needs to reconnect with those voters, before we talk about scotland, where labour’s strong parliamentary representation was effectively annhilated.

    Labour is the party which needs to reconnect desperately with its roots. So a tory cabinet centred on the south east is neither here nor there.

  4. I wouldn’t argue with that but re Scotland its kinda difficult to appoint a Scottish heavy cabinet in the hope of reconnecting with Scotland when as you say we only have one Scottish MP.

    As for the North/Midlands this si true but I dispute the notion its London centric, as I said the clear minority are London MP’s. If your talking specifically about the four great offices of state then fair dues but as I stated in the Hackney North thread I believe Abbott is a temporary strategic move.

  5. Guido Fawkes has been good at pointing this out. even though i accept he is totally hostile to labour…

    But, just looking at shadow cabinet positions, i.e people shadowing sec. of state level ministers

    Kate Osamor Edmondon Dfid
    Diane Abbot Hackney North Home Affairs
    Emily Thornberry Islington South Foreign Affairs
    Keir Starmer Holborn Brexit
    Stephen Pound Ealing North Northern Ireland
    Barry Gardiner Brent North International Trade
    John Mcdonnell Hayes & Harlington Treasury

    and of course

    Corbyn himself…

    since Dawn Butler is essentially a minister for a new portfolio it is unclear whether she is a shadow cabinet member or not. for the sake of fairness I am not including her in this. I am not sure who is shadowing DCLG

    I make that 8. given that there are, I think, 22 or so secretaries of state running departments (not incl. chancellor of the duchy of lancaster etc.) more than a third from london is impressive, way out of proportion to the seats labour hold even now. labour have 232 seats, a third of which is 77…labour have nowhere near 77 seats in greater london. in fact, they have 45, which is about 19% of the labour seats.

    This is simple arithmetic. London is overrepresented…hate to be pedantic, but sometimes one has to get one’s calculator out to demonstrate some very simple and, to many, obvious home truths.

  6. From the announcement of 5 BAME members of the shadow cabinet i believe Dawn Butler is a member of the shadow cabinet.
    Since when had Stephen Pound been shadow Northern Ireland?

  7. When did Stephen Pound get NI, last I saw David Anderson still had it?

    But still this hardly compares badly to the Tories, 12 members of the Tory shadow cabinet represent seats in the home counties. Add in that a further 4 represent seats that are either Southern but not technically home counties (Truss in Norfolk SW or Fox in Somerset NW) or basically in the South (Leadsom in Northamptonshire South or Wright in Kenilworth and Southam) and that a further 3 represent London seats we see that the Tories have a massively Southern centric cabinet and have massively underrepresented the North where the Tories 44 MP’s are represented by just one cabinet member for a Northern seat, David Davis in Haltemprice.

    Basically Lab can’t legitimately be criticised for having a disjointed shadow cabinet if the Tories can get off Scott free with their own.

  8. Rivers10,

    The tories, as i have said a gazillion times, are not the ones who have a problem connecting with their grass roots. Every tory cabinet since god was a boy has had a “southern” flavour…that’s where the strength of the party has been since probably about 1784.

    Your phrase “tory shadow cabinet” is an interesting Freudian slip. There is nothing “shadow” about the tory cabinet.

    You started off saying that london wasn’t overrepresented. then when this was demonstrated arithmetically, you then say, like a child caught with his hand in the cookie jar, “oh the tories are just as bad”.

    labour are facing their worst crisis in 30 years, and all you can say is, “the tories are doing just as badly”…they are, for the millionth time, not the ones with the problem.

  9. He’s just a nipper Peter, you need to be indulgent.

  10. @Peter. Very well said. The Tory base in the North e.g in North Yorkshire, rural/suburban Cheshire etc. largely does not feel neglected by their party despite the main politicians being based in the South. This is largely because the demographics of the Tory base in the North is very similar to that of the Tory base in the South except the Southern base is obviously much larger.

    For Labour it is a different story their Northern/Welsh Valleys WWC feel completely alienated from the party politically and culturally who are based primarily in London/other main population centres with a metropolitan outlook. This is a very serious problem for labour as these WWC places are probably now extremely vulnerable to populism and if god forbid the English version of the Front National ever surges to prominence these places would be amongst their strongest in the country and Labour would be under serious threat and would effectively finish Labour as a political force in the process. Some not very cheery food for thought but this should be the thing that keeps Labour supporters up at night though at the moment most (and certainly the leadership) don’t seem at all concerned.

  11. Issint UKIP the english version of the front national? Front national is a bit more extreme but there is not a great differences. Obviously the front national in 2002 was much more extreme but it claims to have moderated now.

  12. It is worth pointing out that most Labour MPs for WWC northern/midlands/Wales seats are taken from the same metropolitan elite as their London MPs – partly a result of Labour HQ plonking the likes of Tristam Hunt in safe seats with no concern for how well the candidate fitted the constituents. Sure, some genuinely working-class Labour MPs still exist – Dennis Skinner, Steve Rotherham, John Mann – but they are very much in a minority.

    So “London-centric” is really a misnomer – what people mean is “metropolitan” – and exactly how many MPs represent London seats is a little bit of a red herring.

  13. @BM11 the Front National is much more openly racist than UKIP see for example their statements on Muslims. While you might get this from some UKIP members you don’t get it from the leadership. Plus UKIP has probably too many links to the Tories and it’s politicians are definitely centre-right economically so it limits their appeal in these WWC places. The Front National in the other hand is very xenophobic but is very populist economically with no links to the French centre right UMP/the Republicans. Their kind of brand is much more appealing to the angry, alienated WWC Labour/Socialist voters than UKIP could ever be. Unfortunately there is an huge opening in the electoral market in this country for a xenophobic economically centre left party with fascist tendencies. If nothing is done to rectify some of the grievances especially by Labour I believe it’s only a matter of time.

  14. I see that Sarah Teather now represents the ‘Jesuits in Britain’ after working for them in Rome.

    I think perhaps only Lembit Opik (variously performing on cruise ships and now on Russia Today) can match her for strange things ex-MPs do.

    Maybe it’s just a Lib Dem thing?

  15. Dawn Butler and Rachael Maskell have resigned from Labour’s front bench apparently. Will Corbyn have enough MPs to replace the four resignations that have happened so far?

  16. Dawn Butler was on PM on Radio 4 this afternoon, expanding on the points Jeremy Corbyn made in his speech. Good lord, was it a car-crash of an interview. Shame because the speech itself was unexpectedly good.

  17. Lancs:

    Teather is actually director of Jesuit Refugee Services. So not strange, and consistent with one of her interests when a politician.

  18. The Dawn Butler interview:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-39659304

    A text book example of how to loose votes.

  19. She’s pretty hopeless. Still, a nice straightforward hold for her here on 8 June…many of her more talented colleagues cannot say the same.

  20. Dawn Butler wanted Andy Burnham to win even though she nominated Jeremy Corbyn for leadership.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2fp_GoKhRT0

  21. This is a natural LD seat which Corbyn’s looneyleft platform will help come home to the yellows

  22. Dawn B is fluent in sign language. #funfact

  23. As am I #FunFact

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