Brecon & Radnorshire

2015 Result:
Conservative: 16453 (41.1%)
Labour: 5904 (14.7%)
Lib Dem: 11351 (28.3%)
Plaid Cymru: 1767 (4.4%)
Green: 1261 (3.1%)
UKIP: 3338 (8.3%)
MAJORITY: 5102 (12.7%)

Category: Semi-marginal Conservative seat

Geography: Wales, Powys. Part of Powys council area.

Main population centres: Brecon, Builth Wells, Llanwrtyd Wells, Ystradgynlais, Hay-on-Wye.

Profile: The largest seat in Wales geographically, Brecon and Radnorshire covers most of the historic counties of Radnorshire and Brecknockshire. It is an isolated rural seat with difficult communications, made up largely of mountains and forest. It includes the Cambrian mountains, Black Mountains and Brecon Beacons national park. The main industries are tourism and sheep farming. Towns includes Brecon, Builth Wells, Llanwrtyd Wells, one of the smallest towns in the UK and the site of the annual bog snorkling championships, Ystradgynlais, an industrial town at the far South of the constituency and Hay-on-Wye on the English border.

Politics: In the 1950s and 60s this was a reliable Labour seat but in more recent times it has been a marginal between the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats..


Current MP
CHRIS DAVIES (Conservative) Former veterinary practice manager and auctioneer. Powys councillor since 2012. Contested Brecon and Radnorshire 2011 Welsh Assembly election. First elected as MP for Brecon & Radnorshire in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 14182 (37%)
Lab: 4096 (11%)
LDem: 17929 (46%)
PC: 989 (3%)
Oth: 1649 (4%)
MAJ: 3747 (10%)
2005
Con: 13277 (35%)
Lab: 5755 (15%)
LDem: 17182 (45%)
PC: 1404 (4%)
Oth: 723 (2%)
MAJ: 3905 (10%)
2001
Con: 13073 (35%)
Lab: 8024 (21%)
LDem: 13824 (37%)
PC: 1301 (3%)
Oth: 1294 (3%)
MAJ: 751 (2%)
1997
Con: 12419 (29%)
Lab: 11424 (27%)
LDem: 17516 (41%)
PC: 622 (1%)
Oth: 900 (2%)
MAJ: 5097 (12%)

Demographics
2015 Candidates
CHRIS DAVIES (Conservative) Veterinary practice manager and former auctioneer. Powys councillor since 2012. Contested Brecon and Radnorshire 2011 Welsh Assembly election.
MATTHEW DORRANCE (Labour) Born Brecon. Educated at Brecon High School and Swansea University. Political assistant and former mental health support worker. Powys councillor since 2012. Contested Mid and West Wales 2011.
ROGER WILLIAMS (Liberal Democrat) Born 1948, Crickhowell. Educated at Christ College School, Brecon and Cambridge University. Livestock farmer. Powys councillor 1981-2001. MP for Brecon and Radnorshire 2001 to 2015. A former Labour party member he joined the SDP in 1981.
DARRAN THOMAS (UKIP) Born 1966, Llandrindod Wells. Educated at Llandrindod High School. Forensic computer consultant.
CHRIS CARMICHAEL (Green) Educated at Open University. Postman.
FREDDY GREAVES (Plaid) Born Gladestry. Educated at Cambridge University. Local government officer.
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Comments - 266 Responses on “Brecon & Radnorshire”
  1. I think they is enough labour mp’s who would vote for no deal and hope it is not as bad as predicted or simply it keeps them their seat.

  2. I can think of 2

  3. I can think of up to 8-10 max, but that’s not enough as there are more than that number of Tories who had publicly said they will never support a no deal

  4. Hoey and De Piero have said that theyd support it. Who else?

  5. Presumably the dozen who voted with the Govt in a vote in the Spring (such as Bradley, Mann et al), as it won’t be voting ‘for No Deal’ [that’s simply time expiring], it’ll be voting for Brexit.

    Although a deal may still be reached and then I’d imagine you can double that number of Labour MPs voting with the Govt. Plus another dozen abstaining.

  6. So between us we’ve named 4. Double that plus a dozen abstaining you get about 20 that are supporting or sitting on their hands. There’s still more Tories that have voted with the opposition when its come to ruling out no deal or proroguing parliament

  7. Untrue (as I said a dozen plus 12 plus 12).

    Not that it may be relevant, as Cummings points out in the Telegraph today.

    Even a no confidence vote defeat in Sep wouldn’t now result in a GE prior to 31.10.19.

  8. Can you actually name these people

  9. Caroline Flint and Sarah Champion have said they would vote for no-deal, IIRC.

    A shame, too, they’re the sort of down-to-earth MPs I have always felt we have needed more of. I’m not sure it’s even that smart electorally, because it is pretty clear at this point that Farage and his cronies are unappeasable.

  10. I was in Brussels yesterday and it’s fair to say that the mood is one of gloomy resignation to a chaotic exit on October 31st.

    Two things struck me immediately. Firstly there is a universal loathing of Boris Johnson, amongst ordinary business people and the general public as well as those who work at the Commission. Secondly, everyone you speak to knows a huge amount about Johnson, to an absurd degree for a leader of another country. Time after time, business people bring up the “fuck business” comments which though intended for a domestic audience have done him a lot of damage overseas.

    May by contrast is viewed with sympathy, albeit a as a bit of a pathetic figure.

  11. Yes, Johnson is the most internationally famous/ infamous PM since Blair. I lived in Hong Kong for 10 years and he is reasonably well known there (even during his London mayor days).

  12. Blair was and still is liked and hugely respected worldwide, and envied in his early days. Boris is internationally famous primarily as an incompetent clown, like Berlusconi or Yeltsin in his latter years, I’m not sure that is very helpful for the UK and indeed I can’t think of any other British PM who has had that reputation overseas.

  13. Matt W – yes, as could you if you simply look up the Labour MPs who voted with the Govt on previous occasions.

  14. The Lib Dems are in non-aggression talks with Plaid. Both sides have said upfront that they’ll be exempting Ceredigion, though, for obvious reasons.

  15. Magnanimous of Plaid but I can’t see where such a deal would help them. Ynys Mon at a stretch. They’ve no prospect whatsoever of winning more than about 4 seats, most of which are pretty safe for them.

    From the Lib Dem side it will no doubt help them in Brecon, Montgomery and perhaps Cardiff Central, though in none of those places is Plaid’s support very significant. Beyond those three and Ceredigion, Wales is not rich pickings for the Lib Dems.

  16. ‘The Lib Dems are in non-aggression talks with Plaid’

    Interesting in that outside Cardiff, the Remain vote in Wales was strongest in Plaid-held seats of western Wales

    Whether that will translate into Lib Dem votes is somewhat doubtful, so it’s certainly worthwhile for both parties to engage in some sort of pact

    Such tactics are essential if Johnson is to be beaten, although I still think the fear of a Corbyn government will force some of Johnson’s detractors to vote for him through gritted teeth

    The question is how many

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