Bradford South

2015 Result:
Conservative: 9878 (26.3%)
Labour: 16328 (43.4%)
Lib Dem: 1094 (2.9%)
Green: 1243 (3.3%)
UKIP: 9057 (24.1%)
MAJORITY: 6450 (17.2%)

Category: Safe Labour seat

Geography: Yorkshire and the Humber, West Yorkshire. Part of Bradford council area.

Main population centres: Bradford, Tong, Queensbury.

Profile: This is mostly the southern fringe of Bradford, with the city centre proper divided between Bradford East and Bradford West. Lidget Green and Great Horton are more inner city Bradford, with terraced houses and a large Asian population but most of the rest of the seat is large deprived council estates to the south of the city like Buttershaw and Holme Wood. To the east the seat stretches out to cover the small rural village of Tong, while at the western end it encompasses the large village of Queensbury, a former mill village that has more recently been a pocket of BNP strength.

Politics: This has been a Labour seat since before the Second World War, though it was a marginal at the height of Tory support in the 1980s. There are some pockets of Tory support in places like Tong or some of the newer housing developments, but overall it is safely Labour.


Current MP
JUDITH CUMMINGS (Labour) First elected as MP for Bradford South in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 11060 (29%)
Lab: 15682 (41%)
LDem: 6948 (18%)
BNP: 2651 (7%)
Oth: 1654 (4%)
MAJ: 4622 (12%)
2005*
Con: 8787 (24%)
Lab: 17954 (49%)
LDem: 5334 (15%)
BNP: 2862 (8%)
Oth: 1668 (5%)
MAJ: 9167 (25%)
2001
Con: 9941 (28%)
Lab: 19603 (56%)
LDem: 3717 (11%)
UKIP: 783 (2%)
Oth: 1093 (3%)
MAJ: 9662 (27%)
1997
Con: 12622 (28%)
Lab: 25558 (57%)
LDem: 5093 (11%)
MAJ: 12936 (29%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
TANYA GRAHAM (Conservative)
JUDITH CUMMINGS (Labour)
ANDREW TEAR (Liberal Democrat)
JASON SMITH (UKIP)
ANDREW ROBINSON (Green)
Links
Comments - 25 Responses on “Bradford South”
  1. I think Labour would easily hold this. However I wonder if UKIP would gain second place here, ahead of the Conservatives and the LibDems.

  2. LAB HOLD MAJ: 22%
    LAB 46
    CON 24
    LD 13
    UKIP 11
    GRN 3
    OTH 3

  3. 2014 local election result across Bradford South:

    Lab 40.9%
    UKIP 32.6%
    Con 13.6%
    Lib 4%
    Brit Dem 1.4%
    Respect 0.7%

  4. I am told Labour shortlist is

    Adele Brown (daughter of former Bradford East MP Terry Rooney)
    Judith Cummins (Leeds Cllr, former Bradford Cllr, former agent for Chris Leslie)
    Susan Hinchcliffe (Bradford Cllr, from Windhill and Wrose waed in Shipley constituency)
    Michelle Swallow (Bradford Cllr, from Clayton and Fairweather Green in Bradford West constituency)

  5. Why no Asian females on the shortlist? An absolute disgrace.

  6. “Why no Asian females on the shortlist? An absolute disgrace.”

    No-one applied waiting for Bradford West AWS selection?

  7. Judith Cummins is the new Labour candidate.
    She’s a Cllr in Leeds and was runner up in Leeds East selection. In the past she has been a Cllr also in Bradford and acted as agent for Chris Leslie when he was MP for Shipley.

  8. UKIP man says that Bradford South is their most winnable seat in Yorkshire..

    http://politicalbookie.com/2014/12/01/no-bradford-south-is-not-ukips-most-winnable-seat-in-yorkshire/

  9. “Why no Asian females on the shortlist? An absolute disgrace.”

    Andy JS You really should get yourself acquainted with the demographics of a seat before making such comments. If you looked at the constituency boundaries here you would wonder what sort of gerrymander had been planned to create such an overwhelmingly white seat in Bradford.

    At least 2 wards elected BNP councillors in 2006, and in Queensbury at least two of those who were elected a BNP members during 2006-08, are still sitting as Independent councillors in Queensbury. In Tong ward in 2006 either “Hope not Hate” or the Labour Party concentrated on mobilising an over 80% vote from the less than 150 ethnic minority voters they identified on the ward electoral register. Those voters were more than the Labour candidates majority over the BNP that year.

    However painful it is to say this as an anti racist, you don’t put up candidates that you know will cost you significant numbers of votes, in places you want to win. Labour members in Bradford aren’t stupid, and anyone who wished to be an MP knew which of the three seats to contest to be the PPC, and which weren’t worth the time and effort. It’s just a shame that the shortlists are divided along almost apartheid style lines, but in does pretty much reflect the demographics of the Labour vote in the city.

  10. Labour Hold. 10,000 majority.

  11. Only just spotted the huge UKIP vote here in 2015.

    Wibsey Ward By-election Result:

    Labour 1,207
    UKIP 655
    Con 451
    LD. 70

  12. I think this seat will be won by the Tories this time around .Been a solid Base – 25-28% – for last 5 elections.

    There’s evidence – in national polling – that CON will gain from UKIP GE2015 switchers much more than LAB. There’ll be significant LAB – LD switchers and direct LAB-CON swtchers…CON to sneak it.

  13. Fair chance of Tory gain here but it will be tight either way.

  14. No chance at all of a Tory gain (this is my home seat). Even if they improve massively in Holmewood (Tong ward) and places like Royds, there is too much of the inner city (Great Horton) here that will provide enough Labour votes for them to hold it comfortably.

  15. FWIW…my partner works as a primary school teacher in Wibsey and coaches a junior football team in the seat too. Wibsey at least is actually solidly WWC and as such a complete contrast to the (prejudiced and narrow-minded) view that many outsiders take of Bradford as city. In a class of 35, my partner has only three non-white pupils.

    There will I suspect have been a large Leave vote in this seat, but the Labour tradition is probably sufficiently embedded to protect them here. Unless 8 June turns out to be as cataclysmic as some are predicting!

  16. Lab hold

    PS What was Leave vote here?

  17. Bradford on the whole voted 54% Leave.

  18. The 24% UKIP vote suggests the Leave vote was considerably higher than 54% in this seat.

    Hard to make predictions on these type of seats at the moment, whilst we don’t know whether post-Manchester the Cons are over their wobble or not.

  19. UKIP are standing here though; it remains to be seen how their vote changes between now and polling day.

    My postal vote arrived last night; filled in and sent back so that’s one vote cast in Bradford South!

  20. Shipley itself is fairly working class (though the seat also contains the semi-rural areas like Baildon) so I’d think the Shipley ward would have been fairly heavy for leave.

  21. ”I’d think the Shipley ward would have been fairly heavy for leave.”

    No it wasn’t it was quite strongly remain. Bradford council released ward results.

    Bradford East:
    Leave: 23,083 (55.2%)
    Remain: 18,766 (44.8%)

    Bradford South:
    Leave: 29,835 (63.6%)
    Remain: 17,104 (36.4%)

    Bradford West:
    Remain: 20,819 (53.3%)
    Leave: 18,271 (46.7%)

    Keighley:
    Leave: 25,892 (56.8%)
    Remain: 22,663 (43.2%)

    Shipley:
    Leave: 26,832 (51.5%)
    Remain: 25,223 (48.5%)

    Remain won: Bradford Moor, City, Great Horton, Heaton, Ilkley, Keighley Central, Little Horton, Manningham, Shipley, Toller, Wharfedale.

    Leave won: Baildon, Bingley, Bingley Rural, Bolton and Undercliffe, Bowling and Barkerend, Clayton and Fairweather Green, Craven, Eccleshill, Idle and Thckley, Keighley East, Keighley West, Queensbury, Royds, Thornton and Allerton, Tong, Wibsey, Windhill and Wrose, Worth Valley, Wyke.

  22. That surprises me; I’d have thought Bingley and Baildon would have been the more remain-friendly part of the seat but there we go

  23. I would have thought that East with its high student population would have been better for Remain.

Leave a Reply

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)