Bradford East

2015 Result:
Conservative: 4682 (11.3%)
Labour: 19312 (46.6%)
Lib Dem: 12228 (29.5%)
Green: 871 (2.1%)
UKIP: 4103 (9.9%)
Others: 210 (0.5%)
MAJORITY: 7084 (17.1%)

Category: Semi-marginal Labour seat

Geography: Yorkshire and the Humber, West Yorkshire.

Main population centres:

Profile:

Politics:


Current MP
IMRAN HUSSAIN (Labour) Born Bradford. Barrister. Bradford councillor. Contested Bradford West 2012 by-election. First elected as MP for Bradford East in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 10860 (27%)
Lab: 13272 (33%)
LDem: 13637 (34%)
BNP: 1854 (5%)
Oth: 834 (2%)
MAJ: 365 (1%)
2005*
Con: 5569 (16%)
Lab: 14622 (43%)
LDem: 11111 (32%)
BNP: 2061 (6%)
Oth: 1034 (3%)
MAJ: 3511 (10%)
2001
Con: 8450 (24%)
Lab: 17419 (50%)
LDem: 6924 (20%)
BNP: 1613 (5%)
Oth: 611 (2%)
MAJ: 8969 (26%)
1997
Con: 10723 (26%)
Lab: 23493 (56%)
LDem: 6083 (15%)
Oth: 369 (1%)
MAJ: 12770 (30%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Bradford North

Demographics
2015 Candidates
IFTIKHAR AHMED (Conservative) Educated at Buttershaw Upper School and Bradford University. Management consultant.
IMRAN HUSSAIN (Labour) Born Bradford. Barrister. Bradford councillor. Contested Bradford West 2012 by-election.
DAVID WARD (Liberal Democrat) Born 1953, Lincoln. Educated at Boston Grammar School and Bradford University. Business Development Manager at Leeds Metropolitan University. Bradford councillor since 1984. Contested Bradford North 1990 by-election, 1992, 2001 & 2005. MP for Bradford East 2010 to 2015. Was reprimanded by the Lib Dem chief whip in 2013 for his use of language after using a message on holocaust remembrance day criticising "the Jews" for inflicting atrocities on the Palestinians. In July 2013 he had the Liberal Democrat whip suspended over further comments about Israel.
OWAIS RAJPUT (UKIP) Born Jammu and Kashmir. Educated at Bradford University. Academic.
DAVID STEVENS (Green) Former policeman and local government officer.
JAMES LEWTHWAITE (British Democrats) Born Calcutta. Educated at Cambridge University. Lecturer. Bradford councillor 2004-2008 for the BNP. Contested Bradford South 2010 as a Democratic Nationalist.
Links
Comments - 158 Responses on “Bradford East”
  1. On paper this should be a straightforward Labour gain, but Respect could well stand here and take votes off all the main parties. I don’t think the LibDems could hold on here though – with or without David Ward as their MP. The Conservative vote would collapse (cf Bradford West) as they only have one cllr in Bowling and Barkerend, which would go Labour in 2014. Having said all that I think Labour would take this, but as I said if Respect stand then it would be more of a challenge. Respect have 2 cllrs in Bradford Moor and Little Horton respectively.
    Prediction:- Labour gain

  2. Bradford must be the only city to have been represented (outside London) to be represented by 4 political parties.

    Conservative Keighley and Shipley
    Labour Bradford South
    Lib Dem Bradford East
    Respect Bradford West

  3. Belfast

  4. A swing of 4% to the Conservatives would deliver victory, spatchcocking the man who decapitated Rooney.

  5. In 2015, it’s safe to say that Bradford will be represented by: Labour, Labour, Labour and a Tory (who may even be UKIP).

  6. It would, yes – but I confidently predict that it won’t happen.

  7. It’s far too early to write off Hopkins’ chances in Keighley.

  8. I’d fairly confidently predict that Galloway will win, the liberal will lose.

    Keighley far too early to predict.

  9. I don’t share your confidence that Galloway will be re-elected – a general election is a very different from a by-election. Galloway also gets bored quickly and could easily decide not to stand.

    More likely than not I would expect the Tories to hold Keighley.

    I agree Bradford East seems a fairly certain Lab gain.

  10. I on my part, however, get bored with George Galloway quickly. (Apologies for partisan comment.)

  11. I am certain that –

    Tories will hold Shipley
    Respect will hold Bradford West
    Labour will hold Bradford South
    Labour will Gain Bradford East from the Lib Dems

    At this stage it is still impossible to predict what will happen in Keighley.

    Overlooked Belfast’s 4 party representation and also Edinburgh that had 4 party representation at Holyrood between 2007 – 2011 (Lab 2, Lib Dem 2, Con 1 and SNP 1).

  12. Again, I’m puzzled by your certainty on Respect holding Bradford West.

    On past form it’s far from certain that Galloway will even bother defending the seat.

  13. He had no choice in Glasgow Kelvin because it was abolished and the Labour MP for Glasgow Maryhill was almost certain to get the Labour nomination for the new Glasgow North.

    I’m not sure about his reasons for contesting Poplar & Limehouse instead of Bethnal Green & Bow?

  14. I think it was because he pledged when contesting BG&B that he would only stand for one term –

  15. Poplar & Limehouse is however a good guide as to how well Respect are likely to be able to defend Bradford West. It will be a Labour landslide similar to how they saw off the BNP in Barking, another area where many pundits were predicting that mid-term defeat would carry through to the general election.

  16. “MP David Ward has Lib Dem whip withdrawn over ‘Jews’ comment”:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-23361380

  17. Following on from Andy’s comment above, I wonder if this remark may help Ward hold on to enough votes to stop Labour winning by a large margin in 2015

    If that is what he says aloud then I would be interested to hear what he says to the 36.9% Muslim population on the doorstep.

  18. Maybe he will defect to Respect

  19. @ LBERNARD

    I was thinking the same thing.

  20. @LBERNARD

    I was thinking the same thing, but Ward’s majority is so slim that any uniform swing from Lib Dem to Labour could outweigh that issue.

  21. One thing I can confidently predict is that this constituency will not see a uniform swing.

  22. Once again the Lib Dems show how adept they are at plugging into local feeling…

  23. If respect stand this could well be a lib dem hold,
    Lib Dem 27
    Lab 25
    Con 21
    Res 18
    Bnp 4
    Ukip 3
    Other 2

  24. No I don’t agree with that. Respect are totally imploding in Bradford now with all of their councillors there having left the party. I still go for Lab gain with a reasonable degree of confidence, possibly more than that.

  25. Have there been any updates about Labour’s selection in this seat?

  26. LAB GAIN MAJ : 16%
    LAB 39
    LD 23
    CON 22
    UKIP 8
    GRN 4
    OTH 4

  27. Votes cast in the constituency on 22nd May:

    Lab 12,175
    LD 9,503
    Con 2,297
    Respect 1,789
    Green 391

  28. That’s not a disastrous performance by the LDs considering. I still think they’ll lose here but who knows it might be closer than we have thought likely up to now.

  29. Dalek – Liverpool had 4 Parties (Tory, Labour, Liberal, SDP) in ’82. It had 3 Parties a couple of times too more recently: ’91/92 and ’04/05.

  30. IMO the LD voteshare will remain relatively static, with the Tories collapsing in Labour’s favour.
    Unless David Ward has a big personal vote, I think the only chance of a LD hold here would be Respect splitting Labour’s vote, and it now looks as though that ship has sailed.

  31. I notice that the LibDem MP has been prepared to get into trouble over Israel, which may do him no harm at all in Bradford. However, he will still do well to hold Labour, or perhaps even the Conservatives, out.

    Have the other parties selected here, as this is a seat in which the candidates will matter?

  32. This really just depends on whether UKIP and respect stand. Let’s presume they both do , then neither of them do.

    prediction for 2015-

    lab- 39%
    lib- 31%
    con- 28%
    BNP- 2%

    and if they both stand?

    Lib- 30%
    lab- 29%
    con- 20%
    res- 15%
    UKIP- 6%

    Respect are the only thing that can really keep labour out, thanks to the demographics of the area, if respect ever cease to exist this will be a very safe labour seat.

  33. Just look at the local election results for the constituency from May – that doesn’t suggest any serious groundswell of support for Respect. They also suggest that the Tories will do far worse than that.

  34. Paddy Power have labour 1/14 to win this seat…seems about right to me. libs 10/1….

    Ladbrokes less bullish on labour but have 1/8 and libs 5/1…labour gain. the libs will be crushed here.

    betting is a tax on bullsh*t…love that quotation.

  35. “The big question is – if I lived in #Gaza would I fire a rocket? – probably yes” – David Ward.

    Shall we put that in the big book of things MPs shouldn’t say?

  36. Won’t harm his chances here.

  37. Except that his core vote in his seat is from two mostly white working class wards, where the Lib Dems built a base in opposition to the clan based ethnic politics in the rest of the seat, which decided whtether Labour or Tory candidates won in particular wards each year.

    David Ward has no purchase in those communities at all, so I really don’t understand why he makes these comments at all.

    As long as Labour chooses correctly, this will be a walk over

  38. Its totally shameless. He will most likely come pretty close. I wouldn’t be suprised if it was less than 5 points.

  39. But he won the seat by getting enough Asian voters to supprt him along with his own core vote in Idle ward. I doubt whether anyone outside the asian community would be influenced by the view he holds on Palestine.

  40. Have Labour selected a candidate? If Ward doesn’t apologize, Clegg will have to withdraw the whip, and it wouldn’t shock me if he promptly decamped to Labour.

  41. Labour wouldn’t touch him with a barge pole after his previous gaffes. Easier by far to just defeat him, which looks very likely.

  42. If he lost the whip he would run independent. I think Labour will win here no matter what.

  43. It’d be interesting to see what would happen if he stood as an independent. With the number of viable parties in this seat, anything could happen.

    We’d have:

    Ward (Ind) 17%
    LD 12%
    Con 18%
    Lab 32%
    UKIP 9%
    BNP 2%
    Res 8%
    Oth 2%

  44. What’s the current record for most deposits held in one seat at the same election?

  45. Probably five. Makerfield achieved this at the last election with all three main parties plus BNP and an Independent. Other examples I can think of are Orkney & Shetland in 2005 (LD/Lab/Con/SNP/SSP) and Bethnal Green & Bow in 1997(Lab/Con/LD/BNP/Lib)

  46. Also Boston & Skegness at the last election. BNP retained their deposit as well as UKIP

  47. .. and Doncaster North

  48. There’s so much that could be said about this MP’s latest remarks but I will just confine myself to the observation that this is what happens when a party adopts a strategy of trying to hoover up disaffected voters using whatever local or sectional issues it thinks might do the trick. This is why the Lib Dem party in its current shape is headed for oblivion.

  49. It is in David Wards favour to make anti Isreal remarks when sitting as a member for such a heavily Muslim city. He knows that whilst he has much of the white vote (for now), he needs some of Labours Muslim vote in order to hold the seat.

  50. What good is he to his constituents though when he constantly leaves himself open to suspension (maybe now expulsion) from his party, making him a figure much reduced in terms of influence. Martin Bell would complain about the difficulties of being a lone voice in parliament, and he had good relationships with other parties.
    Mr Ward is a fairly unsavoury figure.

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