Bradford East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10860 (26.8%)
Labour: 13272 (32.8%)
Lib Dem: 13637 (33.7%)
BNP: 1854 (4.6%)
Independent: 375 (0.9%)
Others: 459 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 365 (0.9%)

Category: Three-way Marginal

Geography: Yorkshire and the Humber, West Yorkshire.

Main population centres:

Profile:

Politics:


Outgoing MP
DAVID WARD (Liberal Democrat) Born 1953, Lincoln. Educated at Boston Grammar School and Bradford University. Former business Development Manager at Leeds Metropolitan University. Bradford councillor since 1984. Contested Bradford North 1990 by-election, 1992, 2001 & 2005. First elected as MP for Bradford East in 2010. Was reprimanded by the Lib Dem chief whip in 2013 for his use of language after using a message on holocaust remembrance day criticising "the Jews" for inflicting atrocities on the Palestinians. In July 2013 he had the Liberal Democrat whip suspended over further comments about Israel.
Past Results
2005*
Con: 5569 (16%)
Lab: 14622 (43%)
LDem: 11111 (32%)
BNP: 2061 (6%)
Oth: 1034 (3%)
MAJ: 3511 (10%)
2001
Con: 8450 (24%)
Lab: 17419 (50%)
LDem: 6924 (20%)
BNP: 1613 (5%)
Oth: 611 (2%)
MAJ: 8969 (26%)
1997
Con: 10723 (26%)
Lab: 23493 (56%)
LDem: 6083 (15%)
Oth: 369 (1%)
MAJ: 12770 (30%)
1992**
Con: 15756 (32%)
Lab: 23420 (48%)
LDem: 9133 (19%)
Oth: 654 (2%)
MAJ: 7664 (16%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Bradford North
**There were boundary changes after 1992

Demographics
2015 Candidates
IFTIKHAR AHMED (Conservative) Educated at Buttershaw Upper School and Bradford University. Management consultant.
IMRAN HUSSAIN (Labour) Born Bradford. Barrister. Bradford councillor. Contested Bradford West 2012 by-election.
DAVID WARD (Liberal Democrat) See above.
OWAIS RAJPUT (UKIP) Born Jammu and Kashmir. Educated at Bradford University. Academic.
DAVID STEVENS (Green) Former policeman and local government officer.
JAMES LEWTHWAITE (British Democrats) Born Calcutta. Educated at Cambridge University. Lecturer. Bradford councillor 2004-2008 for the BNP. Contested Bradford South 2010 as a Democratic Nationalist.
Links
Comments - No Responses on “Bradford East”
  1. “Bradford’s Labour group have to seriously stop its complacency and look into its own clan identity politics.”

    Regional office is interviewing sitting Cllrs whoa re up for re-election next year. So far 4 haven’t passed the assessment process: 2 here and 2 in Bradford West.

  2. Hey Andrea. How do you know this to be so? Just curious

  3. Backing David Ward on the Betfair exchange markets would probably represent value at the moment, although I haven’t checked the latest odds.

  4. Iain Dale:

    “A dead cert Labour gain, I’d have thought, and a result which will bring joy to jewish people all over the country.”

    http://www.iaindale.com/posts/2015/01/11/general-election-predictions-49-west-yorkshire

  5. CON 20% -7%
    LAB 19% -14%
    *LD 18% -16%
    RES 18%
    IND LAB 17%
    UKIP 8%

    CON GAIN

  6. Nurse…..

  7. Independent Labour? Is there [likely to be] such a candidate?

    Add the Independent Labour figure to Labour and redistribute a couple of points to UKIP and we’re into likely territory.

  8. Surely Labour are going to gain this seat in May?

  9. Miriam Purdom, don’t be silly. I wonder if it’s Joe Broughton. He has often made predictions very similar in type to that.

  10. “Miriam Purdom, don’t be silly. I wonder if it’s Joe Broughton. He has often made predictions very similar in type to that”

    :-)

  11. Ward in trouble yet again, this time for using the Charlie Hebdo attack as an excuse to attack Israel.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30803254

  12. It is very cynical of course but shoring up his personal vote (and hoping Respect stand and take 10-15% or so of the vote away from Labour) is his best chance of hanging on, whatever the cost in terms of community relations.

    I’d tip Labour to win but perhaps by less than expected/the Ashcroft poll would suggest. 3,000 majority or so maybe.

    Any word on if Respect are standing and who they are putting up here if they are?

  13. If Ward is defeated and doesn’t stand again, this could be an increased Labour majority in 2020. I suspect his personal vote will count for a lot this time.

  14. ‘Ward in trouble yet again, this time for using the Charlie Hebdo attack as an excuse to attack Israel.’

    I think he and George Galloway could get on quite well together.

  15. If Respect do stand in this seat the Lib Dems will be finished as their supporters in this seat are rather similar.

  16. Perhaps Ward should stand for Respect or as a joint candidate.

  17. Ways to cause Nick Clegg a headache, #129.

  18. BM11, that is nonsense.
    When Respect were riding high in 2012, council elections showed a very tight 3 way battle, Labour first and Respect third. The only way that Ward could hold this seat is with a Respect intervention.

  19. I thought the Lid Dem vote in this eat mostly a Muslim vote which if Respect stood they would take some of. This MP I cant see getting loads of wwc voters, a type who are anti coalition and Labour supporting at the moment.
    Nick Clegg would probably want him out of Parliament as I cant Imagine he likes his controversial statements.

  20. Well, if Clegg loses MPs on the scale being talked of, then Ward will be the least of his problems..

  21. http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=6&ved=0CEAQFjAF&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.westyorkshireobservatory.org%2Fresource%2Fview%3FresourceId%3D3585&ei=MOq7VIOMDM28aabigJAB&usg=AFQjCNEf3W4XQ6QG9Aq7u1ZTeNcixMDsxw

    Have a look at the table on pg 3

    The wards in Bradford East in order of how well the LDs do:
    Idle & Thackley – over 90% White
    Bolton & Undercliffe – around 65% White, 25% Asian
    Eccleshill – around 85% White
    Bradford Moor – around 80% Asian
    Bowling & Barkerend – around 50% White, 40% Asian
    Little Horton – around 60% Asian, 30% White

    The Lib Dem vote here is mixed, but predominantly White.

  22. Respect haven’t officially decided yet whether they will stand here – its something which is currently under consideration.

    Some posters are correct in saying that Ward’s views on Palestine/Israel are similar to that of Respect’s but Galloway has launched a number of scathing attacks on Ward throughout this parliament for his votes on the bedroom tax and the cutting of firefighter’s pensions.

    I agree with the general consensus here – if Ward is to have any chance at all of holding here he needs to start begging Galloway to stand a candidate here. In elections where Respect have done well, its true to say that they do tend to take votes from all manner of parties, but nonetheless they take a disproportionate chunk from Labour.

    This is a difficult decision for Respect. Clearly it’s in their ideological interests to have a Labour government come May, but equally, they’ll want to punish what they see as a weak and ineffectively centrist Labour party. Add to that the fact that Bradford East is one of a very small number of seats in this country where they could retain their deposit. I suspect that’s why they haven’t announced a candidate yet.

    On a personal level, even if Respect do stand, I suspect Labour would still win here relatively comfortably. Perhaps something like:

    LAB – 32%
    L D – 26%
    CON – 18%
    RES – 14%
    UKIP – 8%
    GRN – 2%

  23. “The wards in Bradford East in order of how well the LDs do:
    Idle & Thackley – over 90% White -3 LD councillors
    Bolton & Undercliffe – around 65% White, 25% Asian 3LD councillors
    Eccleshill – around 85% White 2 LD 1 Lab councillor
    Bradford Moor – around 80% Asian 2 Lab 1 ex Respect councillors
    Bowling & Barkerend – around 50% White, 40% Asian 3 Lab councillors
    Little Horton – around 60% Asian, 30% White 2 Lab 1 ex Respect councillors

    The Lib Dem vote here is mixed, but predominantly White.”

    All the Lib Dem councillors are white, and I believe in at least two of the wards that vote is very UKIP susceptible. The one Labour councillor in Eccleshill in white. All the other 9 councillors are Asian heritage.

    The more David Ward makes the sort of pronouncements on the Middle East he does, the more WWC votes which provide his base in the north of the constituency he loses.

  24. This article is on Bradford West, but interesting point on Imran Hussain, his techniques and how he’s been sidelined from Bradford West into Bradford East by Labour HQ.

  25. I’m starting to think that just maybe the LDs might have a chance of holding this. I used to think it was a 99% certain Labour gain. The fact Labour have chosen the loser of the Bradford West by-election is one of the reasons.

  26. i don’t agree. the polling evidence is too much against him holding on. i heard him on the radio yesterday – amazingly arrogant, kept accusing the presenter of not knowing the policy on tuition fees (he certainly did).

  27. I shudder to think what kind of unpleasant stuff will be circulating on some of the doorsteps in this particular contest.

  28. I’m with BARNABY MARDER & Iain Dale- after the dust settles, a LAB gain…with or without RESP.

    The ASHCROFT poll is a year old but LAB had a huge 45% share.

    Btw, we could here see the only constituency with 5 parties with 10% +
    if RESP stands.

  29. The Bradford campaigns will be among the dirtiest in the whole country.

    Of that I’m certain.

  30. Deepthroat: Luton South might be a good shout for a seat with 5 parties with 10%+.

  31. I’d imagine Bradford South and Shipley (it’s within Bradford borough) will be fairly safe from dirty campaigning.

  32. …replying to Luke Senior.

  33. Sorryy I meant Norwich South. Don’t know what I was thinking there.

  34. Neil – in terms of Bradford South, UKIP fancy their chances of pushing Labour pretty close here.

    Labour are shipping in a councillor from Leeds, UKIP’s NHS leaflet is being circulated pretty regularly and the candidate has been around a while and is fairly well known, as I understand it.

    If there are whispers that it might be pretty close, a leaflet similar to the drivel put out by Labour in West Leeds might be circulated – with Labour’s tough new stance on immigration and how they are the only party who can save the NHS.

    The Tories seem to be throwing everything at Ed Balls, and not really doing much elsewhere.

  35. Luke, that leaflet you describe as ‘drivel’ will already have been put out here – because it’s a bit of national literature that was sent to households all over the country.

  36. Luke, I tend to think the Tories are campaigning seriously, as are Labour, in Pudsey. This seems to be the one marginal that is completely up for grabs.

    I would expect there to be significant effort in Dewsbury, Keighley, Elmet & Rothwell, Colne Valley and Calder Valley which are all near this seat. Does anybody from these areas know of signicant campaigning?

    If you want to know about Ed, look at M & O.

  37. Sorry Chris – I meant in terms of targeting new seats, lots of the attention seems to be going there.

    Bradford’s three seats (leaving Shipley and Keighley aside) aren’t very natural Tory territory in my opinion, and therefore efforts are being focused elsewhere.

  38. Andy Carrington is standing as candidate for Ian Bone’s Class War party:

    https://twitter.com/AndyJSajs/status/572645791124353024

  39. Bradford East is an unusual seat (and one of four in the UK I feel I know something about!)… The Asian vote can be quite personal rather than party-political, and the large Tory % in 2010 appears to have been a personal vote for Mohammad Riaz, who has done well wherever he has stood in Bradford. The collapse in the Tory vote in the Ashcroft poll. is probably realistic.

    I don’t really want to get involved in Ward’s indiscreet comments on Israel, but I have met him and I would say he is a genuine supporter of the Palestinian cause rather than some neo-Hitler, or even an opportunist. I don’t think those statements will make much difference to his vote in the Asian community, to be honest… Or in the white community either…

    Lib Dems can get a significant vote in the Asian community (they only lost by a handful in Bradford Moor last time), but Labour will undoubtedly win the Asian vote. It may be that being the only non-Asian candidate in the big four here may help Ward among the 60% of the voters who are not Asian. I find it rather hard to believe (possibly revealing some stereotyping here…) that an Asian candidate will maximise the UKIP vote… But Bradford is a strange place….

    Labour won the local elections in 2014 by 46% to 36%, with the Tories and Respect nowhere and UKIP not standing… I am sure Labour will win, and probably by more than 10%, but I would be surprised if the Lib Dem vote dips much below 30%. I had to divert through Bradford East today and the Ward poster team have certainly been working hard…

    Andrew

  40. The look on Cleggs face (if he survives) when the LD Parliamentary Party rejoin after a devistating election and Ward is in the corner, waving, have somehow scraped by on a majority of 10 would be classic

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