Bradford East

2010 Result:
Conservative: 10860 (26.8%)
Labour: 13272 (32.8%)
Lib Dem: 13637 (33.7%)
BNP: 1854 (4.6%)
Independent: 375 (0.9%)
Others: 459 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 365 (0.9%)

Category: Three-way Marginal

Geography: Yorkshire and the Humber, West Yorkshire.

Main population centres:

Profile:

Politics:


Current MP
DAVID WARD (Liberal Democrat) Born 1953, Lincoln. Educated at Boston Grammar School and Bradford University. Former business Development Manager at Leeds Metropolitan University. Bradford councillor since 1984. Contested Bradford North 1990 by-election, 1992, 2001 & 2005. First elected as MP for Bradford East in 2010. Was reprimanded by the Lib Dem chief whip in 2013 for his use of language after using a message on holocaust remembrance day criticising "the Jews" for inflicting atrocities on the Palestinians. In July 2013 he had the Liberal Democrat whip suspended over further comments about Israel.
Past Results
2005*
Con: 5569 (16%)
Lab: 14622 (43%)
LDem: 11111 (32%)
BNP: 2061 (6%)
Oth: 1034 (3%)
MAJ: 3511 (10%)
2001
Con: 8450 (24%)
Lab: 17419 (50%)
LDem: 6924 (20%)
BNP: 1613 (5%)
Oth: 611 (2%)
MAJ: 8969 (26%)
1997
Con: 10723 (26%)
Lab: 23493 (56%)
LDem: 6083 (15%)
Oth: 369 (1%)
MAJ: 12770 (30%)
1992**
Con: 15756 (32%)
Lab: 23420 (48%)
LDem: 9133 (19%)
Oth: 654 (2%)
MAJ: 7664 (16%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005, name changed from Bradford North
**There were boundary changes after 1992

Demographics
Other 2015 Candidates
IFTIKHAR AHMED (Conservative) Educated at Buttershaw Upper School and Bradford University. Management consultant.
IMRAN HUSSAIN (Labour) Born Bradford. Barrister. Bradford councillor. Contested Bradford West 2012 by-election.
OWAIS RAJPUT (UKIP) Born Jammu and Kashmir. Educated at Bradford University. Academic.
Links
Comments - 123 Responses on “Bradford East”
  1. “Bradford’s Labour group have to seriously stop its complacency and look into its own clan identity politics.”

    Regional office is interviewing sitting Cllrs whoa re up for re-election next year. So far 4 haven’t passed the assessment process: 2 here and 2 in Bradford West.

  2. Hey Andrea. How do you know this to be so? Just curious

  3. Backing David Ward on the Betfair exchange markets would probably represent value at the moment, although I haven’t checked the latest odds.

  4. Iain Dale:

    “A dead cert Labour gain, I’d have thought, and a result which will bring joy to jewish people all over the country.”

    http://www.iaindale.com/posts/2015/01/11/general-election-predictions-49-west-yorkshire

  5. CON 20% -7%
    LAB 19% -14%
    *LD 18% -16%
    RES 18%
    IND LAB 17%
    UKIP 8%

    CON GAIN

  6. Nurse…..

  7. Independent Labour? Is there [likely to be] such a candidate?

    Add the Independent Labour figure to Labour and redistribute a couple of points to UKIP and we’re into likely territory.

  8. Surely Labour are going to gain this seat in May?

  9. Miriam Purdom, don’t be silly. I wonder if it’s Joe Broughton. He has often made predictions very similar in type to that.

  10. “Miriam Purdom, don’t be silly. I wonder if it’s Joe Broughton. He has often made predictions very similar in type to that”

    :-)

  11. Ward in trouble yet again, this time for using the Charlie Hebdo attack as an excuse to attack Israel.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-30803254

  12. It is very cynical of course but shoring up his personal vote (and hoping Respect stand and take 10-15% or so of the vote away from Labour) is his best chance of hanging on, whatever the cost in terms of community relations.

    I’d tip Labour to win but perhaps by less than expected/the Ashcroft poll would suggest. 3,000 majority or so maybe.

    Any word on if Respect are standing and who they are putting up here if they are?

  13. If Ward is defeated and doesn’t stand again, this could be an increased Labour majority in 2020. I suspect his personal vote will count for a lot this time.

  14. ‘Ward in trouble yet again, this time for using the Charlie Hebdo attack as an excuse to attack Israel.’

    I think he and George Galloway could get on quite well together.

  15. If Respect do stand in this seat the Lib Dems will be finished as their supporters in this seat are rather similar.

  16. Perhaps Ward should stand for Respect or as a joint candidate.

  17. Ways to cause Nick Clegg a headache, #129.

  18. BM11, that is nonsense.
    When Respect were riding high in 2012, council elections showed a very tight 3 way battle, Labour first and Respect third. The only way that Ward could hold this seat is with a Respect intervention.

  19. I thought the Lid Dem vote in this eat mostly a Muslim vote which if Respect stood they would take some of. This MP I cant see getting loads of wwc voters, a type who are anti coalition and Labour supporting at the moment.
    Nick Clegg would probably want him out of Parliament as I cant Imagine he likes his controversial statements.

  20. Well, if Clegg loses MPs on the scale being talked of, then Ward will be the least of his problems..

  21. http://www.google.co.uk/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&frm=1&source=web&cd=6&ved=0CEAQFjAF&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.westyorkshireobservatory.org%2Fresource%2Fview%3FresourceId%3D3585&ei=MOq7VIOMDM28aabigJAB&usg=AFQjCNEf3W4XQ6QG9Aq7u1ZTeNcixMDsxw

    Have a look at the table on pg 3

    The wards in Bradford East in order of how well the LDs do:
    Idle & Thackley – over 90% White
    Bolton & Undercliffe – around 65% White, 25% Asian
    Eccleshill – around 85% White
    Bradford Moor – around 80% Asian
    Bowling & Barkerend – around 50% White, 40% Asian
    Little Horton – around 60% Asian, 30% White

    The Lib Dem vote here is mixed, but predominantly White.

  22. Respect haven’t officially decided yet whether they will stand here – its something which is currently under consideration.

    Some posters are correct in saying that Ward’s views on Palestine/Israel are similar to that of Respect’s but Galloway has launched a number of scathing attacks on Ward throughout this parliament for his votes on the bedroom tax and the cutting of firefighter’s pensions.

    I agree with the general consensus here – if Ward is to have any chance at all of holding here he needs to start begging Galloway to stand a candidate here. In elections where Respect have done well, its true to say that they do tend to take votes from all manner of parties, but nonetheless they take a disproportionate chunk from Labour.

    This is a difficult decision for Respect. Clearly it’s in their ideological interests to have a Labour government come May, but equally, they’ll want to punish what they see as a weak and ineffectively centrist Labour party. Add to that the fact that Bradford East is one of a very small number of seats in this country where they could retain their deposit. I suspect that’s why they haven’t announced a candidate yet.

    On a personal level, even if Respect do stand, I suspect Labour would still win here relatively comfortably. Perhaps something like:

    LAB – 32%
    L D – 26%
    CON – 18%
    RES – 14%
    UKIP – 8%
    GRN – 2%

  23. “The wards in Bradford East in order of how well the LDs do:
    Idle & Thackley – over 90% White -3 LD councillors
    Bolton & Undercliffe – around 65% White, 25% Asian 3LD councillors
    Eccleshill – around 85% White 2 LD 1 Lab councillor
    Bradford Moor – around 80% Asian 2 Lab 1 ex Respect councillors
    Bowling & Barkerend – around 50% White, 40% Asian 3 Lab councillors
    Little Horton – around 60% Asian, 30% White 2 Lab 1 ex Respect councillors

    The Lib Dem vote here is mixed, but predominantly White.”

    All the Lib Dem councillors are white, and I believe in at least two of the wards that vote is very UKIP susceptible. The one Labour councillor in Eccleshill in white. All the other 9 councillors are Asian heritage.

    The more David Ward makes the sort of pronouncements on the Middle East he does, the more WWC votes which provide his base in the north of the constituency he loses.

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