Bosworth

2015 Result:
Conservative: 22939 (42.8%)
Labour: 9354 (17.5%)
Lib Dem: 11951 (22.3%)
UKIP: 9338 (17.4%)
MAJORITY: 10988 (20.5%)

Category: Very safe Conservative seat

Geography: East Midlands, Leicestershire. Most of the Hinckley and Bosworth council area.

Main population centres: Hinckley, Barwell, Earl Shilton, Market Bosworth, Newbold, Desford.

Profile: The town of Hinckley, and a large part of rural western Leicestershire. There are three towns in the constituency, the large middle class commuter town of Hinckley, the former mining town of Earl Shilton and the tiny market town of Market Bosworth, best known for the pivotal battle that ended the War of the Roses that was fought just to the south of the town. The constituency covers part of the old Leicestershire coalfield, but is now increasingly made up of commuter villages rather than industry.

Politics: Demographic and boundary changes have moved Bosworth into the Conservative column over the decades. Until the 1960s its coal mining tradition made it a Labour seat, but the 1970s it was a marginal Conservative seat and has been held by them ever since, despite Labour coming very close to taking the seat in 1997.


Current MP
DAVID TREDINNICK (Conservative) Born 1950, Worthing. Educated at Eton and Oxford University. Former manager. Contested Cardiff and Penarth 1983. First elected as MP for Bosworth in 1987. PPS to Wyn Roberts 1991-1994. Resigned from office and suspended from the Commons for 20 days as a result of the Cash for Questions scandal, Tredinnick is now best known for his support for homeopathy and other alternative medicine.
Past Results
2010
Con: 23132 (43%)
Lab: 8674 (16%)
LDem: 18100 (33%)
BNP: 2458 (5%)
Oth: 1910 (4%)
MAJ: 5032 (9%)
2005*
Con: 20212 (43%)
Lab: 14893 (31%)
LDem: 10528 (22%)
UKIP: 1866 (4%)
MAJ: 5319 (11%)
2001
Con: 20030 (44%)
Lab: 17750 (39%)
LDem: 7326 (16%)
MAJ: 2280 (5%)
1997
Con: 21189 (41%)
Lab: 20162 (39%)
LDem: 9281 (18%)
MAJ: 1027 (2%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
DAVID TREDINNICK (Conservative) See above.
CHRIS KEALEY (Labour)
MICHAEL MULLANEY (Liberal Democrat) Contested Bosworth 2010.
DAVID SPRASON (UKIP)
Links
Comments - 129 Responses on “Bosworth”
  1. This is a seat that it is uncomfortably marginal for David Tredinnick.

    It seems to be that there is a large anti-Conservative vote in this seat that hasn’t coalesced around either Labour or the Lib Dems- all the same, I would expect Tredinnick to hold this, but the question is who will take second place?

  2. I don’t pretend to have any local knowledge of Bosworth, but my guess is that in this any similarly-balanced seats, Labour will retake 2nd place from the LibDems.

    It seems to me very plausible that in terms of their relative shares of the overall vote, Labour will have a similar lead over the LibDems in 2015 to what they had in 1997, albeit with both reduced from that GE.

    In the 1997 GE Labour (on 43.2% nationally) achieved 2.57 votes to each one cast for the LDs (16.8%). That same ratio of 2.57 to 1 would be repeated in 2015 with Labour on 36% and the LibDems on 14%.

  3. I’d expect the LDs to hold 2nd place here because this is just about the only seat the East Midlands apart from Ashfield that can be considered a ‘plausible target’ for them in 2019/20.

    Labour is now VERY weak outside Markfield and Earl Shilton.

  4. I think you need to look at the local political balance. Labour have only one councillor in the constituency and the Lib Dems run the council (which is conterminious with the parliamentary seat barring Groby ward which is is Charnwood).

  5. Is there any seat anywhere in England where the LibDems can be expected to performe worse rather than better than the national picture might suggest ?

  6. If the ‘national picture’ is that our vote will half nationally (which is what most polling companies say) then yes, I’m sure there will be plenty of seats, probably where we’re currently a good or goodish third where our vote will more than half. I don’t think our vote will half nationally but that will obviously happen in many seats.

  7. I would expect the Lib Dems to perform worse than the national picture in most safe Labour and Conservative seats. They may also do worse in 3 way marginals, though there are not many of them. Where the Lib Dems are competitive with Labour, it will likely be mixed according to local circumstances — some results will likely be worse than the national picture, others better. In LD–Conservative marginals, the LDs should overall do better than the national picture.

  8. I think the Tories might be advised to select a new candidate for 2015; otherwise they might find themselves in another Solihull situation. The LD candidate seems to be very effective: he’s been reselected for the next election.

  9. who is he (the LibDem candidate)? How many percent would be attributed to the current MPs incumbency?

    UKIP appeared to be derisory last time…

  10. The Liberal Democrat candidate is Michael Mullaney. Whether or not he turns out to be like David Penhaligon or Tim Farron electorally remains to be seen…

  11. Tredinnick has done quite well to survive really after being stung in the original ‘cash for questions’ expose by the sunday times in the mid 90s

    he got suspended, but i don’t think there were any issues with his local association so i guess his credentials as a constituency mp must be strong, although i think the very notable tory upturn in fortunes over the past decades has more to do with the seat’s changing demographics

    remarkable performance from the lib dems in 2010 in a seat where they got less that their national share of the vote in 2001 and 1997. i wonder where that came from

  12. ”remarkable performance from the lib dems in 2010 in a seat where they got less that their national share of the vote in 2001 and 1997. i wonder where that came from”

    Probably a combination of factors Tim- The party’s strength locally, the ability of the centre-left voting majority in this seat to tactically vote against Tredinnick, and probably also because of the personal appeal of Mullaney himself I think. Who knows? If the Lib Dems hold up well here in 2015 there could actually be an interesting result…

  13. “the centre-left voting majority in this seat”

    What centre-left voting majority ?

  14. The combination of Lib Dem and Labour voters is higher than those who vote for the Conservative Party in this seat.

  15. I think it would be very simplistic to assume that everyone who votes Lib Dem considers themselves to be on the centre left, but even if we accepted that assumption, the combined Labour and Lib Dem vote in 2010 was below 50%. I take it you would not place UKIP, the BNP or the English Democrats on the centre left ?

  16. Yes but the combined Labour and Lib Dem vote was still higher than the Conservative vote in 2010.

  17. That doesn’t make it a majority though does it? If it is below 50% it is not a majority. You could just as easily (or even more easily) have said that the right-wing majority in this seat combined very effectively behind the Conservative candidate to keep the Lib Dems from winning.
    You might not care to address my point that not all Lib Dem voters would necessarily see themselves or hold views which would place them on the centre-left. It is certainly fair to say that the Lib Dems are a centre-left party and ran on a centre-left manifesto in 2010. But adding the entire Labour and Lib Dem vote together in 2010 des not equal a majority. Also you take no account of fluctuations in party support. There are plenty of seats where you can talk of a permanent centre-left majority including some which currently have a Conservative MP (Brighton Kemptown might be a good example). This is not such a case. IN the recent county council elections the combined Conservative and UKIP share was 55% in this constituency. The Conservatives on their own got that kind of vote share from 1979 to 1992. This is hardly the kind seat which the Conservatives win by accident resulting from some split of the mythical ‘progressive majority’

  18. True, but its a nonsense to say that this seat has a left wing majority or even plurality. Many of the LD voters here will be former tories.

    It has a clear right of centre majority, never mind plurality.

  19. It’s not a very high Conservative vote though is it? It’s not even at least 50%…

    In a seat like this, the Tories should be managing more than half the vote easily.

  20. Why should they be getting more than 50% when you said there was a centre-left voting majority? Surely it’s impossible unless some of these centre-left voters vote Conservative.

  21. Right, here’s the maths-

    Labour+Lib Dem vote in 2010= 26, 774 (49.3%)
    Conservative vote in 2010= 23, 132 (42.6%)

    That to me says that there are more natural voters in this seat for the main opposition to the Tories here than the Tories themselves.

    Also, when you consider that the majority in Harborough is what could be called safe, this seat remains marginal for the Tories and that is a fact that cannot be denied.

  22. Con+UKIP+BNP+ED = 27,303 (50.3%)

  23. So what? It doesn’t mean ALL those who voted UKIP, BNP, and English Democrats were natural Tory voters? The Tories should be a lot higher here in any case.

  24. I think Pete’s beaten you results. He doesn’t need to prove all the minor party voters would have voted tory, the fact remains that an absolute majority of the electorate voted for right leaning parties.

    Your own logic is somewhat flawed if your argument is that there’s a centre left majority because of Lab and LD votes: So what? It doesn’t mean ALL those who voted LD were natural Labour voters.

  25. As Paul has already asked you, why should they be higher if there is a natural centre left majority? I don’t say that all those (or any) who voted for those parties are ‘natural’ Tory voters but you seem to imply that all those Labour voters would naturally support the Lib Dems. It is certainly tyhe case that those who voted for those parties were not voting for centre left parties. The votes cast for all these parties plus the Conservatives exceeded those cast for parties which are on the centre left. Its a straightforward enough situation. Your own maths show that the centre -left as you define it did not win as much as 50% of the vote here therefore talk of a centre left majority is nonsense. You should stop digging, or maybe go and take a closer look at the 1992 result here or something..

  26. I think the Tory vote would be close to 50% without Tredinnick.

  27. I think Pete is basically right here – indeed, one could say he’s right about the Right…..
    Some LD voters may think themselves to be on the centre-left, but most of them wouldn’t associate with such terminology.
    I also take a certain degree of issue with Tim. I don’t think that this constituency’s demography has basically changed to any great extent since it acquired something like its present boundaries, which was in 1983. There has, rather, been a POLITICAL change, in which the LDs have managed to squeeze the Labour vote, partly I suspect through local government activism. I think Labour still has the potential to get quite a substantial vote in the future, but winning the seat seems to be just beyond them even in landslide conditions. I think the LDs will hold second place here, but there will be some tactical unwind especially in Earl Shilton, and perhaps Hinckley to some extent too.

  28. I disagree with all of that.

    The result in 2010 shows that the Conservative vote stayed exactly the same, and that they didn’t lose any votes to UKIP, BNP or the English Democrats. Therefore, I don’t agree that there are more right-leaning voters in this seat at all.

    Robberbutton on the other hand is wrong- No one ‘beats’ anyone on anything so he either has to accept that Pete Whitehead is not always correct or say something constructive that will actually help this debate.

    You are on the moral high ground in any case Pete so trying to argue any different from what you say is really a dead-end alley as far as you’re concerned, but not in my eyes. You don’t even like me anyway, so I’m hardly going to accept what you’re saying as being the absolute truth am I? If you were actually civil to me instead of pointing out all the supposed negatives in what I say then maybe you’d wake up and realise how your right-wing persuasion makes you come across to certain people on here as being rather disconcerting in some of your arguments.

  29. And actually, here the BNP and English Democrats were in fact beneficiaries of LABOUR’s highly steep fall in vote share, so on that basis there would not be a majority for right-leaning votes in this seat at all.

  30. “You are on the moral high ground in any case Pete”

    Its nice of you to acknowledge that, but I’m really not sure where morality comes into this discussion.
    Nor is the question of whether or not I like you ffs. Grow up

  31. ”Its nice of you to acknowledge that, but I’m really not sure where morality comes into this discussion.
    Nor is the question of whether or not I like you ffs. Grow up”

    Just because you know everything about elections does not make you better than everyone else on this site is what I was saying. And incidentally, if you don’t like me then you can just say you know.

  32. I’m with Mr Whitehead on this issue. I think it is a mistake to assume that because the bulk of Lib Dem activists are centre-left(ish), the bulk of Lib Dem voters must be of a similar persuasion. We shouldn’t forget that the Liberal Democrat party has until recently been a major beneficiary of protest votes from not terribly ideological people.

  33. But I just find it striking how a seat such as this isn’t as safe as it was in 1992 at least- What has happened to the Conservatives here for them to be so marginal with the Lib Dems?

  34. Well IIRC, the Lib Dems have managed carved out a niche for themselves in local government here (as can often be the case in constituencies which do not appear to be promising Lib Dem territory).

  35. Yeah but it’s really weird, I mean Hinckley and Bosworth? And also, when you consider how in the same county Oadby and Wigston has had similar Lib Dem strength, the parliamentary seat of Harborough has seen their challenge falter while here the opposite has happened.

  36. That’s not difficult to analyse though, is it. The Harborough constituency hasn’t a coherent Labour vote for donkeys’s years (although it was won, somehow or other, in 1945). Therefore, the fight there has entirely between what I will term the bourgeois parties, and the LDs have had very little Labour vote to squeeze. They have also been hamstrung by the rather centrist views of Edward Garnier in that seat in my opinion. Here in Bosworth however there was a very large Labour vote, and Labour were competitive as recently as 2001. With a large Labour vote to squeeze, and Labour not really resisting them very much locally, the LDs have become serious challengers. And I’d also submit that in many ways Hinckley, the largest town, is almost made for them – owner-occupied, rather industrial, but definitely not poor, with many voters tending to be fractionally right of centre. I can easily see why the LDs have become a danger to the Tories here – though I am sure the latter will hold on.
    TheResults I do understand your point, but you should keep your cool under attack better. Some of your analysis is very worthwhile, but there are times when you are wide of the mark, and are rightly criticized. I feel that on this thread you’re not on the right lines. Please don’t be offended, or go off on one. Everyone accepts you are entitled to your opinion, but you need to be prepared for criticism too.

  37. Thanks Barnaby I know what you mean.

    Oh well we’ve all had a lively debate tonight 🙂

  38. “Robberbutton on the other hand is wrong- No one ‘beats’ anyone on anything so he either has to accept that Pete Whitehead is not always correct or say something constructive that will actually help this debate.”

    Nope. Pete is right. There is an absolute majority of right wing parties here.

    He won the argument, so you have been beaten.

  39. No you are wrong. He hasn’t won. Nobody has. In fact the 2005 result clearly shows majority support for Labour and the Lib Dems over the Tories and UKIP so I wouldn’t go all sycophantic if I was you.

  40. ”I don’t understand why Pete Whitehead is constantly bullying a 20 year old.”

    I don’t know why he is either- He wouldn’t do it to anyone else so why pick on me?

  41. For Heaven’s sake this site is becoming pathetic. I don’t see how it is bullying to flag up factual inaccuracies made by other posters. I don’t see what relevance the age of said poster has to do with anything, nor am I aware how one is able to ascertain the age of other posters. Why do you say I would not do it to anyone else? I absolutely would have made the same case if anyone else had said on this thread what you did regarding there being a centre-left majority because it is a false proposition. I don’t care who made it.
    A Brown I take strong exception to your accusation that I am constantly bullying anyone and I believe it is defamatory. For the most part I ignore the posts of The Results along with those of the increasing number of people who have started posting rubbish on this site amongst whom it seems we can now count you.
    The only other recent occasion I can remember saying anything in response to the Results which he might see as ‘picking on him’ was to gently suggest that his series of closer looks at past results was rather superfluous given the availability of such data elsewhere on the internet.
    Please produce evidence that I have been ‘constantly bullying’ The Results or withdraw that allegation

  42. ”For the most part I ignore the posts of The Results along with those of the increasing number of people who have started posting rubbish on this site amongst whom it seems we can now count you.”

    Hang on a second… Where did you get that from Pete? Just because there’s new posters on this site doesn’t mean they post ‘rubbish’ at all.

    ”Please produce evidence that I have been ‘constantly bullying’ The Results or withdraw that allegation”

    To be perfectly honest Pete it’s actually nice to know that a fellow poster on here is actually concerned about me and while I thank A Brown for his intervention I think I’m perfectly capable of defending myself.

  43. ” Just because there’s new posters on this site doesn’t mean they post ‘rubbish’ at all.”

    I didn’t say that because they are new it meant that they posted rubbish did I? I said that there have been an increasing number of new posters recently (eg. Bob, Windsofchange) who post pretty much nothing but shit.

    “To be perfectly honest Pete it’s actually nice to know that a fellow poster on here is actually concerned about me and while I thank A Brown for his intervention I think I’m perfectly capable of defending myself.”

    Clearly he doesn’t think you are – he patronisingly deems you to young to be able to do so. I think when I was 20 years old I would have taken offence at somebody making that kind of assumption about me, but that’s your concern not mine.
    My concern is that I have been libelled by A Brown

  44. Has he libelled you by saying you are ‘constantly bullying’ me?

  45. Not wanting to be involved in the wider arguement, there is a case for saying that much of the EDP and BNP vote was formerly made up of Labour voters, many of whom have reverted to their former voting patterns in other areas of the country. There is a case to argue that for much f the recent UKIP support as well, although less evidence from the votes cast in 2010.
    Whether or not party identification reliably describes political views is a much more mixed argument. Some of the most appalling racists and misogynists I have ever met voted for Labour and ‘far left’ parties. I once had a stand up row at a Burnley Labour Party meeting in the 1980s with a ‘future prospect’ for the party who was arguing that you shouldn’t send Asian bus drivers to white areas as it was “disrespectful”.

  46. “No you are wrong. He hasn’t won. Nobody has. In fact the 2005 result clearly shows majority support for Labour and the Lib Dems over the Tories and UKIP so I wouldn’t go all sycophantic if I was you.”

    Why does 2005 trump 2010?

    Why do all LDs get automatically classed as centre left in your eyes?

    Right of centre parties had an absolute majority in the most recent general election, ergo there is no centre left majority here, and so you were wrong, and were defeated in an argument.

  47. I was not defeated. You sound very harsh. Technically speaking there is not really a centre-right or a centre-left majority because the BNP and English Democrats’ votes here in 2010 could not all be attributed to right-wing voters. I don’t know why you have insisted on reactivating this argument but alas…

  48. Let’s not get personal on this site, if possible.

  49. That was a reply to a lot of people on this site, not the person who happened to post last before me.

  50. Barnaby is a kind and fair-minded poster, and his advice upthread to The Results is excellent. The Results, you should take notice of what Barnaby said there.

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