Boston & Skegness

2015 Result:
Conservative: 18981 (43.8%)
Labour: 7142 (16.5%)
Lib Dem: 1015 (2.3%)
BNP: 119 (0.3%)
Green: 800 (1.8%)
UKIP: 14645 (33.8%)
Independent: 170 (0.4%)
Others: 467 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 4336 (10%)

Category: Safe Conservative seat

Geography: East Midlands, Lincolnshire.. Includes the whole of the Boston council area and the southern part of East Lindsey.

Main population centres: Boston, Skegness, Wainfleet All Saints, Burgh le Marsh, Ingoldmells, Kirton.

Profile: A largely rural seat in the South Lincolnshire fens, north of the Wash. Boston was a Hanseatic port in the Middle Ages and a hotbed of religious dissent, the pilgrim fathers originally attempted to depart from here, and Boston Massachusetts is named for the town. The modernised port today remains a major local employer and Boston is the major population centre in the seat. Elsewhere agriculture and tourism dominate. Skegness was a small fishing village and port until the 19th century, but boomed as a Victorian holiday resort and remains a popular seaside town retirement location. Ingoldmells to the north of Skegness is the site of the first Butlins holiday camp and the Fantasy Island amusement park. Other towns and villages in the constituency include Burgh le Marsh and Wainfleet All Saints, site of Batemans Brewery.

Politics: The seat has been held by the Conservatives since its creation in 1997, and the predecessor seats since before the Second World War. However in good years for Labour they can run the Conservatives very close - in 1997 and 2001 the Conservative majority was reduced to three figures. This is consistently one of UKIP`s strongest seats in the country, they received 9.6% of the vote here in 2005, 9.5% of the vote in 2010 and in 2015 won a third of the vote, their highest share of any seat other than Douglas Carswell`s Clacton. At a local level Boston council was controlled for four years from 2007-2011 by the Boston Bypass Independents - a single issue campaign that won the local elections from nowhere and was almost wiped out at the following election four years later..

Current MP
MATT WARMAN (Conservative) Former journalist. First elected as MP for Boston & Skegness in 2015.
Past Results
Con: 21325 (49%)
Lab: 8899 (21%)
LDem: 6371 (15%)
UKIP: 4081 (9%)
Oth: 2449 (6%)
MAJ: 12426 (29%)
Con: 19329 (46%)
Lab: 13422 (32%)
LDem: 3649 (9%)
UKIP: 4024 (10%)
Oth: 1445 (3%)
MAJ: 5907 (14%)
Con: 17298 (43%)
Lab: 16783 (42%)
LDem: 4994 (12%)
UKIP: 717 (2%)
Oth: 521 (1%)
MAJ: 515 (1%)
Con: 19750 (42%)
Lab: 19103 (41%)
LDem: 7721 (17%)
MAJ: 647 (1%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

2015 Candidates
MATT WARMAN (Conservative) Journalist.
PAUL KENNY (Labour) Boston councillor.
DAVID WATTS (Liberal Democrat) Born 1966, Batley. Educated at Huddersfield Polytechnic. Lecturer and qualified solicitor. Broxtowe councillor since 1999. Contested Broxtowe 2005, 2010, Newark by-election 2014.
ROBIN HUNTER-CLARKE (UKIP) Born Boston. Educated at Skegness Grammar School and Chester University. Lincolnshire councillor since 2013.
VICTORIA PERCIVAL (Green) Educated at Kitwood Girls school. Runs a small business.
ROBERT WEST (BNP) Born 1955. Former army officer and teacher, now clergyman in his own church. Former South Holland councillor for the Conservative party. Contested East Midlands 2009, 2014 European elections, Norwich North by-election 2009, Lincoln 2010.
CHRIS PAIN (Independence from Europe) Businessman. Lincolnshire councillor since 2013, originally elected as UKIP.Contested Louth and Horncastle 2005, Boston and Skegness 2010 for UKIP, East Midlands 2014 European Election for An Independence From Europe.
LYN LUXTON (Pilgrim) Designer.
PETER JOHNSON (no description)
Comments - 679 Responses on “Boston & Skegness”
  1. Just 8 BNP candidates this time compared to 338 in 2010:

    Boston & Skegness
    Dagenham & Rainham
    Hornchurch & Upminster
    Old Bexley & Sidcup

  2. Christ help us those ‘straw phone polls’ can’t be real can they?

  3. I recently conducted a straw poll on the usefulness of straw polls. The results were:

    USELESS – 26%
    FABRICATED – 71%
    I AM PAUL WAY – 3%

    The sample size was 0, but that doesn’t matter, because I’ve never done a wrong straw poll in my life.

  4. HA HA exactly!

  5. You missed out “None of the above”

    But otherwise I agree with your Straw Poll

  6. Straw polls my arse.

  7. I prefer curly straws

  8. If those are real straw polls then I’m a Dutchman.

  9. In that case, who do you think is in the lead in Amsterdam North East?

  10. Wouldn’t like to say LOL

  11. Having just conducted a straw poll of Amsterdam North East I can conclude that having phoned four people the results will be

    73% – Paul Way
    12% – SNP
    2% – MRL
    13% – None of the above

  12. LOL now that’s the deduction of irony! I have just conducted my own straw phone poll of Amsterdam North East and the results from 10 of my mates on a stagnight there were-
    Cannabis Preservation Party- 62%
    Red Light District Democratic Party- 33%
    None of The Above- 5%

    In addition to the above figures I am confident that this sample is conclusive and weightable.

  13. Not deduction of irony LOL definition HA HA!

  14. The girls in the red light district said “We are Not getting a fair crack of the Whip”

    The girls in the red light district said “We are Not getting a fair crack of the Whip”
    April 13th, 2015 at 4:40 pm

    Nice one! Now that is funny!

  16. Got to be a comfortable Tory hold here.

    I predict:
    Conservative: 43%
    Labour: 23%
    UKIP: 23%
    Liberal Democrat: 7%
    Others: 4%

    Not calling second place though!

  17. You really don’t fancy UKIP’s chances, do you Mr, Gropecock?

  18. If you’re asking if I think they’re going to win Boston & Skegness, then absolutely no I don’t!

    They’ll win Clacton. But I think that’ll be it.

  19. Fair enough. From a purely partisan perspective, I won’t be unhappy if your predictions come to pass.

  20. Aha I think a lot of people will get peeved about our ‘wonderfully straightforward’ electoral system again.
    I can see UKIP getting around a tenth of the vote and finishing with one seat.

    Of course I’ve been wrong before..

  21. I think UKIP will get closer to the Tories but essentially Gropecock’s forecast has to be quite likely given the extraordinary disappearance of UKIP from the national campaign. Combined with the poor choice of candidate here it must make the Tories very strong favourites now.

  22. ” Combined with the poor choice of candidate here it must make the Tories very strong favourites now.”

    Selecting a 21 year old who looks like a 6th form schoolboy for this winnable seat was not one of UKIP’s smartest moves.

    I think the candidate and his old man stitched up the selection. typically short-sighted and selfish private gain over a loss to the party in an eminently winnable seat. they just blew it with the selection.

  23. It isn’t a private gain if he doesn’t win

  24. The UKIP choice of candidate here has got to be one of the more bizzare aspects of this election.

    Still, I except a narrow Tory hold, and it to be a lot closer than Clive is suggesting.

  25. Last 5 polls, combined Con and UKIP shares:

    Survation: 51%
    Populus: 47%
    YouGov: 48%
    Panelbase: 49%

  26. Surely the youth of a candidate only harms their Party’s chances if his main opponent is on OAP? Here, both are young.

  27. Prediction – Conservative hold by a small margin. Majority of between 1,000-3,000 votes:

    Con: 36%
    UKIP: 34%
    Lab: 18%
    Lib Dem: 5%
    Others: 7%

  28. Lancs Observer, The relative ages and also the gender is almost impossible to predict unless you live in the constituency, really.

    And the balance changes over the years.

  29. James Peel……………….You are absolutely spot on. The hustings were fixed and I have personal knowledge of that. I was in the shortlist together with Hunter Clarkes friend (Neil Hamilton). Hunter Clarke saw my hustings speech, CV and private manifesto 2 months before the hustings. He actually chose the shortlist as he was on the selection committee and was to act as the campaign manager. They emailed me the day before and informed me that he was included and Hamilton dropped out. As he is the Branch Chairman, all his branch were to vote for him. The stich up was rigged by Farage and the NEC. further details available as I have all the emails to back this up.

  30. Revision of my prediction from 17/4/15. I think the majority will be more like 14% than 20%..

    Conservative: 40%
    UKIP: 26%
    Labour: 25%
    Liberal Democrat: 6%
    Green: 1%
    BNP: 1%
    Others: 1%

  31. Conservative Hold. 5,000 majority. UKIP 2nd.

  32. About time Boston had a Monster Raving Looney candidate. I think he’d sweep the boards!

  33. The Conservatives are moving to local government policies which heavily favour aeas opf the country whichhave historically been poor, but for which this is no longer the case. Scotland is the obvious, and particularly scandalous example. In addition politicians and civil servants count exoenditure in large cities like Manchester (again partiicularly) as promoting regional equality whilst depriving outlying parts of the various regions, such as Blackpool, Skegness or indeed Clacton and South Thanet, of necessary fundingon a massive scale.

    Given the great extent to which successive Gorenments have actiively disciminated against Boston and Skegness, to my mind the question is not why UKIP did so well here; but on the contrary why they did not win.

  34. I’m not sure it was so surprising – this was always seen as a UKIP target. I was more surprised by Hartlepool, Dagenham and Rainham and Mansfield which all went under the radar a bit. On the other hand they ultimately did quite badly in some target seats like Great Yarmouth and Castle Point.

  35. Another way of putting it is that Labour was unpoplular last May and switchers to UKIP came more from Labour and less from the Tories than people expecred. UKIPs leadership and earlier supporters were mainly former Conservatives and proved unable to do as much as they could and perhaps should have done to encourage their potential ex-Labour support.

  36. I expect because UKIP’s old Brexit above all else went down well there (Shetland was one of only two counting areas to vote no in 1975, and the Common Fisheries Policy probably means they still lean out), but not the broader platform they ran on this time with their greater profile.

  37. It’s interesting to note that UKIP got roughly what a lot of people were expecting them to get in this constituency, including some who thought they might win the seat. The big surprise was that the Labour vote was so low and the Tory correspondingly higher.

  38. xxx

  39. .

  40. ..

  41. *cough*

  42. 76-24 Leave.

  43. 76% for LEAVE here! I think it’s the best result for LEAVE thus far!

  44. As I predicted 🙂

  45. “A view from Brexitland: Boston, the town that voted strongest to leave the EU”

  46. As long as they keep Neil Hamilton away from everything I guess…

    With respect, I’m not sure all of the above are particularly keen to be MPs. Long hours, not all that lucrative. Endless hours in dull select committee meetings, staying in the surgery till late on Friday to listen about Mrs Miggins’s trouble getting planning permission, and endless hate-mail on Twitter. Even in 2015, many high-profile MEPs stood in complete no-hoper seats – Patrick O’Flynn , for example, stood in Cambridge, an island of liberalism in a sea of far better prospects for UKIP.

  47. Castle point I reckon

  48. Heywood and Middleton

    Surely it would make more sense for UKIP if Dr. John Bickley or whatever he’s called stood there again – he’s achieved two impressive results, increasing his number of votes from the b-e in the GE to leave it a top target.

    He’s obviously a non-scary type of UKIP candidate and people tend to rather admire the tenacity of candidates trying the same seat over a long time if they’re not overtly aggravating characters.

  49. Did the MP here campaign for Brexit?

    He could be treading on thin ice if not.

Leave a Reply

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)