Boston & Skegness

2015 Result:
Conservative: 18981 (43.8%)
Labour: 7142 (16.5%)
Lib Dem: 1015 (2.3%)
BNP: 119 (0.3%)
Green: 800 (1.8%)
UKIP: 14645 (33.8%)
Independent: 170 (0.4%)
Others: 467 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 4336 (10%)

Category: Safe Conservative seat

Geography: East Midlands, Lincolnshire.. Includes the whole of the Boston council area and the southern part of East Lindsey.

Main population centres: Boston, Skegness, Wainfleet All Saints, Burgh le Marsh, Ingoldmells, Kirton.

Profile: A largely rural seat in the South Lincolnshire fens, north of the Wash. Boston was a Hanseatic port in the Middle Ages and a hotbed of religious dissent, the pilgrim fathers originally attempted to depart from here, and Boston Massachusetts is named for the town. The modernised port today remains a major local employer and Boston is the major population centre in the seat. Elsewhere agriculture and tourism dominate. Skegness was a small fishing village and port until the 19th century, but boomed as a Victorian holiday resort and remains a popular seaside town retirement location. Ingoldmells to the north of Skegness is the site of the first Butlins holiday camp and the Fantasy Island amusement park. Other towns and villages in the constituency include Burgh le Marsh and Wainfleet All Saints, site of Batemans Brewery.

Politics: The seat has been held by the Conservatives since its creation in 1997, and the predecessor seats since before the Second World War. However in good years for Labour they can run the Conservatives very close - in 1997 and 2001 the Conservative majority was reduced to three figures. This is consistently one of UKIP`s strongest seats in the country, they received 9.6% of the vote here in 2005, 9.5% of the vote in 2010 and in 2015 won a third of the vote, their highest share of any seat other than Douglas Carswell`s Clacton. At a local level Boston council was controlled for four years from 2007-2011 by the Boston Bypass Independents - a single issue campaign that won the local elections from nowhere and was almost wiped out at the following election four years later..


Current MP
MATT WARMAN (Conservative) Former journalist. First elected as MP for Boston & Skegness in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 21325 (49%)
Lab: 8899 (21%)
LDem: 6371 (15%)
UKIP: 4081 (9%)
Oth: 2449 (6%)
MAJ: 12426 (29%)
2005*
Con: 19329 (46%)
Lab: 13422 (32%)
LDem: 3649 (9%)
UKIP: 4024 (10%)
Oth: 1445 (3%)
MAJ: 5907 (14%)
2001
Con: 17298 (43%)
Lab: 16783 (42%)
LDem: 4994 (12%)
UKIP: 717 (2%)
Oth: 521 (1%)
MAJ: 515 (1%)
1997
Con: 19750 (42%)
Lab: 19103 (41%)
LDem: 7721 (17%)
MAJ: 647 (1%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
MATT WARMAN (Conservative) Journalist.
PAUL KENNY (Labour) Boston councillor.
DAVID WATTS (Liberal Democrat) Born 1966, Batley. Educated at Huddersfield Polytechnic. Lecturer and qualified solicitor. Broxtowe councillor since 1999. Contested Broxtowe 2005, 2010, Newark by-election 2014.
ROBIN HUNTER-CLARKE (UKIP) Born Boston. Educated at Skegness Grammar School and Chester University. Lincolnshire councillor since 2013.
VICTORIA PERCIVAL (Green) Educated at Kitwood Girls school. Runs a small business.
ROBERT WEST (BNP) Born 1955. Former army officer and teacher, now clergyman in his own church. Former South Holland councillor for the Conservative party. Contested East Midlands 2009, 2014 European elections, Norwich North by-election 2009, Lincoln 2010.
CHRIS PAIN (Independence from Europe) Businessman. Lincolnshire councillor since 2013, originally elected as UKIP.Contested Louth and Horncastle 2005, Boston and Skegness 2010 for UKIP, East Midlands 2014 European Election for An Independence From Europe.
LYN LUXTON (Pilgrim) Designer.
PETER JOHNSON (no description)
Links
Comments - 676 Responses on “Boston & Skegness”
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  1. The White Other number here is large.

    Which constituencies have had the largest increase in it since 2001?

  2. UKIP have gained Boston Coastal.

    UKIP 826 (45.8%) +20.6%
    Con 730 (40.4%) – 14.6%
    Lab 249 (13.8%) + 4.1%.

  3. Interesting stiuff keep it coming

  4. This is hitting labour and lib dems aswell, we’lll have to see a lot more though

  5. It doesn’t seem to be hitting the Labour vote, they’re up almost everywhere (hardly a surprise given where they were four years ago).

  6. 2 more UKIP gains in Boston (I dare say not entirely unrelated to concerns about immigration)

    BOSTON FISCHCROFT

    UKIP 837 (35.2%) +35.2%
    Ind 736 (31%) + 31%
    Con 606 (25.5%) -25.4%
    Lab 197 (8.3%) -1.5%

    BOSTON EAST

    UKIP 675 (41.1%) +41.1%
    Con 313 (19%) -18.8%
    Ind 164 (10%) +10%
    Ind 156 (9.5%) +9.5%
    Lab 0

  7. Yes, but they are not up very much though.
    It means they are down against the last two years.

  8. The Conservatives have lost control of Lincolnshire.

    They just lost Bourne Castle to the Lincolnshire Independents by 77 votes.

  9. Yes, indeed.
    We have had a very bad result in the eastern side of the country – but I’m delighted we’ve just held Somerset, and resisted the swing well in Dorset.
    I was in Surrey today and it felt good “on the ground”.
    But the characteristics of Lincolnshire (and parts of Essex) are somewhat different and they wanted to give us a kicking.
    I do think some questions will be asked of the lacklustre Labour and Lib Dem performances aswell though – but we need to see more results.

  10. Final Lincolnshire vote shares:

    Con 58,119 (36.1%)
    UKIP 39,380 (24.4%)
    Lab 29,919 (18.6%)
    Linc Inds 16,816 (10.4%)
    LD 7,082 (4.4%)
    Others 9,793 (6.1%)

    Electorate: 551,106
    Total votes: 161,109
    Turnout: 29.2%

    Seats:

    Con 36
    UKIP 16
    Lab 12
    Linc Inds 8
    LD 3
    Ind 2

    Con short by 3 of majority.

  11. Change in share of vote:

    Con -10.5%
    UKIP +21.2%
    Lab +6.0%
    LD -14.6%
    Linc Inds +1.3%
    Ind -0.3%
    Others -3.2%

    Change in seats:

    Con -25
    UKIP +16
    Lab +6
    LD -2
    Linc Ind +4
    Others +1

  12. UKIP polled 24.4% in Lincolnshire but they didn’t contest 16 of the 77 divisions.

    They actually polled 30.7% in the seats they were contesting: 39,380 votes out of 128,329.

    I presume that when Rallings & Thrasher make their national projection they take into account the fact that parties don’t contest every seat.

    If this is correct then the 30.7% figure is more important than the 24.4% percentage in terms of the national projection, (of course taking into account the fact that Lincolnshire is one of UKIP’s best areas.)

  13. Revealingly UKIP has so far done best in Lincolnshire.

    This is a working class non-affluent county which has in the last decade experiencd mass immigration.

    I think we’re seeing three rough voting blocks forming:

    Labour – public sector + non-white
    Conservative – middle class private sector
    UKIP – working class private sector

    The LibDems don’t have a voting block only personal votes, tactical votes and heritage votes.

    The UKIP block is the one suffering from globalised capitalism and metropolitan bigotry. While these continue – and they will for the rest of the decade at least – UKIP will continue to grow stronger.

    The Labour and Conservative voting blocks are shielded from the effects of globalisation and sometimes benefit from it or support it.

    Which is why the Labour and Conservative leaderships underestimated the UKIP threat and now struggle to deal with it.

  14. “I do think some questions will be asked of the lacklustre Labour and Lib Dem performances aswell though”

    True JJB, but I think more questions need to be directed to the so called ‘Conservative’ party. I’m shocked that Gay marriage and more international aid didn’t get us more votes!

  15. I look at what the Tories are doing on welfare – the other day I spoke to a one-legged man who has been told he isn’t disabled – and yet still they’re not right-wing enough for some of you. Just sayin’.

  16. Disabled is a term which has been allowed to be so misused that the genuine disabled are now suffering because of it.

    If you want someone to blame Barnaby you should start with disability ‘industry’.

    People with a vested interest in extending the definition of disabled as wide as possible.

    Ditto the poverty ‘industry’ and the overseas aid ‘industry’.

  17. Quite frankly they are not right wing enough for me at all. The example you give Barnaby points to a lack of common sense which seems to run through all mainstream political parties at the moment.

  18. Thats a gross simplification Richard. UKIP performance is actually very patchy and almost all of their South Shields vote share came from Conservatives & Lib Dems

  19. If UKIP are to gain a seat in the next election then this one is the most likely

  20. ‘Disabled is a term which has been allowed to be so misused that the genuine disabled are now suffering because of it.’

    Maybe but if you’ve got one leg I don’t think there can bev much doubt that you fit the correct definition

    I simply don’t buy this not right wing enough argument with regard to the current government – and I think those arguing are just devoid of any sort of moral compass – something which is increasingly common in the UK, as shown by the huge support in UKIP – an uncaring and fundamentally unChristian party

  21. leave god out of it because its a big can of worms

  22. Won’t be surprised if Farage stands here at the 2015 General Election but if he doesn’t Simmonds is toast here come 2015.

  23. Whoever the UKIP candidate is in this seat at the 2015 General Election, I’m now very sure that they’ll unseat Simmonds. He must be very worried today!!

  24. I’m not sure whether Farage would choose to stand here. The problem is that the main issue in this seat is immigration and he might not want to be so closely associated with that one particular issue, which is what would happen if he did stand in Boston & Skegness.

  25. Imagine what what would happen if there was a by-election here.

    With regards to 2015, I would be very surprised if UKIP didn’t come at least third here.

  26. UKIP would win a by-election here by a mile. But I’m still sceptical about their chances in a general election.

  27. Anyone remember the Michael Douglas film Falling Down ?

    Where an ordinary suburban man goes on the rampage against the oppressions of modern society.

    At the end when the cops have arrested him they ask Michael Douglas why he became a bad guy.

    His response goes something like “Bad guy ??? I’m the good guy. I did everything the government told me to do. I went to college, I got a job, I worked hard, I served my country, I obeyed the law, I paid my taxes, I raised a family. And then they took it all away from me and gave it to them.”

    Expect more and more of this mentality as the state reneges on its promises over the next generation and inequality continues to grow.

    This is the ‘UKIP scream’ and why no speeches or listening initiatives or message changes or policy announcements from the political class will work.

    Nor will economic improvements – on the contrary as the gains will be concentrated among the top 10% they will make the UKIP scream even louder.

  28. It’s all about expectations. People are actually far better off today in absolute terms than they were in the 1990s or 1960s, but they felt much more affluent in those decades compared to today.

    The only explanation is that in the 1960s and 1990s the economy was able to deliver a standard of living which actually exceeded expectations, whereas today most people expect to be able to live what by any historical standards is a fairly lavish lifestyle and when it doesn’t materialise they’re not happy and feel cheated.

    Modern-day communications mean that people can instantly see the sort of lifestyles that the top 10% enjoy, indeed have them rubbed in their faces on a constant basis.

  29. I agree with Richard’s phrase – metropolitan bigotry.
    One silver lining is this has sent the Lib Dems – a party so loved by that tendency with support in the media – into a tailspin,
    but there are of course ironies in this – and the obvious danger to the Tories is is splits our potential votes – and of course we need Lincolnshire et al in the Conservative family.

  30. Victotria Ayling was indeed elected in Spilsby Fen – Lincolnshire County Council Elections,
    in the East Lindsey section, but surely in this seat.

    She of course stood as a Conservative in Great Grimsby and did well in 2010.
    I am sorry she has left the party.

  31. Joe

    What do you think of Osborne tweeting pictures of clowns and a Downing Street source describing UKIP voters as “life’s losers” ?

    Do you find it depressing when you canvass on behalf of these people ?

  32. life’s losers? goodness me………that really isn’t a wise thing to say.

  33. ‘life’s losers? goodness me………that really isn’t a wise thing to say.’

    It’s certainly not a wise thing say but it’s got an element of truth to it

    Rather than life’s losers – as some undoubtedly are – I’d say they could be more charcaterised ny their dislike of 21st century Britain as oit currently is

    Peveresely most of the UKIP voters I know are married to Thai women who work for my company, so I’m not sure how their chosen parties line on immigration sits with them, although it hardly suggests they are the closet racists of popular imaginaion

  34. Whether or not it has an element of truth, it is certainly not the sort of thing no.10 should dream of saying in public. It is exactly the opposite of Cameron’s more measured response to UKIP’s success.
    Incidentally, today’s & yesterday’s polls make very disappointing reading for the Tories. UKIP have predictably surged since last week, and they have clearly eaten more into the Tory than the Labour vote – the Tories are at only 27% this morning, their lowest ever in a YouGov poll, with Labour 11% ahead on 38. The narrowing of the Labour lead which was clearly seen in all polls for the fortnight or so before the local elections has, at least for now, come to an end. This is obviously nothing remotely like fatal yet, but it must be a serious worry for Central Office.

  35. ‘Whether or not it has an element of truth, it is certainly not the sort of thing no.10 should dream of saying in public. It is exactly the opposite of Cameron’s more measured response to UKIP’s success’

    I disagree

    As with Micheal Howard in his spat with John Tyndal of the BNP in the run-up to the 2005 election, the Tories seem to be terrifuied of taking UKIP on and exposing them for what they are

    If you put the issues of immigration and Europe to one side, UKIP’s manifesto for the local elections looks as if it was written by a comedian, with so many holes in it for the Tories to expose

    I find your reaction to whole thing remarkable Barnaby. Surely as one of the few genuine socialists left, you must be more horrified than anyone of having UKIP anywhere near government

  36. Most of them seem to be the backbone of the country actually
    and people who should be in the Conservative family.

    I’d fire whoever said that.

  37. “If you put the issues of immigration and Europe to one side, UKIP’s manifesto for the local elections looks as if it was written by a comedian…”

    True, but all the polling shows that it is precisely immigration that is the overwhelming driver behind recent increased support for UKIP. I remain of the view though that immigration does not shift anywhere near as many votes at a GE as it does in mid term contests, and therein lies the main problem UKIP will have in successfully replicating their recent performances in a GE.

    I’ve mentioned on here before the very different results pollsters get when they ask voters “what are the most important Issues facing the country” to when they ask “what are the most important issues facing you and your family”. On the most recent occassion Yougov asked both questions 57% of voters cited immigration as being an important issue when asked the first question. That figure was a three year high, placing it in second place behind only the economy.

    However, in response to the “you and your family question” only 17% cited immigration as an important issue; actually a one percent decrease on the previous month. On that measure immigration came out as being less important than health, pensions and tax as well as the economy.

    I firmly believe that the “you and your family” question is a far more accurate guide to what will decide votes at a GE. That is likely to be to UKIP’s detriment in a GE campaign, as they have little to say about those issues voters rank as more important on that measure. So too will be the fact that voters are likely to focus on who they would rather see as PM.

    I am confident UKIP’s vote will melt away in the course of a GE campaign. The only question is the extent to which that will happen.

  38. Interesting points from Kieran.
    But I think the main reason is the ordinary English man and woman
    feels they are not getting a fair deal.
    These are not “losers” as some idiot said,
    but as the PM says, may be staying up over night to work out how to pay their staff.

    They see people getting away with things while they pay the bills for the country.

    I was canvassing in the CC elections in an area where UKIP did come close but it was very under the radar – I’d have expected to see more of it on the doorstep actually.

    The criticism of the Government is not entirely fair
    but it has to do better over the next 2 years to get these people back.

    Given that UKIP also took votes from the Lib Dems
    and votes Labour should have got as the alternative Government major party,
    both of those must also be slightly disappointed aswell.

  39. Tim – attacking UKIP is obviously what the Conservatives, and Labour, need to do. But to attack those who VOTE for them isn’t a good idea at all. Unless I’ve misunderstood what Downing Street has said. Even if they are referring to the UKIP leadership, it is still pathetic to make personal attacks on them, rather than making a proper critique of their policies. But then, if Cameron is scared of the right wing of his own party, perhaps it’s not surprising that the abuse becomes personal.

  40. I got 23% of the vote in the division I stood which is a very affluent middle-class suburban area dominated by detached housing. Not many of ‘life’s losers’ there and what few there are were mostly telling for the LDs

  41. I should clarify that the little dig above is not directed at the majority of LD tellers I encountered on the day. I should not want to be rude about them generally. I spent most of the day visiting 4 of the 6 polling stations in the division and must have encountered about 20 different people telling for each of the Conservatives and LDs (including both candidates). As I have always found when telling in the past, the atmosphere on these occassions is very amiable and unrankerous and the vast majority of tellers for both other parties were very urbane and pleasant people

  42. Turnout was bad this year – if UKIP had done well one might be expected to have found lots of extra people voting
    but perhaps the people who felt strongly turned out disproportionately
    and those disilussioned with major parties but not defecting to others stayed away.

    However, the irony of that as I said is you would expect to see more UKIP voters on the doorstep but I did not.

    I can only therefore say it must have been a vote very much on the national issues
    and didn’t show up much with local campaignig.

    I hate telling – always get out of it.

  43. You always know what a target ward is on the day when you see a teller there or not.

  44. Perhaps – I dk

  45. ‘Nor will economic improvements – on the contrary as the gains will be concentrated among the top 10% they will make the UKIP scream even louder.’

    UKIP’s policy of a flat tax will only make the top 10% richer still – so it would be absolutely ludicrous for anybody who laments the increasing inequality over the last 30 years to vote for a party that seeks to widen it further

  46. This does show around 48% of the public is considering voting for a right party – if the right can get it’s act together.

  47. Telling has gone rather out of fashion in the Labour Party. We did without them in Stanwell last week for example. However, when there is a particularly large number of party workers, you will still see Labour tellers, as in the general election. I was the only teller of any party in the 2 polling stations I was assigned to on general election day in Hammersmith, but they were overwhelmingly Labour polling districts (in College Park & Old Oak ward), one of which had barely over 200 eligible voters. I had to do telling duties that day because I had a bad leg.

  48. It will be interesting to see how well UKIP do in local elections next year, especially if they are held on the same day as the European elections.

  49. “Rather than life’s losers – as some undoubtedly are – I’d say they could be more charcaterised ny their dislike of 21st century Britain as oit currently is”

    There’s an assumption being made here, which is that because someone is not in favour of the current version of the “future” they’re necessarily against the future in general. Maybe a lot of UKIP supporters are in favour of the future but a different kind of future from the one they see ahead of them.

  50. I certainly don’t see people in Lincolnshire as losers.
    They probably have a pride in the country which keeps them going even if they are dissatisfied with certain things or policies.

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