Boston & Skegness

2015 Result:
Conservative: 18981 (43.8%)
Labour: 7142 (16.5%)
Lib Dem: 1015 (2.3%)
BNP: 119 (0.3%)
Green: 800 (1.8%)
UKIP: 14645 (33.8%)
Independent: 170 (0.4%)
Others: 467 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 4336 (10%)

Category: Safe Conservative seat

Geography: East Midlands, Lincolnshire.. Includes the whole of the Boston council area and the southern part of East Lindsey.

Main population centres: Boston, Skegness, Wainfleet All Saints, Burgh le Marsh, Ingoldmells, Kirton.

Profile: A largely rural seat in the South Lincolnshire fens, north of the Wash. Boston was a Hanseatic port in the Middle Ages and a hotbed of religious dissent, the pilgrim fathers originally attempted to depart from here, and Boston Massachusetts is named for the town. The modernised port today remains a major local employer and Boston is the major population centre in the seat. Elsewhere agriculture and tourism dominate. Skegness was a small fishing village and port until the 19th century, but boomed as a Victorian holiday resort and remains a popular seaside town retirement location. Ingoldmells to the north of Skegness is the site of the first Butlins holiday camp and the Fantasy Island amusement park. Other towns and villages in the constituency include Burgh le Marsh and Wainfleet All Saints, site of Batemans Brewery.

Politics: The seat has been held by the Conservatives since its creation in 1997, and the predecessor seats since before the Second World War. However in good years for Labour they can run the Conservatives very close - in 1997 and 2001 the Conservative majority was reduced to three figures. This is consistently one of UKIP`s strongest seats in the country, they received 9.6% of the vote here in 2005, 9.5% of the vote in 2010 and in 2015 won a third of the vote, their highest share of any seat other than Douglas Carswell`s Clacton. At a local level Boston council was controlled for four years from 2007-2011 by the Boston Bypass Independents - a single issue campaign that won the local elections from nowhere and was almost wiped out at the following election four years later..


Current MP
MATT WARMAN (Conservative) Former journalist. First elected as MP for Boston & Skegness in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 21325 (49%)
Lab: 8899 (21%)
LDem: 6371 (15%)
UKIP: 4081 (9%)
Oth: 2449 (6%)
MAJ: 12426 (29%)
2005*
Con: 19329 (46%)
Lab: 13422 (32%)
LDem: 3649 (9%)
UKIP: 4024 (10%)
Oth: 1445 (3%)
MAJ: 5907 (14%)
2001
Con: 17298 (43%)
Lab: 16783 (42%)
LDem: 4994 (12%)
UKIP: 717 (2%)
Oth: 521 (1%)
MAJ: 515 (1%)
1997
Con: 19750 (42%)
Lab: 19103 (41%)
LDem: 7721 (17%)
MAJ: 647 (1%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
MATT WARMAN (Conservative) Journalist.
PAUL KENNY (Labour) Boston councillor.
DAVID WATTS (Liberal Democrat) Born 1966, Batley. Educated at Huddersfield Polytechnic. Lecturer and qualified solicitor. Broxtowe councillor since 1999. Contested Broxtowe 2005, 2010, Newark by-election 2014.
ROBIN HUNTER-CLARKE (UKIP) Born Boston. Educated at Skegness Grammar School and Chester University. Lincolnshire councillor since 2013.
VICTORIA PERCIVAL (Green) Educated at Kitwood Girls school. Runs a small business.
ROBERT WEST (BNP) Born 1955. Former army officer and teacher, now clergyman in his own church. Former South Holland councillor for the Conservative party. Contested East Midlands 2009, 2014 European elections, Norwich North by-election 2009, Lincoln 2010.
CHRIS PAIN (Independence from Europe) Businessman. Lincolnshire councillor since 2013, originally elected as UKIP.Contested Louth and Horncastle 2005, Boston and Skegness 2010 for UKIP, East Midlands 2014 European Election for An Independence From Europe.
LYN LUXTON (Pilgrim) Designer.
PETER JOHNSON (no description)
Links
Comments - 676 Responses on “Boston & Skegness”
  1. I believe he was a remainer – canvassing this part of the world must have been pretty dispiriting. Actually I don’t think that will matter too much now – the Conservative Party line is to “respect the will of the people” (or at least 52% of them), and I’m sure Mr Warman will be far more Eurosceptic than he was a year ago, and not simply for career reasons. This is one of the places in the country where European immigration has actually damaged local living standards to a significant degree, and an MP’s job is to work in the best interests of his constituents – isn’t it?

  2. My personal take now is that, although I personally didn’t vote for it, and fear there will be consequences, doing what the voters have instructed is the lesser of two evils. Overturning Brexit would result in 17 million voters who would never trust anything a politician said ever again, and the damage that would do to our democracy would make Brexit look like a storm in a teacup.

  3. Quite a good summary of the situation Polltroll, fairly similar to my take on Brexit. I also believe it is possible to make a success of it, if we put our backs into it and the country unites to make the best of it, instead of 40%, including lots of influential people, doing their best to drag the UK away from Brexit.

    Regarding this MP, any perceived inclination of the government towards soft Brexit leaves him very vulnerable, especially if he was a Remainer. I agree that in most Tory seats where the MP is committed to implementing the vote even if they were a Remainer, they should be ok – but this seat is extremely Brexit, particularly related to immigration as you say, and so I think the situation is different.

  4. Apparently, Farage is thinking of standing as a UKIP candidate in the forthcoming General Election. If he were to stand anywhere, surely this seat would be his best chance of winning considering 76% of voters in Boston voted LEAVE in Boston and 71% voted LEAVE in East Lindsey (Skegness) in the EU Referendum?

  5. “surely this seat would be his best chance of winning “- It’s a Tory held seat. Nope.

    Hartlepool – even pre-incumbent-departure – was UKIP’s best chance in the whole country. Now is absolutely undoubtedly is.
    They are closer to Labour than the Tories are to them. Farage has profile and it could be a goer.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hartlepool_(UK_Parliament_constituency)#Elections_in_the_2010s

  6. Thanks for the info Advisably Anon.

  7. I have a sneaky feeling Farage will go for Clacton…

    Nuttall, I’m really not sure. Heywood and Middleton?

  8. Clacton would I think leave too much of an [unfavourable] comparison of ‘success’ between himself and Carswell, but it would be interesting, and something that didn’t occur to me.

    Standing against Tim Farron would be amusing.

    Nuttall… pffft. Maybe he shouldn’t stand at all. Bootle again.

  9. Paul Nuttall is running here

  10. UKIP obviously have given up the notion they can take a Labour seat. Is this a telling move? That is UKIP more likely to get Con w/c votes than Labour wc voters.

    Nuttall will be lucky to get 20% here in Bands.

  11. Cast iron Tory win.

  12. Alex F – seats not votes.

    After all the Labour vote is going to fall (including here).

  13. This was a stupid move by Nuttall, IMO

    Bootle
    Stoke Central
    Possibly Rotherham

  14. I don’t see why. The UKIP Leader will always stand in a top target seat of theirs and wasn’t this the most Leave seat v a Remain MP. Bootle again would have been daft.

  15. “The UKIP Leader will always stand in a top target seat of theirs and wasn’t this the most Leave seat v a Remain MP.”

    This would have made sense in 2015, but UKIP have to move on from remain versus leave now because, having had the vote, we’re all leavers of one sort or another.

  16. It’s a Tory-held seat…. So he can’t even increase the UKIP vote let alone take it.
    In terms of perception – unlike a Lab-held seat – he also can’t claim to have ‘reduced the majority’ of the incumbent party.

    Nuttall is a poor fit. His parachuting distance has increased even further, and obviously ‘replacing Labour in the North’ is questionably achieved by targeting a safe Tory seat on the Lincolnshire coast.

  17. PT – I’d level that argument at Farron or Blair, but UKIP’s very reason for existing was Leave before anyone else.

    Advisa – I don’t follow that logic at all. Of course he COULD if Labour or non-voters go to UKIP here.

    Indeed the fact Labour are nowhere in a seat where they managed over 40% in 2001 is probably another reason here was chosen. Labour voters don’t just exist in Labour-held seats. In fact most of them don’t, especially since the collapse in Scotland.

  18. It is clear from the opinion polls that UKIP are not going to win anywhere this time..

  19. Yes I tend to agree. It would take spectacular bucking of the trend for Tim Aker to manage it. AFAIK he’s the only one where he’s still in the running in theory as just over 30% can win you that seat.

    The bookies do suggest a couple of ‘Other’ gains are possible, but this could well be the Ind in E Devon or a Green in Bristol rather than UKIP. I can’t see any further DUP or SF gains but one is possible.

  20. Hartlepool is possibly the best bet for UKIP, though Heywood and Middleton and a couple of others have the advantage that Tories definitely aren’t in the running, so it’s a more obvious 2-horse race between them and Labour with less splitting of the ‘Brexit’ vote.

  21. Cllr Nigel Welton has defected from Labour to the Conservatives here.

    He said, “I don’t want to go back to the 1970s.”

    The last remaining Labour Cllr (Paul Gleeson) has defected to the Ind Group, in order to remain on committees. He said he will retain his Party membership.

    Boston Council’s make-up is now:

    16 Cons
    7 UKIP
    4 Inds
    3 Others

  22. The MP for B&S informed the house at PMQs that he said he didn’t want to take the country back to 1973. Clearly he forgot Heath was in power in 1973.

  23. Good riddance. He might have had the decency to tell his local party he felt like that before he was selected.

  24. A very odd choice of words given the district he represents.

    If there were a list of constituencies ranked by number of voters who’d love to go back to 1973, this would be near the top.

    One of the highest average ages in the country, many of whom are ex-miners from Notts/Derbys who retired out to their beloved Skeg. For them 1973 was a time of plenty, they had the government over a barrel and their pay was rising like a hot air balloon, they were digging out coal like there was no tomorrow (when not on strike).

    Plus few immigrants, people could leave their doors open etc, proper Gene Hunt nostalgia.

  25. Matt W – lol I doubt many Tory MPs would think the Heath Govt was a successful era.

  26. Hemmy: I think this is a fairly good microcosm of the gulf between the views Tory MPs and Tory voters on why they want Brexit.

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