Bootle

2015 Result:
Conservative: 3639 (8.1%)
Labour: 33619 (74.5%)
Lib Dem: 978 (2.2%)
Green: 1501 (3.3%)
UKIP: 4915 (10.9%)
TUSC: 500 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 28704 (63.6%)

Category: Ultra-safe Labour seat

Geography: North West, Merseyside. Part of the Sefton council area.

Main population centres: Bootle, Litherland, Crosby.

Profile: A tough, working class port just to the north of Liverpool. Bootle was a proudly independent Victorian port, a town of red brick terraces and thriving docks. With the containerisation of the port and the massive decline of the docks the area went into terminal economic decline and remains stricken by poverty and deprivation.

Politics: Bootle is one of the safest seats in the country. Between 1997 and 2005 it was the very safest, with Labour majorities in excess of sixty percent. While the addition of part of southern Crosby in the 2010 boundary changes made it marginally less monolithic, it remained the fifth safest seat in the country.


Current MP
PETER DOWD (Labour) First elected as MP for Bootle in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 3678 (9%)
Lab: 27426 (66%)
LDem: 6245 (15%)
UKIP: 2514 (6%)
Oth: 1414 (3%)
MAJ: 21181 (51%)
2005*
Con: 1580 (6%)
Lab: 19345 (76%)
LDem: 2988 (12%)
UKIP: 1054 (4%)
Oth: 655 (3%)
MAJ: 16357 (64%)
2001
Con: 2194 (8%)
Lab: 21400 (78%)
LDem: 2357 (9%)
Oth: 1643 (6%)
MAJ: 19043 (69%)
1997
Con: 3247 (8%)
Lab: 31668 (83%)
LDem: 2191 (6%)
Oth: 546 (1%)
MAJ: 28421 (74%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
JADE MARSDEN (Conservative)
PETER DOWD (Labour)
DAVID NEWMAN (Liberal Democrat)
PAUL NUTTALL (UKIP) Born 1976, Liverpool. Educated at Savio High School and Edge Hill University. Former lecturer. Contested Bootle 2005, 2010, Oldham East and Saddleworth 2011 by-election. MEP for the North West since 2009.
LISA TALLIS (Green)
PETE GLOVER (TUSC) Contested Bootle 1997 for Socialist Labour, 2001 for Socialist Alliance, 2005 for Socialist Alternative, 2010 for TUSC.
Links
Comments - 304 Responses on “Bootle”
  1. I’ve said it on here many times, this too is my seat, though I don’t actually live in the town of Bootle itself. (I’m in Waterloo). I think FWIW not that it matters much given how extremely safe Labour are here, that the TUSC man Pete Glover might get as much as 2% given he’s been standing for years, but then again maybe he will be squeezed down by Peter Dowd and the Greens.

  2. Let us not forget that Shirley Williams was once the MP for PART of this seat.

    If I remember correctly, Education was a big issue in the by-election which she won.

  3. Ran into the Green candidate this lunchtime (I assume it was Lisa herself) and wished her luck, but added that I understood FPTP and what seat she was campaigning in.

    She seem upbeat, saying she wanted to give it a go else what was the point of getting out of bed in the morning.

  4. Prediction- (This is my seat)
    Dowd (Labour)- 70%
    Nuttall (UKIP)- 18%
    Marsden (Conservative)- 5%
    Newman (Lib Dem)- 3%
    Tallis (Green)- 2.5%
    Glover (TUSC)- 1.5%

  5. Labour Hold. 20,000 majority. UKIP 2nd.

  6. Nuttall didn’t show for the only hustings being held in the constituency this week – which sort of sums up his chances.

  7. Didn’t he?

    Was this the hustings at St. Luke’s in Crosby last night?

    I had sort of hoped to go, but my little girl takes priority so had to look after her instead.

  8. I didn’t know about that one. Was it a Bootle or Sefton Central hustings?

  9. It was a Bootle hustings.

    I don’t know if links are allowed but if you search for St. Lukes twitter account you can see a picture from the hustings. Can’t tell if Nuttal was there or not.

  10. I have just looked and don’t think he is there.

  11. Labour will be doing well if they get as high as 50% this time.

    Will UKIP fall back from the vote they got last year, as this is not a European election?

    Do the polls show that some UKIP voters last year are migrating back to other parties.

    Which candidate has been getting regular exposure in the Bootle Times, Crosby Herald, and the Liverpool Echo?

  12. I really must challenge the accuracy of the profile of the seat given in the “pen picture of this seat.

    It is NOT in terminal decline.

    The Seaforth container dock is always very busy with Exports of Range Rovers and a regular weekly turn around of Imports and Exports to the USA.

    There is a big trade in scrap metal exports.

  13. Merseymike – Nuttall also declined the Liverpool Echo HQ Q & A, as he was booked by Sky News, Bretbart and BBC apparently.

  14. Merseymike – I just spotted that the Tories aren’t standing in all but one of the wards here. They usually stand in all of them.

  15. Nuttall, cons and libdems did not show at the bootle hustings. I will be voting for someone who did.

  16. 2015 Result

    Peter Dowd – Labour 33,619 74.5% +8.0%
    Paul Nuttall – UKIP 4915 10.9% +4.8%
    Jade Marsden – Conservative 3639 8.1% -0.9%
    Lisa Tallis – Green 1501 3.3% +3.3%
    David Newman – Lib Dem 978 2.2% -13.0%
    Peter Glover – TUSC 500 1.1% 0.0%

    Turnout 64.4%

    LABOUR HOLD

  17. That’s a pretty dreadful result for Paul Nuttall. I expected Labour to be near 70% but I also thought Nuttall would be close to 20%.

  18. Merseyside remains a Labour fortress. They now have Wirral West, performed well in Wirral South and significantly increased their majority in Sefton Central. These are among Labour’s ‘posher’ seats relatively speaking.

  19. No doubt Peter Dowd has this job for life now!

  20. The Results – Either life or until he is deselected.

    Deep down, no one really wants MPs in their mid 80s anymore (hence Joe Benton) – though now you’ll point out Dennis Skinner!

  21. Gerald Kaufman and David Winnick are both well over 80.

  22. For the record, it transpires that the David Newman who stood here for the Lib Dems is the same man who previously stood for them in 1997 in Surrey Heath and 2010 in Mid Norfolk.

  23. I saw that on Twitter as well, you are aware its from 2014? Obviously it didn’t happen and Dowd got the nomination and subsequently the seat and frankly these days anyone with the name Blair isn’t going to get nominated for anything in the Lab party.

  24. Cos the vast majority of people of all political persuasions are thick is the sad answer to that question and most other questions pertaining to the public.

  25. But there is an interesting phenomenon whereby old news stories go viral because people don’t realise they’re old. It seems to happen a lot with celebrity deaths.

  26. I think it was just some of the Corbynites having two minutes’ hate.

  27. My own seat moving into second place, good to know my vote will be made even more useless…

  28. Not as much as you’d think. there are some really REALLY rough parts in the Croxteth, Norris Green and Gilmoss estates,

    Tuebrook is a real mixed bag, some multi ethnic inner city terraces that aren’t anything special but some quite nice houses around Newsham Park and the housing association flats along Murihead are very respectable for the most part.

    West Derby village bears all the hallmarks of a early 20th century development that was probably super affluent back in the day but is a lot more middle of the road now, that being said I’d expect it to be reasonably marginal anywhere else in the country.

    But there are also some decidedly middle class bits particularly on the plush Croxteth Park development.

    All in all I’d say its would definitely be a safe Lab seat wherever it was but its present majority is certainly being inflated massively just by the fact its in Liverpool.

  29. Forest Gate and…..never heard of Loxford. I really preferred the old Newham points of the compass. The BC seem to have got hung up on the names of insignificant places which are really known locally only.

  30. Rivers10 – do you intend to stay in Liverpool for work? I forgot to ask after congratulating you on your degree.

  31. Some of the seat names are utterly stupid, I saw one tweet pointing out that the new Holborn and St Pancreas doesn’t actually contain Holborn and barely contains St Pancreas, tucked as it is right in the bottom corner of the seat. Why couldn’t they have just called the seat Camden Town?

  32. Lancs
    Thanks for the congratulations 🙂

    No intention of moving as of yet but I never say never, most all of my family and friends live on Merseyside so it would be quite the decision to uproot, there are more important things than money after all.

    If I did decide to move it probably wouldn’t be down South though, too expensive, I’ve just never really seen the appeal, I have some family in Lancaster though and I’ve always though I wouldn’t mind living there, if you can get over the flooding that is.

  33. Maxim:
    OMG. Bring back the compass points.
    Forest Gate is at least fairly well-known in London – a postal area E7.But just using a ward name, most people wouldn’t have a clue where it was.

  34. And we’re back! Hard to see anything other than a Labour hold and UKIP going backwards. It will be interesting to see turnout, which I suspect will be somewhat depressed from Labour voters refusing to turnout.

  35. No UKIP MP standing here, despite Paul Nuttall being the candidate last time around.

  36. Shadow Chief Sec to the Treasury, Peter Dowd has told BBC Moneybox that Labour’s plans do not involve raising the personal allowance for income tax.

    This is therefore a tax rise for most compared with the Govt’s proposals for the next 5 years, contrary to Labour’s previous claim that 95% would not pay more in tax.

  37. I thought it only fair to say on here – as Mike H doesn’t post here much anymore – that I agree 100% with Merseymike on Vote 2007/2012, when he said tonight that there’s too much Party politics in local govt; that most cllrs are useless at casework in his experience and that:

    “There’s far too many councillors” and

    We have “created another layer of know-alls who take credit for just about everything” [but not blame]

    I also agree re Mike re the well known LD tactic of saying the direct opposite of themselves even in different parts of the same borough/city.

    Needless to say, Mike is now being attacked by both Lab & LD cllrs.

    [Mike was however wrong on funding being the reason- for the decline per se – as others have pointed out since, especially business rates]

  38. I would introduce STV for local councils and end these one party rule councils full of corrupt useless politicians

  39. Has it worked in Scotland? (genuine question)

    It might just replace corrupt permanent one party rule with a permanent corrupt coalition.

  40. What we might see is more participation from the voters.

    Though I’m not sure there’d be much point in Liverpool, with second placed candidates regularly getting single digit percentages.

    I think a system that is designed to prevent one party having such a massive majority on a council, whilst at the same time ensuring that voting actually means more… should be welcomed.

    In Leeds we have a Lab administration (or rather leadership) that is easily inferior to the last one that finished in 2015, and for their incompetence they’ll be rewarded with a bigger majority of seats.

    If the leadership was any good I’m sure most wouldn’t mind, but they’re dire. Four Cllrs quit the group to sit as independents. Or three, one or the other!

  41. That’s an entirely different problem. I don’t know how you have it in Leeds but with direct mayoralties I’ve found the council’s leadership can make sweeping changes with little opposition. In Leicester the Mayor just runs the city and the councillors are pretty redundant.

    It seems pretty bad in Mansfield where Independents have held the office ever since its creation in 2003 and appointed a cabinet of anyone but Labour despite Labour having the most seats. The Mayor has been able to redraw the boundaries which favoured the Independent Forum. It just seems bizarre to me that you shut the largest party out.

  42. “It just seems bizarre to me that you shut the largest party out.”

    So presumably you think that, in 2010, Nick Clegg did the right thing in forming a government with the Conservatives? Wouldn’t it have been wrong for him to “shut the largest party out” by trying to govern with Labour?

  43. Incidentally I believe Stoke is in a similar state to Mansfield – the council is run by a Conservative/Independent coalition despite Labour having the most seats. Not that surprising as Stoke and Mansfield are very similar politically.

  44. I don’t think there was realistically any chance of rainbow coalition in 2010. I do think a Conservative/Lib Dem coalition was a pill too large to swallow for Red Dems and politically Clegg may have done better holding the Tories to randsom DUP style .

    When I was in Stoke I was under the impression Labour ran the council…

  45. Polltroll – Hounslow too was run by a minority coalition from 06-10.

  46. Polltroll
    Re the coalition of 2010 I think the issue for most wasn’t that they went into coalition with the Cons (though that alone will have poisoned their rep with some) its that they were such utter pushovers. Clegg has since semi admitted in interviews that he badly misread how the public saw the coalition talks. His view (Clegg’s) was that as the much smaller coalition partner (that had actually lost seats in the election) the onus was on him to do the most compromising (a view that was undoubtedly pushed by his negotiation partners David Laws and Danny Alexander who were both basically Tories anyway) thus they ultimately became something of a pushover and didn’t act like the kingmakers they were making big demands from the Tories. I mean we only have to look at the DUP who have the Tories grovelling at their feet with only a fifth of the MP’s to see what the Libs could have done.

    This blunder ultimately reached its peak with the tuition fee’s U turn and its with this in mind that I’ve never been able to respect Clegg. Any sensible politician would have made that a red line (given it was basically the Libs flagship policy) I don’t think anybody would have been bothered that they couldn’t implement it (after all they didn’t win the election) but Clegg should have outright vetoed any attempts to raise fee’s. His failure to do so though showed what an utter joke the Libs had become.

    I couldn’t vote in the 2010 election but I followed it and I must embarrassingly admit I was rooting for the Libs. The coalition with the Cons concerned me but it wasn’t what lost them my vote, it was their behaviour in coalition particularly the tuition fee’s U turn that did it for me.

  47. Rivers – I wouldn’t be embarrassed. You’re not the first or the last person to be deceived by a politician. Ultimately, whenever you decide to put your trust in anyone, there’s a chance you will be let down.

  48. “…they ultimately became something of a pushover and didn’t act like the kingmakers they were…”

    But, Rivers, they weren’t really in the position of kingmakers. The situation at the time was such that a Conservative led government was the only game in town. With the parliamentary arithmetic as it was a Labour led administration would have existed on perpetual parliamentary life support unable to achieve anything of note. The only other option open to them would have been to stay in opposition, raising the question of what the point of the party was if it was going to refuse power when presented with the opportunity to exercise it. Realistically Clegg had very little choice.

    The point about exercising power also where the comparison with the DUP falls down. They would never enter a coaliton at Westminster, so their image isn’t damaged if they refuse to do so.

    You are right that the Lib Dems should have vetoed the tuition fee rise, but wrong if you assume that would have insulated them entirely from the post-coalition backlash. The research done in this field shows that junior coalition partners almost always experience a decline in support at the subsequent election.

    I am certain that there is certainly nothing they could have done to retain your support. Judging by your comments on here you are well to the left of them. If it hadn’t been tuition fees that put you off them it would have been something else.

  49. Having grown up in St Albans a Lib Dem run council led by an orange booker I was always wary of the Lib Dems

  50. Luke Senior – “Though I’m not sure there’d be much point in Liverpool with second placed candidates regularly getting single digit percentages”

    I can only assume you have never seen City Council results from Liverpool over the past 35 years. In fact far from that happening regularly or across the city, I think it only happened in one or two of the 30 wards and that was because it was held on the same day as a General Election. 2010 was the first year Labour had all of the MPs and a majority on the Council.

    Wards that vote 70% Labour in a GE in Liverpool have for decades voted only 20-50% Labour in locals. How else do you think Labour won all 5 seats in 1997 and in 1998 lost the Council for the next 12 years.

    I assume you were thinking of Knowsley – although again, in what are famously safe Labour wards in the General, at local elections Labour are run close in several wards if they’re contested and fought.

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