Bootle

2015 Result:
Conservative: 3639 (8.1%)
Labour: 33619 (74.5%)
Lib Dem: 978 (2.2%)
Green: 1501 (3.3%)
UKIP: 4915 (10.9%)
TUSC: 500 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 28704 (63.6%)

Category: Ultra-safe Labour seat

Geography: North West, Merseyside. Part of the Sefton council area.

Main population centres: Bootle, Litherland, Crosby.

Profile: A tough, working class port just to the north of Liverpool. Bootle was a proudly independent Victorian port, a town of red brick terraces and thriving docks. With the containerisation of the port and the massive decline of the docks the area went into terminal economic decline and remains stricken by poverty and deprivation.

Politics: Bootle is one of the safest seats in the country. Between 1997 and 2005 it was the very safest, with Labour majorities in excess of sixty percent. While the addition of part of southern Crosby in the 2010 boundary changes made it marginally less monolithic, it remained the fifth safest seat in the country.


Current MP
PETER DOWD (Labour) First elected as MP for Bootle in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 3678 (9%)
Lab: 27426 (66%)
LDem: 6245 (15%)
UKIP: 2514 (6%)
Oth: 1414 (3%)
MAJ: 21181 (51%)
2005*
Con: 1580 (6%)
Lab: 19345 (76%)
LDem: 2988 (12%)
UKIP: 1054 (4%)
Oth: 655 (3%)
MAJ: 16357 (64%)
2001
Con: 2194 (8%)
Lab: 21400 (78%)
LDem: 2357 (9%)
Oth: 1643 (6%)
MAJ: 19043 (69%)
1997
Con: 3247 (8%)
Lab: 31668 (83%)
LDem: 2191 (6%)
Oth: 546 (1%)
MAJ: 28421 (74%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
JADE MARSDEN (Conservative)
PETER DOWD (Labour)
DAVID NEWMAN (Liberal Democrat)
PAUL NUTTALL (UKIP) Born 1976, Liverpool. Educated at Savio High School and Edge Hill University. Former lecturer. Contested Bootle 2005, 2010, Oldham East and Saddleworth 2011 by-election. MEP for the North West since 2009.
LISA TALLIS (Green)
PETE GLOVER (TUSC) Contested Bootle 1997 for Socialist Labour, 2001 for Socialist Alliance, 2005 for Socialist Alternative, 2010 for TUSC.
Links
Comments - 304 Responses on “Bootle”
  1. Neil – UKIP have only just begun standing in many wards in Lpool and Knowsley etc. They were 2nd in 7 Lpool wards last year at their first attempt, with 20% in a couple. They came within 150 votes in one ward each in Knowsley, Halton and Sefton.

  2. prediction for 2015-

    Lab- 68%
    UKIP- 23%
    Lib- 5%
    Con- 4%
    TUSC- 2%

  3. I doubt the Lib Dems will save their deposit here tbh, but this will be a labour hold untill the day I die, this could be the safest labour seat in the country. I agree UKIP will be a clear second here especially if Paul Nuttall stands.

  4. Paul Nuthall is from round here isn’t he?

  5. Are Labour selection shortlists published online?

  6. I think he was born in Bootle Robbie

  7. Ukip largely took votes straight from the LibDem here as they collapsed.

  8. UKIP deputy leader Paul Nuttall reselected as candidate for Bootle:

    https://twitter.com/BBCNWT/status/562528847464501248

  9. I predict he’ll take second place (although for a seat like Bootle that’s probably not that big a feat).

  10. What did UKIP get in the European election here? I don’t think they will be any seat in Britain which has a higher UKIP vote in May than in the Euros and almost all will be 10% or more lower.

  11. On the Lib Dems’ North West candidate list, Dave Newman is now listed as being the Lib Dem candidate for this seat, and not James Murray-
    http://www.northwestlibdems.org.uk/2015-candidates/

  12. bm11, not sure about Bootle specifically, as the counting took place according to local authority. Bootle falls in Sefton Metropolitan Borough in which UKIP came second behind Labour. UKIP got around 19k votes, to Labour’s 23k. The Conservatives were on 11k or so.

  13. The Sefton European vote for UKIP was heavily weighted towards Southport, not Bootle

  14. It’s a shame results weren’t given by constituency as in 1999 and 2004. PS Southport has/had a higher turnout in both locals and Euros, so the UKIP % may have been the same in both. The difference being 25% can get you within 150 votes of a seat in Southport, whereas it could mean you’re still 50% behind in Bootle.

  15. Why is Nuttall standing in this seat?

    OK he stood here the last two elections but as a high profile UKIP member it would surely make sense for him to stand somewhere more promising for UKIP.

    Its a bit like Diane James bizarre adoption in North West Hampshire.

    If UKIP are serious , they really needed to make sure their best candidates were standing in the seats which they stand a chance of gaining! They are going to find winning seats hard enough anyway and this kind of approach just makes any advance even less likely.

  16. Consensus is that they don’t want to actually win.

  17. It’s his home seat, (mine too), and he first stood locally as a Conservative way back in 2002 before joining UKIP. He’s been the candidate here for years, and regularly contested his own ward of Derby managing second place behind Labour.

  18. I think Paul Nuttall wants to stay in his own seat, in some respects you could even say he is a bit like Bootle’s second MP.

  19. Hardly! But its part of wanting to appear as much of a presence in Labour as well as Conservative areas.

    Problem is Nuttall may be from Botle but he is a former history lecturer and a right wing Conservative, and we are going to make sure everyone knows the latter

  20. I imagine the simple sight of Nigel Farage with his Margret Thatcher Mug would remove much of the potential UKIP would have in Merseyside and many other areas of the UK.

  21. I think Nuttall has long had something of a personal vote in these parts, he’ll easily manage second place, albeit still distant behind Peter Dowd.

  22. I say ‘these parts’, I should know given I live here!

  23. The interesting thing is that Nuttall clearly did worry Labour here (before he was an MEP and Deputy Leader). I’m sure even Merseymike will admit that Labour in some wards in Bootle and Knowsley were only opposed by paper candidates for 20+ years. Nuttall’s 30% and 2nd place – as well as ex Labour Cllrs joining UKIP – was probably a much needed ‘kick up the backside.’ It no doubt also focused attention on the octogenarian MP, in the same way the CLP in nearby Lpool West Derby did when they lost 4 safe wards in the 1998-2003 period. [Although its fair to say that was due to a dysfunctional elderly Labour Group as much as the then absentee MP]

  24. PS I neglected to say that Labour attacked Nuttall in leaflets in Derby ward, so he must have worried them. As double jobbing is now banned, I doubt he wants to be an MP instead of an MEP. He may aspire to be Leader though and is only in his thirties.

  25. Derby ward certainly, in terms of regarding his threat seriously – but to be frank given that half of the party in the north visited Bootle in that election it was justified. The ex-Labour councillor who joined was regarded as a bit of a joke, though – he had been expelled from the party some years before. No other Labour ex-councillors joined.

    As for Joe Benton, the reasons for dissatisfaction with him were entirely separate from Ukip and would have been dealt with anyway

  26. I think 30% may be a plausible target for Nuttall.

  27. How on God’s earth could Paul Nuttall have ever been employed as a history lecturer? It certainly supports the view that our education standards are going downhill. From his TV appearances he seems to have no intelligence whatsoever…I presumed he used to be a nightclub bouncer or something similar.

  28. I heard him speak at a meeting 4 or 5 years ago: I remember him being rather funny and personable and certainly not a simpleton .

    Does look like a bouncer to be fair

  29. HH – that’s certainly a snobbish view, which no doubt aids UKIP.

  30. Pete Glover has been reselected as TUSC candidate. He polled 472 votes in 2010.

  31. HH, if TV interviews were an accurate gauge of intelligence London would be a third-world city after this amount of time under Ken and Boris.

    I’m not comparing Nuttall to either, merely pointing out that you just can’t tell. Same goes for panellists that have shockers on QT.

    Very boring seat in that Labour will romp home and UKIP almost certainly second. UKIP’s actual percentage will be interesting though, for the very reasons that Mike hopes will convince people not to vote Nuttall.

  32. The Guardian/Observer have a piece from Dr Rob Ford of Manchester Uni, suggesting that UKIP will get 70-100 2nd places in England. Mark Reckless MP states that that’s an underestimate and he expects well over 100 2nd places.

  33. No surprise that Bootle, Knowsley and Makerfield are 3 of the 9 seats still without a Tory candidate. More surprising are Stockport and Leeds North West.

  34. I’m expecting around 150 second places for UKIP.

    In lots of the seats they’re the only party actually contesting the incumbent party.

  35. I dispute the accuracy of the introduction at the top of the page. The Seaforth Container Terminal handles a greater tonnage than went through the whole port 50 or so years ago. It exports thousands of Range Rovers to the USA.

    Does anyone know which road forms the boundary with Sefton Central? Is it South Road or is it St Johns road?

  36. Decline refers to number of dockers employed here. No, all of Waterloo is now in this seat (since 2010).

  37. Members of my family were born, lived and worked in this constituency going back 100 years or more. Yes, there was poverty between the wars. Bare foot children would wait at the dock gates as the dock workers went home, asking if they still had any sandwiches from their “packed lunch” left over.

  38. Odds on Benton retiring and someone being parachuted in?

  39. ”Does anyone know which road forms the boundary with Sefton Central? Is it South Road or is it St Johns road?”

    I live in this constituency (Waterloo, but used to live in Crosby) and I can tell you it’s neither. I think the boundary with Sefton Central is in fact Moor Lane at one end, as Thornton which is very close to Crosby lies in that seat. At the other end it’s College Road I think, seeing as nearby Blundellsands is also in Sefton Central. And don’t forget that SC stretches all the way out to include Formby, Maghull and even Aintree as well, not a lot of Crosby the town itself is actually in it.

  40. Sorry made a mistake he is retiring. I’ve lost it.

  41. And then there’s all the various villages in Sefton Central- Little Crosby, Thornton, Blundellsands as I mentioned above, Hightown, but then there’s the even smaller villages like Lunt, Melling, Lydiate, Ince Blundell and the smaller yet still Sefton village where the name of the borough actually comes from.

  42. I would say that Little Crosby is extremely Little. I don’t think there have been any new homes built in the village in the last 50 years.

    Do you remember Fort Crosby? I used to play there in the 1950s

  43. Green candidate is Lisa Tallis.

  44. Ah so the Greens will be standing here after all then! They might actually get about 3-4% here I reckon.

  45. If Green meant Irish they’d hold their deposit here, but I doubt the Greens adding PPCs at the last minute will have much of an impact in WWC seats they have no history in. They polled 0%-1% in wards with these demographics across Merseyside in May. They’ll help stop Glover holding his deposit though.

  46. I think they’ll do OK here. They won’t necessarily keep their deposit, in fact it would be a great result for them if they did, but they’ll certainly get a good few votes from the part of Crosby that is actually in this seat.

  47. The seat should NOT be named “Bootle” but I suppose there was a furious row and debate over the name.

    What alternative names were suggested locally?

  48. South Sefton was proposed.

  49. This is the constituency I live in, so despite not being an exciting contest i’am going to make a prediction…

    Labour – 71%
    UKIP – 15%
    Conservative – 6%
    Lib Dem – 4%
    Green – 3%
    TUSC – 1%

  50. My seat also, having moved here from Wallasey. My wife (and her family) are dyed in the wool Labour supporters (They all know Joe Benton and Peter Dowd personally) so my preferences go down like a cup of warm sick with them.

    Labour hold (easy), with UKIP a very distant second.

Leave a Reply

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)