Bootle

2015 Result:
Conservative: 3639 (8.1%)
Labour: 33619 (74.5%)
Lib Dem: 978 (2.2%)
Green: 1501 (3.3%)
UKIP: 4915 (10.9%)
TUSC: 500 (1.1%)
MAJORITY: 28704 (63.6%)

Category: Ultra-safe Labour seat

Geography: North West, Merseyside. Part of the Sefton council area.

Main population centres: Bootle, Litherland, Crosby.

Profile: A tough, working class port just to the north of Liverpool. Bootle was a proudly independent Victorian port, a town of red brick terraces and thriving docks. With the containerisation of the port and the massive decline of the docks the area went into terminal economic decline and remains stricken by poverty and deprivation.

Politics: Bootle is one of the safest seats in the country. Between 1997 and 2005 it was the very safest, with Labour majorities in excess of sixty percent. While the addition of part of southern Crosby in the 2010 boundary changes made it marginally less monolithic, it remained the fifth safest seat in the country.


Current MP
PETER DOWD (Labour) First elected as MP for Bootle in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 3678 (9%)
Lab: 27426 (66%)
LDem: 6245 (15%)
UKIP: 2514 (6%)
Oth: 1414 (3%)
MAJ: 21181 (51%)
2005*
Con: 1580 (6%)
Lab: 19345 (76%)
LDem: 2988 (12%)
UKIP: 1054 (4%)
Oth: 655 (3%)
MAJ: 16357 (64%)
2001
Con: 2194 (8%)
Lab: 21400 (78%)
LDem: 2357 (9%)
Oth: 1643 (6%)
MAJ: 19043 (69%)
1997
Con: 3247 (8%)
Lab: 31668 (83%)
LDem: 2191 (6%)
Oth: 546 (1%)
MAJ: 28421 (74%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
JADE MARSDEN (Conservative)
PETER DOWD (Labour)
DAVID NEWMAN (Liberal Democrat)
PAUL NUTTALL (UKIP) Born 1976, Liverpool. Educated at Savio High School and Edge Hill University. Former lecturer. Contested Bootle 2005, 2010, Oldham East and Saddleworth 2011 by-election. MEP for the North West since 2009.
LISA TALLIS (Green)
PETE GLOVER (TUSC) Contested Bootle 1997 for Socialist Labour, 2001 for Socialist Alliance, 2005 for Socialist Alternative, 2010 for TUSC.
Links
Comments - 304 Responses on “Bootle”
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  1. I see all Scouse MPs didn’t support gay marriage and indeed most didn’t in the Merseyside area. The MP here voted against, as did Southport’s LibDem John Pugh; West Lancs’ Labour MP, Rosie Cooper; Tory Esther McVey in Wirral West, as well as Nadine Dorries and Dr Therese Coffey. Knowsley’s and Sefton Central’s abstained again.

  2. Howarth and Esterson voted in favour last night on Third Reading. Howarth voted in favour last time too while Esterson didn’t turn up/abstained on second reading.

  3. Bill Esterton had a longstanding commitment at Second Reading but told me he would support at Third.

    But most of the MP’s listed above are not Merseyside MP’s. Indeed, only Esther McVey occupies a Merseyside seat.

    The vast majority of Labour Merseyside MP’s voted in favour.

  4. no. they’ve been included because they’re Scousers originally.

  5. Joe Benton must be one of the most socially conservative Labour MPs in parliament. Consistently anti-abortion and anti-gay rights.

  6. There are a handful who would give him a run for his money; almost all on that wing of the party represent ‘Catholic areas’ in the north west of England and west of Scotland.

  7. They’re a dying breed though, T-Dan. Their replacements are rarely of that ilk – if the local council leader does succeed Joe Benton, as is expected locally, he has very different attitudes.

    Its certainly not ‘expected’ – Bootle’s previous MP was Allan Roberts, who was never entirely ‘out’ but everyone knew he was gay, and he was very popular and remembered as a doughty battler for the constituency

  8. well actually Mike the previous MP was Mike Carr – but sadly he didn’t live long.

  9. Pete,

    In 1959 the result in Bootle was Lab 21294 and Con 18379 while in Crosby, the result was Con 29801 and Lab 14745.

    Given that the current expanded Bootle Constituency is effectively ‘Bootle & Crosby South’ what sort of margin would the Conservatives have won on the current boundaries in 1959?

    I assume that this would have been a never to be recovered Labour Gain in 1964 (like Liverpool Walton, Liverpool Kirkdale, Liverpool Toxteth and Liverpool West Derby)?

  10. sounds about right to me Peter.

  11. Joe Benton is one of Bootle’s longest-serving MPs, second only to Simon Mahon, while his predecessor Michael Carr sadly was the shortest-serving for the seat in the post-war period.

  12. what brought on that comment?

  13. A byelection for the Derby ward will take place on 7th November following the death of Cllr Carol Gustafson.

  14. Barnaby – Thanks: yes, that was why I included those MPs. [Of course, Messrs Twigg & Berger aren’t Scousers.] Mike H – John Pugh does represent a Merseyside seat, even if some in Southport rather wish they were elsewhere.

  15. The candidates for the Derby by-election on 7th November are-
    Janice Blanchard (Independent)
    Jack Colbert (UKIP)
    Juliet Edgar (Independent)
    Laurence Rankin (Green)
    Anne Thompson (Labour)
    Graham Woodhouse (TUSC)

  16. Interesting. Wasn’t Jack Colbert the vocal Sefton LibDem Cllr? That’s the 3rd ex Cllr who has defected to UKIP here if so. The other two were ex Labour Cllrs. Paul Nuttall has certainly made an impression.

  17. Is Paul Nutall standing here in 2015? I thought he’d want a vaguely winnable/competitive seat.

  18. I don’t think anywhere in Merseyside would be much good for him. Maybe Fylde would be the party’s best hope in the NW.

  19. I think he is best staying where he is and not doing a Farage. No point moving unless you have a realistic chance of winning. He could get 15% here.

  20. ”Interesting. Wasn’t Jack Colbert the vocal Sefton LibDem Cllr? That’s the 3rd ex Cllr who has defected to UKIP here if so. The other two were ex Labour Cllrs. Paul Nuttall has certainly made an impression.”

    Yes Lancs Observer that is correct. He used to be a Lib Dem councillor for the Molyneux ward in Aintree I think it was, and stood in my home ward of Victoria in 2012 but lost heavily to Labour’s Michael Roche. RE Paul Nuttall were he to stand in a council election again I think it would be in the Linacre ward where he has stood a couple of times before IIRC. I would be surprised if he didn’t stand again for the parliamentary seat in 2015, but if he feels he wants to try his luck elsewhere then good luck to him.

  21. Incidentally I should probably also point out that both the Conservatives and the Lib Dems did not manage to nominate candidates for this by-election. I wonder how many votes Jack Colbert will now be able to poll on a reduced turnout without them standing- TBH, I think he could come second here.

  22. LAB: 72%
    UKIP: 18%
    CON: 4%
    LD: 3%
    OTH: 3%

  23. Alf Doran defected to UKIP but he was a Tory councillor. I don’t think he has retained UKIP membership

    But I’m only aware of one Labour councillor who defected and that was after he had been deselected and removed from the panel of Labour candidates . John Rice. Who was the other one, The Results?

  24. You mean another councillor in Sefton who defected to UKIP? The only one other councillor I could think of who has actually defected from the Tories to Labour would be Les Byrom.

  25. Yes – I can’t think of any sitting Labour councillors who defected, only John Rice and he had already been deselected and left the party.

  26. … to UKIP, that is. A Labour councillor defected to the LibDems but lost his seat and sunk without trace

  27. Which Labour councillor was that?

    In Derby ward, I suspect that even if the Tories and Lib Dems had stood candidates, both would still have lost their deposits.

  28. Paul Larkin. He was a councillor for Derby ward too. It has a bit of a history as far as Labour is concerned.. Deselected councillors, being placed in special measures, and so on

  29. Ah, I see. I wonder how many more defections we’ll see in Sefton in the next few years…

  30. Derby ward by-election result: Labour 903, UKIP 293, Ind 97, TUSC 48, Ind 29, Green 25. 12% swing Lab to UKIP.

  31. That result in full- (Changes are from 2012 Elections)
    Janice Blanchard (Independent)- 29 (2%, N/A)
    Jack Colbert (UKIP)- 293 (21%, +14.0%)
    Juliet Edgar (Independent)- 97 (7%, N/A)
    Laurence Rankin (Green)- 25 (2%, N/A)
    Anne Thompson (Labour)- 903 (65%, -16.0%)
    Graham Woodhouse (TUSC)- 48 (3%, N/A)

    Majority- 610 (44%)
    Swing- +15% From Lab to UKIP.

  32. Correction- UKIP’s change in vote share was an increase of 7%, and the swing was 11.5% from Labour to UKIP.

  33. AndyJS, this message is directed at you- you don’t happen to know anyone or anywhere I can find RE the televised declarations of the two byelections that took place here in 1990- all I’ve been able to find so far is a report about the first one’s campaign on ITN Source.

  34. Not yet, no, I’m hoping to find them some time. You’ve probably already found my uploads of some of the 1991 by-elections: Liverpool Walton, Monmouth, Langbaurgh. I’m about to upload the Kincardine & Deeside by-election special which someone from Scotland has kindly sent me.

  35. Not yet, no, I’m hoping to find them some time. You’ve probably already found my uploads of some of the 1991 by-elections: Liverpool Walton, Monmouth, Langbaurgh. I’m about to upload the Kincardine & Deeside by-election special which someone from Scotland has kindly sent me.

  36. OK fair enough. Yes I have indeed seen all the other uploads, though.

  37. I found this but it doesn’t appear to have any video attached:

    http://www.itnsource.com/en/shotlist/ITN/1990/05/25/T25059016/?s=kinnock

  38. That’s a shame. I think it will be found by someone soon though.

  39. The Results – just been informed from an ex-Echo colleague that the Tories did stand above. I think she’s listed as Ind 29 votes, as they failed to hand in the signed emblem authority in time!

  40. This could certainly be a seat where UKIP becomes the main opposition party in general elections. The combined Tory and Lib Dem vote is tiny here, so any UKIP surge would sink their vote even further. Could see them taking support from Labour too.

  41. Yes, I posted a comment on the Knowsley thread recently saying the same thing.

  42. @LancsObserver
    That is very interesting to hear. So in fact basically the Lib Dems were the only major partt not to field a candidate in the Derby byelection.

  43. My 2015 forecast for Bootle

    Lab 71.2 (+4.8)
    UKIP 12.1 (+6)
    LD 6.6 (-8.5)
    Con 4.5 (-4.4)
    Others 5.6

    Turnout 55.2 (-2.6)

  44. Joe Benton can’t possibly be planning to stand in 2015 can he? He will be 82 then, and 87 by the end of the next parliament.

    On the other hand, this would be a prime seat for a parachutist to be dropped into should there be a list minute retirement.

    The possibilities for ambitious Labour candidates looking for a safe or winnable seat in 2015 seem to be fast drying up fast as there have been relatively few Labour retirements so far, and the party has now selected for most of it’s target seats.

  45. The less scope for Spads/parachuted candidates the better.

  46. Perhaps Benton is taking the Eric Forth / Dennis Skinner attitude, that if he stays in his seat until he drops dead then that will mean a by-election in which it is most likely that a local worthy will be the candidate rather than the parachuted SPAD who would most likely get the seat if they stood down.

  47. This is my home patch. I would predict-
    Benton (Labour)- 73%
    Nuttall (UKIP)- 13%
    Liberal Democrats- 7%
    Conservative- 5%
    Peter Glover- 2%

  48. Yeah Paul Nuttall is from Bootle if I recall. This is the type of seat Labour has taken for granted for so long just it’s a safe one. I’m not sure how good a local MP Joe Benton is (anyone know?) but a UKIP surge here is not impossible to imagine. That is why any selection in the future (when Benton retires) must resist any think-tank director or Labour staffer from London.

  49. @Neil

    Benton is rarely if ever in the local media so that might say a lot. Given how safe this seat is though, unlike Bill Esterson in Sefton Central next door which is a tight marginal seat, he doesn’t really have to be as anywhere near active. He might be quite a competent constituency MP with a very low profile, but all I know for certain is that his favourite issues are to do with abortion and euthanasia I think. RE UKIP, they did rather well in the Derby ward byelection recently, so I think the scope for them to rise here well with the prominence of Mr. Nuttall is quite high.

  50. “if he stays in his seat until he drops dead then that will mean a by-election in which it is most likely that a local worthy will be the candidate rather than the parachuted SPAD ”

    NEC is in charge of shortlisting for by-elections though. So it would depend on
    a) the political climate when the by-election takes place aka if they think the seat is safe anyway.

    b) if they believe the local worthy is good enough in their views to sustain the by-election spotlight.

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