Bognor Regis & Littlehampton

2015 Result:
Conservative: 24185 (51.3%)
Labour: 6508 (13.8%)
Lib Dem: 4240 (9%)
Green: 1942 (4.1%)
UKIP: 10241 (21.7%)
MAJORITY: 13944 (29.6%)

Category: Very safe Conservative seat

Geography: South East, West Sussex. Part of the Arun council area.

Main population centres: Bognor Regis, Littlehampton, Felpham.

Profile: The most westerly of the three coastal seats strung along the south of West Sussex. Bognor is a nineteenth century seaside resort, famous as the place where George V convalesced (earning its royal suffix) and for its large Butlins resort. Seasonal tourism remains an important part of the economy and like many south coast resorts, there is a high proportion of retirees. Littlehampton to the east is rather more industrial, a modest port that is also the home to The Body Shops international headquarters.

Politics: A generally safe Conservative seat, held by the party since its creation in 1997. UKIP have a significant presence here, holding their deposit in 2005 and 2010 and taking second place in 2015.

Current MP
NICK GIBB (Conservative) Born 1960, Amersham. Educated at Maidstone Grammar School, Roundhay School, Thornes House School and Durham University. Former chartered accountant. Contested Stoke on Trent Central 1992, Rotherham 1994 by-election. First elected as MP for Bognor Regis and Littlehampton in 1997. Minister of State for Schools 2010-2012. Minister of State for Education since 2014.
Past Results
Con: 24087 (51%)
Lab: 6580 (14%)
LDem: 11024 (24%)
UKIP: 3036 (6%)
Oth: 2125 (5%)
MAJ: 13063 (28%)
Con: 18183 (45%)
Lab: 10361 (25%)
LDem: 8927 (22%)
UKIP: 3276 (8%)
MAJ: 7822 (19%)
Con: 17602 (45%)
Lab: 11959 (31%)
LDem: 6846 (18%)
UKIP: 1779 (5%)
Oth: 782 (2%)
MAJ: 5643 (14%)
Con: 20537 (44%)
Lab: 13216 (28%)
LDem: 11153 (24%)
Oth: 1537 (3%)
MAJ: 7321 (16%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

2015 Candidates
NICK GIBB (Conservative) See above.
ALAN BUTCHER (Labour) Born Littlehampton. Educated at University College London. Contested Worthing West 2001.
FRANCIS OPPLER (Liberal Democrat) Arun councillor and West Sussex councillor.
GRAHAM JONES (UKIP) Born Southampton. Retired draughtsman. West Sussex councillor and former Adur councillor.
SIMON MCDOUGALL (Green) Born 1967, Rustington. Arun councillor, originally elected as a Liberal Democrat. Contested Bognor Regis and Littlehampton 2005, 2010 for the Liberal Democrats.
Comments - 29 Responses on “Bognor Regis & Littlehampton”
  1. Interesting ‘Eastleigh effect’ split in Arun by-election in Aldwick East 14th March 2013;-

    Lib Dems 383 (33.6%; +20.5)
    Con 357 (31.3%; -22.3)
    UKIP 339 (29.7%; +18.2)
    Lab 61 (5.4%; -5.4)

  2. I’ve done an aggregation of County Council votes. It is for the whole of Arun, since two divisions are partly not in Bognor Regis and Littlehampton (Littlehampton East and Arundel and Wick)

    UKIP – 12742
    CON – 12718
    L/D – 5553
    LAB – 4116
    Others – 823

  3. For this seat as a whole UKIP topped the poll in the locals by a margin of 7.35%. Obviously an extremely long shot at a general election, but with the Libdems very likely to fall back, and Labour not that popular here, I would say a 2nd place finish for UKIP in 2015 is quite conceivable.

  4. This is just the sort of place I would have thought UKIP would poll well in. The fact that there’s no serious contender to the tories should help them, as those tempted to defect will be less susceptible to worrying about letting lab or ld (unlike the Thanet or North Kent seats)

  5. Here’s my calculations of the county council votes within the constituency only. I’ve pro rata’d the votes in the split divisions of Arundel & Wick and Littlehmapton East:

    UKIP: 8,088 (36%)
    Con: 6,542 (29%)
    LD: 4,256 (19%)
    Lab: 2,642 (12%)
    Other: 766 (3%)

    More details on All That’s Left here:

  6. I spy
    the next Solihull

  7. Only joking – Con hold – but UKIP look like they could stay around 12%.
    It looks like Labour is having some trouble overhauling the Lib Dems here.

  8. Yes, Gibb should be okay here against what will probably be rather fragmented opposition.

  9. Survation constituency poll:

    LAB 20%
    CON 37%
    UKIP 27%
    LD 11%

  10. That UKIP share looks too low based on the May results here. I refuse to believe that a change as large as that has taken place since May here.

    I would say at present:

    CON: 32%
    UKIP: 30%
    LAB: 20%
    LD: 15%
    OTH: 3%

    A lot will happen between now and 2015 though.

  11. The May results occurred on a 31% turnout and when UKIP were several points higher in the polls.

  12. well the Survation poll is paid for by a UKIP donor.. are we to presume they are pulling their punches?

  13. There’s something deeply suspect about a few of these Survation constituency polls.

    I cannot see UKIP getting anything like 25% or 30% on a general election turnout in any seat, except perhaps where Nigel Farage chooses to stand.

    It would be extremely beneficial to hear a realistic view on this from a sensible UKIP activist, Pete Whitehead for instance, rather than meaningless ramping from the likes of 111. If Pete were to say that a UKIP share of 25% or 30% may be achievable in some of these coastal seats then I might change my mind….I rather suspect however that he will be as sceptical as to the poll findings as I am.

  14. “It would be extremely beneficial to hear a realistic view on this from a sensible UKIP activist, Pete Whitehead for instance”

    Myth11 as well

  15. Pete posts here now:

    As does David Boothroyd, johnloony, andyajs, Robert Waller, Merseymike, Tim Roll-Pickering, Andrea, doktorb, Richard Allen, John Hemming, swanarcadian… 😉

  16. HH: I agree

    What I think most do show – and this I do agree with – is that UKippers are more likely to have either voted Tory or not at all last time.

  17. I refuse to be called a UKIP activist, being a Conservative activist with past officer roles at area level.

    If people don’t think UKIP will get 25-30% anywhere at all, then they must have their heads in the sand as I don’t know where they have been for the last 2 years.

  18. People won’t just hop back along to my party as they want to stop Miliband. Your average voter probably knows nothing about the electoral situation in their constituency anyway. I reckon that the vast majority of people would not be able to even name their own MP. UKIP is here to stay as a main player for the time being. We need to take that into account when formulating our predictions.

  19. Looking back and musing on the results in this seat (which is next to my own of Worthing West), the last GE saw a truly dreadful Labour result. In 1997 and (especially) in 2001 Labour were edging towards being competitive in this seat and the south coast effect seen in the Brighton seats and Hastings looked to be operating here, albeit in a weaker way. However, the last election saw an 11% slump in the Labour vote back down to a derisory level. They have lost 17% vote share in 3 elections. Both Bognor Regis and Littlehampton are end of the railway line towns and have their areas of deprivation and transient housing, although the more prosperous surrounding areas will probably always ensure a Conservative win here. Even so, the Labour decline here is very marked.

  20. By-election – Littlehampton Town Council, River – 24 June 2014

    LD Berni Millam 263
    Lab 220
    Con 180
    UKIP 178

    Majority 43

    LD gain from Con

  21. Conservative Hold. 15,000 maj

  22. Nick Gibb MP comes out as gay and announce marriage with Michael Simmonds, the chief executive of Populus.

    They’ve been together for 29 years. They met at Adam Smith Institute Next Generation dinner (not sure if it could be described as romantic) when he was 26
    He hasn’t told his family he was gay until last week.

  23. It’s sad that they “kept it secret for 29 years and spent every Christmas and party apart.”

    Although there are many more gay MPs – as well as a few who retired last month, to the point where they’re overrepresented in the House if all came out. Most are known by journalists, but I understand why some don’t and some are married and have presented that image of themselves to the world for decades.

  24. I don’t know why it’s news either way.

  25. No surprise at all

  26. Yes…not sure why this is headline news at all.

  27. Arun UKIP Cllrs Colin Cates & Vicky Rhodes have defected to the Conservatives.

    UKIP Cllr Derek Ambler has gone Indy.

    This leaves just one UKIP Cllr remaining and so no longer a Group.

  28. Aldwick West (Arun) result:

    LDEM: 52.7% (+34.2)
    CON: 35.2% (-16.7)
    LAB: 8.2% (+8.2)
    GRN: 4.0% (+4.0)

    LDem GAIN from Con

    What happened to UKIP here? Not fighting a seat like this seems odd but then, looking at this thread, they do seem to have some problems locally

  29. Bognor Marine Ward By-election, 22.02.18:

    LD 309 33% ( + 33% )
    Lab 252 27% ( + 7% )
    Cons 242 26% ( – 1% )
    Ind 141 15% ( + 15% )

    No Ind (31% last time) or UKIP (24% last time).

    LD Gain from Cons.

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