Blaydon

2015 Result:
Conservative: 7838 (17.4%)
Labour: 22090 (49.2%)
Lib Dem: 5497 (12.2%)
Green: 1648 (3.7%)
UKIP: 7863 (17.5%)
MAJORITY: 14227 (31.7%)

Category: Very safe Labour seat

Geography: North East, Tyne and Wear. Part of the Gateshead council area.

Main population centres: Ryton, Blaydon, Whickham, Birtley.

Profile: A collection of small towns to the south-west of Newcastle. This is former coal mining territory, though towns like Ryton and Whickham tended to house the successful middle-class of Victorian tyneside and remain relatively affluent commuter towns. The seat includes the metrocentre, as of 2013 the largest shopping and leisure centre in the country. The Angel of the North, the giant Anthony Gormley statue that overlooks the A1 as it enters Tyneside, is situated in the constituency just north of Birtley.

Politics: Blaydon is a safe Labour seat, held by the party since 1935. The Liberal Democrats had been in a strong second, but fell to fourth in 2015 with UKIP taking the runners up spot.


Current MP
DAVID ANDERSON (Labour) Born 1953, Sunderland. Educated at Maltby Comprehensive and Durham University. Former miner and care worker. First elected as MP for Blaydon in 2005. Former President of Unison, 2003-2004.
Past Results
2010
Con: 7159 (16%)
Lab: 22297 (50%)
LDem: 13180 (29%)
BNP: 2277 (5%)
MAJ: 9117 (20%)
2005*
Con: 3129 (8%)
Lab: 20120 (52%)
LDem: 14785 (38%)
UKIP: 1019 (3%)
MAJ: 5335 (14%)
2001
Con: 4215 (11%)
Lab: 20340 (55%)
LDem: 12531 (34%)
MAJ: 7809 (21%)
1997
Con: 6048 (13%)
Lab: 27535 (60%)
LDem: 10930 (24%)
Oth: 1412 (3%)
MAJ: 16605 (36%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
ALISON GRIFFITHS (Conservative)
DAVID ANDERSON (Labour) See above.
JONATHAN WALLACE (Liberal Democrat) Gateshead councillor since 1987.
MARK BELL (UKIP)
PAUL MCNALLY (Green)
Links
Comments - 26 Responses on “Blaydon”
  1. 2015 forecast for Blaydon

    Lab 55
    LD 21
    Con 13
    UKIP 8
    Others 3

  2. This is a seat where working-class disillusion with the Coalition could cost the LibDems heavily.

    As I understand it, UKIP intend to stand in every seat next time and one wonders how they will do in seats like this, particularly given BNP disarray. They could challenge the Tories for third place.

    It is difficult to see any party seriously challenging Labour here next time. However, Tony hits the nail on the head when he says that past LibDem performance suggests that support for Labour is not monolithic. It is far from inconceivable that there will be a futre shllenge from either left or right, along the lines of the Nationalist challenges to safe Labour seats in Scotland and Wales a generation ago.

  3. Prediction for 2015-
    Anderson (Labour)- 58%
    Liberal Democrat- 19%
    Conservative- 12%
    UKIP- 11%

  4. Jonathan Wallace, who used to post on the old thread, has been selected as LD candidate. He’s been councillor for Whickham South since 1987 when he was 23 years old.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/guide/seat-profiles/blaydon/comment-page-1/

  5. Strange that we don’t have a UKIP candidate here

  6. That’s the same Jonathan Wallace who stood in Hexham in 1992 and Tyne Bridge in 2001.

  7. Still nothing from the kippers. Odd.

  8. Seems to be the lowest of low profile candidates. No photo on national website, no mention at all on Gateshead/Newcastle Ukip’s website. Perhaps “Mark Bell” is a phantom.

  9. Labour hold. 12,000 majority

  10. Mark Bell is also standing in the local elections, in the same ward as Lib Dem candidate Jonathan Wallace

  11. Lib Dems and Labour out in force throughout the constituency today

  12. I still can’t find out about Mark Bell

  13. Labour and Lib Dems knocked on my door within ten minutes of each other last night. Funny.

  14. Blaydon is down as a very safe Labour seat, but there was a strong LibDem challenge in recent years.

    The LibDem vote has collapsed; but what are the prospects of UKIP winning next time? They need a 15.83% swing and the seat is 135 on their target list.

    It is hard to imagine this seat ever voting Tory, but the activity of the LIbDems in recent years may have made party allegiances more fluid. Perhaps more importantly, it is hard to see what a Labour Party led by Jeremy Corbyn and with a flood of middle-class entrants will have in common with the voters of a working-class seat like this, and indeed one doubts how far such impractical idealists will cre to adapt to the viewpoints of people in seats like this.

    Perhaps I could mention that UKIP needs a uniform 14.80% swing to win 100 seats, but “only” 16.26% to win 150. Of the UKIP targets in this range approximately 20 are currently held by Labour.

  15. I think there’s a clear ceiling on how well UKIP can do in a lot of Labour-held seats, assuming there’s no local issues or scandals to exploit. While the way they’ve handled immigration issues will certainly attract some votes, there will also be many Labour supporters who would never vote for a party with these views. That, coupled with the generally right-wing nature of much of their policy programme means that they are unlikely to advance too much further in what are fundamentally not right wing seats.

  16. Well Simon it depends on which Labour seats you are talking about, on Blaydon you are probably correct that UKIP are not going to challenge for the seat as Labour got nearly 50% of the vote and both UKIP and the Tories were sub 20%. However in certain other Labour seats where the Labour vote is only around 40% (or below) and there is also a significant Tory vote for UKIP to squeeze, think seats like Hartlepool and Stoke-on-Trent North, Labour could be very vulnerable indeed…

  17. You might be right, although I think it’s probably difficult for UKIP to be both the main repository for right-wing votes and a significant home for disaffected Labour people. Especially because, if they make progress to the extent you suggest, then you’ll start getting all the questions about which party UKIP would support in a hung Parliament. It’s difficult to see seats like Hartlepool or wherever electing MPs who would support a Tory government.

  18. UKIP’s best option is probably to be a populist party, with a mixture of right-wing and left-wing policies, a bit like the Danish People’s Party. On some subjects, like paying for care homes for the elderly, they’re quite left-wing.

  19. We have to look at the prospect that if Corbyn becomes Labour leader, as seems very likely, the Labour vote wil split right down the middle. For instance, if the Labour share of the vote here goes down by 24% and the majority of it goes to UKIP, then UKIP are in.

    I would would not be surprised in particular if the number of white men over 25 supporting Labour will not far short of disappears. The ideas of turkeys voting for Christmas comes to mind.

  20. I agree. Labour has done everything possible to alienate white English male voters over the last 15 years and I don’t see that changing much under Corbyn’s leadership. Andy Burnham might have made a difference on a very small scale.

  21. Andy, the problem is that this hostility comes not just, or even largely, from the leadership but from a large group of Labour Party members who want preference for their interests rather than equaltiy, who are not prepared to give those who disagree with them a fair hearing and who behave intolerantly inside and outside the party.

  22. Robert Woof was MP for Blaydon from 1956 to 1979. Interesting surname.

  23. You’d have thought him a better fit for Barking really.

  24. Comes from the same Norse roots as the more common Woolfe.

  25. Dave Anderson has announced he is standing down in June.

  26. The new Labour candidate is Cllr Liz Twist

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