Birmingham, Perry Barr
2015 Result:
Conservative: 8869 (21.5%)
Labour: 23697 (57.4%)
Lib Dem: 2001 (4.8%)
Green: 1330 (3.2%)
UKIP: 5032 (12.2%)
TUSC: 331 (0.8%)
MAJORITY: 14828 (35.9%)
Category: Ultra-safe Labour seat
Geography: West Midlands. Part of the Birmingham council area.
Main population centres: Handsworth, Lozells, Perry Barr, Oscott.
Profile: A seat in urban Birmingham, England`s second city. Perry Barr is the north-western part of Birmingham and consists of the wards of Handsworth Wood, Lozells and East Handsworth, Oscott and Perry Barr. Perry Barr and parts of Handworth Wood are relatively affluent and Oscott is a large, mostly white, inter-war housing development. The most notorious part of the seat though is Handsworth, a tough, multi-ethnic, inner-city area which has suffered repeated outbreaks of rioting and racial tension over the years, most notably in the 1985 Handsworth riots and the 2005 Birmingham Riots.
Politics: Up until the 1970s Birmingham Perry Barr was a marginal seat, the addition of non-white areas like Handsworth in various rounds of boundary changes though have made it into a solid Labour seat.
| Con: | 8960 (21%) |
| Lab: | 21142 (50%) |
| LDem: | 9234 (22%) |
| UKIP: | 1675 (4%) |
| Oth: | 1034 (2%) |
| MAJ: | 11908 (28%) |
| Con: | 6513 (17%) |
| Lab: | 18269 (47%) |
| LDem: | 10321 (27%) |
| UKIP: | 745 (2%) |
| Oth: | 3063 (8%) |
| MAJ: | 7948 (20%) |
| Con: | 8662 (23%) |
| Lab: | 17415 (47%) |
| LDem: | 8566 (23%) |
| UKIP: | 352 (1%) |
| Oth: | 2422 (6%) |
| MAJ: | 8753 (23%) |
| Con: | 9964 (22%) |
| Lab: | 28921 (63%) |
| LDem: | 4523 (10%) |
| Oth: | 1636 (4%) |
| MAJ: | 18957 (41%) |
*There were boundary changes after 2005
Majorities:
1950: Lab – 8,006
1951: Lab – 6,467
1955: Lab – 1,680
1959: Lab – 183
1964: Con – 327
1966: Lab – 3,665
1970: Con – 1,266
1974F: Lab – 2,023
1974O: Lab – 3,204
1979: Lab – 491
1983: Lab – 7,402
1987: Lab – 6,933
1992: Lab – 8,590
1997: Lab – 18,957
2001: Lab – 8,753
2005: Lab – 7,948
2010: Lab – 11,908
Interesting that four times the seat has swing against the national trend.
Interesting stats Andy.
It shows just how well Blair did in 1997.
I recall the Lib Dems targeting this somewhat in 2010 with Karen Hamilton as their candidate.
This must have one of the larger Sikh populations outside some of the West London seats where they have a big presence. Goes for quite a few West Mids constituencies.
Goodness, I really dislike auto-correct. It usually changes the correct word into an incorrect one in my experience. I wrote “swung” but it changed it to “swing”.
The Lib Dems managed to salvage their Perry Barr ward seat by 3.2%, although they have been completely wiped out over the border in Sandwell where they used to hold the other Great Barr wards.
could respect stand here?
In a very belated response to Neil, this seat is one of 9 where Sikhs form more than 10% of those of voting age. Neighbouring West Bromwich East and Warley are 2 ot he others. The largest Sikh presence by far is of course in Southall.
In fact the Sikh population is concentrated in the specific ward of Handsworth Wood, which is the only ward in Birmingham where they outnumber Moslems.
Seemingly still no LD candidate for either Perry Barr or Hodge Hill.
Judging by the Lib Dem website it appears they have selected a candidate – Parmjit Singh. It appears that this is the same Parmjit Singh who has a Labour Councillor in Handsworth Wood before defecting to the Tories. As none of the three Perry Barr ward councillors are standing for them I would suggest their vote will drop considerably.
Khalid Mahmood has a pretty high profile in the city and I would expect an easy hold. Who comes second will be interesting my guess would be the Tories but UKIP will hope to get a good vote in both Oscott and Perry Barr. My prediction would be something like Labour 55%, Tory 15%, Lib Dems, 12% UKIP 10 %.
Labour hold – majority 13,500
The Conservatives will easily take 2nd place here and the Lib Dens will fade into obscurity. It’s only the personal votes for the Lib Dem councillors in the Perry Barr ward which will stop them from totally fading away.
Parmjit Singh is the Lib Dem candidate.
The UKIP candidate for this seat has been stood next to a busy road junction everyday for two weeks, handing out flyers and generally irritating drivers. It has certainly raised his profile but I’m not sure its a very effective campaign tactic, especially as the road leads out of the constituency so I would imagine most drivers are commuters from Walsall etc.
Labour Hold. 15,000 majority. Tories 2nd.
Agree the Conservatives will take a very distant second place here. Harvinder Singh has indeed garnered a great deal of publicity. While Stockland is right that the motorists will be West Bromwich or Walsall voters, the publicity is priceless. Hard to predict however what a Sikh UKIP candidate will do. I’d make a small bet he’ll beat the Sikh Liberal.