Birmingham, Erdington

2015 Result:
Conservative: 10695 (30.8%)
Labour: 15824 (45.6%)
Lib Dem: 965 (2.8%)
Green: 948 (2.7%)
UKIP: 6040 (17.4%)
TUSC: 212 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 5129 (14.8%)

Category: Safe Labour seat

Geography: West Midlands.

Main population centres:

Profile:

Politics:


Current MP
JACK DROMEY (Labour) Born 1948, Brent. Former Deputy General Secretary of the Transport and General Workers Union. First elected as MP for Birmingham Erdington in 2010. Dromey is married to Harriet Harman, MP for Camberwell and Peckham.
Past Results
2010
Con: 11592 (33%)
Lab: 14869 (42%)
LDem: 5742 (16%)
BNP: 1815 (5%)
Oth: 1528 (4%)
MAJ: 3277 (9%)
2005*
Con: 7235 (23%)
Lab: 16810 (53%)
LDem: 5027 (16%)
BNP: 1512 (5%)
Oth: 1162 (4%)
MAJ: 9575 (30%)
2001
Con: 7413 (24%)
Lab: 17375 (57%)
LDem: 3602 (12%)
UKIP: 521 (2%)
Oth: 1693 (6%)
MAJ: 9962 (33%)
1997
Con: 11107 (27%)
Lab: 23764 (59%)
LDem: 4112 (10%)
MAJ: 12657 (31%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
ROBERT ALDEN (Conservative) Birmingham councillor since 2006. Contested Birmingham Erdington 2010.
JACK DROMEY (Labour) See above.
ANN HOLTOM (Liberal Democrat) Contested Birmingham Erdington 2010.
ANDREW GARCARZ (UKIP)
JOE BELCHER (Green)
TED WOODLEY (TUSC)
Links
Comments - 129 Responses on “Birmingham, Erdington”
  1. Lberatd, has anyone ever done any research into the voting patterns of the scrounges (for want of a better term) classes?

  2. For the avoidance of confusion, my post upthread was not necessarily referring to Conservative gains from Labour in byelections, but also favourable swings – so I was thinking of examples like the byelection in Heanor E, Trafford Broadheath & Salford Swinton as well as the Nuneaton, Wirral and now Kingstanding results.

    This isn’t enough of a sample to show a clear trend – it could all be idiosyncratic; hence my comments about the local elections giving us more idea.

  3. Even if they do form a trend, the first three results you refer to are not favourable for the Conservatives – each featured a swing of below 2.5% from Labour to the Tories from 2012. Given that the Tories performed notably poorly in 2012, that doesn’t amount to very much comfort.

  4. Ah yes, but Erdington ward stayed Labour in the middle of the last decade when the Conservatives were winning everything in South Birmingham, and then turned Conservative just as the rest of Birmingham was swinging back to labour. It’s yet another outlier.

  5. I’ve also found it hard to understand why Erdington behaves so differently from other inner city Birmingham wards.

    The Tories held it in 2012 with a fairly comfortable majority. Surprising when at the same election, there was a noticeable drop in Tory support in 3 of the 4 Sutton wards.

    Surely there’s got to be some other reasons for this other than the personal votes of the 3 Erdington Councillors?

  6. Maybe there’s a type of working-class upward mobility thing going on, with Sutton Coldfield being right next to Erdington. At the same time the inner-most part of Sutton Coldfield is moving to Labour because of public sector / middle-class professionals. Another way of putting it is that no other Birmingham ward is so close to Sutton Coldfield without actually being part of that town.

  7. [Jack Dromey] speaks:

    “I expect a significant protest vote for UKIP meaning a bad night for the Conservatives and the Lib Dems.”

    Its not just the Conservatives and LibDems UKIP voters are protesting against.

    But that’s not a message that your missus wants to hear is it.

  8. Did no one ask him about how it went in his own area!?!

  9. Local election results with comparison to 2010 (general election day).

    Labour 48.0% (+ 6.5%)
    Conservative 30.7% (- 4.0%)
    Lib Dem 6.1% (- 9.1%)
    UKIP 9.9% (No candidates)

    The Conservatives repeated their narrow by-election win in Kingstanding (Birmingham’s most council estate ward), where there was also a respectable UKIP vote. Lower UKIP figure because they didn’t stand in 2 wards (C2 L2 this time, C5,L7 total).

    Despite continuing to hold Erdington ward comfortably the Conservative position is hopeless in this seat because they have few votes in Tyburn and Stockland Green.

  10. The declared result in Stockland Green looks wrong .

  11. I was very pleased to see the Conservatives repeating their by-election success and gaining Kingstanding. It’s something I wasn’t expecting, but I knew there was an outside chance it could happen. It’s the first time they’ve won the ward outside of by-election circumstances since the 1960’s.

    Also pleased that the Tories have held on in Sutton Vesey and stopped Labour from repeating the gain they made in 2012, although things were pretty close. Although it was a Tory hold, I’m still convinced that ward is trending Labour long term.

  12. The Conservatives will go into the 2015 general election with more Councillors in this constituency than they had in 2010.

  13. “The declared result in Stockland Green looks wrong .”

    You mean the Labour vote being as high as 3,451? That’s still the figure appearing on the official website:

    http://www.birmingham.gov.uk/elections/local/2014

  14. In the Euro elections in Birmingham, UKIP came second to Labour whereas in the locals the Tories were second:

    Euro election, Birmingham:

    Lab: 93,740
    UKIP: 52,063
    Con: 39,329
    LD: 19,853
    Green: 12,753

    http://www.birmingham.gov.uk/elections/european/2014

  15. Thank you for all the statistics you have posted Andy and for your YouTube videos too. On Stockland Green, the Labour majority apparently went up from 900 in 2012 to 2900 this year, looks like a counting error if its not a transcription error.

  16. Thanks CDB. I’ve posted a comment on the VoteUK forum to see what they think about the Stockland Green result.

  17. Looks like there probably was a counting cock-up in Stockland Green because the Tory vote wouldn’t be as low as this even in their worst years.

  18. Yes, looking back a couple of decades the Conservative vote must be wrong. It was probably 1494 votes rather than the reported 494.

  19. Jack Dromey has been very active locally but has to face Robert Alden who will I am sure will be well resourced and has a significant base in Erdington ward.

    My gut feeling is that Dromey will hold on as incumbency should shore up the Labour vote a bit. A lot will depend on the performance of UKIP and where those votes come from. I suspect that they will pull in quite a large vote in the Pype Hayes area and in Kingstanding. Labour’s big vote will come from Stockland Green and the Tories will hope for a win in both Erdington and Kingstanding.

    My prediction, national swing allowing, would be a Labour majority of around the same size as 2010, but with a big UKIP vote of around 18%, the Liberals will collapse to 5% and that’s only because their candidate has a bit of a base in Tyburn.

  20. Labour hold – majority 4,000.

    This seat isn’t looking good for Labour in the long term.

  21. It’s going against them on the demographics isn’t it. It looks like it will continue to be marginal for a long time to come, but the Tories might not actually be able to gain this until say 2025, that’s if they get close enough on a split vote.

  22. This isn’t a seat the tries will have handed to the on a plate at anytime in the foreseeable future, they’re always going to have to fight for it. It’s probably too early to tell whether they actually stand a realistic chance of gaining it in 2020 or 2025.

    But from Labours point of view they’re fools if they think they can still regard Erdington as a safe seat.

  23. I see. Perhaps UKIP will hamper them for some to come here in any case, but even that’s looking far too ahead for my part also.

  24. If UKIP do get a substantial vote here, then I suspect it will be fatal to the Tory chances, they will need almost all of the anti-:Labour in order to win the seat and that seems unlikely, especially if Labour can put the squeeze on the Lib Dems.

    The big battle on the ground is happening in Kingstanding – in which the Tories currently hold two council seats and chasing the third. The Tory campaign is very aggressive and their appears to be some personal bitterness between the various candidates.

  25. Labour Hold. 5,000 majority.

  26. This isn’t really trending against Labour demographically. It’s more an example of how the white working class vote is now up for grabs. The Conservatives have worked very hard in Kingstanding, and may well manage to take the third council seat, since the council is struggling. (The council is Labour, but only since 2012. A Conservative
    -Liberal coalition ruled from 2004-2012. The problems with the council are therefore non-partisan, but the present incumbents always get the blame.). Kingstanding, like Chelmsley Wood, is prime UKIP territory, but UKIP have failed to get their act together in Birmingham.

    The Labour majority at the general election will be much more than 5000. Shaun seems to have blown a fuse on this one.

  27. Sion Simon is apparently favourite for the Labour candidacy for Birmingham mayor – http://www.birminghammail.co.uk/news/midlands-news/battle-greater-birmingham-mayor-already-11353176#ICID=sharebar_twitter

    Digby Jones – ex-Labour minister who never joined the party and sat as a Crossbench peer after 2010 – considering a run as an independent.

    Unlike Manchester and Liverpool there doesn’t seem to be much interest from current MPs.

  28. Didn’t Birmingham reject having a democratically elected mayor back in 2012?

  29. As did quite a number of cities. The ‘metro mayors’ are different – they cover a wider area and have more power – but it still gives the impression of flying in the face of the decision the public made in a democratic referendum. It is no coincidence they haven’t held referendums for the metro mayors!

  30. Does a local know what happened to Cllr Gareth Compton here?

    The Tory Cllr arrested for saying YA-B should be stoned. I realise he wasn’t prosecuted, but did he step down after that or just lose his seat? [A favour for a colleague, sorry – I wouldn’t usually use a post for that, but I thought may as well use the collective knowledge rather than him sending several emails to find out]. I can see he was a Lambeth Cllr before here and is a barrister by profession.

  31. He didn’t stand in 2011 elections. The Tories held the seat with a new candidate.

  32. Thanks Andrea.

    Ah, I hadn’t realised it was that long ago. Probably explains why we couldn’t find him (politically).

  33. Maxim
    Very likely yes, the main area of UKIP strength in this seat is the very working class Tyburn were I imagine UKIP probably hurt Lab more than the Tories, in the other three wards within this seat though it was probably the Tories that bore the brunt.

    Lab ethnic minority voters in Stockland Green will have insulated them from UKIP’s rise.

    In Erdington proper I imagine the Lab vote is of the middle class public sector variety and UKIP wouldn’t have made huge inroads amongst them while more elderly Tories or working class Tories might have been ripe picking for UKIP.

    The real damage to the Tories though undoubtedly came in Kingstanding the whitest of all the wards where the Tories working class support undoubtedly got munched to pieces by UKIP.

  34. Maxim
    UKIP’s effect on both the Tories AND Lab in 2015 reminds me of that. I have no doubt in my mind Lab wouldn’t have won Chester or Ilford North if it wasn’t for UKIP but conversely they wouldn’t have lost Plymouth Moor View or Telford if it wasn’t for UKIP.

  35. To be fair one could conceivably argue that every seat Lab gained from the Tories was due to UKIP hurting the Tories more than them but also every seat the Tories gained from Lab was for the inverse reason.

  36. Re Morley and Bolton West UKIP have councillors in both seats in former Lab wards and along with Itchen UKIP had some pretty decent vote shares and with the demographics of all three seats being primarily WWC (a demographic we know UKIP do best in) but little to nothing in the way of Labs core supporters either ethnic minority voters, students or affluent public sector workers. This all suggests to me at least that UKIP handed the Tories the seats.

  37. Here’s a segment from a post I made on the Brighton Pavilion thread a while back to Pepperminttea about this very topic that you may or may not have seen. Just clarifies my position on the issue.

    “First we have to look at how Labs vote roughly breaks down. It comes in roughly four main parts.
    1) WWC voters in council estates or working class, lower middle class neighbourhoods.
    2) Ethnic minority voters
    3) Middle class public sector professionals
    4) Students
    There are other groups obviously but their the main sources of Lab support. As we know UKIP do VERY well amongst the first demographic but totally flop amongst the other three. Bearing that in mind lets look at the seats Lab won and lost from/to the Tories

    Won
    Dewsbury is something of an anomaly and I think we can agree that Malik was right and that he only lost in 2010 cos of the intervention of an independent taking a big chunk of Labs Muslim vote, this probably shouldn’t have even fell to the Tories in the first place but anywho…

    Dewsbury UKIP 12%
    Wolverhampton SW UKIP 11%
    Lancaster and Fleetwood UKIP 10%
    Wirral West UKIP 7%
    City of Chester UKIP 8%
    Hove UKIP 6%
    Enfield North UKIP 9%
    Ilford North UKIP 9%
    Brentford and Isleworth UKIP 6%
    Ealing Central and Acton UKIP 4%

    Now compare to the seats Lab lost
    Plymouth Moor View UKIP 21%
    Southampton Itchen UKIP 13%
    Telford UKIP 18%
    Derby N UKIP 15%
    Corby UKIP 14%
    Vale of Clwyd UKIP 13%
    Gower UKIP 11%
    Morley and Outwood UKIP 16%
    Bolton West UKIP 15%

    To conclude UKIP did markedly better in all the seats the Tories gained compared to the ones Lab gained, coincidence? Until further evidence is given yes so we delve deeper.

    Look at all the seats Lab gained, they all have some combination of high levels of Public Sector Workers, Students or Ethnic Minorities, in these seats Labs support is not dependant on the WWC thus UKIP did little harm to them.

    Compared to the seats Lab lost, all are very homogeneous, have little to no student population and compared to other seats few of the middle class public sector workers that Labour can rely on. In all these seats Lab’s vote was near totally dependant on the industrial (oftentimes elderly) WWC and UKIP obviously ate into it significantly, allowing the Tories to slip ahead.

  38. Certainly will primarily because I don’t see them disappearing totally come the next election, I think they’ve achieved enough critical mass to hold onto a decent vote share for at least another election cycle. Thus if they do fall back significantly it will likely benefit one of the main parties more than the other. Which is anyone’s guess.

  39. Morley & Outwood was a strange result, as someone who lives in the constituency.

    People in Morley and Pudsey are notoriously independent rather than voting tribally.

    I’m certain there was a fair element of tactical voting going on, with Labour supporters not inclined to back Balls and switching to UKIP, meanwhile those inclined to vote UKIP saw a chance to kick Labour where it hurts and supported the Tories.

    My predictions for the seat were consistently wrong (laughably so) – Jenkyns will have been boosted by backing Brexit…. I did some campaigning there and the returns were incredibly strong for leave…. but she does have a reputation for being a bit of sheep when it comes to walking through the voting lobbies.

    She might be in bother, if Labour pick someone local with a bit of charisma… or if the boundaries change.

  40. I think the aborted review dismembered this seat into Batley & Morley (safe Lab) with Outwood going into some seat with other Wakefield council wards so this MP is likely to be a one-term wonder unless she fights a more favourable Wakefield seat, in which case she may have a chance

  41. By “this” I of course mean Morley & Outwood as referred to in the two previous comments. Putting Erdington into a couple of West Yorkshire seats would be good going even by the Boundary Commission’s standards – though I don’t completely rule it out

  42. Alden 12,211
    *Dromey 12,055
    Mountshaft 10,841
    Belcher 1,672
    Bitchton 343

    Con gain from Lab
    Majority 56 0.1%
    Swing 7.5%

  43. I know lots of people ended up with egg on their face after the 2015 GE result came in, but it is funny discovering specific comments like this one up this thread:

    “The Labour majority at the general election will be much more than 5000. Shaun seems to have blown a fuse on this one.”

    Actual majority a few days later: 5,129
    🙂

  44. After the debacle that was 2015 would you trust any of them?

  45. Ironically that was one that most people here dismissed as probably inaccurate…

  46. I stopped trusting polling after the general election. I started trusting it again after the Oldham West by-election, which made me realise just how much wronger predictions are without their guidance.

  47. These days I generally ignore the headline figures and look at the trends, are leads going up or down etc.

    I don’t dismiss the figures outright I just take them with a huge pinch of salt, like +/- 10 points rather than the advertised 3.

  48. Especially when all the different companies use different methodologies that would produce different results with the same voters.

    That’s actually one of my biggest irks when people quote the change between two polls done by two different companies as if its in any way comparable, something our incompetent media are only too happy to do…

  49. True dat

  50. Ladbrokes’ Odds for West Mids Mayoral:

    Andy Street (Cons) 1/2
    Sion Simon (Lab) 7/4

    33/1+ the rest.

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