Birmingham, Erdington

2015 Result:
Conservative: 10695 (30.8%)
Labour: 15824 (45.6%)
Lib Dem: 965 (2.8%)
Green: 948 (2.7%)
UKIP: 6040 (17.4%)
TUSC: 212 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 5129 (14.8%)

Category: Safe Labour seat

Geography: West Midlands.

Main population centres:

Profile:

Politics:


Current MP
JACK DROMEY (Labour) Born 1948, Brent. Former Deputy General Secretary of the Transport and General Workers Union. First elected as MP for Birmingham Erdington in 2010. Dromey is married to Harriet Harman, MP for Camberwell and Peckham.
Past Results
2010
Con: 11592 (33%)
Lab: 14869 (42%)
LDem: 5742 (16%)
BNP: 1815 (5%)
Oth: 1528 (4%)
MAJ: 3277 (9%)
2005*
Con: 7235 (23%)
Lab: 16810 (53%)
LDem: 5027 (16%)
BNP: 1512 (5%)
Oth: 1162 (4%)
MAJ: 9575 (30%)
2001
Con: 7413 (24%)
Lab: 17375 (57%)
LDem: 3602 (12%)
UKIP: 521 (2%)
Oth: 1693 (6%)
MAJ: 9962 (33%)
1997
Con: 11107 (27%)
Lab: 23764 (59%)
LDem: 4112 (10%)
MAJ: 12657 (31%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
ROBERT ALDEN (Conservative) Birmingham councillor since 2006. Contested Birmingham Erdington 2010.
JACK DROMEY (Labour) See above.
ANN HOLTOM (Liberal Democrat) Contested Birmingham Erdington 2010.
ANDREW GARCARZ (UKIP)
JOE BELCHER (Green)
TED WOODLEY (TUSC)
Links
Comments - 129 Responses on “Birmingham, Erdington”
  1. Robert Alden was reselected last night as Conservative candidate for Birmingham Erdington according to Rachel Maclean’s Twitter feed. (She’s the Conservative candidate for Birmingham Northfield).

  2. This seat was notionally Conservative on the shelve.d boundary proposals….and a seat that the Conservatives could ‘hold’.

  3. what happened to keely huxtable

  4. Possible Con gain?

  5. I’d be interested to know how popular Jack Dromey is with local people.

  6. “Possible Con gain?”

    If the majority was a few hundred but over 3000 is much less likely.

  7. there is always wishful thinking where anything to do with Harriet Harman is concerned, amongst Conservative supporters. The same applies to Ed Balls though of course his majority is a good deal lower.

  8. I should imagine there will be a good swing to Labour here. The selection controversy did them no favours last time, and this is the kind of place where UKIP could eat into the Tory vote.

    This is another one of those seats where the Tories are very strong but only in a minority part of the constituency, with not enough strength elsewhere to be able to win the seat.

    I think Jack Dromey’s majority will double.

  9. Local election results compared to locals 2010

    Lab 49.2% (+7.86)
    Con 35.2% (+0.66%)
    Lib 8% (-7.1%)
    Other 7.6% (-1.42%)

    Swing con to lab 3.6%

  10. Hey Gaz, thanks for that. But incase you worked those out instead of coping them from elsewhere, we actually had the local election results worked out on the old guide. It’s why I didn’t work out the results here, yet did so for alot of the other Birmingham seats. Just a headsup incase.

  11. There is no chance of the Conservatives gaining Erdington on the current boundaries. Only 1 ward is Conservative, and Edgbaston, Northfield, and even Selly Oak are better prospects.

    The original Boundary Commission proposals for Birmingham (bizarre because of not crossing ward boundaries for wards of 18,000 on average) would have made this winnable by adding a nice part of Sutton Coldfield, and subtracting a rather run down giant council estate. However this would have been reversed even if the review had gone ahead.

    The unions are very strong in Birmingham and control selections in a number of seats including this one.

  12. Err in your example above in Selly Oak only one seat is currently Tory and in Northfield Labour won 3 of the wards and lost the 4th by 2 votes. It rather suggests that Erdington is as likely to be gained as either of them.

  13. Any views on Jack Dromey and the BBC story?

  14. Gaz I’d guess you are not from Birmingham. Extrapolating from local election results is a dangerous game here – they don’t correlate well as they do in most of London, or say Leeds.

    You can learn just as much from looking at the demographics. Erdington is significantly poorer than Northfield, but both constituencies remain predominantly white. The Labour blocs is Erdington in Stockland Green and the giant Kingstanding estate have no real comparison in Northfield. These are exactly the voters who are pissed off with the council, but will vote Labour at general elections.

  15. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-25363200

    ‘ Conservative MP David Morris has written to Metropolitan Police Commissioner Sir Bernard Hogan-Howe calling on him to investigate whether Mr Dromey’s message constituted incitement to racial hatred.’

    Not surprising that the Conservatives in England are heading for a sub 83 Foot meltdown (with UKIP getting 13-15% nationally) if this this is the best they can do!

  16. LAB HOLD MAJ : 19%
    LAB 46
    CON 27
    LD 11
    UKIP 9
    GRN 3
    OTH 4

  17. What were the wards of this constituency from 1983 to 1997?

  18. I’ll hazard a guess at Kingsbury, Kingstanding & Erdington itself

  19. Strickland green, erdington and Kingsbury ward. Kingstanding was in Perry Barr until 1997 ish

  20. G is correct – Kingstanding was added in 1997 making the seat safer for Labour.

    By the way the ward is Stockland Green

  21. Yeah sorry mistyped. Slightly ironic as Kingstanding now seems to be the second best ward for the Tories here

  22. I think the Tories may slip back here. This was one of those urban seats that we did pretty well in 2010 but will not do so well in 2015. I expect Dromey to hold.

  23. Conservatives gain Kingstanding from Labour — no figures yet. Gary Sambrook elected:

    https://twitter.com/garysambrookKS

  24. Thats a very very good tory result and an extremely poor one for labour.

  25. Astounding result. I make that the first Tory win in Kingstanding since the 1960s. The first Tory gain in a council estate or a Met since January 2013 (Ian Lewis, Leasowe, Wirral). Gary Sambrook is apparently a keen young Tory and local campaigner.

  26. That’s a really good result for the Tories.

  27. This is my backyard, and I honestly didn’t know there was a by election. Honestly can’t explain how the Tories have managed to gain a deprived ward when national circumstances could be better for them. And remember, this is a ward the BNP cane close to winning a few years back.

  28. “Honestly can’t explain how the Tories have managed to gain a deprived ward when national circumstances could be better for them.”

    The Tory candidate has apparently put an enormous amount of work into the ward for many years despite being still in his early 20s.

  29. Perhaps the Labour council has made itself particularly unpopular since returning to power? It’s certainly a very good result indeed for the Tories, whatever the reason.

  30. Considering how bad the tories are at by elections, for them to win a by- election in a working class ward at a time of national unpopularity is a miracle. Awful for labour and beyond pathetic for lib dem.

  31. That link explains it a little better, but considering the turnout was only 19%, it’ll be an uphill struggle for the Tories to hold on to Kingstanding.

    I’m surprised the National Front only got 33 votes. There used to be a lot of far right activity in this seat a few years ago.

  32. The Conservatives have been getting closer in Kingstanding for some time. In local elections the traditional class basis of voting has collapsed in Birmingham. Working class council tenant Bartley Green is also Conservative, as is neighbouring Weoley (just). Meanwhile Labour are winning well-off middle class wards like Hall Green, Harborne, and Sutton Vesey for the first time ever.

    As I have commented several times beware of extrapolating this to general elections though.

    More generally we will see any reaction to the relatively new Labour administration in Birmingham at the local elections next summer. Birmingham is one of the worst hit local authorities by government withdrawal of funds and services are being cut in all directions (except Children’s Social Services for obvious reasons). There are local reasons exacerbating the squeeze which are the subject of partisan debate. I certainly wouldn’t rule out the Conservatives winning Kingstanding again.

  33. Turnout was only down 4% from May 2012

  34. With such an excellent result under his belt, I doubt we’ve heard the last of the young winner of this election. He has a good chance of being elected as the MP for Erdington in the Tory/UKIP landslide of 2020.

  35. I was thinking the same thing HH. He has dedicated himself to this area

  36. When is the winning tory next up?

  37. 2016 Countydurhamboy. John Chanin – you could argue that he simply resurrected the traditional white working class Tory vote here. Though he clearly worked hard on local issues. The large BNP vote was also absorbed. Adam – the National Front candidate had no description on the ballot due to an omission by the candidate.

  38. But the WWC Tory vote in Kingstanding was never that great – it’s apparently the first time the Tories have won the ward since the 1960s. Such an unexpected result is, almost by definition, going to be down to candidate and local issues.

  39. Up to a point. The Birmingham Post has a good longer article and the 25-year-old candidate cites the white working class and that he lives in a council house. Labour were shellshocked at the Count apparently.

  40. From what I gather, he’s the first Tory who has made an effort in that ward for a generation and he is local, unlike previous candidates and his Labour opponent.

  41. This is obviously a superb result for the Tories – though it seems likely to be very much a personal vote for the candidate rather than having wider electoral significance in terms of the constituency as a whole.
    If the class pattern of voting is collapsing in Birmingham , are we seeing a reversion to the period of Chamberlain domination when much of the working class vote there was Unionist?

  42. Well that is the way the Conservatives have to go, to counteract the impact of immigration and the expansion of the public sector middle class.

    I would note that even if there were local factors here this is another recent byelection showing movement back to the Tories from Labour. It will be interesting to see if the local elections show this to be a real trend or just noise.

  43. Another? What other examples have there been recently? The only one I can think of was that one in Nuneaton a few months back, which was clearly heavily impacted by the appalling weather on the day of poll.

    I don’t think you can say that class-based voting in Birmingham has “collapsed”. The most middle-class wards are still generally better for the Tories/Lib Dems and the most working-class ones are on aggregate strong for Labour. It’s still the underlying architecture, it’s just that there’s now more variation between different wards with similar demographics.

  44. ECB – the last one was last January, when Tory Ian Lewis gained the Leasowe estate in Merseyside. But such instances of local Tory gains are very rare.

  45. It’s also quite hard to define the white working class in a unified sense, especially outside of the south where large numbers of this group are either unemployed or in very low-paid jobs. A plumber or builder who is doing well for himself may be as much white working class as those on Benefits Street, but has little in common with them. “White Dee” from Benefits Street said this week that she is a waverer between Labour and UKIP. You could certainly not imagine her part of the WWC ever voting Tory.

  46. Good point HH.

    Labour are welcome to ‘White Dee’ and that contingent of the non-working population. Must be a large part of their core vote these days.

  47. I never been able to understand why Birmingham’s working class hasn’t fallen out if love with the Tories as much as the working class in cities like Liverpool, Manchester, Sheffield and Newcastle which are now Tory no-go areas. I know the Tories will always have a strong presence in Sutton, but they show no signs of dying out soon in the rest of the city. It even harder to explain when you consider 2 other West Midlands met boroughs are almost Tory free zones. Sandwell will more than likely become one if the Tories lose their last seat in May 22nd (although I believe they’ve been wiped out in Sandwell before in the mid-90’s and bounced back) and in Wolves, the two Tettenhall are fast become the Tories only winnable wards.

  48. Edward is right. It’s true that it seems odd that Labour should be winning Harborne (hands down in fact) and losing here. But it’s still true that the Tories’ strongest ward in this constituency is Erdington ward itself, which is the best residential area in the constituency, and that the most solidly working-class wards in Birmingham are still for the most part pretty heavily Labour.

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