Birmingham, Erdington

2015 Result:
Conservative: 10695 (30.8%)
Labour: 15824 (45.6%)
Lib Dem: 965 (2.8%)
Green: 948 (2.7%)
UKIP: 6040 (17.4%)
TUSC: 212 (0.6%)
MAJORITY: 5129 (14.8%)

Category: Safe Labour seat

Geography: West Midlands.

Main population centres:

Profile:

Politics:


Current MP
JACK DROMEY (Labour) Born 1948, Brent. Former Deputy General Secretary of the Transport and General Workers Union. First elected as MP for Birmingham Erdington in 2010. Dromey is married to Harriet Harman, MP for Camberwell and Peckham.
Past Results
2010
Con: 11592 (33%)
Lab: 14869 (42%)
LDem: 5742 (16%)
BNP: 1815 (5%)
Oth: 1528 (4%)
MAJ: 3277 (9%)
2005*
Con: 7235 (23%)
Lab: 16810 (53%)
LDem: 5027 (16%)
BNP: 1512 (5%)
Oth: 1162 (4%)
MAJ: 9575 (30%)
2001
Con: 7413 (24%)
Lab: 17375 (57%)
LDem: 3602 (12%)
UKIP: 521 (2%)
Oth: 1693 (6%)
MAJ: 9962 (33%)
1997
Con: 11107 (27%)
Lab: 23764 (59%)
LDem: 4112 (10%)
MAJ: 12657 (31%)

*There were boundary changes after 2005

Demographics
2015 Candidates
ROBERT ALDEN (Conservative) Birmingham councillor since 2006. Contested Birmingham Erdington 2010.
JACK DROMEY (Labour) See above.
ANN HOLTOM (Liberal Democrat) Contested Birmingham Erdington 2010.
ANDREW GARCARZ (UKIP)
JOE BELCHER (Green)
TED WOODLEY (TUSC)
Links
Comments - 129 Responses on “Birmingham, Erdington”
  1. As Labour were about 8% ahead in 2015 its an indication of how badly they are doing now.

    Or perhaps an indication on how the prophetic Sion Simon is viewed.

  2. When is a safe seat not a safe seat?

    Having highlighted W’ton North East and Dudley North, here is a third outlier seat in the West Midlands. Labour have held Erdington, in various forms, since 1945 – though the result in 1979 was very close.

    Locally the Conservatives usually win Erdington ward and are now competitive in Kingstanding, based on a large former council estate. Labour fight back in Tyburn and especially Stockland Green.

    But this constituency went 60% Brexit, there is a 17% UKIP vote possibly looking for a new home and lots of traditional Labour voters who may not warm to a Corbyn led Labour party.

    So this is yet another West Midlands seat which might be at risk if 2017 proves a Conservative landslide election.

  3. Plopwellian Tory,

    If you check the W’ton North East page you will see I have already mused on that seat as a long shot. It is quite similar in make up to this seat.

    On reflection Walsall South may be a seat too far. The 30%+ Asian vote – and by and large this is not the middle class Asian vote found for example in North West London – sets the bar higher for the Conservatives: though a 15% UKIP vote and 60%+ Leave vote gives them a slight glimmer of hope.

  4. The Guardian are doing a series of “embedded reports” from 6 constituencies in the run up to June 8th and Brum Erdington is one of those chosen.

    This first article gives some flavour of why I consider this seat a Conservative “long shot”.

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/may/09/erdington-general-election-id-like-to-vote-labour-but-things-arent-changing

  5. This seat seems like a crucial hold for labour. Any intelligence as to how it’s going on the ground? This seems to be the outer limit of the Tory reach in this cycle.

  6. Bookies make the Tories strong favourites here:

    Con 1/3
    Lab 7/4

    Quite surprised by that.

  7. There has been lots of media talk about this seat as a target. Not sure I’m completely convinced. Or at least I think it is a long shot target rather than a likely gain. Same goes for a few other targets in the West Mids – Wolverhampton NE, Walsall South, the West Broms seats.

  8. Jack dromey always struck me as a London lefty. Not that great a fit for this type of seat. If labour lose this they will have done disastrously.

  9. I think the bookies’ odds are at least partly informed by how well Andy Street did here in the mayoral. IIRC he carried this seat pretty comfortably.

  10. Can we be sure of that? I haven’t looked at the mayoral result in much detail but to me it looked like the Cons would have carried almost all of the obvious Lab held marginals in the region – Edgbaston, Northfield, Wolvo SW, Walsall N, Dudley N, Coventry NW, Coventry S – but didn’t do well enoufh to have carried more distant targets.

  11. Birmingham council released the ward breakdown and Simon carried Erdington. The tories came closer in Selly Oak. Figures on West Midlands Euro’s thread.

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