Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk

2015 Result:
Conservative: 19817 (36%)
Labour: 2700 (4.9%)
Lib Dem: 10294 (18.7%)
SNP: 20145 (36.6%)
Green: 631 (1.1%)
UKIP: 1316 (2.4%)
Independent: 135 (0.2%)
MAJORITY: 328 (0.6%)

Category: Ultra-marginal SNP seat

Geography:

Main population centres:

Profile:

Politics:


Current MP
CALUM KERR (SNP) Born Gala. Educated at Peebles High School. Former consultant. First elected as MP for Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk in 2015.
Past Results
2010
Con: 16555 (34%)
Lab: 5003 (10%)
LDem: 22230 (45%)
SNP: 4497 (9%)
Oth: 729 (1%)
MAJ: 5675 (12%)
2005
Con: 13092 (29%)
Lab: 7206 (16%)
LDem: 18993 (42%)
SNP: 3885 (9%)
Oth: 2212 (5%)
MAJ: 5901 (13%)
2001*
Con: 6533 (23%)
Lab: 4498 (16%)
LDem: 14044 (49%)
SNP: 2806 (10%)
Oth: 916 (3%)
MAJ: 7511 (26%)
1997
Con: 8337 (24%)
Lab: 5226 (15%)
LDem: 16243 (47%)
SNP: 3959 (11%)
Oth: 1166 (3%)
MAJ: 7906 (23%)

2015 Candidates
JOHN LAMONT (Conservative) Born 1976. Educated at Kilwinning Academy and Glasgow University. Solicitor. Contested Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk 2005, 2010. Member of the Scottish Parliament for Ettrick, Roxburgh and Berwickshire.
KENRYCK LLOYD JONES (Labour) Educated at Huddersfield University. Public affairs and policy manager.
MICHAEL MOORE (Liberal Democrat) Born 1965, Dundonald. Educated at Jedburgh Grammar School and Edinburgh University. Chartered accountant. MP for Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk 1997 to 2015. Secretary of State for Scotland 2010-2013.
PETER NEILSON (UKIP) Contested Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk 2005, Scottish European election 2009.
PAULINE STEWART (Green) Medical herbalist.
CALUM KERR (SNP) Born Gala. Educated at Peebles High School. Consultant.
JESSE RAE (Independent)
Links
Comments - 647 Responses on “Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk”
  1. Tories taking second place is very possible.

  2. (But their vote might also be undermined by pro-Labour tactical voting).

  3. Calum Kerr must be the most vulnerable SNP MP. He represents what is perhaps the most Unionist constituency in Scotland.

    Much depends on whether John Lamont stands again.

    If Kerr loses, how much would he be likely to lose by?

  4. Oh it’s a question of “by how much” rather than “who”.

    If recent Scottish polls are to be believed, the Tories are probably looking at around 45% in this seat. Comfortably enough for the seat, Conservative by 15 points.

  5. I am going to make a fairly conservative estimate that the SNP could potentially lose about 5 seats (just on the basis as Ruth Davidson said about Scotland reaching peak SNP, and on the basis that what goes up must come down). I would name my five as: BR&S, Dumfries and Galloway, Aberdeenshire West and Kincardineshire and Dunbartonshire East along with at least one Edinburgh seat.

  6. Real potential for the conservatives to squeeze unionist and lib dem voters in this area

  7. Oh, almost certain the Tories will win, @Panther. Would be a massive shock if they can’t win it.

    Also, Moore is not standing again, so I think this seat won’t be going LD again anytime in the foreseeable future — they won’t even get close.

  8. By-election in Ettrick, Roxburgh and Selkirk as John Lamont resigns his Scottish Parliamentary seat to stand for Westminster.

  9. Lamont must be very confident to be resigning before the election.

  10. Catriona Bhatia, current Scottish Borders Councillor and daughter of ex-MP for this area Sir David Steel, will be the Liberal Democrat candidate in this election.

    Her 18 year old daughter Caledonia is also standing in May’s council election.

  11. “Lamont must be very confident to be resigning before the election”

    Not surprised -the two southern seats must be pretty much nailed-on gains. I do think the idea of 12 Tory MPs in Scotland is a bit far-fetched though.

  12. This is a Tory gain. Lamont is very well known and liked, he’s turned the Holyrood equivalent into a safe heartland.

    Frankly, the three border seats are all surely sure-fire Tory gains at this point.

  13. I wonder if Calum Kerr would fight Lamonts Holyrood seat?

    It would not necessarily be a Conservative hold. When Nicol Stephen won the Kincardine & Deeside by election the first sign that the Conservatives would regain that seat at the GE was the gain of Nicol Stephens vacated safe Lib Dem Grampian Regional Council division within the constituency.

  14. Yes this is one of the most nailed-on Tory gains anywhere in the country, let alone Scotland.

    Callum Kerr seemed quite a bright MP – but there’s nothing he can do about the political tide.

  15. Bhatia is a solid LD candidate, but won’t get anywhere near winning — in fact, they should fall back here.

    Lamont will win it in a walk. I could see him getting close to 50%.

  16. Con majority 12,000.

    John Lamont will be a good addition who commands respect in the house. Definitely cabinet material I believe.

  17. A tweleve thousnd majoirty seems a bit big. No more than 5 thousand Majoirty i predict.

  18. Tories should take over 50% of the vote here. Based on the latest opinion poll I think that BT Says is around the mark here actually.

  19. BM11 is probably closer to it, though I agree that Lamont could be Scotland secretary before long.

  20. I assume he only didn’t win last time as a few misguided people thought Michael Moore could hang on v the SNP.

    Pity the Tories don’t have more PPCs like this who increase the % and vote each time.

    These last minute selections in England and Wales will no doubt result in a few Keith Best-types winning seats.

  21. The Conservatives were ahead here on the 2015 Ashcroft constituency poll when David Mundell was projected to lose his seat.

    I assume that the Moore incumbency factor may have diverted some unionist votes. Personally, I found this an extraordinary SNP Gain anyway.

  22. Moore struck me as a decent guy — and probably a better Scotland secretary than Carmichael — but there was just no way he’d hang on. I don’t think he showed any interest in standing again, either.

  23. Did you? He always struck me as one of the slimiest of the Lib Dems, but ah well.

  24. People seem to be confusing Douglas Alexander and Danny Alexander. They are unrelated, although Douglas Alexander is the brother of Wendy Alexander.

  25. I disagreed with Douglas Alexander about almost everything, but he seems to have been a fantastically hardworking local MP.

  26. Douglas Alexander did indeed seem to be a decent guy and I was sorry to see him defeated.

    Danny Alexander on the other hand did indeed seem to be a complete slime ball and his defeat was one of the few highlights of 2015.

  27. Danny Alexander was a disgrace, the fact Clegg liked him so much illustrated that the LDs judgement wasn’t that brilliant.

  28. I’m still puzzled by the dislike of Danny Alexander. He seemed a genuine guy who didn’t make a lot of headlines, or speak out both sides of his mouth every other week like Vince Cable, but knuckled down and got on with the job.

    His sole crime seems to have been agreeing to a cabinet position with those evil Tories as part of what became known as ‘the quad’. In all the times he’s come up, I don’t recall a sensible evidence-based reason being given.

    Incidentally, IIRC he was one of only 2 LD MPs to increase his number of votes in 2015. As we know, most lost large chunks, especially outside Scotland.

  29. For me he was just an overpromoted nobody, rather than a slime ball. But I suppose he was pretty close to George Osborne, and if you didn’t like Osborne, well…

  30. Polltroll

    I think you’ve hit the nail on the head actually. Added to what I said, he had a boss who was not only Tory but was actually a bit of a slimeball.

    Because they had a good working relationship and he didn’t publicly fall out with him or anything, somehow he was a slimeball not a ‘safe pair of hands’. Guilt by association.

    Had Hammond been his boss, he would still have been regarded as a LD traitor by the left, but not as strongly plus the harder right might not have minded him then.

  31. My problem with Alexander was mainly that I felt he represented the worst of the Lib Dems, strategically. Clegg should’ve sacked him early and promoted someone like Swinson: less Tory friendly, female, probably more charismatic.

  32. Danny Alexander did the job he was asked to do as well as he could with as little fuss as he could.

    The voters decided that they didn’t want Lib Dems who did that.

    It’s a little sad, to be honest. We ask politicians to put the country above party and personal ambition, and then kick them if they do it.

  33. Chris

    Your first sentence above sums him up well.

  34. By-election for the Scot Parl seat has been confirmed for the same date as the GE.

  35. Unionist parties with bookies are favorites in these constituencies
    Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine 1/5 (CON)
    Berwickshire Roxburgh Selkirk 1/6 (CON)
    Caithness Sutherland Easter Ross 10/11 (LD)
    Dumfries & Galloway 1/6 CON
    Dumfriesshire Clydesdale Tweeddale 1/6 (CON)
    Dunbartonshire East 4/6 (LD)
    Edinburgh South 6/5 (LAB)
    Edinburgh West 1/2 (LD)
    Fife North East 10/11 (LD)
    Orkney Shetland 2/7 (LD)
    Renfrewshire East 8/13 (CON)
    There are other seats where its very close with the bookies such as Sterling, Ochil & South Perthshire, Perth and North Perthshire etc.

  36. Unsurprisingly Con gain

  37. Given how the night went I assume the Tories have held (or will hold) the Scottish Parliament by-election seat which I gather also took place yesterday? Has that result come in?

  38. Yes, they held it.

  39. Just a passing thought, but given the knife-edge upon which Parliament finds itself, John Lamont’s experience in Holyrood could be an invaluable addition to the whips’ office.

  40. I do wonder if he might find himself, unusually, straight in govt – either as Scottish whip, which will now be needed with 13 members, or junior minister at the Scotland Office.

  41. The Lib Dems have just lost their deposit in a seat they held continuously from 1983 to 2015. That is an incredible downturn in fortunes for the party here.

  42. Really huge majorities of around 10,000 in two Scottish Cons seats.

  43. @POLLTROLL – I think the result in this seat is symbolic of what has happened to the Lib Dems in the last couple of years.

    With the exception of North East Fife, they are so far behind in every other constituency in Scotland. Although the Tories were wiped out in 1997, at least they were in a reasonable position to recover from a base of 15%-17%. The Lib Dems are on a base of 7%-10%

  44. Ahh wolf but that’s where FPTP comes into its own. The votes that the Scottish LDs have retained exist where they need to. They walked away with 3 gains and a very painful near miss. The Scots tories would have sold their granny for that sort of recovery in 2001 or 2005 or 2010 or 2015.

  45. Woof- it pains me to say it but I agree with Robberbutton. The LD’s should be thanking their lucky stars that things weren’t worse in Scotland.

    Generally, I’m fed up of reading on this site that XYZ party has ‘no chance’ in a particular area/ constituency going forward. Surely the recent election alone proves that things can change quickly and that the British public are becoming an increasingly volatile lot. Good for them I say…keeps me interested.

  46. I, for once, agree with Robberbutton. FPTP means you need votes in certain seats.

    That said, the biggest LD problem right now is their low base. They need to get to the point where they’re losing fewer deposits — they didn’t lose a single one in 2010 (the Tories even lost one). They need, if you’ll pardon a cliché, a rising tide to lift all boats.

  47. Until that happens, they have a ceiling of about 20 seats.

Leave a Reply

NB: Before commenting please make sure you are familiar with the Comments Policy. UKPollingReport is a site for non-partisan discussion of polls.

You are not currently logged into UKPollingReport. Registration is not compulsory, but is strongly encouraged. Either login here, or register here (commenters who have previously registered on the Constituency Guide section of the site *should* be able to use their existing login)